Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Phytoplankton is at the base of the marine food web. Its carbon fixation, the net primary productivity (NPP), sustains most living marine resources. In regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), natural fluctuations of NPP have large impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries. The capacity to predict these natural variations would provide an important asset to science-based management approaches but remains unexplored yet. In this paper, we demonstrate that natural variations of NPP in the tropical Pacific can be forecasted several years in advance beyond the physical environment, whereas those of sea surface temperature are limited to 1 y. These results open previously unidentified perspectives for the future development of science-based management techniques of marine ecosystems based on multiyear forecasts of NPP.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Terrigenous input and marine productivity for the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean based on lipid biomarkers

In this study, we present a new multiproxy data set of terrigenous input, marine productivity and sea surface temperature (SST) from 52 surface sediment samples collected along E-W transects in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Allochtonous terrigenous input was characterized by the distribution of plant wax n-alkanes and soil-derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). 230Th-normalized burial rates of both compound groups were highest close to the potential sources in Australia and New Zealand and are strongly related to lithogenic contents, indicating common sources and transport. Detection of both long-chain n-alkanes and brGDGTs at the most remote sites in the open ocean strongly suggests a primarily eolian transport mechanism to at least 110°W, i.e. by prevailing westerly winds. Two independent organic SST proxies were used, the UK'37 based on long-chain alkenones, and the TEX86 based on isoprenoid GDGTs. Both, UK'37 and TEX86 indices show robust relationships with temperature over a temperature range between 0.5 and 20°C, likely implying different seasonal and regional imprints on the temperature signal. While alkenone-based temperature estimates reliably reflect modern SST even at the low temperature end, large temperature residuals are observed for the polar ocean using the TEX86 index. 230Th-normalized burial rates of alkenones are highest close to the Subtropical Front and are positively related to lithogenic fluxes throughout the study area. In contrast, highest isoGDGT burial south of the Antarctic Polar Front is not related with dust flux but may be largely controlled by diatom blooms, and thus high opal fluxes during austral summer.

Role of marine biology in glacial-interglacial CO2 cycles

It has been hypothesized that changes in the marine biological pump caused a major portion of the glacial reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide by 80 to 100 parts per million through increased iron fertilization of marine plankton, increased ocean nutrient content or utilization, or shifts in dominant plankton types. We analyze sedimentary records of marine productivity at the peak and the middle of the last glacial cycle and show that neither changes in nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean nor shifts in plankton dominance explain the CO2 drawdown. Iron fertilization and associated mechanisms can be responsible for no more than half the observed drawdown.

Response of marine palynomorphs to Neogene climate cooling in the Iceland Sea, ODP Hole 151-907A

The present study on ODP Leg 151 Hole 907A combines a detailed analysis of marine palynomorphs (dinoflagellate cysts, prasinophytes, and acritarchs) and a low-resolution alkenone-based sea-surface temperature (SST) record for the interval between 14.5 and 2.5 Ma, and allows to investigate the relationship between palynomorph assemblages and the paleoenvironmental evolution of the Iceland Sea. A high marine productivity is indicated in the Middle Miocene, and palynomorphs and SSTs both mirror the subsequent long-term Neogene climate deterioration. The diverse Middle Miocene palynomorph assemblages clearly diminish towards the impoverished assemblages of the Late Pliocene; parallel with a somewhat gradual decrease of SSTs being as high as 20 °C at ~13.5 Ma to around 8 °C at ~3 Ma. Superimposed, palynomorph assemblages not only reflect Middle to Late Miocene climate variability partly coinciding with the short-lived global Miocene isotope events (Mi-events), but also the initiation of a proto-thermohaline circulation across the Middle Miocene Climate Transition, which led to increased meridionality in the Nordic Seas. Last occurrences of species cluster during three events in the Late Miocene to Early Pliocene and are ascribed to the progressive strengthening and freshening of the proto-East Greenland Current towards modern conditions. A significant high latitude cooling between 6.5 and 6 Ma is depicted by the supraregional "Decahedrella event" coeval with lowest Miocene productivity and a SST decline. In the Early Pliocene, a transient warming is accompanied by surface water stratification and increased productivity that likely reflects a high latitude response to the global biogenic bloom. The succeeding crash in palynomorph accumulation, and a subsequent interval virtually barren of marine palynomorphs may be attributed to enhanced bottom water oxygenation and substantial sea ice cover, and indicates that conditions seriously affecting marine productivity in the Iceland Sea were already established well before the marked expansion of the Greenland Ice Sheet at 3.3 Ma.

