998 resultados para MIXING MODELS


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Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

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The eastern part of the Cordillera Occidental of Ecuador comprises thick buoyant oceanic plateaus associated with island-arc tholeiites and subduction-related calc-alkaline series, accreted to the Ecuadorian Continental Margin from Late Cretaceous to Eocene times. One of these plateau sequences, the Guaranda Oceanic Plateau is considered as remnant of the Caribbean-Colombian Oceanic Province (CCOP) accreted to the Ecuadorian Margin in the Maastrichtien. Samples studied in this paper were taken from four cross-sections through two arc-sequences in the northern part of the Cordillera Occidental of Ecuador, dated as (Rio Cala) or ascribed to (Macuchi) the Late Cretaceous and one arc-like sequence in the Chogon-Colonche Cordillera (Las Orquideas). These three island-arcs can clearly be identified and rest conformably on the CCOP. In all four localities, basalts with abundant large clinopyroxene phenocrysts can be found, mimicking a picritic or ankaramitic facies. This mineralogical particularity, although not uncommon in island arc lavas, hints at a contribution of the CCOP in the genesis of these island arc rocks. The complete petrological and geochemical study of these rocks reveals that some have a primitive island-arc nature (MgO values range from 6 to 11 wt.%). Studied samples display marked Nb, Ta and Ti negative anomalies relative to the adjacent elements in the spidergrams characteristic of subductionrelated magmatism. These rocks are LREE-enriched and their clinopyroxenes show a tholeiitic affinity (FeO(1)-TiO(2) enrichment and CaO depletion from core to rim within a single crystal). The four sampled cross-sections through the island-arc sequences display homogeneous initial Nd, and Pb isotope ratios that suggest a unique mantellic source for these rocks resulting from the mixing of three components: an East-Pacific MORB end-member, an enriched pelagic sediment component, and a HIMU component carried by the CCOP. Indeed, the ankaramite and Mg-basalt sequences that form part of the Caribbean-Colombian Oceanic Plateau are radiogenically enriched in (206)Pb/(204)Pb and (207)Pb/(204)Pb and contain a HIMU component similar to that observed in the Gorgona basalts and Galapagos lavas. The subduction zone that generated the Late Cretaceous arcs occurred far from the continental margin, in an oceanic environment. This implies that no terrigenous detrital sediments interacted with the source at this period. Thus, the enriched component can only result from the melting of subducted pelagic sediments. We have thus defined the East-Pacific MORB, enriched (cherts, pelagic sediments) and HIMU components in an attempt to constrain and model the genesis of the studied island-arc magmatism, using a compilation of carefully selected isotopic data from literature according to rock age and paleogeographic location at the time of arc edification. Tripolar mixing models reveal that proportions of 12-15 wt.% of the HIMU component, 7-15 wt.% of the pelagic sediment end-member and 70-75 wt.% of an East-pacific MORB end-member are needed to explain the measured isotope ratios. These surprisingly high proportions of the HIMU/CCOP component could be explained by the young age of the oceanic plateau (5-15 Ma) during the Late Cretaceous arc emplacement. The CCOP, basement of these arc sequences, was probably still hot and easily assimilated at the island-arc lava source. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,

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Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing models between end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework. We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study. We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables that lay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hidden components, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members. We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained total variance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphical representation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysis of diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, except fertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition. This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations are intrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

