Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-term data from the Swiss pulmonary hypertension registry.

BACKGROUND Registries are important for real-life epidemiology on different pulmonary hypertension (PH) groups. OBJECTIVE To provide long-term data of the Swiss PH registry of 1998-2012. METHODS PH patients have been classified into 5 groups and registered upon written informed consent at 5 university and 8 associated hospitals since 1998. New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, 6-min walk distance, hemodynamics and therapy were registered at baseline. Patients were regularly followed, and therapy and events (death, transplantation, endarterectomy or loss to follow-up) registered. The data were stratified according to the time of diagnosis into prevalent before 2000 and incident during 2000-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012. RESULTS From 996 (53% female) PH patients, 549 had pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), 36 PH due to left heart disease, 127 due to lung disease, 249 to chronic thromboembolic PH (CTEPH) and 35 to miscellaneous PH. Age and BMI significantly increased over time, whereas hemodynamic severity decreased. Overall, event-free survival was 84, 72, 64 and 58% for the years 1-4 and similar for time periods since 2000, but better during the more recent periods for PAH and CTEPH. Of all PAH cases, 89% had target medical therapy and 43% combination therapy. Of CTEPH patients, 14 and 2% underwent pulmonary endarterectomy or transplantation, respectively; 87% were treated with PAH target therapy. CONCLUSION Since 2000, the incident Swiss PH patients registered were older, hemodynamically better and mostly treated with PAH target therapies. Survival has been better for PAH and CTEPH diagnosed since 2008 compared with earlier diagnosis or other classifications.

Quantitative Comparison of Plant Community Hydrology Using Large-Extent, Long-Term Data

Large-extent vegetation datasets that co-occur with long-term hydrology data provide new ways to develop biologically meaningful hydrologic variables and to determine plant community responses to hydrology. We analyzed the suitability of different hydrological variables to predict vegetation in two water conservation areas (WCAs) in the Florida Everglades, USA, and developed metrics to define realized hydrologic optima and tolerances. Using vegetation data spatially co-located with long-term hydrological records, we evaluated seven variables describing water depth, hydroperiod length, and number of wet/dry events; each variable was tested for 2-, 4- and 10-year intervals for Julian annual averages and environmentally-defined hydrologic intervals. Maximum length and maximum water depth during the wet period calculated for environmentally-defined hydrologic intervals over a 4-year period were the best predictors of vegetation type. Proportional abundance of vegetation types along hydrological gradients indicated that communities had different realized optima and tolerances across WCAs. Although in both WCAs, the trees/shrubs class was on the drier/shallower end of hydrological gradients, while slough communities occupied the wetter/deeper end, the distribution ofCladium, Typha, wet prairie and Salix communities, which were intermediate for most hydrological variables, varied in proportional abundance along hydrologic gradients between WCAs, indicating that realized optima and tolerances are context-dependent.

An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Surprises and Insights from Long-Term Aquatic Data Sets and Experiments

long-term research on freshwater ecosystems provides insights that can be difficult to obtain from other approaches. Widespread monitoring of ecologically relevant water-quality parameters spanning decades can facilitate important tests of ecological principles. Unique long-term data sets and analytical tools are increasingly available, allowing for powerful and synthetic analyses across sites. long-term measurements or experiments in aquatic systems can catch rare events, changes in highly variable systems, time-lagged responses, cumulative effects of stressors, and biotic responses that encompass multiple generations. Data are available from formal networks, local to international agencies, private organizations, various institutions, and paleontological and historic records; brief literature surveys suggest much existing data are not synthesized. Ecological sciences will benefit from careful maintenance and analyses of existing long-term programs, and subsequent insights can aid in the design of effective future long-term experimental and observational efforts. long-term research on freshwaters is particularly important because of their value to humanity.

Long-term outcomes following Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit

