The Market Stability Reserve in Perspective. CEPS Special Report No. 91, October 2014

This Special Report aims to contribute to the debate on the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which was introduced by the European Commission in a legislative proposal of January 2014. The MSR would introduce a degree of supply management into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). This report is the result of various meetings with ETS-stakeholders throughout 2014. It discusses the MSR’s rationale and reviews the different options available for its design, governance and timing, as well as its consequences for the functioning of the EU ETS and the EU’s climate and energy policy.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Estructura de la bolsa española e introducción del mercado de activos derivados sobre el IBEX-35

[ES] La controversia acerca de si la implantación y negociación de activos derivados afecta a la estabilidad de los respectivos mercados de contado perdura desde hace más de dos décadas. En este trabajo abordamos la problemática anterior desde una nueva perspectiva. Concretamente, analizamos el impacto que sobre la estructura del mercado bursátil ha podido tener la introducción de los mercados de activos derivados sobre el IBEX-35. Para ello, definimos e identificamos la estructura del mercado bursátil para el periodo de estudio, y, a continuación, analizamos el efecto que sobre la misma ha tenido la aparición de los nuevos mercados de derivados. Nuestros resultados son consistentes con los de otros autores, ya que si bien no se ha producido un cambio generalizado y substancial en la estructura del mercado bursátil, la introducción de los nuevos mercados sí parece que ha afectado a un número reducido de empresas incluidas en el IBEX-35.

Strategic positioning and grand strategies for high-technology SMEs

Firm size is found to affect strategic decisions significantly, whereas technology and market stability stimulate product development and innovation.

Franchisor-franchisee relationship and performance: influence of personality traits, entrepreneurial drive, and time of relationship

A literatura em franchising tem virtualmente ignorado o papel de aspectos psicologicos nos resultados interorganizacionais das empresas, a despeito de sua influencia nos resultados das organizações e da qualidade de relacionamento. Este estudo, portanto, tem por objetivo analisar a influência da personalidade e do potencial empreendedor na qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho financeiro na relação franqueador-franqueado, ao longo do tempo, sob a perspectiva dos franqueados. Este estudo analisa também o papel do tempo de relacionamento sobre a qualidade de relacionamento e o desempenho financeiro. Foi utilizado neste estudo um questionário de auto-preenchimento, enviado por e-mail, com o objetivo de recolher dados de uma amostra de 342 franqueados de 3 redes de franquias. A personalidade foi mensurada por meio dos “Cinco Grandes” traços de personalidade (escalas IPIP-B5): extroversão, agradabilidade, consciencia, estabilidade emocional e imaginação. O potencial empreendedor foi mensurado por meio do índice CEI (Carland Entrepreneurship Index). A qualidade do relacionamento foi estruturada como um constructo de segunda ordem, composto por 23 itens (incorporando confiança, comprometimento e satisfação com o relacionamento), e o desempenho financeiro foi representado por meio de uma escala de mensuração de crescimento de vendas e de rentabilidade. O tempo de relacionamento foi medido por meio dos meses de relacionamento entre franqueado e franqueador. As hipoteses foram testadas por meio de modelagem por equações estruturais, com a utilização do método de mínimos quadrados parciais (PLS), análise de regressão e análise de médias. Três das cinco dimensões da personalidade apresentaram o efeito previsto sobre as variáveis qualidade do relacionamento – agradabilidade (positivamente), estabilidade emocional (positivamente), e imaginação (positivamente). O desempenho financeiro foi influenciado, como previsto por consciência (positivamente), estabilidade emocional (positivamente), e imaginação (positivamente). Como esperado, a qualidade do relacionamento apresentou efeito positivo e significativo em relação ao desempenho financeiro. O potencial empreendedor apresentou o efeito positivo previsto apenas sobre desempenho. O tempo de relacionamento teve o efeito positivo esperado sobre o relacionamento franqueador-franqueado, em relação à qualidade do relacionamento e o desempenho financeiro, mas as diferenças entre as fases de relacionamento propostas foram apenas parcialmente confirmadas, uma vez que em somente duas fases (rotina e estabilização) a análise de médias mostrou diferenças significativas. Os resultados indicam que a personalidade influencia a qualidade de relacionamento e o desempenho, mas a meneira pela qual isso ocorre é diferente no contexto brasileiro, onde esta pesquisa foi realizada, dos achados da pesquisa conduzida na Austrália, sugerindo que fatores como cultura e estabilidade de mercado podem ter influencia sobre a relação entre traços de personalidade e qualidade de relacionamento, e traços de personalidade e desempenho financeiro. O potencial empreendedor parece influenciar positivamente o desempenho do franqueado, mas a sua influência não foi significativa em relação à qualidade do relacionamento. Os resultados também indicam a importância do tempo no desenvolvimento da qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho. Além disso, os relacionamentos de longo prazo estão relacionados a melhores avaliações de qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho financeiros por parte dos franqueados. As limitações do trabalho e sugestões para estudos futuros também são discutidos.