Dinoflagellate cysts and pollen distribution of marine surface sediments off West Africa

An organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst analysis was carried out on 53 surface sediment samples from West Africa (17-6°N) to obtain insight in the relationship between their spatial distribution and hydrological conditions in the upper water column as well as marine productivity in the study area. Multivariate analysis of the dinoflagellate cyst relative abundances and environmental parameters of the water column shows that sea-surface temperature, salinity, marine productivity and bottom water oxygen are the factors that relate significantly to the distribution patterns of individual species in the region. The composition of cyst assemblages and dinoflagellate cyst concentrations allows the identification of four hydrographic regimes; 1) the northern regime between 17 and 14°N characterized by high productivity associated with seasonal coastal upwelling, 2) the southern regime between 12 and 6°N associated with high-nutrient waters influenced by river discharge 3) the intermediate regime between 14 and 12°N influenced mainly by seasonal coastal upwelling additionally associated with fluvial input of terrestrial nutrients and 4) the offshore regime characterized by low chlorophyll-a concentrations in upper waters and high bottom water oxygen concentrations. Our data show that cysts of Polykrikos kofoidii, Selenopemphix quanta, Dubridinium spp., Echinidinium species, cysts of Protoperidinium monospinum and Spiniferites pachydermus are the best proxies to reconstruct the boundary between the NE trade winds and the monsoon winds in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean. The association of Bitectatodinium spongium, Lejeunecysta oliva, Quinquecuspis concreta, Selenopemphix nephroides, Trinovantedinium applanatum can be used to reconstruct past river outflow variations within this region.

The Marine Resources Experiment Program (MAREX) : report of the Ocean Color Science Working Group.

Item 830-C

The importance of marine subsidies for terrestrial consumers in coastal Peru

The Peruvian coast is one the best examples of cross-ecosystem food web exchanges, in which resources from one of the richest marine ecosystems subsidize consumers in one of the driest deserts on Earth. Marine subsidies are resources that originate in the marine ecosystem, and that contribute to increase the density of consumers in the recipient ecosystem. I examined the effects of marine subsidies on animal populations in the Peruvian coastal desert. ^ I combined several approaches to study the linkages between marine resources and terrestrial consumers, such as surveying the spatial distribution and estimating the relative abundance of terrestrial consumers, studying the diet of geckos and lizards through stomach content analyses, and examining the desert food web with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses. ^ I found that the distribution and diet of desert consumers were tightly coupled to the availability of marine subsidies. I revealed linkages along two pathways of nutrient fluxes: tidal action that washes ashore macroalgae and cadavers of marine organisms, and animal transport in places where pinnipeds and seabirds congregate for reproduction. In the first pathway, intertidal algivivores made marine resources available to terrestrial consumers by moving between the intertidal and supratidal zone. The relative contribution of terrestrial and algal carbon sources varied among terrestrial consumers, because scorpions assimilated a lower proportion of energy from macroalgae than did geckos and solifuges. In the second pathway, I found that pinniped colonies influenced the diet of desert consumers, and contributed to support large populations of lizards and geckos. By combining field observations, and stomach and stable isotope analyses, I constructed a simplified food web for a large sea lion colony, showing the number of trophic levels that originate from pinniped-derived nutrients. ^ My study demonstrates the enormous importance of marine resources for the diet of desert consumers. The near absence of rainfall along the Peruvian coast promotes an extreme dependence of terrestrial consumers on marine resources, and causes permanent food web effects that are affected by temporal variability in marine productivity, rather then temporal patterns of desert plant growth. ^

The importance of marine subsidies for terrestrial consumers in coastal Peru

The Peruvian coast is one the best examples of cross-ecosystem food web exchanges, in which resources from one of the richest marine ecosystems subsidize consumers in one of the driest deserts on Earth. Marine subsidies are resources that originate in the marine ecosystem, and that contribute to increase the density of consumers in the recipient ecosystem. I examined the effects of marine subsidies on animal populations in the Peruvian coastal desert. I combined several approaches to study the linkages between marine resources and terrestrial consumers, such as surveying the spatial distribution and estimating the relative abundance of terrestrial consumers, studying the diet of geckos and lizards through stomach content analyses, and examining the desert food web with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses. I found that the distribution and diet of desert consumers were tightly coupled to the availability of marine subsidies. I revealed linkages along two pathways of nutrient fluxes: tidal action that washes ashore macroalgae and cadavers of marine organisms, and animal transport in places where pinnipeds and seabirds congregate for reproduction. In the first pathway, intertidal algivivores made marine resources available to terrestrial consumers by moving between the intertidal and supratidal zone. The relative contribution of terrestrial and algal carbon sources varied among terrestrial consumers, because scorpions assimilated a lower proportion of energy from macroalgae than did geckos and solifuges. In the second pathway, I found that pinniped colonies influenced the diet of desert consumers, and contributed to support large populations of lizards and geckos. By combining field observations, and stomach and stable isotope analyses, I constructed a simplified food web for a large sea lion colony, showing the number of trophic levels that originate from pinniped-derived nutrients. My study demonstrates the enormous importance of marine resources for the diet of desert consumers. The near absence of rainfall along the Peruvian coast promotes an extreme dependence of terrestrial consumers on marine resources, and causes permanent food web effects that are affected by temporal variability in marine productivity, rather then temporal patterns of desert plant growth.

