Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results

In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

Internet usage, internet intensity and international sales performance SME's : a structural model approach

There has been much written about the Internet’s potential to enhance international market growth opportunities for SME’s. However, the literature is vague as to how Internet usage and the application of Internet marketing also known as Internet marketing intensity has an impact on firm international market growth. This paper examines the level and role of the Internet in the international operations of a sample of 218 Australian SMEs with international customers. This study shows evidence of a statistical relationship between Internet usage and Internet marketing intensity, which in turn leads to international market growth, in terms of increased sales from new customers in new countries, new customers in existing countries and from existing customers.

A hierarchical structural model of assessing innovation and project performance

Research in construction innovation highlights construction industry as having many barriers and resistance to innovations and suggests that it needs champions. A hierarchical structural model is presented, to assess the impact of the role of the project manager (PM) on the levels of innovation and project performance. The model adopts the structural equation modelling technique and uses the survey data collected from PMs and project team members working for general contractors in Singapore. The model fits well to the observed data, accounting for 24%, 37% and 49% of the variance in championing behaviour, the level of innovation and project performance, respectively. The results of this study show the importance of the championing role of PMs in construction innovation. However, in order to increase their effectiveness, such a role should be complemented by their competency and professionalism, tactical use of influence tactics, and decision authority. Moreover, senior management should provide adequate resources and a sustained support to innovation and create a conducive environment or organizational culture that nurtures and facilitates the PM’s role in the construction project as a champion of innovation.

Towards the Development of a Functional-Structural model for Macadamia

Towards the Development of a Functional-Structural model for Macadamia.

Structural model for the Cu-B site of dopamine beta-hydroxylase: Crystal structure of a copper(II) complex showing N3OS coordination with an axial sulfur ligation

A copper(II) complex containing a NSO-donor Schiff base and NN-donor 2,2'-bipyridine has been prepared and structurally characterized. The square pyramidal complex with an axial sulfur ligation is a structural model for the CUB site of dopamine-hydroxylase in its oxidized form. The copper(II) complex is catalytically active in the oxidation of ascorbic acid by dioxygen mediated by a copper(I) species which is proposed to have a four-coordinate structure with a N3S coordination geometry.

Stochastic Structural Model of Rock and Soil Aggregates by Continuum-Based Discrete Element Method

This paper first presents a stochastic structural model to describe the random geometrical features of rock and soil aggregates. The stochastic structural model uses mixture ratio, rock size and rock shape to construct the microstructures of aggregates,and introduces two types of structural elements (block element and jointed element) and three types of material elements (rock element, soil element, and weaker jointed element)for this microstructure. Then, continuum-based discrete element method is used to study the deformation and failure mechanism of rock and soil aggregate through a series of loading tests. It is found that the stress-strain curve of rock and soil aggregates is nonlinear, and the failure is usually initialized from weaker jointed elements. Finally, some factors such as mixture ratio, rock size and rock shape are studied in detail. The numerical results are in good agreement with in situ test. Therefore, current model is effective for simulating the mechanical behaviors of rock and soil aggregates.

SteelConverter and Caltech VirtualShaker: Rapid Nonlinear Cloud-Based Structural Model Conversion and Analysis

STEEL, the Caltech created nonlinear large displacement analysis software, is currently used by a large number of researchers at Caltech. However, due to its complexity, lack of visualization tools (such as pre- and post-processing capabilities) rapid creation and analysis of models using this software was difficult. SteelConverter was created as a means to facilitate model creation through the use of the industry standard finite element solver ETABS. This software allows users to create models in ETABS and intelligently convert model information such as geometry, loading, releases, fixity, etc., into a format that STEEL understands. Models that would take several days to create and verify now take several hours or less. The productivity of the researcher as well as the level of confidence in the model being analyzed is greatly increased.

It has always been a major goal of Caltech to spread the knowledge created here to other universities. However, due to the complexity of STEEL it was difficult for researchers or engineers from other universities to conduct analyses. While SteelConverter did help researchers at Caltech improve their research, sending SteelConverter and its documentation to other universities was less than ideal. Issues of version control, individual computer requirements, and the difficulty of releasing updates made a more centralized solution preferred. This is where the idea for Caltech VirtualShaker was born. Through the creation of a centralized website where users could log in, submit, analyze, and process models in the cloud, all of the major concerns associated with the utilization of SteelConverter were eliminated. Caltech VirtualShaker allows users to create profiles where defaults associated with their most commonly run models are saved, and allows them to submit multiple jobs to an online virtual server to be analyzed and post-processed. The creation of this website not only allowed for more rapid distribution of this tool, but also created a means for engineers and researchers with no access to powerful computer clusters to run computationally intensive analyses without the excessive cost of building and maintaining a computer cluster.

