Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

Massa corporal e morfometria de Conopophaga melanops (Aves: Conopophagidae): uma comparação intrasexual e entre áreas continental e insular de Mata Atlântica, na região da Baía da Ilha Grande, RJ

A forma e o tamanho de um determinado organismo devem caracterizar aspectos ecológicos, uma vez que a morfometria é resultado da evolução. Diferenças nos caracteres morfológicos podem ter sido causadas por isolamento geográfico, mesmo em períodos de tempo relativamente curtos. O estudo da morfologia ecológica é uma tentativa de compreender a relação funcional entre variação morfológica e a ecologia dos animais. A variação nos atributos morfométricos de tamanho corpóreo entre os sexos pode ser um resultado da ação da seleção sexual. O presente estudo aborda uma comparação intrasexual e entre área continental e insular da morfologia de Conopophaga melanops (Vieillot, 1818), tendo sido realizado em uma área na Ilha Grande e em outra área na Reserva Ecológica Rio das Pedras (ReRP), RJ. A espécie, endêmica de Mata Atlântica e estritamente florestal, apresenta dimorfismo sexual, contudo indivíduos jovens possuem plumagem similar a de fêmeas. As aves foram capturadas com redes neblina, e doze medidas morfométricas foram obtidas de 51 indivíduos. A confirmação do sexo foi realizada por métodos moleculares baseados no DNA em 69 amostras. O percentual de erro na identificação do sexo em campo, pela plumagem, foi de 9,7%. A confirmação molecular do sexo é uma importante ferramenta que têm potencial de revelar padrões demográficos em estudos comportamentais e reprodutivos desta espécie. Na ReRP o comprimento da asa e a variável distância da cabeça até a ponta do bico apresentaram uma diferença significativa, sendo maior para machos do que para fêmeas. Já na Ilha Grande, as únicas variáveis que apresentaram diferença significativa foram comprimento da cauda (maior em machos) e altura do bico na base (maior em fêmeas). As diferenças de tamanho da asa entre os sexos corroboram com padrões de diversas outras espécies Neotropicais. A diferença morfométrica do bico pode estar associada à ecologia alimentar desta espécie. Tanto fêmeas quanto machos foram maiores na ilha do que no continente com relação ao comprimento total e comprimento da asa, além de comprimento da cauda maior para os machos.

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.

Genetic diversity of the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis in red foxes at a continental scale in Europe

BACKGROUND: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a severe helminth disease affecting humans, which is caused by the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. AE represents a serious public health issue in larger regions of China, Siberia, and other regions in Asia. In Europe, a significant increase in prevalence since the 1990s is not only affecting the historically documented endemic area north of the Alps but more recently also neighbouring regions previously not known to be endemic. The genetic diversity of the parasite population and respective distribution in Europe have now been investigated in view of generating a fine-tuned map of parasite variants occurring in Europe. This approach may serve as a model to study the parasite at a worldwide level. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The genetic diversity of E. multilocularis was assessed based upon the tandemly repeated microsatellite marker EmsB in association with matching fox host geographical positions. Our study demonstrated a higher genetic diversity in the endemic areas north of the Alps when compared to other areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study of the spatial distribution of E. multilocularis in Europe, based on 32 genetic clusters, suggests that Europe can be considered as a unique global focus of E. multilocularis, which can be schematically drawn as a central core located in Switzerland and Jura Swabe flanked by neighbouring regions where the parasite exhibits a lower genetic diversity. The transmission of the parasite into peripheral regions is governed by a "mainland-island" system. Moreover, the presence of similar genetic profiles in both zones indicated a founder event.

Mainland size variation informs predictive models of exceptional insular body size change in rodents.

The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as 'extremely' big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, 'extreme' populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.

Bribie Island groundwater resources : challenges in development of conceptual and numerical models

Groundwater is a major resource on Bribie Island and its sustainable management is essential to maintain the natural and modified eco-systems, as well as the human population and the integrity of the island as a sand mass. An effective numerical model is essential to enable predictions, and to test various water use and rainfall/climate scenarios. Such a numerical model must, however, be based on a representative conceptual hydrogeological model to allow incorporation of realistic controls and processes. Here we discuss the various hydrogeological models and parameters, and hydrological properties of the materials forming the island. We discuss the hydrological processes and how they can be incorporated into these models, in an integrated manner. Processes include recharge, discharge to wetlands and along the coastline, abstraction, evapotranspiration and potential seawater intrusion. The types and distributions of groundwater bores and monitoring are considered, as are scenarios for groundwater supply abstraction. Different types of numerical models and their applicability are also considered

Isolation basin records of late Quaternary sea-level change, central mainland British Columbia, Canada.