Aortic root replacement is a complex procedure, though subsequent modifications of the original Bentall procedure have made surgery more reproducible. The study aim was to examine the outcomes of a modified Bentall procedure, using the Medtronic Open PivotTM valved conduit. Whilst short-term data on the conduit and long-term data on the valve itself are available, little is known of the long-term results with the valved conduit. Patients undergoing aortic root replacement between February 1999 and February 2010, using the Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit were identified from the prospectively collected Cardiothoracic Register at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. All patients were followed up echocardiographically and clinically. The primary end-point was death, and a Cox proportional model was used to identify factors associated.with survival. Secondary end-points were valve-related morbidity (as defined by STS guidelines) and postoperative morbidity. Predictors of morbidity were identified using logistic regression. A total of 246 patients (mean age 50 years) was included in the study. The overall mortality was 12%, with actuarial 10-year survival 79% and a 10-year estimate of valve-related death of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.004, 0.07). Preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.004, HR 4.74), urgency of operation (p = 0.038, HR 2.8) and 10% incremental decreases in ejection fraction (p = 0.046, HR 0.69) were predictive of mortality. Survival was also affected by the valve gradients, with a unit increase in peak gradient reducing mortality (p = 0.021, HR 0.93). Valve-related morbidity occurred in 11 patients. Urgent surgery (p <0.001, OR 4.12), aortic dissection (p = 0.015, OR 3.35), calcific aortic stenosis (p = 0.016, OR 2.35) and Marfan syndrome (p 0.009, OR 3.75) were predictive of postoperative morbidity. The reoperation rate was 1.2%. The Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit is a safe and durable option for aortic root replacement, and is associated with low morbidity and 10-year survival of 79%. However, further studies are required to determine the effect of valve gradient on survival.

Long-Term Oceanographic and Ecological Research in the Western English Channel

Long-term research in the western English Channel, undertaken by the marine laboratories in Plymouth, is described and details of survey methods, sites, and time series given in this chapter. Major findings are summarized and their limitations outlined. Current research, with recent reestablishment and expansion of many sampling programmes, is presented, and possible future approaches are indicated. These unique long-term data sets provide an environmental baseline for predicting complex ecological responses to local, regional, and global environmental change. Between 1888 and the present, investigations have been carried out into the physical, chemical, and biological components (ranging from plankton and fish to benthic and intertidal assemblages) of the western English Channel ecosystem. The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom has performed the main body of these observations. More recent contributions come from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, now the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, dating from 1957; the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, from 1974 to 1987; and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, which was formed by amalgamation of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research and part of the Marine Biological Association, from 1988. Together, these contributions constitute a unique data series; one of the longest and most comprehensive samplings of environmental and marine biological variables in the world. Since the termination of many of these time series in 1987-1988 during a reorganisation of UK marine research, there has been a resurgence of interest in long-term environmental change. Many programmes have been restarted and expanded with support from several agencies. The observations span significant periods of warming (1921-1961; 1985-present) and cooling (1962-1980). During these periods of change, the abundance of key species underwent dramatic shifts. The first period of warming saw changes in zooplankton, pelagic fish, and larval fish, including the collapse of an important herring fishery. During later periods of change, shifts in species abundances have been reflected in other assemblages, such as the intertidal zone and the benthic fauna. Many of these changes appear to be related to climate, manifested as temperature changes, acting directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that climate is a forcing factor is widely supported today and has been reinforced by recent studies that show responses of marine organisms to climatic attributes such as the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The long-term data also yield important insights into the effects of anthropogenic disturbances such as fisheries exploitation and pollution. Comparison of demersal fish hauls over time highlights fisheries effects not only on commercially important species but also on the entire demersal community. The effects of acute ("Torrey Canyon" oil spill) and chronic (tributyltin [TBT] antifoulants) pollution are clearly seen in the intertidal records. Significant advances in diverse scientific disciplines have been generated from research undertaken alongside the long-term data series.

Long-Term Recurrence of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer after Topical Methylaminolevulinate Photodynamic Therapy in a Dermato-Oncology Department

BACKGROUND: Most available studies on the efficacy of topical photodynamic therapy focus on short-to medium-term results. Long-term data are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term efficacy of photodynamic therapy with topical methylaminolevulinate to treat Bowen's disease and basal cell carcinoma in the clinical practice setting of a dermato-oncology department. METHODS: The study included patients diagnosed with Bowen's disease or basal cell carcinoma, and who received photodynamic therapy from 2004 to 2008. Treatment protocol and clinical follow-up were standardized. The primary endpoint was clinically observed recurrence in a previous photodynamic therapy-treated area. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 31 Bowen's disease lesions and 44 superficial basal cell carcinoma were treated, with a median follow-up of 43.5 months. Recurrence was observed in 14 Bowen's disease lesions (53.8%) and in 11 superficial basal cell carcinoma (33.3%). Significantly higher estimates for recurrence rates were found in patients with Bowen's disease (p=0.0036) or those aged under 58 years (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with Bowen's disease than in those with superficial basal cell carcinoma and younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence should be considered when choosing to treat non-melanoma skin cancer with photodynamic therapy. Younger age and Bowen's disease were independent predictors for long-term recurrence, suggesting the need to establish an extended period of follow-up for this subset of patients.

