模拟引潮力作用下岩石破坏前兆的实验研究 --加卸载响应比(LURR)理论和能量加速释放(AER)

大地震前加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放这2种现象可以用来对地震进行中期预报.同时,加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放有相同的物理机制.实验对于揭示地壳岩石的变形和破坏规律是非常重要的.在三轴应力条件下进行了岩石破坏声发射实验,声发射技术是研究岩石变形破坏微观机理的重要手段.为了模拟日月引潮力对地球的加载和卸载作用,在一常数加载率的轴向压力作用下,叠加上微小的正弦扰动,力求能够模拟地下岩石复杂的受力状态.实验过程中记录到大量的声发射信息,声发射记录包括声发射发生的时间、空间坐标和振幅,它能够反映岩石试件内部每一

LURR's Twenty Years and Its Perspective

Seismogenic process is a nonlinear and irreversible one, so that the response to loading of a seismogenic zone is different from the unloading one. This difference reflects quantitatively the process of an earthquake preparation. A physics-based new parameter-Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure quantitatively the proximity to a strong earthquake and then used to be an earthquake predictor. In the present paper, a brief history of LURR is recalled; inspection of real earthquake cases, numerical simulations and laboratory studies of LURR, prediction efforts in terms of LURR, probability problem of LURR and its prospect are also expatiated.

Characters of variation of LURR during the earthquake sequence of Xinjiang

The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes In the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short-term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

Fast Computing For Lurr Of Earthquake Prediction

The LURR theory is a new approach for earthquake prediction, which achieves good results in earthquake prediction within the China mainland and regions in America, Japan and Australia. However, the expansion of the prediction region leads to the refinement of its longitude and latitude, and the increase of the time period. This requires increasingly more computations, and the volume of data reaches the order of GB, which will be very difficult for a single CPU. In this paper, a new method was introduced to solve this problem. Adopting the technology of domain decomposition and parallelizing using MPI, we developed a new parallel tempo-spatial scanning program.

加卸载响应比(LURR)响应量的研究

加卸载响应比(LURR)理论以响应比值Y来刻画孕震区介质的损伤演化进程.在计算Y值时可选择能量(Benioff应变)、模量(应变)等多种物理量做响应.本文通过理论和实验方法对使用不同响应量时Y值演化趋势的异同进行了研究,结果表明在Y达到峰值之前具有相似地演化过程.

加卸载响应比(LURR)、矩／能量加速释放(AM/ER)、态矢量:岩石试件破坏前兆的实验研究

为了验证大地震发生前或者非均匀脆性介质宏观破坏前加卸载响应比和能量加速释放等前兆现象,本文进行了三轴应力(压缩)条件下大尺度岩石破坏声发射实验。实验采用4组岩石试件,并且分为单调加载和循环加载两种方式。实验结果证明了脆性材料宏观破坏前加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放这两种前兆现象。本文提出了一种描述岩石试件损伤演化的新的物理量——态矢量。

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.