Modeling stochastic hybrid systems

Stochastic hybrid systems arise in numerous applications of systems with multiple models; e.g., air traffc management, flexible manufacturing systems, fault tolerant control systems etc. In a typical hybrid system, the state space is hybrid in the sense that some components take values in a Euclidean space, while some other components are discrete. In this paper we propose two stochastic hybrid models, both of which permit diffusion and hybrid jump. Such models are essential for studying air traffic management in a stochastic framework.

Modeling the effect of lead-free soldering on flexible substrates

Flexible Circuit Boards (FPCs) are now being widely used in the electronic industries especially in the areas of electronic packages. Due to European lead-free legislation which has been implemented since July 2006, electronic packaging industries have to switch to use in the lead-free soldering technology. This change has posed a number of challenges in terms of development of lead-free solders and compatible substrates. An increase of at least 20-50 degrees in the reflow temperature is a concern and substantial research is required to investigate a sustainable design of flexible circuit boards as carrier substrates. This paper investigates a number of design variables such as copper conductor width, type of substrate materials, effect of insulating materials, etc. Computer modeling has been used to investigate thermo-mechanical behavior, and reliability, of flexible substrates after they have been subjected to a lead- free solder processing. Results will show particular designs that behave better for a particular rise in peak reflow temperature. Also presented will be the types of failures that can occur in these substrates and what particular materials are more reliable.

Modeling spontaneous three-dimensional polymerization

For human beings, the origin of life has always been an interesting and mysterious matter, particularly how life arose from inorganic matter through natural processes. Polymerization is always involved in such processes. In this paper we built what we refer to as ideal and physical models to simulate spontaneous polymerization based on certain physical principles. As the modeling confirms, without taking external energy, small and simple inorganic molecules formed bigger and more complicated molecules, which are necessary ingredients of all living organisms. In our simulations, we utilized actual ranges of parameters according to their experimentally observed values. The results from the simulations led to a good agreement with the nature of polymerization. After sorting out through all the models that were built, we arrived at a final model that, it is hoped, can be used to simply and efficiently describe spontaneous polymerization using only three parameters: the dipole moment, the distance between molecules, and the temperature.

Promoting interdisciplinarity through mathematical modelling

This article presents one approach to addressing the important issue of interdisciplinarity in the primary school mathematics curriculum, namely, through realistic mathematical modelling problems. Such problems draw upon other disciplines for their contexts and data. The article initially considers the nature of modelling with complex systems and discusses how such experiences differ from existing problem-solving activities in the primary mathematics curriculum. Principles for designing interdisciplinary modelling problems are then addressed, with reference to two mathematical modelling problems— one based in the scientific domain and the other in the literary domain. Examples of the models children have created in solving these problems follow. A reflection on the differences in the diversity and sophistication of these models raises issues regarding the design of interdisciplinary modelling problems. The article concludes with suggested opportunities for generating multidisciplinary projects within the regular mathematics curriculum.