In order to increase confidence in the use of STEEL as an analysis system, as well as verify the conversion tools, a series of comparisons were done between STEEL and ETABS. Six models of increasing complexity, ranging from a cantilever column to a twenty-story moment frame, were analyzed to determine the ability of STEEL to accurately calculate basic model properties such as elastic stiffness and damping through a free vibration analysis as well as more complex structural properties such as overall structural capacity through a pushover analysis. These analyses showed a very strong agreement between the two softwares on every aspect of each analysis. However, these analyses also showed the ability of the STEEL analysis algorithm to converge at significantly larger drifts than ETABS when using the more computationally expensive and structurally realistic fiber hinges. Following the ETABS analysis, it was decided to repeat the comparisons in a software more capable of conducting highly nonlinear analysis, called Perform. These analyses again showed a very strong agreement between the two softwares in every aspect of each analysis through instability. However, due to some limitations in Perform, free vibration analyses for the three story one bay chevron brace frame, two bay chevron brace frame, and twenty story moment frame could not be conducted. With the current trend towards ultimate capacity analysis, the ability to use fiber based models allows engineers to gain a better understanding of a building’s behavior under these extreme load scenarios.

Following this, a final study was done on Hall’s U20 structure [1] where the structure was analyzed in all three softwares and their results compared. The pushover curves from each software were compared and the differences caused by variations in software implementation explained. From this, conclusions can be drawn on the effectiveness of each analysis tool when attempting to analyze structures through the point of geometric instability. The analyses show that while ETABS was capable of accurately determining the elastic stiffness of the model, following the onset of inelastic behavior the analysis tool failed to converge. However, for the small number of time steps the ETABS analysis was converging, its results exactly matched those of STEEL, leading to the conclusion that ETABS is not an appropriate analysis package for analyzing a structure through the point of collapse when using fiber elements throughout the model. The analyses also showed that while Perform was capable of calculating the response of the structure accurately, restrictions in the material model resulted in a pushover curve that did not match that of STEEL exactly, particularly post collapse. However, such problems could be alleviated by choosing a more simplistic material model.

On how structural model variability influence transonic aeroelasticity stability.

This paper considers the ways in which structural model parameter variability can in?uence aeroelastic stability. Previous work on formulating the stability calculation (with the Euler equations providing the aerodynamic predictions) is exploited to use Monte Carlo, Interval and Perturbation calculations to allow this question to be investigated. Three routes are identi?ed. The ?rst involves variable normal mode frequencies only. The second involves normal mode frequencies and mode shapes. Finally, the third, in addition to normal mode frequencies and mode shapes, also includes their in?uence on the static equilibrium. Previous work has suggested only considering route 1, which allows signi?cant gains in computational e?ciency if reduced order models can be built for the aerodynamics. However, results in the current paper show that neglecting route 2 can give misleading results for the ?utter onset prediction.

How Structural Model Variability Influences Transonic Aeroelastic Stability

This paper considers the ways in which structural model parameter variability can influence aeroelastic stability. Previous work on formulating the stability calculation (with the Euler equations providing the aerodynamic predictions) is exploited to use Monte Carlo, interval, and perturbation calculations to allow this question to be investigated. Three routes are identified. The first involves variable normal-mode frequencies only. The second involves normal-mode frequencies and shapes. Finally, the third, in addition to normal-mode frequencies and shapes, also includes their influence on the static equilibrium. Previous work has suggested only considering the first route, which allows significant gains in computational efficiency if reduced-order models can be built for the aerodynamics. However, results in the current paper show that neglecting the mode-shape variation can give misleading results for the flutter-onset prediction, complicating the development of reduced aerodynamic models for variability analysis.

Risk taking for oneself and others: a structural model approach

Economic theory makes no predictions about social factors affecting decisions under risk. We examine situations in which a decision maker decides for herself and another person under conditions of payoff equality, and compare them to individual decisions. By estimating a structural model, we find that responsibility leaves utility curvature unaffected, but accentuates the subjective distortion of very small and very large probabilities for both gains and losses. We also find that responsibility reduces loss aversion, but that these results only obtain under some specific definitions of the latter. These results serve to generalize and reconcile some of the still largely contradictory findings in the literature. They also have implications for financial agency, which we discuss.

On non-ideal simple portal frame structural model: Experimental results under a non-ideal excitation

We present measurements of the non-linear oscillations of a portal frame foundation for a non-ideal motor. We consider a three-time redundant structure with two columns, clamped in their bases and a horizontal beam. An electrical unbalanced motor is mounted at mid span of the beam. Two non-linear phenomena are studied: a) mode saturation and energy transfer between modes; b) interaction between high amplitude motions of the structure and the rotation regime of a real limited power motor. The dynamic characteristics of the structure were chosen to have one-to-two internal resonance between the anti-symmetrical mode (sway motions) and the first symmetrical mode natural frequencies. As the excitation frequency reaches near resonance conditions with the 2nd natural frequency, the amplitude of this mode grows up to a certain level and then it saturates. The surplus energy pumped into the system is transferred to the sway mode, which experiences a sudden increase in its amplitude. Energy is transformed from low amplitude high frequency motion into high amplitude low frequency motion. Such a transformation is potentially dangerous.We consider the fact that real motors, such as the one used in this study, have limited power output. In this case, this energy source is said to be non-ideal, in contrast to the ideal source whose amplitude and frequency are independent of the motion of the structure. Our experimental research detected the Sommerfeld Effect: as the motor accelerates to reach near resonant conditions, a considerable part of its output energy is consumed to generate large amplitude motions of the structure and not to increase its own angular speed. For certain parameters of the system, the motor can get stuck at resonance not having enough power to reach higher rotation regimes. If some more power is available, jump phenomena may occur from near resonance to considerably higher motor speed regimes, no stable motions being possible between these two.