Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Formación de capital humano y el vínculo entre comercio y pobreza: los casos de Costa Rica y Nicaragua

Incluye Bibliografía

Reformas económicas, régimen cambiario y choques externos: efectos en el desarrollo económico, la desigualdad y la pobreza en Costa Rica, El Salvador y Honduras

Incluye Bibliografía

El Fondo de Estabilización de Precios del Petróleo (FEPP) y el mercado de los derivados en Chile

Incluye Bibliografía

Implicaciones de la política macroeconómica, los choques externos y los sistemas de protección social en la pobreza, la desigualdad y la vulnerabilidad en América Latina y el Caribe: Colombia

Incluye bibliografía

La economía del cambio climático en Bolivia: Estimación de impactos en equilibrio general

En los últimos años se ha visto el desarrollo de una gran cantidad de estudios sobre los efectos del cambio climático en diversos sectores y países. Sin embargo, en general estos estudios son parciales y no llegan a incluir los impactos indirectos y dinámicos que surgirán a causa de los efectos sectoriales más obvios y directos. El propósito del presente estudio es demostrar cómo se puede integrar los efectos directos del cambio climático en un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC) para analizar los efectos indirectos y dinámicos, y así llegar a obtener una mayor percepción sobre el impacto real que este fenómeno podría tener sobre la economía boliviana. Los resultados muestran que los impactos indirectos y dinámicos son entre dos y cuatro veces mayores que los efectos directos, lo que muestra la importancia de desarrollar instrumentos que permitan su estimación e inclusión en estudios sobre los impactos del cambio climático.

Untersuchungen zur Regulation der Basenfehlpaarungsreparatur und zur Zytostatikaresistenz in Säugerzellen

In der vorliegenden Arbeit konnte gezeigt werden, daß eine Behandlung von Säugerzellen mit O6-Methylguanin generierenden Substanzen zu einer Zunahme der GT-Bindungsaktivität und zu einer Translokation der MMR-Proteine MSH2, MSH6 und PMS2 aus dem Cytoplasma in den Zellkern führt. Versuche mit MSH6-defizienten DLD1-Zellen und Coimmunpräzipitationsversuche zeigten, daß der MutSalpha-Komplex (MSH2+MSH6) bereits im Cytoplasma gebildet wird und daß die Translokation von MSH2 nur im Komplex mit MSH6 erfolgt. Durch die Untersuchung von Zellinien mit unterschiedlichem MGMT-Status konnte gezeigt werden, daß der DNA-Alkylierungsschaden O6-Methylguanin (O6-MeG) in Form des O6-MeGC oder O6-MeGT-Basenpaars das initiale Signal für die nukleäre Translokation von MutSalpha darstellt. Untersuchungen zur post-translationalen Modifikation der MMR-Proteine zeigten, daß MSH2 und MSH6 sowohl in vivo als auch in vitro durch die Proteinkinase C (PKC) und die Casein Kinase II (CKII) phosphoryliert werden. Es konnte gezeigt werden, daß die Phosphorylierung von MutSalpha die Effektivität der Bindung an Basenfehlpaarungen beeinflußt, da unphosphoryliertes MutSalpha in vitro nicht effektiv an GT-Fehlpaarungen binden kann. Bei der Untersuchung der Resistenzentwicklung von Melanomzellen gegenüber Zytostatika konnte gezeigt werden daß die Resistenz gegenüber Fotemustin auf einer Erhöhung der Menge des Reparaturproteins O6-Methylguanin-DNA-Methyltransferase (MGMT) beruht. Die Reaktivierung des MGMT-Gens beruht seinerseits auf einer CpG-Hypermethylierung im kodierenden Bereichs des Gens.

湾岸およびインド洋地域の安全保障と日本

In this paper, first we look back at the activities of the JMSDF in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf for the past 10-20 years from the view-point of contributions to security in the regions, and Japan's defence and diplomatic policies. In addition we would like to consider the situation that Japan has currently been placed in, or the primary factors of the change of power balance caused by China's foreign expansion and US gradual troop reductions, and economic conditions and energy supply problems after the earthquake disaster, as well as the returning of the LDP Administration. Each of these affects Japan's defence and diplomatic policies, and Japanese approach to Gulf countries is to be precisely understood in this context. For Japan, the importance of relationships with Gulf countries will surely increase in the foreseeable future. However the immediate addition of the JMSDF's force in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf Region is difficult. So Japan's role in regional security will probably be depending on the licensing of technology to India and Gulf countries, plus the construction of collaborative systems devoted to the training and support of highly proficient personnel. China will have a competitive relationship with Japan over access to the energy supply sources and the markets in Gulf countries, and it will be necessary to employ such systems for the purpose of international trust building and preventing of any free-ride.

Migration, labor and business in the worlding cities of the Arabian Peninsula

This short essay, built on a foundation of more than a decade of fieldwork in the hydrocarbon-rich societies of the Arabian peninsula, distills a set of overarching threads woven through much of that time and work. Those threads include a discussion of the social heterogeneity of the Gulf State citizenries, the central role of development and urban development in these emergent economies, the multifaceted impact of migrants and migration upon these host societies, and the role of foreign 'imagineers' in the portrayal of Gulf societies, Gulf values, and Gulf social norms.

Authoritarianism and labor market : preference of labor policies in the Arab Gulf countries

Migrant and labor issues are a primary concern in the Arab Gulf countries. With focus on the economic and political conditions that influence actors' decisions when framing labor policies, this study analyzes how preferences of such policies are formed and explains why the governments of the Arab Gulf countries attempt to implement less economical policies. The findings suggest that governments avoid concessions for enterprises required to implement more economical policies and chose uneconomical ones to maintain authoritarian regimes.

State-business relations in the smaller gulf monarchies -- the role of business actors in the decision-making process

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).

Le boom pétrolier et le syndrome hollandais au Cameroun: Symptômes et canaux de transmissions

Modèle d’équilibre général calculable