Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Testing second order cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum of non-white vibration signals

Cyclostationary models for the diagnostic signals measured on faulty rotating machineries have proved to be successful in many laboratory tests and industrial applications. The squared envelope spectrum has been pointed out as the most efficient indicator for the assessment of second order cyclostationary symptoms of damages, which are typical, for instance, of rolling element bearing faults. In an attempt to foster the spread of rotating machinery diagnostics, the current trend in the field is to reach higher levels of automation of the condition monitoring systems. For this purpose, statistical tests for the presence of cyclostationarity have been proposed during the last years. The statistical thresholds proposed in the past for the identification of cyclostationary components have been obtained under the hypothesis of having a white noise signal when the component is healthy. This need, coupled with the non-white nature of the real signals implies the necessity of pre-whitening or filtering the signal in optimal narrow-bands, increasing the complexity of the algorithm and the risk of losing diagnostic information or introducing biases on the result. In this paper, the authors introduce an original analytical derivation of the statistical tests for cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum, dropping the hypothesis of white noise from the beginning. The effect of first order and second order cyclostationary components on the distribution of the squared envelope spectrum will be quantified and the effectiveness of the newly proposed threshold verified, providing a sound theoretical basis and a practical starting point for efficient automated diagnostics of machine components such as rolling element bearings. The analytical results will be verified by means of numerical simulations and by using experimental vibration data of rolling element bearings.

A suitable method for journal bearing wear measurement

Purpose – Ideally, there is no wear in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. A small amount of wear occurs during start and stop of the machines and the amount of wear is so small that it is difficult to measure with accuracy. Various wear measuring techniques have been used where out-of-roundness was found to be the most reliable method of measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. This technique was further developed to achieve higher accuracy in measuring small wear quantities. The method proved to be reliable as well as inexpensive. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study, the effect of antiwear additives was studied on journal bearings lubricated with oil containing solid contaminants. The test duration was too long and the wear quantities achieved were too small. To minimise the test duration, short tests of about 90 min duration were conducted and wear was measured recording changes in variety of parameters related to weight, geometry and wear debris. The out-of-roundness was found to be the most effective method. This method was further refined by enlarging the out-of-roundness traces on a photocopier. The method was proved to be reliable and inexpensive. Findings – Study revealed that the most commonly used wear measurement techniques such as weight loss, roughness changes and change in particle count were not adequate for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. Out-of-roundness method with some refinements was found to be one of the most reliable methods for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings working in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. By enlarging the out-of-roundness traces and determining the worn area of the bearing cross-section, weight loss in bearings was calculated, which was repeatable and reliable. Research limitations/implications – This research is a basic in nature where a rudimentary solution has been developed for measuring small wear quantities in rotary devices such as journal bearings. The method requires enlarging traces on a photocopier and determining the shape of the worn area on an out-of-roundness trace on a transparency, which is a simple but a crude method. This may require an automated procedure to determine the weight loss from the out-of-roundness traces directly. This method can be very useful in reducing test duration and measuring wear quantities with higher precision in situations where wear quantities are very small. Practical implications – This research provides a reliable method of measuring wear of circular geometry. The Talyrond equipment used for measuring the change in out-of-roundness due to wear of bearings indicates that this equipment has high potential to be used as a wear measuring device also. Measurement of weight loss from the traces is an enhanced capability of this equipment and this research may lead to the development of a modified version of Talyrond type of equipment for wear measurements in circular machine components. Originality/value – Wear measurement in hydrodynamic bearings requires long duration tests to achieve adequate wear quantities. Out-of-roundness is one of the geometrical parameters that changes with progression of wear in a circular shape components. Thus, out-of-roundness is found to be an effective wear measuring parameter that relates to change in geometry. Method of increasing the sensitivity and enlargement of out-of-roundness traces is original work through which area of worn cross-section can be determined and weight loss can be derived for materials of known density with higher precision.