Isolation basin records from the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, a remote area of central mainland British Columbia, Canada are used to constrain post-glacial sea-level changes and provide a preliminary basis for testing geophysical model predictions of relative sea-level (RSL) change. Sedimentological and diatom data from three low-lying (<4 m elevation) basins record falling RSLs in late-glacial times and isolation from the sea by ~11,800–11,200 14C BP. A subsequent RSL rise during the early Holocene (~8000 14C BP) breached the 2.13 m sill of the lowest basin (Woods Lake), but the two more elevated basins (sill elevations of ~3.6 m) remained isolated. At ~2400 14C BP, RSL stood at 1.49 ± 0.34 m above present MTL. Falling RSLs in the late Holocene led to the final emergence of the Woods Lake basin by 1604 ± 36 14C BP. Model predictions generated using the ICE-5G model partnered with a small number of different Earth viscosity models generally show poor agreement with the observational data, indicating that the ice model and/or Earth models considered can be improved upon. The best data-model fits were achieved with relatively low values of upper mantle viscosity (5 × 1019 Pa s), which is consistent with previous modelling results from the region. The RSL data align more closely with observational records from the southeast of the region (eastern Vancouver Island, central Strait of Georgia), than the immediate north (Bella Bella–Bella Coola and Prince Rupert-Kitimat) and areas to the north-west (Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait), underlining the complexity of the regional response to glacio-isostatic recovery.

Holocene landscape intervention and plant food production strategies in island and mainland Southeast Asia

In the areas adjacent to the drowned Pleistocene continent of Sunda – present-day Mainland and Island SE Asia – the Austronesian Hypothesis of a diaspora of rice cultivators from Taiwan ∼4200 years ago has often been linked with the start of farming. Mounting evidence suggests that these developments should not be conflated and that alternative explanations should be considered, including indigenous inception of complex patterns of plant food production and early exchange of plants, animals, technology and genes. We review evidence for widespread forest disturbance in the Early Holocene which may accompany the beginnings of complex food-production. Although often insubstantial, evidence for incipient and developing management of rainforest vegetation and of developing complex relationships with plants is present, and early enough to suggest that during the Early to mid-Holocene this vast region was marked by different approaches to plant food production. The trajectory of the increasingly complex relationships between people and their food organisms was strongly locally contingent and in many cases did not result in the development of agricultural systems that were recognisable as such at the time of early European encounters. Diverse resource management economies in the Sunda and neighbouring regions appear to have accompanied rather than replaced a reliance on hunting and gathering. This, together with evidence for Early Holocene interaction between these neighbours, gives cause for us to question some authors continued adherence to a singular narrative of the Austronesian Hypothesis and the ‘Neolithisation’ of this part of the world. It also leads us to suggest that the forests of this vast region are, to an extent, a cultural artefact.

Phylogeny and ancient DNA of Sus provides insights into neolithic expansion in Island Southeast Asia and Oceania

Human settlement of Oceania marked the culmination of a global colonization process that began when humans first left Africa at least 90,000 years ago. The precise origins and dispersal routes of the Austronesian peoples and the associated Lapita culture remain contentious, and numerous disparate models of dispersal (based primarily on linguistic, genetic, and archeological data) have been proposed. Here, through the use of mtDNA from 781 modern and ancient Sus specimens, we provide evidence for an early human-mediated translocation of the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) to Flores and Timor and two later separate human-mediated dispersals of domestic pig (Sus scrofa) through Island Southeast Asia into Oceania. Of the later dispersal routes, one is unequivocally associated with the Neolithic (Lapita) and later Polynesian migrations and links modern and archeological Javan, Sumatran, Wallacean, and Oceanic pigs with mainland Southeast Asian S. scrofa. Archeological and genetic evidence shows these pigs were certainly introduced to islands east of the Wallace Line, including New Guinea, and that so-called "wild" pigs within this region are most likely feral descendants of domestic pigs introduced by early agriculturalists. The other later pig dispersal links mainland East Asian pigs to western Micronesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines. These results provide important data with which to test current models for human dispersal in the region. © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Plume-lithosphere interaction at Santiago Island (Cape Verde) : implications for ocean island magma genesis models

Tese de doutoramento, Geologia (Geoquímica), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Hyper abundant mesopredators and bird extinction in an Atlantic forest island

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial variability models of CO2 emissions from soils colonized by grass (Deschampsia antarctica) and moss (Sanionia uncinata) in Admiralty Bay, King George Island

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Clustering of web users using the tensor decomposed models

We propose to use the Tensor Space Modeling (TSM) to represent and analyze the user’s web log data that consists of multiple interests and spans across multiple dimensions. Further we propose to use the decomposition factors of the Tensors for clustering the users based on similarity of search behaviour. Preliminary results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional Vector Space Model (VSM) based clustering.