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Although shorebirds spending the winter in temperate areas frequently use estuarine and supratidal (upland) feeding habitats, the relative contribution of each habitat to individual diets has not been directly quantified. We quantified the proportional use that Calidris alpina pacifica (Dunlin) made of estuarine vs. terrestrial farmland resources on the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia, using stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N) of blood from 268 Dunlin over four winters, 1997 through 2000. We tested for individual, age, sex, morphological, seasonal, and weather-related differences in dietary sources. Based on single- (δ13C) and dual-isotope mixing models, the agricultural habitat contributed approximately 38% of Dunlin diet averaged over four winters, with the balance from intertidal flats. However, there was a wide variation among individuals in the extent of agricultural feeding, ranging from about 1% to 95% of diet. Younger birds had a significantly higher terrestrial contribution to diet (43%) than did adults (35%). We estimated that 6% of adults and 13% of juveniles were obtaining at least 75% of their diet from terrestrial sources. The isotope data provided no evidence for sex or overall body size effects on the proportion of diet that is terrestrial in origin. The use of agricultural habitat by Dunlin peaked in early January. Adult Dunlin obtained a greater proportion of their diet terrestrially during periods of lower temperatures and high precipitation, whereas no such relationship existed for juveniles. Seasonal variation in the use of agricultural habitat suggests that it is used more during energetically stressful periods. The terrestrial farmland zone appears to be consistently important as a habitat for juveniles, but for adults it may provide an alternative feeding site used as a buffer against starvation during periods of extreme weather. Loss or reduction of agricultural habitat adjacent to estuaries may negatively impact shorebird fitness, with juveniles disproportionately affected.

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Diverse invertebrate and vertebrate species live in association with plants of the large Neotropical family Bromeliaceae. Although previous studies have assumed that debris of associated organisms improves plant nutrition, so far little evidence supports this assumption. In this study we used isotopic ((15)N) and physiological methods to investigate if the treefrog Scinax hayii, which uses the tank epiphytic bromeliad Vriesea bituminosa as a diurnal shelter, contributes to host plant nutrition. In the field, bromeliads with frogs had higher stable N isotopic composition (delta(15)N) values than those without frogs. Similar results were obtained from a controlled greenhouse experiment. Linear mixing models showed that frog feces and dead termites used to simulate insects that eventually fall inside the bromeliad tank contributed, respectively, 27.7% (+/- 0.07 SE) and 49.6% (+/- 0.50 SE) of the total N of V. bituminosa. Net photosynthetic rate was higher in plants that received feces and termites than in controls; however, this effect was only detected in the rainy, but not in the dry season. These results demonstrate for the first time that vertebrates contribute to bromeliad nutrition, and that this benefit is seasonally restricted. Since amphibian-bromeliad associations occur in diverse habitats in South and Central America, this mechanism for deriving nutrients may be important in bromeliad systems throughout the Neotropics.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The Guarani aquifer underlies 1.2 M km(2) in the Parana sedimentary basin of South America and is an important source of water for industry, agriculture, and domestic supplies. To determine the sustainability of this aquifer we need to understand the dynamics of the groundwater system. This paper describes the first Cl-36 measurements on aquifer groundwaters and some measurements on South American rainwaters, thought to be indicative of the recharge water. The results are compared to previous work in the region, including other radioisotope analyses. A simple model is developed, incorporating radioactive decay, allowing scenarios to be developed for mixing different waters at different mixing rates. Thus, mixing scenarios consistent with other hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data could be assessed. A model that mixes fresh recharging waters with formational waters, that contain elevated chloride levels, but low (in situ) Cl-36 levels, can explain most of the results presented here. The expectation that rainwater samples would provide a good end-member for modelling recharge proved problematic, however. As a consequence, it is suggested that either: the recharge waters are not sourced from the same locations as the rains; that the current rainfall and fallout conditions were significantly different in the past; or that the low levels of chloride in rainfall may have allowed some contamination of the samples by old (Cl-36-free) chloride during the recharge process. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background and aimsThe protocarnivorous plant Paepalanthus bromelioides (Eriocaulaceae) is similar to bromeliads in that this plant has a rosette-like structure that allows rainwater to accumulate in leaf axils (i.e. phytotelmata). Although the rosettes of P. bromelioides are commonly inhabited by predators (e.g. spiders), their roots are wrapped by a cylindrical termite mound that grows beneath the rosette. In this study it is predicted that these plants can derive nutrients from recycling processes carried out by termites and from predation events that take place inside the rosette. It is also predicted that bacteria living in phytotelmata can accelerate nutrient cycling derived from predators.MethodsThe predictions were tested by surveying plants and animals, and also by performing field experiments in rocky fields from Serra do Cipó, Brazil, using natural abundance and enriched isotopes of 15N. Laboratory bioassays were also conducted to test proteolytic activities of bacteria from P. bromelioides rosettes.Key ResultsAnalyses of 15N in natural nitrogen abundances showed that the isotopic signature of P. bromelioides is similar to that of carnivorous plants and higher than that of non-carnivorous plants in the study area. Linear mixing models showed that predatory activities on the rosettes (i.e. spider faeces and prey carcass) resulted in overall nitrogen contributions of 26·5 % (a top-down flux). Although nitrogen flux was not detected from termites to plants via decomposition of labelled cardboard, the data on 15N in natural nitrogen abundance indicated that 67 % of nitrogen from P. bromelioides is derived from termites (a bottom-up flux). Bacteria did not affect nutrient cycling or nitrogen uptake from prey carcasses and spider faeces.ConclusionsThe results suggest that P. bromelioides derive nitrogen from associated predators and termites, despite differences in nitrogen cycling velocities, which seem to have been higher in nitrogen derived from predators (leaves) than from termites (roots). This is the first study that demonstrates partitioning effects from multiple partners in a digestion-based mutualism. Despite most of the nitrogen being absorbed through their roots (via termites), P. bromelioides has all the attributes necessary to be considered as a carnivorous plant in the context of digestive mutualism. © 2012 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved.