Modélisation du carnet d'ordres limites et prévision de séries temporelles

Le contenu de cette thèse est divisé de la façon suivante. Après un premier chapitre d’introduction, le Chapitre 2 est consacré à introduire aussi simplement que possible certaines des théories qui seront utilisées dans les deux premiers articles. Dans un premier temps, nous discuterons des points importants pour la construction de l’intégrale stochastique par rapport aux semimartingales avec paramètre spatial. Ensuite, nous décrirons les principaux résultats de la théorie de l’évaluation en monde neutre au risque et, finalement, nous donnerons une brève description d’une méthode d’optimisation connue sous le nom de dualité. Les Chapitres 3 et 4 traitent de la modélisation de l’illiquidité et font l’objet de deux articles. Le premier propose un modèle en temps continu pour la structure et le comportement du carnet d’ordres limites. Le comportement du portefeuille d’un investisseur utilisant des ordres de marché est déduit et des conditions permettant d’éliminer les possibilités d’arbitrages sont données. Grâce à la formule d’Itô généralisée il est aussi possible d’écrire la valeur du portefeuille comme une équation différentielle stochastique. Un exemple complet de modèle de marché est présenté de même qu’une méthode de calibrage. Dans le deuxième article, écrit en collaboration avec Bruno Rémillard, nous proposons un modèle similaire mais cette fois-ci en temps discret. La question de tarification des produits dérivés est étudiée et des solutions pour le prix des options européennes de vente et d’achat sont données sous forme explicite. Des conditions spécifiques à ce modèle qui permettent d’éliminer l’arbitrage sont aussi données. Grâce à la méthode duale, nous montrons qu’il est aussi possible d’écrire le prix des options européennes comme un problème d’optimisation d’une espérance sur en ensemble de mesures de probabilité. Le Chapitre 5 contient le troisième article de la thèse et porte sur un sujet différent. Dans cet article, aussi écrit en collaboration avec Bruno Rémillard, nous proposons une méthode de prévision des séries temporelles basée sur les copules multivariées. Afin de mieux comprendre le gain en performance que donne cette méthode, nous étudions à l’aide d’expériences numériques l’effet de la force et la structure de dépendance sur les prévisions. Puisque les copules permettent d’isoler la structure de dépendance et les distributions marginales, nous étudions l’impact de différentes distributions marginales sur la performance des prévisions. Finalement, nous étudions aussi l’effet des erreurs d’estimation sur la performance des prévisions. Dans tous les cas, nous comparons la performance des prévisions en utilisant des prévisions provenant d’une série bivariée et d’une série univariée, ce qui permet d’illustrer l’avantage de cette méthode. Dans un intérêt plus pratique, nous présentons une application complète sur des données financières.

A importância da matemática e da modelação matemática no mestrado integrado em ciências farmacêuticas

A Matemática e as Ciências Farmacêuticas encontram-se relacionadas desde há muito, no entanto, foi a partir do séc. XVII, período de notável agitação cultural e científico que os métodos experimentais foram sustentados com cálculos matemáticos. Esta ciência e as técnicas de modelagem matemática tornaram-se numa ferramenta amplamente utilizada, de tal modo, que nos dias de hoje são consideradas como fundamentais na generalidade das profissões e em especial nas Ciências Farmacêuticas. Contudo, para muitos ainda não é vista como fundamental e essencial para a formação de futuros farmacêuticos. Deste modo, pretende-se demonstrar como a Matemática e as técnicas de modelagem se tornaram ao longo dos anos nesta poderosa ferramenta. Quer pelos instrumentos, quer pelas competências que nos proporcionam. Pretende-se também, com recurso aos conteúdos programáticos desta unidade curricular, avaliar se os conhecimentos, sistemas de avaliação e distribuição da carga horária são efetuados de forma homogénea pelas diferentes instituições portuguesas, públicas ou privadas que lecionam o Mestrado Integrado em Ciências Farmacêuticas. Verificou-se que a Matemática é uma ciência plena de capacidades e recursos e que estabelece uma relação interdisciplinar com as Ciências Farmacêuticas. Quer pela componente utilitária, quer pela componente formativa que proporciona. A análise dos conteúdos programáticos demonstra que apesar de serem transversais, as Universidades que não lecionam Sistemas de Equações Lineares e Equações diferenciais deveriam faze-lo e também realizarem um melhor controlo da carga horária por temática.

Modelando matematicamente questões ambientais relacionadas com a água a propósito do ensino-aprendizagem de funções na 1ª série do ensino médio

Este trabalho apresenta uma forma possível de se conceber e materializar a Modelagem Matemática como método de ensino-aprendizagem em cursos regulares. Tal perspectiva de Modelagem foi organizada após considerações feitas sobre os obstáculos já apontados por aqueles que nos antecederam na área. Para observar como a professora e os alunos se envolvem em atividades de Modelagem e discutir, à luz de todo o conhecimento já produzido por pesquisas anteriores, os efeitos desse envolvimento para a prática docente no referido método, para a formação geral do educando bem como para o processo de ensino-aprendizagem da Matemática, a proposta de Modelagem foi aplicada em uma turma de primeira série do ensino Médio e avaliada quanto à produção de aprendizagens significativas de funções polinomiais do 10 e 20 graus, função exponencial e logaritmos, com enfoques de ferramentas para a compreensão de questões ambientais relacionadas com a água. Os resultados obtidos apontam que o ensino por Modelagem pode levar o aluno a tomar-se co-participe de seu processo de ensino-aprendizagem e, por conseqüência, ter sua aprendizagem signifIcativa facilitada. Por outro lado, para o professor, entre o reconhecimento das vantagens quanto à utilização da Modelagem para o ensino e a sua aplicação, existe um caminho permeado de estudo e de pesquisa, que, para ser trilhado precisa de disposição e audácia para vencer os obstáculos que se afigurem.

