Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems and Associated Energetics : Observational and Modeling Studies

The main purpose of the thesis is to improve the state of knowledge and understanding of the physical structure of the TMCS and its short range prediction. The present study principally addresses the fine structure, dynamics and microphysics of severe convective storms.The structure and dynamics of the Tropical cloud clusters over Indian region is not well understood. The observational cases discussed in the thesis are limited to the temperature and humidity observations. We propose a mesoscale observational network along with all the available Doppler radars and other conventional and non—conventional observations. Simultaneous observations with DWR, VHF and UHF radars of the same cloud system will provide new insight into the dynamics and microphysics of the clouds. More cases have to be studied in detail to obtain climatology of the storm type passing over tropical Indian region. These observational data sets provide wide variety of information to be assimilated to the mesoscale data assimilation system and can be used to force CSRM.The gravity wave generation and stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE) processes associated with convection gained a great deal of attention to modem science and meteorologist. Round the clock observations using VHF and UHF radars along with supplementary data sets like DWR, satellite, GPS/Radiosondes, meteorological rockets and aircrafl observations is needed to explore the role of convection and associated energetics in detail.

Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are relatively rare events in the UK but, when they do occur, can be associated with weather that is considered extreme with respect to climatology (as indicated by the number of such events that have been analysed as case studies). These case studies usually associate UK MCSs with a synoptic environment known as the Spanish plume. Here a previously published 17 year climatology of UK MCS events is extended to the present day (from 1998 to 2008) and these events classified according to the synoptic environment in which they form. Three distinct synoptic environments have been identified, here termed the classical Spanish plume, modified Spanish plume, and European easterly plume. Detailed case studies of the two latter, newly defined, environments are presented. Composites produced for each environment further reveal the differences between them. The classical Spanish plume is associated with an eastward propagating baroclinic cyclone that evolves according to idealised life cycle 1. Conditional instability is released from a warm moist plume of air advected northeastwards from Iberia that is capped by warmer, but very dry air, from the Spanish plateau. The modified Spanish plume is associated with a slowly moving mature frontal system associated with a forward tilting trough (and possibly cut-off low) at 500 hPa that evolves according to idealised life cycle 2. As in the classical Spanish plume, conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected northwards from Iberia. The less frequent European easterly plume is associated with an omega block centred over Scandinavia at upper levels. Conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected westwards across northern continental Europe. Unlike the Spanish plume environments, the European easterly plume is not a warm sector phenomena associated with a baroclinic cyclone. However, in all environments the organisation of convection is associated with the interaction of an upper-level disturbance with a low-level region of warm advection.

A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems

The transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere within deep convection was investigated using the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1. Three cases were simulated in which convective systems formed over the UK in the summer of 2005. For each of these three cases, simulations were performed on a grid having 4 km horizontal grid spacing in which the convection was parameterized and on a grid having 1 km horizontal grid spacing, which permitted explicit representation of the largest energy-containing scales of deep convection. Cross-tropopause transport was diagnosed using passive tracers that were initialized above the dynamically defined tropopause (2 potential vorticity unit surface) with a mixing ratio of 1. Although the synoptic-scale environment and triggering mechanisms varied between the cases, the total simulated transport was similar in all three cases. The total stratosphere-to-troposphere transport over the lifetime of the convective systems ranged from 25 to 100 kg/m2 across the simulated convective systems and resolutions, which corresponds to ∼5–20% of the total mass located within a stratospheric column extending 2 km above the tropopause. In all simulations, the transport into the lower troposphere (defined as below 3.5 km elevation) accounted for ∼1% of the total transport across the tropopause. In the 4 km runs most of the transport was due to parameterized convection, whereas in the 1 km runs the transport was due to explicitly resolved convection. The largest difference between the simulations with different resolutions occurred in the one case of midlevel convection considered, in which the total transport in the 1 km grid spacing simulation with explicit convection was 4 times that in the 4 km grid spacing simulation with parameterized convection. Although the total cross-tropopause transport was similar, stratospheric tracer was deposited more deeply to near-surface elevations in the convection-parameterizing simulations than in convection-permitting simulations.