Suposição de normalidade e gestão de risco: uma aplicação do var paramétrico via teste de aderência

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sanctions and public enforcement of insider trading laws in Europe

The recent financial crisis triggered an increasing demand for financial regulation to counteract the potential negative economic effects of the evermore complex operations and instruments available on financial markets. As a result, insider trading regulation counts amongst the relatively recent but particularly active regulation battles in Europe and overseas. Claims for more transparency and equitable securities markets proliferate, ranging from concerns about investor protection to global market stability. The internationalization of the world’s securities market has challenged traditional notions of regulation and enforcement. Considering that insider trading is currently forbidden all over Europe, this study follows a law and economics approach in identifying how this prohibition should be enforced. More precisely, the study investigates first whether criminal law is necessary under all circumstances to enforce insider trading; second, if it should be introduced at EU level. This study provides evidence of law and economics theoretical logic underlying the legal mechanisms that guide sanctioning and public enforcement of the insider trading prohibition by identifying optimal forms, natures and types of sanctions that effectively induce insider trading deterrence. The analysis further aims to reveal the economic rationality that drives the potential need for harmonization of criminal enforcement of insider trading laws within the European environment by proceeding to a comparative analysis of the current legislations of height selected Member States. This work also assesses the European Union’s most recent initiative through a critical analysis of the proposal for a Directive on criminal sanctions for Market Abuse. Based on the conclusions drawn from its close analysis, the study takes on the challenge of analyzing whether or not the actual European public enforcement of the laws prohibiting insider trading is coherent with the theoretical law and economics recommendations, and how these enforcement practices could be improved.

La réforme Dodd-Frank des produits dérivés de gré à gré : vers un modèle mondial?

Suite à la crise financière de 2008 les pays du G20 se sont interrogés sur la transparence des marchés, la stabilité du système et une façon de réguler les risques posés par le nouvel environnement économique. Les produits dérivés de gré à gré ont été identifiés et des engagements ont été pris en faveur de nouvelles régulations des dérivés de gré à gré et la gestion des risques sous-jacents. Les régulateurs ont donc adopté chacun à leur tour un cadre législatif régulant les dérivés de gré à gré tout en déployant un effort international d'harmonisation et de reconnaissance des contreparties assujetties à des régimes équivalents. Les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières ont publié des projets de règlements. Nous nous interrogerons sur ce nouveau cadre réglementaire des dérivés de gré à gré élaboré par les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières, prenant en considération les spécificités canadiennes et les acteurs actifs sur leur territoire. Notre étude traite de ces projets de règlements et de la difficulté d'encadrer les marchés des dérivés de gré à gré qui par définition ne comportent pas de plateformes de négociation ou de lieu géographique et de frontières mais se caractérisent surtout par le lien contractuel entre les parties et l'identification de ces parties. L'élaboration d'un nouveau cadre pour les dérivés de gré à gré qui régule les transactions transfrontières semble très délicat à traiter et les possibles conflits et chevauchements de lois seront inévitables. Confrontés à des définitions divergentes de contreparties locales, les parties à une opération seront condamnées à un risque de qualification en vertu des règlements nationaux sur les dérivés de gré à gré. Une concertation pourrait être renforcée et la détermination de l'autorité compétente ainsi que les concepts de contreparties locales, succursales ou filiales pourraient être harmonisés.

