Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

Managing risk in cross-sector R&D collaborations : lessons from an international case study

Cross‐sector collaborations to perform R&D are on the increase, but they do involve various risks for each of the partners. Project risks in such ventures are explored through a case study, a successful collaboration involving an Australian Cooperative Research Centre and Ciba Vision, a division of the Swiss multi‐national Novartis. The analysis examines the project's success factors and its risks. The reputation of researchers, the development of mutual trust among the partners, and the importance of credible commitments made at project initiation are three key factors contributing to the success of commercially focused R&D collaborations.

Identifying and characterising crashes of returning riders - a new approach

Surveys have identified that many older motorcyclists are returning riders but it is difficult to draw conclusions about their crash risk because of discrepancies in definitions and the inability to identify returning riders in official crash databases. Analyses of NSW crash data were undertaken in which returning riders were defined as aged 25 and over, holding a full licence 10 years prior to the crash, and not the registered operator of one or more motorcycles during the 5-10 years prior to the crash. Based on this definition, there were 472 riders in casualty crashes in 2005-09 who were returning riders (5.5% of riders aged 25 and over in casualty crashes) and the characteristics of their crashes were similar to those involving continuing riders. In contrast, crashes of new riders were more likely to have characteristics suggestive of relatively more riding in urban areas, probably for transport rather than recreation. More work is recommended to assess the validity of the definition to allow a better understanding of the effects of long periods away from riding on riding skills and crash risk.

An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Identifying and managing low money laundering risk : perspectives on FATF's risk-based guidance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate Financial Action Task Force (FATF)'s risk-based guidance to combat money laundering and terrorist financing to determine its approach to the identification and management of low-risk providers, products and transactions.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses the relevant FATF recommendations and its guidance notes and reflects on key questions for regulators and financial institutions.

Findings – FATF has not defined “risk” for purposes of the risk-based approach. The absence of a clear definition complicates the identification of low-risk products. FATF do provide an example of a risk matrix that can be used to identify low-risk banks, but the example is based on assumptions and generalisations that are not sustainable. In addition, it identifies certain low-value transactions as “low risk” transactions. The paper reflects on the role of value as an indicator of risk and concludes with a number of suggestions to clarify the conceptual framework.

Originality/value – Low-risk products and transactions are often overlooked because the risk-based approach focuses attention on high-risk matters. Low-risk products are however crucial to the efforts to increase financial inclusion. The paper identifies gaps in the current conceptual framework and indicates ways in which they can be addressed.

Neurotoxicity : identifying and controlling poisons of the nervous system : summary.

"April 1990"--p.4 of cover.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Identifying risk factors and protective factors for venous leg ulcer recurrence using a theoretical approach : a longitudinal study

Background The high recurrence rate of chronic venous leg ulcers has a significant impact on an individual’s quality of life and healthcare costs. Objectives This study aimed to identify risk and protective factors for recurrence of venous leg ulcers using a theoretical approach by applying a framework of self and family management of chronic conditions to underpin the study. Design Secondary analysis of combined data collected from three previous prospective longitudinal studies. Setting The contributing studies’ participants were recruited from two metropolitan hospital outpatient wound clinics and three community-based wound clinics. Participants Data were available on a sample of 250 adults, with a leg ulcer of primarily venous aetiology, who were followed after ulcer healing for a median follow-up time of 17 months after healing (range: 3 to 36 months). Methods Data from the three studies were combined. The original participant data were collected through medical records and self-reported questionnaires upon healing and every 3 months thereafter. A Cox proportion-hazards regression analysis was undertaken to determine the influential factors on leg ulcer recurrence based on the proposed conceptual framework. Results The median time to recurrence was 42 weeks (95% CI 31.9–52.0), with an incidence of 22% (54 of 250 participants) recurrence within three months of healing, 39% (91 of 235 participants) for those who were followed for six months, 57% (111 of 193) by 12 months, 73% (53 of 72) by two years and 78% (41 of 52) of those who were followed up for three years. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model revealed that the risk factors for recurrence included a history of deep vein thrombosis (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.07–2.67, p=0.024), history of multiple previous leg ulcers (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.84–10.5, p=0.001), and longer duration (in weeks) of previous ulcer (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.003–1.01, p<0.001); while the protective factors were elevating legs for at least 30 minutes per day (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19–0.56, p<0.001), higher levels of self-efficacy (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92–0.99, p=0.016), and walking around for at least three hours/day (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44–0.98, p=0.040). Conclusions Results from this study provide a comprehensive examination of risk and protective factors associated with leg ulcer recurrence based on the chronic disease self and family management framework. These results in turn provide essential steps towards developing and testing interventions to promote optimal prevention strategies for venous leg ulcer recurrence.

Exposure risk assessment and evaluation of the best management practice for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. Part 2: Model simulation for the herbicide pretilachlor

BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

Mandatory Reporting and the Difficulties Identifying and Responding to Risk of Severe Neglect: A Response Requiring a Rethink

Neglect of children is a significant social issue worldwide and is typically the most frequently reported form of maltreatment in Western nations, with its severe forms sometimes resulting in significant illness and disablement or death. Yet, paradoxically, it remains ‘neglected’ and largely in the shadow of physical and sexual abuse, often being viewed as less serious despite the real-life consequences of its insidious and compounding nature and the lasting damage it causes to intergenerational familial relationships and the life outcomes of those affected. This chapter explores the many complex forms of child neglect, its causes and impacts and the strategies to prevent it. In particular, a critical standpoint is taken in analysing the rationale and merits of mandatory reporting of neglect and their effects, systemically and for children.