Influence of summertime mesoscale convective systems on the heat balance and surface mixed layer dynamics of a large Amazonian hydroelectric reservoir

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Microphysical Structure of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-05

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium

The validity of convective parametrization breaks down at the resolution of mesoscale models, and the success of parametrized versus explicit treatments of convection is likely to depend on the large-scale environment. In this paper we examine the hypothesis that a key feature determining the sensitivity to the environment is whether the forcing of convection is sufficiently homogeneous and slowly varying that the convection can be considered to be in equilibrium. Two case studies of mesoscale convective systems over the UK, one where equilibrium conditions are expected and one where equilibrium is unlikely, are simulated using a mesoscale forecasting model. The time evolution of area-average convective available potential energy and the time evolution and magnitude of the timescale of convective adjustment are consistent with the hypothesis of equilibrium for case 1 and non-equilibrium for case 2. For each case, three experiments are performed with different partitionings between parametrized and explicit convection: fully parametrized convection, fully explicit convection and a simulation with significant amounts of both. In the equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are insensitive to the treatment of convection. However, the detailed structure of the precipitation field changes; the simulation with parametrized convection behaves well and produces a smooth field that follows the forcing region, and the simulation with explicit convection has a small number of localized intense regions of precipitation that track with the mid-levelflow. For the non-equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are sensitive to the treatment of convection. The simulation with explicit convection behaves similarly to the equilibrium case with a few localized precipitation regions. In contrast, the cumulus parametrization fails dramatically and develops intense propagating bows of precipitation that were not observed. The simulations with both parametrized and explicit convection follow the pattern seen in the other experiments, with a transition over the duration of the run from parametrized to explicit precipitation. The impact of convection on the large-scaleflow, as measured by upper-level wind and potential-vorticity perturbations, is very sensitive to the partitioning of convection for both cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright.

Polarimetric Signatures in the Stratiform Region of a Mesoscale Convective System

Four polarimetric measurands were collected in the stratiform region of a mesoscale convective system. The four are the reflectivity factor, the differential reflectivity, the correlation coefficient between orthogonal copolar echoes, and the differential propagation constant. Most striking is a signature of large aggregates (about 10 mm in size) seen in the differential phase through the melting layer. Another significant feature is an abrupt notch in the correlation coefficient that occurs towards the bottom of the bright band. Aircraft observations and a one-dimensional cloud model are used to explain some polarimetric measurements and to infer the presence of aggregates, graupel, and supercooled cloud water in the stratiform region. These unique observations and model data provide inferences concerning the presence of graupel and the growth of large aggregates in the melting layer.

Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.

Lightning and precipitation produced by severe weather systems over Belém, Brazil

Eventos de raios nuvem-solo registrados pela rede de detecção do SIPAM, integrada por 12 sensores VAISALA LPATS IV, distribuídos no leste da Amazônia, foram analisados durante 4 tempestades com ocorrência de precipitação intensa em Belém-PA-Brasil, em 2006-2007. Esses casos selecionados, correspondem a eventos de chuva com mais de 25 mm/hora ou 40 mm/ 2 horas, de precipitação registrada por um pluviômetro instalado em 1º 47' 53" and 48º 30' 16" O. Com centro nessa localização, um círculos de 30, 10 e 5 km de raio foram traçados através de um sistema de informação geográfica e os dados de eventos de raios nessas áreas foram separados para analise. Durante essas tempestades, os eventos de raios ocorreram de maneira quase aleatória, sobre a área maior que já havia sido previamente coberta por sistemas convectivos de mesoescala, em todos os casos. Esse trabalho também mostrou a grande influencia dos sistemas de larga escala nas condições de tempo que levaram às tempestades severas estudadas. Adicionalmente, foi observado que, quando existe interação entre sistemas de larga e meso escalas, tanto a precipitação como o numero de relâmpagos aumentaram significativamente e a atividade elétrica nos círculos maiores pode anteceder a chuva no ponto central.

Idealized modeling of the role of stability and shear on mesoscale gravity wave evolution

Mesoscale Gravity Waves (MGWs) are large pressure perturbations that form in the presence of a stable layer at the surface either behind Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in summer or over warm frontal surfaces behind elevated convection in winter. MGWs are associated with damaging winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and occasional heat bursts at the surface. The forcing mechanism for MGWs in this study is hypothesized to be evaporative cooling occurring behind a convective line. This evaporatively-cooled air generates a downdraft that then depresses the surface-based stable layer and causes pressure decreases, strong wind speeds and MGW genesis. Using the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) version 3.0, evaporative cooling is simulated using an imposed cold thermal. Sensitivity studies examine the response of MGW structure to different thermal and shear profiles where the strength and depth of the inversion are varied, as well as the amount of wind shear. MGWs are characterized in terms of response variables, such as wind speed perturbations (U'), temperature perturbations (T'), pressure perturbations (P'), potential temperature perturbations (Θ'), and the correlation coefficient (R) between U' and P'. Regime Diagrams portray the response of MGW to the above variables in order to better understand the formation, causes, and intensity of MGWs. The results of this study indicate that shallow, weak surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of elevation. Conversely, deep strong surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of depression. This is also the type of atmospheric setup that tends to produce substantial surface heating at the surface.