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Patterns of species interactions affect the dynamics of food webs. An important component of species interactions that is rarely considered with respect to food webs is the strengths of interactions, which may affect both structure and dynamics. In natural systems, these strengths are variable, and can be quantified as probability distributions. We examined how variation in strengths of interactions can be described hierarchically, and how this variation impacts the structure of species interactions in predator-prey networks, both of which are important components of ecological food webs. The stable isotope ratios of predator and prey species may be particularly useful for quantifying this variability, and we show how these data can be used to build probabilistic predator-prey networks. Moreover, the distribution of variation in strengths among interactions can be estimated from a limited number of observations. This distribution informs network structure, especially the key role of dietary specialization, which may be useful for predicting structural properties in systems that are difficult to observe. Finally, using three mammalian predator-prey networks ( two African and one Canadian) quantified from stable isotope data, we show that exclusion of link-strength variability results in biased estimates of nestedness and modularity within food webs, whereas the inclusion of body size constraints only marginally increases the predictive accuracy of the isotope-based network. We find that modularity is the consequence of strong link-strengths in both African systems, while nestedness is not significantly present in any of the three predator-prey networks.

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A one-dimensional multi-component reactive fluid transport algorithm, 1DREACT (Steefel, 1993) was used to investigate different fluid-rock interaction systems. A major short coming of mass transport calculations which include mineral reactions is that solid solutions occurring in many minerals are not treated adequately. Since many thermodynamic models of solid solutions are highly non-linear, this can seriously impact on the stability and efficiency of the solution algorithms used. Phase petrology community saw itself faced with a similar predicament 10 years ago. To improve performance and reliability, phase equilibrium calculations have been using pseudo compounds. The same approach is used here in the first, using the complex plagioclase solid solution as an example. Thermodynamic properties of a varying number of intermediate plagioclase phases were calculated using ideal molecular, Al-avoidance, and non-ideal mixing models. These different mixing models can easily be incorporated into the simulations without modification of the transport code. Simulation results show that as few as nine intermediate compositions are sufficient to characterize the diffusional profile between albite and anorthite. Hence this approach is very efficient, and can be used with little effort. A subsequent chapter reports the results of reactive fluid transport modeling designed to constrain the hydrothermal alteration of Paleoproterozoic sediments of the Southern Lake Superior region. Field observations reveal that quartz-pyrophyllite (or kaolinite) bearing assemblages have been transformed into muscovite-pyrophyllite-diaspore bearing assemblages due to action of fluids migrating along permeable flow channels. Fluid-rock interaction modeling with an initial qtz-prl assemblage and a K-rich fluid simulates the formation of observed mineralogical transformation. The bulk composition of the system evolves from an SiO2-rich one to an Al2O3+K2O-rich one. Simulations show that the fluid flow was up-temperature (e.g. recharge) and that fluid was K-rich. Pseudo compound approach to include solid solutions in reactive transport models was tested in modeling hydrothermal alteration of Icelandic basalts. Solid solutions of chlorites, amphiboles and plagioclase were included as the secondary mineral phases. Saline and fresh water compositions of geothermal fluids were used to investigate the effect of salinity on alteration. Fluid-rock interaction simulations produce the observed mineral transformations. They show that roughly the same alteration minerals are formed due to reactions with both types of fluid which is in agreement with the field observations. A final application is directed towards the remediation of nitrate rich groundwaters. Removal of excess nitrate from groundwater by pyrite oxidation was modeled using the reactive fluid transport algorithm. Model results show that, when a pyrite-bearing, permeable zone is placed in the flow path, nitrate concentration in infiltrating water can be significantly lowered, in agreement with proposals from the literature. This is due to nitrogen reduction. Several simulations investigate the efficiency of systems with different mineral reactive surface areas, reactive barrier zone widths, and flow rates to identify the optimum setup.