Coral Remote Sensing Workshop: Proceedings and Recommendations, 17-18 September, Sheraton, Brickell Ave, Miami FL

Coral reefs exist in warm, clear, and relatively shallow marine waters worldwide. These complex assemblages of marine organisms are unique, in that they support highly diverse, luxuriant, and essentially self-sustaining ecosystems in otherwise nutrient-poor and unproductive waters. Coral reefs are highly valued for their great beauty and for their contribution to marine productivity. Coral reefs are favorite destinations for recreational diving and snorkeling, as well as commercial and recreational fishing activities. The Florida Keys reef tract draws an estimated 2 million tourists each year, contributing nearly $800 million to the economy. However, these reef systems represent a very delicate ecological balance, and can be easily damaged and degraded by direct or indirect human contact. Indirect impacts from human activity occurs in a number of different forms, including runoff of sediments, nutrients, and other pollutants associated with forest harvesting, agricultural practices, urbanization, coastal construction, and industrial activities. Direct impacts occur through overfishing and other destructive fishing practices, mining of corals, and overuse of many reef areas, including damage from souvenir collection, boat anchoring, and diver contact. In order to protect and manage coral reefs within U.S. territorial waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has been directed to establish and maintain a system of national marine sanctuaries and reserves, and to monitor the condition of corals and other marine organisms within these areas. To help carry out this mandate the NOAA Coastal Services Center convened a workshop in September, 1996, to identify current and emerging sensor technologies, including satellite, airborne, and underwater systems with potential application for detecting and monitoring corals. For reef systems occurring within depths of 10 meters or less (Figure 1), mapping location and monitoring the condition of corals can be accomplished through use of aerial photography combined with diver surveys. However, corals can exist in depths greater than 90 meters (Figure 2), well below the limits of traditional optical imaging systems such as aerial or surface photography or videography. Although specialized scuba systems can allow diving to these depths, the thousands of square kilometers included within these management areas make diver surveys for deeper coral monitoring impractical. For these reasons, NOAA is investigating satellite and airborne sensor systems, as well as technologies which can facilitate the location, mapping, and monitoring of corals in deeper waters. The following systems were discussed as having potential application for detecting, mapping, and assessing the condition of corals. However, no single system is capable of accomplishing all three of these objectives under all depths and conditions within which corals exist. Systems were evaluated for their capabilities, including advantages and disadvantages, relative to their ability to detect and discriminate corals under a variety of conditions. (PDF contains 55 pages)

Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM)

This paper presents the results of the study on the Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM). The data collected under the North Arabian Sea Environment and Ecosystem Research (NASEER) programme and World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) has been used in the study. Study of the Arabian Sea water masses is most significant in understanding marine productivity and monsoonal reversal features. Analysis of the data shows that the Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM) can be found between 25.8 to 26.0 Sigma Theta surfaces. ASSM originates from the south and south east. It is inferred from the results that the salt content of the ASSM varies during different seasons. Appreciable mixing of Arabian Sea salinity minima is observed over Murray Ridge.

Diet of auklet chicks in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska: similarity among islands, interspecies overlap, and relationships to ocean climate

Seabirds are effective samplers of the marine environment, and can be used to measure resource partitioning among species and sites via food loads destined for chicks. We examined the composition, overlap, and relationships to changing climate and oceanography of 3,216 food loads from Least, Crested, and Whiskered Auklets (Aethia pusilla, A. cristatella, A. pygmaea) breeding in Alaska during 1994–2006. Meals comprised calanoid copepods (Neocalanus spp.) and euphausiids (Thysanoessa spp.) that reflect secondary marine productivity, with no difference among Buldir, Kiska, and Kasatochi islands across 585 km of the Aleutian Islands. Meals were very similar among species (mean Least–Crested Auklet overlap C = 0.68; Least–Whiskered Auklet overlap C = 0.96) and among sites, indicating limited partitioning of prey resources for auklets feeding chicks. The biomass of copepods and euphausiids in Least and Crested Auklet food loads was related negatively to the summer (June–July–August) North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, while in Whiskered Auklet food loads, this was negatively related to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific Decadal Oscillation, both of which track basin-wide sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found a significant quadratic relationship between the biomass of calanoid copepods in Least Auklet food loads at all three study sites and summer (June–July) SST, with maximal copepod biomass between 3–6°C (r 2 = 0.71). Outside this temperature range, zooplankton becomes less available to auklets through delayed development. Overall, our results suggest that auklets are able to buffer climate-mediated bottom-up forcing of demographic parameters like productivity, as the composition of chick meals has remained constant over the course of our study.