Matemática e Cartografia: como a cartografia pode contribuir no processo de ensino-aprendizagem da matemática?

O Ensino da Matemática vem sofrendo transformações, ao longo dos últimos anos, com o intuito de tornar-se mais prazeroso e menos desgastante para o aluno, contribuindo dessa forma para a melhoria do seu aprendizado. A busca do aperfeiçoamento do ensino da Matemática, através de metodologias, alternativas é a tônica no momento. A modelagem matemática representa uma dessas metodologias. Utilizando seus preceitos e orientações, o presente trabalho objetiva associar a cartografia como modelo matemático, as ferramentas contemporâneas que alicerçam o processo de ensino-aprendizagem da Matemática. A cartografia, entendida como um conjunto de tecnologias de interpretação e de representação gráfica da superfície terrestre, cujos fundamentos são essencialmente matemáticos, tem-se constituído uma grande ferramenta de representação de dados e informações da superfície por diversos profissionais. Neste trabalho, advoga-se a favor da sua aplicação através da modelagem matemática para o processo de fortalecimento do ensino-aprendizagem da Matemática.

Cogeração em uma indústria automobilística

The search for energy efficiency improvement is a common concern in many companies. Cogeneration is a well known technique but not so spread in Brazil, despite its potential for energy costs reduction through heat recovery from prime movers. In this work, a preliminary technical and economic study is carried out for a cogeneration plant application in an automotive industry of São Paulo. Though mathematics modeling, three 2435 kW internal combustion engines are selected. When compared to the current status (no cogeneration), annual savings of about 2,2 MR$ are obtained, resulting a almost 3 years payback

Modeling as a bridge between real world problems and school mathematics

This article argues for an interdisciplinary approach to mathematical problem solving at the elementary school, one that draws upon the engineering domain. A modeling approach, using engineering model eliciting activities, might provide a rich source of meaningful situations that capitalize on and extend students’ existing mathematical learning. The study reports on the developments of 48 twelve-year old students who worked on the Bridge Design activity. Results revealed that young students, even before formal instruction, have the capacity to deal with complex interdisciplinary problems. A number of students created quite appropriate models by developing the necessary mathematical constructs to solve the problem. Students’ difficulties in mathematizing the problem, and in revising and documenting their models are presented and analysed, followed by a discussion on the appropriateness of a modeling approach as a means for introducing complex problems to elementary school students.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Integrating engineering education in the middle school mathematics curriculum

Many nations are experiencing a decline in the number of graduating engineers, an overall poor preparedness for engineering studies in tertiary institutions, and a lack of diversity in the field. Given the increasing importance of mathematics, science, engineering, and technology in our world, it is imperative that we foster an interest and drive to participate in engineering from an early age. This discuission paper argues for the intergration of engineering education within the elementary and middle school mathematics curricula. In doing so, we offer a definition of engineering education and address its core goals; consider some perceptions of engineering and engineering education held by teachers and students; and offer one approach to promoting engineering education within the elementary and middle school mathematics curriculum, namely through mathematical modeling.

Integrating engineering education within the elementary and middle school mathematics curriculum

Many nations are experiencing a decline in the number of graduating engineers, an overall poor preparedness for engineering studies in tertiary institutions, and a lack of diversity in the field. Given the increasing importance of mathematics, science, engineering, and technology in our world, it is imperative that we foster an interest and drive to participate in engineering from an early age. This discussion paper argues for the integration of engineering education within the elementary and middle school mathematics curricula. In doing so, we offer a definition of engineering education and address its core goals; consider some perceptions of engineering and engineering education held by teachers and students; and offer one approach to promoting engineering education within the elementary and middle school mathematics curriculum, namely through mathematical modeling.