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Extraction of natural gas by hydraulic fracturing of the Middle Devonian Marcellus Shale, a major gas-bearing unit in the Appalachian Basin, results in significant quantities of produced water containing high total dissolved solids (TDS). We carried out a strontium (Sr) isotope investigation to determine the utility of Sr isotopes in identifying and quantifying the interaction of Marcellus Formation produced waters with other waters in the Appalachian Basin in the event of an accidental release, and to provide information about the source of the dissolved solids. Strontium isotopic ratios of Marcellus produced waters collected over a geographic range of ∼375 km from southwestern to northeastern Pennsylvania define a relatively narrow set of values (εSr SW = +13.8 to +41.6, where εSr SW is the deviation of the 87Sr/86Sr ratio from that of seawater in parts per 104); this isotopic range falls above that of Middle Devonian seawater, and is distinct from most western Pennsylvania acid mine drainage and Upper Devonian Venango Group oil and gas brines. The uniformity of the isotope ratios suggests a basin-wide source of dissolved solids with a component that is more radiogenic than seawater. Mixing models indicate that Sr isotope ratios can be used to sensitively differentiate between Marcellus Formation produced water and other potential sources of TDS into ground or surface waters.

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Here we present stable isotope data for vertical profiles of dissolved molybdenum of the modern euxinic water columns of the Black Sea and two deeps of the Baltic Sea. Dissolved molybdenum in all water samples is depleted in salinity-normalized concentration and enriched in the heavy isotope (δ98Mo values up to + 2.9‰) compared to previously published isotope data of sedimentary molybdenum from the same range of water depths. Furthermore, δ98Mo values of all water samples from the Black Sea and anoxic deeps of the Baltic Sea are heavier than open ocean water. The observed isotope fractionation between sediments and the anoxic water column of the Black Sea are in line with the model of thiomolybdates that scavenge to particles under reducing conditions. An extrapolation to a theoretical pure MoS42− solution indicates a fractionation constant between MoS42− and authigenic solid Mo of 0.5 ± 0.3‰. Measured waters with all thiomolybdates coexisting in various proportions show larger but non-linear fractionation. The best explanation for our field observations is Mo scavenging by the thiomolybdates, dominantly — but not exclusively — present in the form of MoS42−. The Mo isotopic compositions of samples from the sediments and anoxic water column of the Baltic Sea are in overall agreement with those of the Black Sea at intermediate depth and corresponding sulphide concentrations. The more dynamic changes of redox conditions in the Baltic deeps complicate the Black Sea-derived relationship between thiomolybdates and Mo isotopic composition. In particular, the occasional flushing/mixing, of the deep waters, affects the corresponding water column and sedimentary data. δ98Mo values of the upper oxic waters of both basins are higher than predicted by mixing models based on salinity variations. The results can be explained by non-conservative behaviour of Mo under suboxic to anoxic conditions in the shallow bottom parts of the basin, most pronounced on the NW shelf of the Black Sea.