"神光-Ⅱ"装置第九路靶场终端光学组件的研制

针对“神光-Ⅱ”装置第九路系统主激光瞄准精度小于等于30μm和大焦斑辐照均匀性优于10％的要求，提出了靶场终端光学组件的设计结构。应用有限元法对组件关键机械元件和ICF靶室整体进行动静态分析，优化了设计参数。同时与聚焦透镜配合进行数值分析列阵透镜，确定了单元数、曲率和厚度以及单元长和宽等参数。经过实验测试，主激光瞄准精度达到28．9μm，大焦斑辐照的形状为1000μm×500μm，均匀性为12．0％。

The influence of repeated loading, residual stresses and shakedown on the behaviour of tribological contacts

Most tribological pairs carry their service load not just once but for a very large number of repeated cycles. During the early stages of this life, protective residual stresses may be developed in the near surface layers which enable loads which are of sufficient magnitude to cause initial plastic deformation to be accommodated purely elastically in the longer term. This is an example of the phenomenon of 'shakedown' and when its effects are incorporated into the design and operation schedule of machine components this process can lead to significant increases in specific loading duties or improvements in material utilization. Although the underlying principles can be demonstrated by reference to relatively simple stress systems, when a moving Hertzian pressure distribution in considered, which is the form of loading applicable to many contact problems, the situation is more complex. In the absence of exact solutions, bounding theorems, adopted from the theory of plasticity, can be used to generate appropriate load or shakedown limits so that shakedown maps can be drawn which delineate the boundaries between potentially safe and unsafe operating conditions. When the operating point of the contact lies outside the shakedown limit there will be an increment of plastic strain with each application of the load - these can accumulate leading eventually to either component failure or the loss of material by wear. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxygen reduction on PtFe/C electrocatalysts prepared in microemulsions

PtFe/C nanocatalysts of different compositions and nearly constant particle size were prepared by a microemulsion method. Crystallite sizes and degree of alloying were determined by X-ray diffraction. Particle size and distribution were characterized by transmission electron microscopy and average composition was determined by energy dispersive X-ray analysis. Measurements of electrocatalytic activity for oxygen reduction were done using the rotating disk electrode technique in O2 saturated 0.5 mol L-1 sulfuric acid solutions, at room temperature. For all catalysts oxygen reduction begins at ̃ 0.90V. Tafel plots show slopes of c.a. 60 and 120 mV dec in the regions of low and high overpotentials, respectively. The best results for the ORR were obtained for the PtFe/C catalyst of composition Pt:Fe 70:30. This catalyst was also found to exhibit the largest methanol tolerance. © The Electrochemical Society.

Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas à manutenção baseada na condição

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Functional photoactive and electroactive nanodevices

Most of current ultra-miniaturized devices are obtained by the top-down approach, in which nanoscale components are fabricated by cutting down larger precursors. Since this physical-engineering method is reaching its limits, especially for components below 30 nm in size, alternative strategies are necessary. Of particular appeal to chemists is the supramolecular bottom-up approach to nanotechnology, a methodology that utilizes the principles of molecular recognition to build materials and devices from molecular components. The subject of this thesis is the photophysical and electrochemical investigation of nanodevices obtained harnessing the principles of supramolecular chemistry. These systems operate in solution-based environments and are investigated at the ensemble level. The majority of the chemical systems discussed here are based on pseudorotaxanes and catenanes. Such supramolecular systems represent prototypes of molecular machines since they are capable of performing simple controlled mechanical movements. Their properties and operation are strictly related to the supramolecular interactions between molecular components (generally photoactive or electroactive molecules) and to the possibility of modulating such interactions by means of external stimuli. The main issues addressed throughout the thesis are: (i) the analysis of the factors that can affect the architecture and perturb the stability of supramolecular systems; (ii) the possibility of controlling the direction of supramolecular motions exploiting the molecular information content; (iii) the development of switchable supramolecular polymers starting from simple host-guest complexes; (iv) the capability of some molecular machines to process information at molecular level, thus behaving as logic devices; (v) the behaviour of molecular machine components in a biological-type environment; (vi) the study of chemically functionalized metal nanoparticles by second harmonic generation spectroscopy.

