Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

Arktinen alue Venäjän sotilaallisesta näkökulmasta

Otsikon mukaisesti työ keskittyy venäläisten sotilaallisiin näkemyksiin. Arktista tutkimusta on sinällään tehty ja tehdään paljon, mutta todennäköisesti venäläistä sotilasajattelua mainitusta aiheesta ei ole tarkasteltu suomen kielellä. Työn aineisto on lähes kokonaan venäjänkielistä ja tutkittu aineisto koostuu kirjoittajista, joita – kuten Venäjällä sanotaan – pidetään alansa auktoriteetteina. Lähteet ovat julkisia.

The People's Republic of China and her relations with the countries of the association of Southeast Asian nations : 1969-1975

Phe Ihesis examines the evolution of the -policies of the People fs Jtenublie of China towards J?hail°nd, PTal ysia, Singapore, Iidonesia pad the Philip-pines, organised in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations from 1969 to 1975• 2ze first central point of this study is an *ir sumption that the foreign relations of The People's Tepublic of Chi la Towards Southeast ^sia have been motivated by a dynamic interplay of t^o main factors: (1) Farxist-Leninist ideology and ICao J^e-tung Ph^ught, which dictate to China to behave as a revolutionary Dover vhich must assist the insurgent movements in the area in their strug fle to overthrow the local governments; (2) national interest, vhich demands of China to safeguard the southern flank of her territory bordering on Southerst 'sia through Friendly relations, trade and ot*»er conventional inrtniments of diplomacy. hile the tvo main motive factors are nuTually antagonistic and exclusivet the Chinere leaders are nevertheless at te mi ting to oring them iirco a coherent policy under Mao's theory of tve {hniity of op-nosites," vhich believes that it is -possible to reconcile these co-posing tendencies into a dynamic enuibrium through vhich both opnosites could be promoted at the same time although not to the same extent* la other words, the Chinese leaders conceive the dynamic equilibrium as a continuum between them in a mix in which one or the other orientation predominates in different •periods* Bins we might see China1 s conduct motivated in one period by mostly ideological considerations at the expense of the staire-to-state relations, then ve might see her policy in the middle of the continuum and suf ering from immo bill sine and just muddling through, or finally ?fe might see her emphasising friendly ties at the expense of support of revolutionary movements at the other extreme -point of the spectrum* !fhe mechanism vhich enables Peking to move from one pole to the other of the spectrum is activated by the following elementsJ (1) the result of an internal power struggle within the leadership in Peking between ideologically radical and moderate elements, which enables the victorious faction to initiate nev policies; (2) Peking's assessment of the changing intentions and capabilities of the major powers in the area; (3) internal changes within the countries of the area and the changing attitudes of their governments towards China; (4) changing fortunes of revolutionary movements operating in the area* 'Phe second major point of this study is an assertion that while China's conduct toward Southeast *lsia after her foundation in 1949 was primarily based upon ideological considerations, the beginning of the seventies saw the national interest reasserting itself as the leading motive factor* Thus China talks with her neighbours in Southeast asia in terms of relevance of fllong historical ties," casting herself into the role of a benevolent "older brother11 who is entitled to reopect and deference in exchange for patronage and protection* Hence the traditional echoes of the past are emerging ever stronger and influencing her postures towards the region, while the open support to revolutionary moevments is underplayed at the moment.

Les ambitions maritimes de l’Inde dans l’océan Indien à l’aube du 21e siècle

Ce mémoire a pour objectif d’analyser la pertinence d’une culture stratégique particulière, celle de l’Inde. Au moins quatre variables culturelles à dimension sécuritaire – l’identité, les valeurs, les normes et les perceptions – permettent d’expliquer la conception de la sécurité et du pouvoir indiens. L’hypothèse avancée dans ce mémoire est la suivante : à cause de l’influence de la culture stratégique indienne, l’océan Indien est perçu par l’élite indienne comme l’endroit où réside la principale menace à la sécurité de l’Inde. En outre, cette perception particulière de la menace permet de mieux comprendre les ambitions maritimes de l’Inde dans l’océan Indien à l’aube du 21e siècle. Afin de confirmer l’hypothèse, nous analysons l’influence de la culture stratégique indienne sur les approches stratégiques privilégiées par les décideurs Indiens au sein de l’océan Indien. Nous concluons, sur la base de l’étude cas, que l’objectif stratégique de New Delhi est de devenir la puissance maritime dominante de l’océan Indien. Le moyen privilégié est la création d’une marine océanique puissante, capable de maintenir en permanence une escadre en patrouille loin de ses bases navales. Sur le plan théorique, les actions indiennes – qui ont surtout un caractère défensif – sont justifiées par une doctrine de non-ingérence des grandes puissances dans les affaires indiennes, doctrine calquée sur la doctrine Monroe. Selon la doctrine indienne, seules les puissances régionales sont à même de préserver la stabilité dans la région de l’océan Indien. Conséquemment, le Gouvernement indien œuvre à réduire l’ingérence des marines de guerre étrangères au sein de l’océan Indien.

