Working papers.

Mode of access: Internet.

Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, central coastal British Columbia, Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake.

A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.

Investigations on fossil bivalves and wood from Seymour Island, Antarctica

Quasi-periodic variation in sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure in the equatorial Pacific known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of interannual variability in global climate. A collapse of the tropical Pacific onto a state resembling a so-called 'permanent El Niño', with a preferentially warmed eastern equatorial Pacific, flatter thermocline, and reduced interannual variability, in a warmer world is predicted by prevailing ENSO theory. If correct, future warming will be accompanied by a shift toward persistent conditions resembling El Niño years today, with major implications for global hydrological cycles and consequent impacts on socioeconomic and ecological systems. However, much uncertainty remains about how interannual variability will be affected. Here, we present multi-annual records of climate derived from growth increment widths in fossil bivalves and co-occurring driftwood from the Antarctic peninsula that demonstrate significant variability in the quasi-biennial and 3-6 year bands consistent with ENSO, despite early Eocene (~50 Mya) greenhouse conditions with global average temperature -10 degrees higher than today. A coupled climate model suggests an ENSO signal and teleconnections to this region during the Eocene, much like today. The presence of ENSO variation during this markedly warmer interval argues for the persistence of robust interannual variability in our future greenhouse world.