InUse – Intelligente Unterlegscheibe zur Messung der Kräfte in Schraubverbindungen

Die lösbare Verbindung von mechanischen Komponenten innerhalb von Maschinen und Anlagen wird zumeist über Schraubverbindungen realisiert. Um eine ausreichende Verbindung zu erzielen werden derzeit die Klemmkräfte durch ein definiertes Anzugsmoment aufgebracht. Bei der Berechnung des Momentes entsprechend der benötigten Kraft finden Reibbeiwerte innerhalb der Schraubverbindung Berücksichtigung, welche nur bedingt ermittelt werden können. In kritischen Maschinenkomponenten wird daher eine Überdimensionierung der Schrauben zur Erhöhung der Sicherheit akzeptiert. Die direkte Kraftmessung mittels einer intelligenten Unterlegscheibe und eine transpondergestützte Datenübertragung ermöglicht es, die Kräfte genau einzustellen und somit die Sicherheit zu erhöhen.

The prediction of vibration in large electric machines

This thesis reports the development of a reliable method for the prediction of response to electromagnetically induced vibration in large electric machines. The machines of primary interest are DC ship-propulsion motors but much of the work reported has broader significance. The investigation has involved work in five principal areas. (1) The development and use of dynamic substructuring methods. (2) The development of special elements to represent individual machine components. (3) Laboratory scale investigations to establish empirical values for properties which affect machine vibration levels. (4) Experiments on machines on the factory test-bed to provide data for correlation with prediction. (5) Reasoning with regard to the effect of various design features. The limiting factor in producing good models for machines in vibration is the time required for an analysis to take place. Dynamic substructuring methods were adopted early in the project to maximise the efficiency of the analysis. A review of existing substructure- representation and composite-structure assembly methods includes comments on which are most suitable for this application. In three appendices to the main volume methods are presented which were developed by the author to accelerate analyses. Despite significant advances in this area, the limiting factor in machine analyses is still time. The representation of individual machine components was addressed as another means by which the time required for an analysis could be reduced. This has resulted in the development of special elements which are more efficient than their finite-element counterparts. The laboratory scale experiments reported were undertaken to establish empirical values for the properties of three distinct features - lamination stacks, bolted-flange joints in rings and cylinders and the shimmed pole-yoke joint. These are central to the preparation of an accurate machine model. The theoretical methods are tested numerically and correlated with tests on two machines (running and static). A system has been devised with which the general electromagnetic forcing may be split into its most fundamental components. This is used to draw some conclusions about the probable effects of various design features.

Calix[6]arene Derivatives as Pivotal Components of Working Devices and Molecular Machine Prototypes

This Ph.D. thesis describes the synthesis, characterization and study of calix[6]arene derivatives as pivotal components for the construction of molecular machine prototypes. Initially, the ability of a calix[6]arene wheel to supramolecularly assist and increase the rate of a nucleophilic substitution reaction was exploited for the synthesis of two constitutionally isomeric oriented rotaxanes. Then, the synthesis and characterization of several hetero-functionalised calix[6]arene derivatives and the possibility to obtain molecular muscle prototypes was reported. The ability of calix[6]arenes to form oriented pseudorotaxane towards dialkyl viologen axles was then exploited for the synthesis of two calixarene-based [2]catenanes. As last part of this thesis, studies on the electrochemical response of the threading-dethreading process of calix[6]arene-based pseudorotaxanes and rotaxanes supported on glassy carbon electrodes are reported.

Machine recognition of hand-drawn circuit diagrams

An application of image processing techniques to recognition of hand-drawn circuit diagrams is presented. The scanned image of a diagram is pre-processed to remove noise and converted to bilevel. Morphological operations are applied to obtain a clean, connected representation using thinned lines. The diagram comprises of nodes, connections and components. Nodes and components are segmented using appropriate thresholds on a spatially varying object pixel density. Connection paths are traced using a pixel-stack. Nodes are classified using syntactic analysis. Components are classified using a combination of invariant moments, scalar pixel-distribution features, and vector relationships between straight lines in polygonal representations. A node recognition accuracy of 82% and a component recognition accuracy of 86% was achieved on a database comprising 107 nodes and 449 components. This recogniser can be used for layout “beautification” or to generate input code for circuit analysis and simulation packages