La sécurité collective dans l’unipolarité : la crise nucléaire iranienne

L’argument central de notre thèse est qu’une structure internationale unipolaire non hégémonique favorise la sécurité collective. Après avoir montré que telle est la structure actuelle et avoir justifié notre positionnement théorique néolibéral, nous avons eu recours au modèle d’interaction du « leader-suiveur de Stackelberg », pour démontrer qu’une coopération conflictuelle entre États rationnels est possible, ce qui leur permet de surmonter leur dilemme de l’action collective. Une coopération possible en raison de l’existence d’un intérêt mutuel et d’un leader favorisant la coopération entre ces États, ainsi que de conditions leur permettant de mettre en place une ‘stratégie de la réciprocité’. Ils forment alors ce qu’on appelle le « groupe de Stackelberg ». Le suiveur de la périphérie, ou ‘défecteur’ doit, pour sa part, non seulement s’ajuster à l’intérêt mutuel ainsi défini, mais aussi coopérer et négocier avec le groupe, et ce, sous la pression de sanctions, voire d’un usage ultime de la force si besoin est. Après l’éventuel succès de ces négociations, un équilibre de Stackelberg favorisé par le leader, soit la puissance unipolaire et non hégémonique, est alors atteint et la coopération permet, alors, à chacun de retirer un bénéfice de cet intérêt mutuel. Dans notre cas, le groupe de Stackelberg est constitué des membres du G5 + 1, soit les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU et de l’Allemagne, agissant sous le leadership américain; l’Iran est un suiveur de la périphérie, soupçonné de défection, et l’intérêt mutuel est celui de la lutte contre la prolifération des ADM. Notre évaluation empirique montre que les conditions de la réciprocité des membres de ce groupe sont réunies et que celles de l’Iran sont en cours de négociation.

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

The Changing Nature of Multilateralism and Brazilian Foreign Policy

An important characteristic of the current international setting is the crisis of the structure in existence, rather than the emergence of a new order. The rise of new interests and demands, as well as the speed of the transformation make the current understanding of global governance more complex. Brazil, like other medium powers, has an interest in institutionalised multilateralism as a means of increasing its bargaining capacity and hindering the unilateralism of major powers, without being antagonistic to them. It is attempting to increase its weight in traditional international bodies, which provide the grounding for international legitimacy, as well as in new informal arrangements. While this strategy could lead to the establishment of a new hierarchy that brings in countries of growing relative importance, it has put the weight of regional integration into another perspective in Brazilian foreign policy.

How institutions shaped the last major evolutionary transition to large-scale human societies.

What drove the transition from small-scale human societies centred on kinship and personal exchange, to large-scale societies comprising cooperation and division of labour among untold numbers of unrelated individuals? We propose that the unique human capacity to negotiate institutional rules that coordinate social actions was a key driver of this transition. By creating institutions, humans have been able to move from the default 'Hobbesian' rules of the 'game of life', determined by physical/environmental constraints, into self-created rules of social organization where cooperation can be individually advantageous even in large groups of unrelated individuals. Examples include rules of food sharing in hunter-gatherers, rules for the usage of irrigation systems in agriculturalists, property rights and systems for sharing reputation between mediaeval traders. Successful institutions create rules of interaction that are self-enforcing, providing direct benefits both to individuals that follow them, and to individuals that sanction rule breakers. Forming institutions requires shared intentionality, language and other cognitive abilities largely absent in other primates. We explain how cooperative breeding likely selected for these abilities early in the Homo lineage. This allowed anatomically modern humans to create institutions that transformed the self-reliance of our primate ancestors into the division of labour of large-scale human social organization.

After balance of powers diplomacy, globalization´s politics

The September 11th episode not only marked the end of the Cold War, but of the Balance of Powers Diplomacy, through which the nation-states defin e themselves as enemies, and solve their problems with war or war threat. Today the major countries do not have enemies among other nation-states. Slowly Globalization’s Politics replace the previous system, as long as globalization gets regulated, and the rule of law emerges at international level. In the global world we have three types of countries: the rich, the ones of intermediary development, and the poor. Globalization is inherently unjust to the latter. Unable to compete in a world where competition prevails everywhere, such countries are either just outside the system, or, frustrated, recur to terrorism. Interests, however, do not point out only in the direction of inequalities. Through politics, i.e., through debate and argument, it will be possible to create a less unjust international law system. And also though it, the hope in an international government ceases to be a mere utopia.