Long-term follow-up of high-dose chemotherapy with autologous stem-cell transplantation and response-adapted whole-brain radiotherapy for newly diagnosed primary CNS lymphoma: results of the multicenter Ostdeutsche Studiengruppe Hamato-Onkologie OSHO-53 phase II study

Introduction: We previously reported the results of a phase II study for patients with newly diagnosed primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) treated with autologous peripheral blood stem-cell transplantation (aPBSCT) and responseadapted whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). The purpose of this report is to update the initial results and provide long-term data regarding overall survival, prognostic factors, and the risk of treatment-related neurotoxicity.Methods: A long-term follow-up was conducted on surviving primary central nervous system lymphoma patients having been treated according to the ,,OSHO-53 study", which was initiated by the Ostdeutsche Studiengruppe Hamatologie-Onkologie. Between August 1999 and October 2004 twentythree patients with an average age of 55 and median Karnofsky performance score of 70% were enrolled and received high-dose mthotrexate (HD-MTX) on days 1 and 10. In case of at least a partial remission (PR), high-dose busulfan/ thiotepa (HD-BuTT) followed by aPBSCT was performed. Patients without response to induction or without complete remission (CR) after HD-BuTT received WBRT. All patients (n=8), who are alive in 2011, were contacted and Mini Mental State examination (MMSE) and the EORTC QLQ-C30 were performed.Results: Eight patients are still alive with a median follow-up of 116,9 months (79 - 141, range). One of them suffered from a late relapse eight and a half years after initial diagnosis of PCNSL, another one suffers from a gall bladder carcinoma. Both patients are alive, the one with the relapse of PCNSL has finished rescue therapy and is further observed, the one with gall baldder carcinoma is still under therapy. MMSE and QlQ-C30 showed impressive results in the patients, who were not irradiated. Only one of the irradiated patients is still alive with a clear neurologic deficit but acceptable quality of life.Conclusions: Long-term follow-up of our patients, who were included in the OSHO-53 study show an overall survival of 30 percent. If WBRT can be avoided no long-term neurotoxicity has been observed and the patients benefit from excellent Quality of Life. Induction chemotherapy with two cycles of HD-MTX should be intensified to improve the unsatisfactory OAS of 30 percent.

Long-term safety of intramuscular gene transfer of non-viral FGF1 for peripheral artery disease

Peripheral artery disease is a progressive disease. Primary ischemic leg symptoms are muscle fatigue, discomfort or pain during ambulation, known as intermittent claudication. The most severe manifestation of peripheral artery disease is critical limb ischemia (CLI). The long-term safety of gene therapy in peripheral artery disease remains unclear. This four center peripheral artery disease registry was designed to evaluate the long-term safety of the intramuscular non-viral fibroblast growth factor-1 (NV1FGF), a plasmid-based angiogenic gene for local expression of fibroblast growth factor-1 versus placebo in patients with peripheral artery disease who had been included in five different phase I and II trials. Here we report a 3-year follow-up in patients suffering from CLI or intermittent claudication. There were 93 evaluable patients, 72 of them in Fontaine stage IV (47 NV1FGF versus 25 placebo) and 21 patients in Fontaine stage IIb peripheral artery disease (15 NV1FGF versus 6 placebo). Safety parameters included rates of non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, death, cancer, retinopathy and renal dysfunction. At 3 years, in 93 patients included this registry, there was no increase in retinopathy or renal dysfunction associated with delivery of this angiogenic factor. There was also no difference in the number of strokes, MI or deaths, respectively, for NV1FGF versus placebo. In the CLI group, new cancer occurred in two patients in the NV1FGF group. Conclusions that can be drawn from this relatively small patient group are limited because of the number of patients followed and can only be restricted to safety. Yet, data presented may be valuable concerning rates in cancer, retinopathy, MI or strokes following angiogenesis gene therapy in the absence of any long-term data in angiogenesis gene therapy. It may take several years until data from larger patient populations will become available.

Long-term cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality in women and men with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 30-year follow-up in Switzerland

While studies from other countries have shown an excess mortality in diabetic individuals when compared with the general population, comparable long-term data is not available for Switzerland.