Financial regulatory transparency: new data and implications for EU policy. Bruegel Policy Brief 2015/20, December 2015

International financial institutions have promoted financial regulatory transparency, or the publication by supervisors of financial industry data. Financial regulatory transparency enhances market stability and increases democratic legitimacy. • We introduce a new index of financial regulatory data transparency: the FRT Index. It measures how countries report to international financial institutions basic macroprudential data about their financial systems.The Index covers 68 high-income and emerging-market economies over 22 years (1990-2011). • We find a number of striking trends over this period. European Union members are generally more opaque than other high-income countries.This finding is especially relevant given efforts to create an EU capital markets union. • Globally, financial regulatory data transparency has increased. However, there is considerable variation. Some countries have become significantlymore transparent, while others have become much more opaque. Reporting tends to decline during financial crises. • We propose that the EU institutions take on a greater role in coordinating and possibly enforcing reporting of bank and non-bank institution data. Similar to the United States, a reporting requirement should be part of any EU general deposit insurance scheme.

La réforme Dodd-Frank des produits dérivés de gré à gré : vers un modèle mondial?

Suite à la crise financière de 2008 les pays du G20 se sont interrogés sur la transparence des marchés, la stabilité du système et une façon de réguler les risques posés par le nouvel environnement économique. Les produits dérivés de gré à gré ont été identifiés et des engagements ont été pris en faveur de nouvelles régulations des dérivés de gré à gré et la gestion des risques sous-jacents. Les régulateurs ont donc adopté chacun à leur tour un cadre législatif régulant les dérivés de gré à gré tout en déployant un effort international d'harmonisation et de reconnaissance des contreparties assujetties à des régimes équivalents. Les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières ont publié des projets de règlements. Nous nous interrogerons sur ce nouveau cadre réglementaire des dérivés de gré à gré élaboré par les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières, prenant en considération les spécificités canadiennes et les acteurs actifs sur leur territoire. Notre étude traite de ces projets de règlements et de la difficulté d'encadrer les marchés des dérivés de gré à gré qui par définition ne comportent pas de plateformes de négociation ou de lieu géographique et de frontières mais se caractérisent surtout par le lien contractuel entre les parties et l'identification de ces parties. L'élaboration d'un nouveau cadre pour les dérivés de gré à gré qui régule les transactions transfrontières semble très délicat à traiter et les possibles conflits et chevauchements de lois seront inévitables. Confrontés à des définitions divergentes de contreparties locales, les parties à une opération seront condamnées à un risque de qualification en vertu des règlements nationaux sur les dérivés de gré à gré. Une concertation pourrait être renforcée et la détermination de l'autorité compétente ainsi que les concepts de contreparties locales, succursales ou filiales pourraient être harmonisés.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countriesw

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in most cases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation.

Growth and Euro Area Stability: The Double Dividend of a Deepened European Single Market for Services. Bertelsmann Stiftung Background Note 26 June 2015

The European Commission’s recent single market initiatives have a second important benefit beyond growth that is often overlooked: Deepening the Single Market for goods and services can also reduce imbalances in the euro area and limit its vulnerability to crises. A further integration of the Single Market thus provides a double dividend of growth and stability. This is the main issue addressed in this background note.

Power system stability enhancement in a deregulated environment using FACTS devices

In deregulated versions of free-market electricity, producers will be free to send power along other utilities. The price of power strongly depends and fluctuates according to mutual benefit index of both supplier and consumer. In such a situation, strong interaction among utilities may cause instabilities in the system. As the frequency of market-based dispatch increases market forces tend to destabilize the stable system dynamics depending on the value of Ks/τλ(market dependent parameter) ratio. This tends to destabilize the coupled dynamics. The implementation of TCSC can effectively damp the inter area modes of oscillations of the coupled market system.

Rough Fuzzy Control of SVC for Power System Stability Enhancement

Modern power systems have become more complex due to the growth in load demand, the installation of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) devices and the integration of new HVDC links into existing AC grids. On the other hand, the introduction of the deregulated and unbundled power market operational mechanism, together with present changes in generation sources including connections of large renewable energy generation with intermittent feature in nature, have further increased the complexity and uncertainty for power system operation and control. System operators and engineers have to confront a series of technical challenges from the operation of currently interconnected power systems. Among the many challenges, how to evaluate the steady state and dynamic behaviors of existing interconnected power systems effectively and accurately using more powerful computational analysis models and approaches becomes one of the key issues in power engineering. The traditional computing techniques have been widely used in various fields for power system analysis with varying degrees of success. The rapid development of computational intelligence, such as neural networks, fuzzy systems and evolutionary computation, provides tools and opportunities to solve the complex technical problems in power system planning, operation and control.