STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING MAIZE YIELD

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.

Dynamical influences of El Niño on maize yield in Spain

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop damages and yield. In a former work of Capa et al. (2013) the crop yield variability has been studied using different reanalyses datasets with the aim of extending the time series of potential yield. The reliability of these time series have been checked using observational data. The influence of the sea surface temperature on the crop yield variability has been studied, finding a relation with El Niño phenomenon. The highest correlation between El Niño and yield was during 1960-1980. This study aims to analyse the dynamical mechanism of El Niño impacts on maize yield in Spain during 1960-1980 by comparison with atmospheric circulation patterns.

El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Maize yield determination in the Northern Region: Hybrid by environment by management interactions

In Maize, as with most cereals, grain yield is mostly determined by the total grain number per unit area, which is highly related to the rate of crop growth during the critical period around silking. Management practices such as plant density or nitrogen fertilization can affect the growth of the crop during this period, and consequently the final grain yield. Across the Northern Region maize is grown under a large range of plant populations under high year-to-year rainfall variability. Clear guidelines on how to match hybrids and management across environments and expected seasonal condition, would allow growers to increase yields and profits while managing risks. The objective of this research was to screen the response of commercial maize hybrids differing in maturity and prolificity (i.e. multi or single cobbing) types for their efficiency in the allocation of biomass into grain.

Impact of compost, vermicompost and biochar on soil fertility, maize yield and soil erosion in Northern Vietnam: A three year mesocosm experiment

Compost, vermicompost and biochar amendments are thought to improve soil quality and plant yield. However, little is known about their long-term impact on crop yield and the environment in tropical agro-ecosystems. In this study we investigated the effect of organic amendments (buffalo manure, compost and verrnicompost) and biochar (applied alone or with vermicompost) on plant yield, soil fertility, soil erosion and water dynamics in a degraded Acrisol in Vietnam. Maize growth and yield, as well as weed growth, were examined for three years in terrestrial mesocosms under natural rainfall. Maize yield and growth showed high inter-annual variability depending on the organic amendment. Vermicompost improved maize growth and yield but its effect was rather small and was only significant when water availability was limited (year 2). This suggests that vermicompost could be a promising substrate for improving the resistance of agrosystems to water stress. When the vermicompost biochar mixture was applied, further growth and yield improvements were recorded in some cases. When applied alone, biochar had a positive influence on maize yield and growth, thus confirming its interest for improving long-term soil productivity. All organic amendments reduced water runoff, soil detachment and NH4+ and NO3- transfer to water. These effects were more significant with vermicompost than with buffalo manure and compost, highlighting that the beneficial influence of vermicompost is not limited to its influence on plant yield. In addition, this study showed for the first time that the combination of vermicompost and biochar may not only improve plant productivity but also reduce the negative impact of agriculture on water quality. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km2), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km2). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives.

Observed relationships between maize yield and climate in Sri Lanka

The present study evaluated the effects of climate variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in Sri Lanka at different spatial scales. Biophysical data from the Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka for six major maize-growing districts (Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Hambantota, Moneragala, and Kurunegala) from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed. Simple linear regression models were fitted to observed climate data and detrended maize yield to identify significant correlations. The correlation between first differences of maize yield and climate (r) was further investigated at 0.50° grid scale using interpolated climate data. After 2003, significantly positive (p < 0.01) yield trends varied from 154 kg ha–1 yr–1 to 360 kg ha–1 yr–1. The correlations between maize yield and climate reported that five out of six districts were significant at 10% level. Rainfall had a consistent significant (p < 0.10) positive impact on maize yield in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Moneragala, where seasonal total rainfall together with high temperature (“hot-dry”) are the key limitations. Further, the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on maize yield in Moneragala (“hot-dry”), the only district that showed high temperatures. Badulla district (“cold-dry”) reported a significant (r = 0.38) positive correlation with mean seasonal temperature, indicating higher potential toward increasing temperatures. Each 1°C rise in seasonal mean temperature reduced maize yield by about 5% from 1990 to 2010. Overall, there was a reasonable correlation between district maize yield and seasonal climate in most of the districts within the maize belt of Sri Lanka.

Short-term effects of four tillage practices on soil physical properties, soil water potential, and maize yield

The area cultivated using conservation tillage has recently increased in central Spain. However, soil compaction and water retention with conservation tillage still remains a genuine concern for landowners in this region be- cause of its potential effect on the crop growth and yield. The aim of this research is to determine the short- term influences of four tillage treatments on soil physical properties. In the experiment, bulk density, cone index, soil water potential, soil temperature and maize (Zea mays L.) productivity have been measured. A field experiment was established in spring of 2013 on a loamy soil. The experiment compared four tillage methods (zero tillage, ZT; reservoir tillage, RT; minimum tillage, MT; and conventional tillage, CT). Soil bulk density and soil cone index were measured during maize growing season and at harvesting time. Furthermore, the soil water potential was monitored by using a wireless sensors network with sensors at 20 and 40 cm depths. Also, soil temperatures were registered at depths of 5 and 12 cm. Results indicated that there were significant differ- ences between soil bulk density and cone index of ZT method and those of RT, MT, and CT, during the growing season; although, this difference was not significant at the time of harvesting in some soil layers. Overall, in most soil layers, tillage practice affected bulk density and cone index in the order: ZT N RT N MT N CT. Regardless oftheentireobservationperiod,results exhibited that soils under ZT and RT treatments usually resulted in higher water potential and lower soil temperature than the other two treatments at both soil depths. In addition, clear differences in maize grain yield were observed between ZT and CT treatments, with a grain yield (up to 15.4%) increase with the CT treatment. On the other hand, no significant differences among (RT, MT, and CT) on maizeyieldwerefound.Inconclusion,the impact of soil compaction increase and soil temperature decrease,pro- duced by ZT treatment is a potential reason for maize yield reduction in this tillage method. We found that RT could be certainly a viable option for farmers incentral Spain,particularly when switching to conservation tillage from conventional tillage. This technique showed a moderate and positive effect on soil physical properties and increased maize yields compared to ZT and MT, and provides an opportunity to stabilize maize yields compared to CT.

Winter cover crops on weed infestation and maize yield.

The establishment of commercial crops in succession to winter cover crops that leaves a dense straw layer provides significantly suppression of weeds. The objective of this work was to evaluate the suppressive potential of winter cover crops on weed infestation in maize and its effect on the yield of the maize sown in succession.

Doses de potássio no sistema integração lavoura-pecuária

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of row spacing and intercrop on maize grain yield and forage production of palisade grass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nitrogen fertilization management in no-tillage maize with different winter crops

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)