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Changing patterns of sea-ice distribution and extent have measurable effects on polar marine systems. Beyond the obvious impacts of key-habitat loss, it is unclear how such changes will influence ice-associated marine mammals in part because of the logistical difficulties of studying foraging behaviour or other aspects of the ecology of large, mobile animals at sea during the polar winter. This study investigated the diet of pregnant bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) during three spring breeding periods (2005, 2006 and 2007) with markedly contrasting ice conditions in Svalbard using stable isotopes (d13C and d15N) measured in whiskers collected from their newborn pups. The d15N values in the whiskers of individual seals ranged from 11.95 to 17.45 per mil, spanning almost 2 full trophic levels. Some seals were clearly dietary specialists, despite the species being characterised overall as a generalist predator. This may buffer bearded seal populations from the changes in prey distributions lower in the marine food web which seems to accompany continued changes in temperature and ice cover. Comparisons with isotopic signatures of known prey, suggested that benthic gastropods and decapods were the most common prey. Bayesian isotopic mixing models indicated that diet varied considerably among years. In the year with most fast-ice (2005), the seals had the greatest proportion of pelagic fish and lowest benthic invertebrate content, and during the year with the least ice (2006), the seals ate more benthic invertebrates and less pelagic fish. This suggests that the seals fed further offshore in years with greater ice cover, but moved in to the fjords when ice-cover was minimal, giving them access to different types of prey. Long-term trends of sea ice decline, earlier ice melt, and increased water temperatures in the Arctic are likely to have ecosystem-wide effects, including impacts on the forage bases of pagophilic seals.

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Total organic carbon (TOC) was analyzed on four transects along 140°W in 1992 using a high temperature combustion/discrete injection (HTC/DI) analyzer. For two of the transects, the analyses were conducted on-board ship. Mixed-layer concentrations of organic carbon varied from about 80 µM C at either end of the transect (12°N and 12°S) to about 60 µM C at the equator. Total organic carbon concentrations decreased rapidly below the mixed-layer to about 38-40 µM C at 1000 m across the transect. Little variation was observed below this depth; deep water concentrations below 2000 m were virtually monotonic at about 36 µM C. Repeat measurements made on subsequent cruises consistently found the same concentrations at 1000 m or deeper, but substantial variations were observed in the mixed-layer and the upper water column above 400 m depth. Linear mixing models of total organic carbon versus sigmaT exhibited zones of organic carbon formation and consumption. TOC was found to be inversely correlated with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in the region between the mixed-layer and the oxygen minimum. In the mixed-layer, TOC concentrations varied seasonally. Part of the variations in TOC at the equator was driven by changes in the upwelling rate in response to variations in physical forcing related to an El Niño and to the passage of tropical instability waves. TOC export fluxes, calculated from simple box models, averaged 8±4 mmol C/m**2/day at the equator and also varied seasonally. These export fluxes account for 50-75% of the total carbon deficit and are consistent with other estimates and model predictions.

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Inter-individual variation in diet within generalist animal populations is thought to be a widespread phenomenon but its potential causes are poorly known. Inter-individual variation can be amplified by the availability and use of allochthonous resources, i.e., resources coming from spatially distinct ecosystems. Using a wild population of arctic fox as a study model, we tested hypotheses that could explain variation in both population and individual isotopic niches, used here as proxy for the trophic niche. The arctic fox is an opportunistic forager, dwelling in terrestrial and marine environments characterized by strong spatial (arctic-nesting birds) and temporal (cyclic lemmings) fluctuations in resource abundance. First, we tested the hypothesis that generalist foraging habits, in association with temporal variation in prey accessibility, should induce temporal changes in isotopic niche width and diet. Second, we investigated whether within-population variation in the isotopic niche could be explained by individual characteristics (sex and breeding status) and environmental factors (spatiotemporal variation in prey availability). We addressed these questions using isotopic analysis and Bayesian mixing models in conjunction with linear mixed-effects models. We found that: i) arctic fox populations can simultaneously undergo short-term (i.e., within a few months) reduction in both isotopic niche width and inter-individual variability in isotopic ratios, ii) individual isotopic ratios were higher and more representative of a marine-based diet for non-breeding than breeding foxes early in spring, and iii) lemming population cycles did not appear to directly influence the diet of individual foxes after taking their breeding status into account. However, lemming abundance was correlated to proportion of breeding foxes, and could thus indirectly affect the diet at the population scale.