Long-term impact of a weight management summer camp on obese children

Background: interventions that focus on improving eating habits, increasing physical activity, and reducing sedentary behaviors on weight status and body mass index percentile and z-scores in youths have not been well documented. This study aimed to determine the short and long term effects of a 2-week residential weight management summer camp program for youths on weight, BMI, BMI percentile, and BMI z-score. ^ Methods: A sample of 73 obese multiethnic 10-14 years old youths (11.9 ± 1.4) attended a weight management camp called Kamp K'aana for two weeks and completed a 12-month follow-up on height and weight. As part of Kamp K'aana, participants received a series of nutrition, physical activity and behavioral lessons and were on an 1800 kcal per day meal plan. Anthropometric measurements of height and weight were taken to calculate participants' BMI percentiles and z-scores. Paired t-tests, chi square test and ANCOVA, adjusting for age, gender, and ethnicity were used to assess changes in body weight, BMI, BMI percentiles and BMI z-scores pre to two-weeks post-camp and 12 months post-camp. ^ Results: Significant reductions in body weight of 3.6 ± 1.4 (P = 0.0000), BMI of 1.4 ± 0.54 (P = 0.0000), BMI percentile of 0.45 ± 0.06 (P = 0.0000), and BMI z-score of 0.1 ± 0.06 (P = 0.0000) were observed at the end of the camp. Significant reductions in BMI z-scores (P < 0.001) and BMI percentile (P < 0.001) were observed at the 12-month reunion when compared to pre- and two-weeks post camp data. There was a significant increase in weight and BMI (P = 0.0000) at the 12-month reunion when compared to pre and post camp measurements. ^ Conclusion: Kamp K'aana has consistently shown short-term reductions in weight, BMI, BMI percentile, and BMI z-score. Results from analysis of long-term data suggest that this intervention had beneficial effects on body composition in an ethnically diverse population of obese children. Further research which includes a control group, larger sample size, and cost-analysis should be conducted.^

DNI Measurements in the South of Portugal: Long Term Results through Direct Comparison with Global and Diffuse Radiation Measurements and Existing Time Series

The present work describes the measurement effort for direct normal irradiance (DNI) evaluation in the sunny south of Portugal, with a network of eight radiation measurement stations in several locations (including Évora) providing a good coverage of the region. This new initiative for DNI measurement will still need many years (typically 10 or more) to produce a time series which can claim having long term statistical value. This problem can, however, be temporarily mitigated by measuring DNI at the same time as GHI and DHI, in a place where long term series dating back, already exist for those two. It so happens that a long term series (20 years) of global and diffuse solar irradiation exists for the location Évora. So the expectation is to establish correlations with the goal of attributing at least some long term statistical significance to the short and recent DNI series. The paper describes the setup of the measuring stations and presents the preliminary measurements obtained. It further presents the first correlations of monthly averages between normal beam (DNI), global and diffuse radiation. It then uses these correlations, admittedly without acceptable statistical significance (short series of less than one year of measured data), to exemplify how to get a prediction of long term DNI for Évora. This preliminary obtained value is compared to that predicted by the commercial data from Meteonorm.

Safeguarding rural Australia : addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings. Data report no. 5. Consequences of violence - juvenile offenders, long-term health consequences, anxiety and repression, other chronic disabilities

This report considers extant data which have been sourced with respect to some of the consequences of violent acts and incidents and risky behaviour for males living in regional and remote Australia . This has been collated and presented under the headings: juvenile offenders; long-term health consequences; anxiety and repression; and other chronic disabilities. Additional commentary resulting from exploration, examination and analyses of secondary data is published online in complementary reports in this series.

Methods and preliminary results for a data linkage project to determine long-term survival after intensive care unit admission

Aims: To describe a local data linkage project to match hospital data with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index (NDI) to assess longterm outcomes of intensive care unit patients. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital intensive care and cardiac surgery databases on all patients aged 18 years and over admitted to either of two intensive care units at a tertiary-referral hospital between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 2005. Date of death was obtained from the AIHW NDI by probabilistic software matching, in addition to manual checking through hospital databases and other sources. Survival was calculated from time of ICU admission, with a censoring date of 14 February 2007. Data for patients with multiple hospital admissions requiring intensive care were analysed only from the first admission. Summary and descriptive statistics were used for preliminary data analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyse factors determining long-term survival. Results: During the study period, 21 415 unique patients had 22 552 hospital admissions that included an ICU admission; 19 058 surgical procedures were performed with a total of 20 092 ICU admissions. There were 4936 deaths. Median follow-up was 6.2 years, totalling 134 203 patient years. The casemix was predominantly cardiac surgery (80%), followed by cardiac medical (6%), and other medical (4%). The unadjusted survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 97%, 84% and 70%, respectively. The 1-year survival ranged from 97% for cardiac surgery to 36% for cardiac arrest. An APACHE II score was available for 16 877 patients. In those discharged alive from hospital, the 1, 5 and 10-year survival varied with discharge location. Conclusions: ICU-based linkage projects are feasible to determine long-term outcomes of ICU patients