An Analysis on the Decline in the Authoritative Powers of the Papacy and its Application to Challenges to Authoritative Powers Faced By the Permanent Membership of the UN Security Council

The organizational authority of the Papacy in the Roman Catholic Church and the permanent membership of the UN Security Council are unique from institutions that are commonly compared with the UN, like the Concert of Europe and the League of Nations, in that these institutional organs possessed strong authoritative and veto powers. Both organs also owe their strong authority during their founding to a need for stability: The Papacy after the crippling of Western Roman Empire and the P-5 to deal with the insecurities of the post-WWII world. While the P-5 still possesses similar authoritative powers within the Council as it did after WWII, the historical authoritative powers of the Papacy within the Church was debilitated to such a degree that by the time of the Reformation in Europe, condemnations of practices within the Church itself were not effective. This paper will analyze major challenges to the authoritative powers of the Papacy, from the crowning of Charlemagne to the beginning of the Reformation, and compare the analysis to challenges affecting the authoritative powers of the P-5 since its creation. From research conducted thus far, I hypothesize that common themes affecting the authoritative powers of the P-5 and the Papacy would include: major changes in the institutions organization (i.e. the Avignon Papacy and Japan’s bid to become a permanent member); the decline in power of actors supporting the institutional organ (i.e. the Holy Roman Empire and the P-5 members); and ideological clashes affecting the institution’s normative power (i.e. the Great Western Schism and Cold War politics).

An Analysis on the Decline in the Authoritative Powers of the Papacy and its Application to Challenges to Authoritative Powers Faced By the Permanent Membership of the UN Security Council

The organizational authority of the Papacy in the Roman Catholic Church and the permanent membership of the UN Security Council are unique from institutions that are commonly compared with the UN, like the Concert of Europe and the League of Nations, in that these institutional organs possessed strong authoritative and veto powers. Both organs also owe their strong authority during their founding to a need for stability: The Papacy after the crippling of Western Roman Empire and the P-5 to deal with the insecurities of the post-WWII world. While the P-5 still possesses similar authoritative powers within the Council as it did after WWII, the historical authoritative powers of the Papacy within the Church was debilitated to such a degree that by the time of the Reformation in Europe, condemnations of practices within the Church itself were not effective. This paper will analyze major challenges to the authoritative powers of the Papacy, from the crowning of Charlemagne to the beginning of the Reformation, and compare the analysis to challenges affecting the authoritative powers of the P-5 since its creation. From research conducted thus far, I hypothesize that common themes affecting the authoritative powers of the P-5 and the Papacy would include: major changes in the institutions organization (i.e. the Avignon Papacy and Japan’s bid to become a permanent member); the decline in power of actors supporting the institutional organ (i.e. the Holy Roman Empire and the P-5 members); and ideological clashes affecting the institution’s normative power (i.e. the Great Western Schism and Cold War politics).

How institutions shaped the last major evolutionary transition to large-scale human societies.

What drove the transition from small-scale human societies centred on kinship and personal exchange, to large-scale societies comprising cooperation and division of labour among untold numbers of unrelated individuals? We propose that the unique human capacity to negotiate institutional rules that coordinate social actions was a key driver of this transition. By creating institutions, humans have been able to move from the default ‘Hobbesian’ rules of the ‘game of life’, determined by physical/environmental constraints, into self-created rules of social organization where cooperation can be individually advantageous even in large groups of unrelated individuals. Examples include rules of food sharing in hunter–gatherers, rules for the usage of irrigation systems in agriculturalists, property rights and systems for sharing reputation between mediaeval traders. Successful institutions create rules of interaction that are self-enforcing, providing direct benefits both to individuals that follow them, and to individuals that sanction rule breakers. Forming institutions requires shared intentionality, language and other cognitive abilities largely absent in other primates. We explain how cooperative breeding likely selected for these abilities early in the Homo lineage. This allowed anatomically modern humans to create institutions that transformed the self-reliance of our primate ancestors into the division of labour of large-scale human social organization.

Hypertrophic Adenoid Is A Major Infection Site Of Human Bocavirus 1.

Human bocavirus 1 (HBoV1) is associated with respiratory infections worldwide, mainly in children. Similar to other parvoviruses, it is believed that HBoV1 can persist for long periods of time in humans, probably through maintaining concatemers of the virus single-stranded DNA genome in the nuclei of infected cells. Recently, HBoV-1 was detected in high rates in adenoid and palatine tonsils samples from patients with chronic adenotonsillar diseases, but nothing is known about the virus replication levels in those tissues. A 3-year prospective hospital-based study was conducted to detect and quantify HBoV1 DNA and mRNAs in samples of the adenoids (AD), palatine tonsils (PT), nasopharyngeal secretions (NPS), and peripheral blood (PB) from patients undergoing tonsillectomy for tonsillar hypertrophy or recurrent tonsillitis. HBoV1 was detected in 25.3% of the AD samples, while the rates of detection in the PT, NPS, and PB samples were 7.2%, 10.5%, and 1.7%, respectively. The viral loads were higher in AD samples, and 27.3% of the patients with HBoV had mRNA detectable in this tissue. High viral loads and detectable mRNA in the AD were associated with HBoV1 detection in the other sample sites. The adenoids are an important site of HBoV1 replication and persistence in children with tonsillar hypertrophy. The adenoids contain high HBoV1 loads and are frequently positive for HBoV mRNA, and this is associated with the detection of HBoV1 in secretions.