An overview of Earth's global electric circuit and atmospheric conductivity

The Earth’s global atmospheric electric circuit depends on the upper and lower atmospheric boundaries formed by the ionosphere and the planetary surface. Thunderstorms and electrified rain clouds drive a DC current (∼1 kA) around the circuit, with the current carried by molecular cluster ions; lightning phenomena drive the AC global circuit. The Earth’s near-surface conductivity ranges from 10−7 S m−1 (for poorly conducting rocks) to 10−2 S m−1 (for clay or wet limestone), with a mean value of 3.2 S m−1 for the ocean. Air conductivity inside a thundercloud, and in fair weather regions, depends on location (especially geomagnetic latitude), aerosol pollution and height, and varies from ∼10−14 S m−1 just above the surface to 10−7 S m−1 in the ionosphere at ∼80 km altitude. Ionospheric conductivity is a tensor quantity due to the geomagnetic field, and is determined by parameters such as electron density and electron–neutral particle collision frequency. In the current source regions, point discharge (coronal) currents play an important role below electrified clouds; the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo and the unipolar dynamo due to the terrestrial rotating dipole moment also apply atmospheric potential differences. Detailed measurements made near the Earth’s surface show that Ohm’s law relates the vertical electric field and current density to air conductivity. Stratospheric balloon measurements launched from Antarctica confirm that the downward current density is ∼1 pA m−2 under fair weather conditions. Fortuitously, a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event arrived at Earth during one such balloon flight, changing the observed atmospheric conductivity and electric fields markedly. Recent modelling considers lightning discharge effects on the ionosphere’s electric potential (∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface) and hence on the fair weather potential gradient (typically ∼130 V m−1 close to the Earth’s surface. We conclude that cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges make only a small contribution to the ionospheric potential, and that sprites (namely, upward lightning above energetic thunderstorms) only affect the global circuit in a miniscule way. We also investigate the effects of mesoscale convective systems on the global circuit.

An overview of Earth’s global electric circuit and atmospheric conductivity

The Earth’s global atmospheric electric circuit depends on the upper and lower atmospheric boundaries formed by the ionosphere and the planetary surface. Thunderstorms and electrified rain clouds drive a DC current (∼1 kA) around the circuit, with the current carried by molecular cluster ions; lightning phenomena drive the AC global circuit. The Earth’s near-surface conductivity ranges from 10−7 S m−1 (for poorly conducting rocks) to 10−2 S m−1 (for clay or wet limestone), with a mean value of 3.2 S m−1 for the ocean. Air conductivity inside a thundercloud, and in fair weather regions, depends on location (especially geomagnetic latitude), aerosol pollution and height, and varies from ∼10−14 S m−1 just above the surface to 10−7 S m−1 in the ionosphere at ∼80 km altitude. Ionospheric conductivity is a tensor quantity due to the geomagnetic field, and is determined by parameters such as electron density and electron–neutral particle collision frequency. In the current source regions, point discharge (coronal) currents play an important role below electrified clouds; the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo and the unipolar dynamo due to the terrestrial rotating dipole moment also apply atmospheric potential differences. Detailed measurements made near the Earth’s surface show that Ohm’s law relates the vertical electric field and current density to air conductivity. Stratospheric balloon measurements launched from Antarctica confirm that the downward current density is ∼1 pA m−2 under fair weather conditions. Fortuitously, a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event arrived at Earth during one such balloon flight, changing the observed atmospheric conductivity and electric fields markedly. Recent modelling considers lightning discharge effects on the ionosphere’s electric potential (∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface) and hence on the fair weather potential gradient (typically ∼130 V m−1 close to the Earth’s surface. We conclude that cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges make only a small contribution to the ionospheric potential, and that sprites (namely, upward lightning above energetic thunderstorms) only affect the global circuit in a miniscule way. We also investigate the effects of mesoscale convective systems on the global circuit.

The diurnal cycle in the tropics

A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude–longitude grid) window (11–12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land–sea and mountain–valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.