Evidence of long-term changes in the distribution of key intertidal species

World Congress of Malacology, Ponta Delgada, July 22-28, 2013.

Molecular epidemiology reveals long-term changes in HIV type 1 subtype B transmission in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Sequence data from resistance testing offer unique opportunities to characterize the structure of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection epidemics. METHODS: We analyzed a representative set of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B pol sequences from 5700 patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We pooled these sequences with the same number of sequences from foreign epidemics, inferred a phylogeny, and identified Swiss transmission clusters as clades having a minimal size of 10 and containing >or=80% Swiss sequences. RESULTS: More than one-half of Swiss patients were included within 60 transmission clusters. Most transmission clusters were significantly dominated by specific transmission routes, which were used to identify the following patient groups: men having sex with men (MSM) (38 transmission clusters; average cluster size, 29 patients) or patients acquiring HIV through heterosexual contact (HETs) and injection drug users (IDUs) (12 transmission clusters; average cluster size, 144 patients). Interestingly, there were no transmission clusters dominated by sequences from HETs only. Although 44% of all HETs who were infected between 1983 and 1986 clustered with injection drug users, this percentage decreased to 18% for 2003-2006 (P<.001), indicating a diminishing role of injection drug users in transmission among HETs over time. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests (1) the absence of a self-sustaining epidemic of HIV-1 subtype B in HETs in Switzerland and (2) a temporally decreasing clustering of HIV infections in HETs and IDUs.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Long-term changes in synaptic transmission of the lateral amygdala induced by strong "in vitro" activation

Résumé : L'amygdale latérale (AL) joue un .rôle essentiel dans la plasticité synaptique à la base du conditionnement de la peur. Malgré le faite que la majorité des cellules de l'AL reçoivent les afférentes nécessaires, une potentialisation dans seulement une partie d'entre elles est obligatoire afin que l'apprentissage de la peur ait lieu. Il a été montré que ces cellules expriment la forme active de CREB, et celui-ci a été associé aux cellules dites de type 'nonaccomrnodating' (nAC). Très récemment, une étude a impliqué les circuits récurrents de l'AL dans le conditionnement de la peur. Un lien entre ces deux observations n'a toutefois jamais été établi. t Nous avons utilisé un protocole in vitro de forte activation de l'AL, résultant dans l'induction de 'bursts' provenant de l'hippocampe et se propageant jusqu'à l'AL. Dans l'AL ces 'bursts' atteignent toutes les cellules et se propagent à travers plusieurs chemins. Utilisant ce protocole, nous avons, pour la première fois pu associer dans l'AL, des cellules connectées de manière récurrente avec des cellules de type nAC. Aussi bien dans ces dernières que dans les cellules de type 'accommodating' (AC), une diminution dans la transmission inhibitrice, à la fois exprimée de manière pré synaptique mais également indépendant de la synthèse de protéine a pu être observé. Au contraire, une potentialisation induite et exprimée au niveau pré synaptique ainsi que dépendante de la synthèse de protéine a pu être trouvé uniquement dans les cellules de type nAC. De plus, une hyperexcitabilité, dépendante des récepteurs NMDA a pu être observé, avec une sélection préférentielle des cellules du type nAC dans la génération de bursts. Nous avons également pu démontrer que la transformation d'un certain nombre de cellules de type AC en cellules dites nAC accompagnait cette augmentation générale de l'excitabilité de l'AL. Du faite da la grande quantité d'indices suggérant une connexion entre le système noradrénergique et les états de peur/d'anxiété, les effets d'une forte activation de l'AL sur ce dernier ont été investigués et ont révélés une perte de sa capacité de modulation du 'spiking pattern'. Finalement, des changements au niveau de l'expression d'un certain nombre de gènes, incluant celui codant pour le BDNF, a pu être trouvé à la suite d'une forte activation de l'AL. En raison du lien récemment décrit entre l'expression de la forme active de CREB et des cellules de type nAC ainsi que celui de l'implication des cellules de l'AL connectés de manière récurrente dans l'apprentissage de la peur, nos résultats nous permettent de suggérer un modèle expliquant comment la potentialisation des connections récurrentes entre cellules de type nAC pourrait être à la base de leur recrutement sélectif pendant le conditionnement de la peur. De plus, ils peuvent offrir des indices par rapport aux mécanismes à travers lesquels une sous population de neurones peut être réactivée par une stimulation externe précédemment inefficace, et induire ainsi un signal suffisamment fort pour qu'il soit transmit aux structures efférentes de l'AL. Abstract : The lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA) is critically involved in the plasticity underlying fear-conditioned learning (Sah et al., 2008). Even though the majority of cells in the LA receive the necessary sensory inputs, potentiation in only a subset is required for fear learning to occur (Repa et al., 2001; Rumpel et al., 2005). These cells express active CREB (CAMP-responsive element-binding protein) (Han et al., 200, and this was related to the non-accommodating (nAC) spiking phenotype (Viosca et al., 2009; Zhou et al., 2009). In addition, a very recent study implicated recurrently connected cells of the LA in fear conditioned learning (Johnson et al., 2008). A link between the two observations has however never been made. In rats, we used an in vitro protocol of strong activation of the LA, resulting in bursting activity, which spread from the hippocampus to the LA. Within the LA, this activity reached all cells and spread via a multitude of pathways. Using this model, we were able to link, for the first time, recurrently connected cells in the LA with cells of the nAC phenotype. While we found a presynaptically expressed, protein synthesis independent decrease in inhibitory synaptic transmission in both nAC and accommodating (AC) cells, only nAC cells underwent a presynaptically induced and expressed, protein synthesis dependent potentiation. Moreover we observed an NMDA dependent hyperexcitability of the LA, with a preferential selection of nAC cells into burst generation. The transformation of a subset of AC cells into nAC cells accompanied this general increase in LA excitability. Given the considerable evidence suggesting a relationship between the central noradrenergic (NA) system and fear/anxiety states (Itoi, 2008), the effects of strong activation of the LA on the noradrenergic system were investigated, which revealed a loss of its modulatory actions on cell spiking patterns. Finally, we found changes in the expression levels of a number of genes; among which the one coding for $DNF, to be induced by strong activation of the LA. In view of the recently described link between nAC cells and expression of pCREB (phosphorylated cAMP-responsive element-binding protein) as well as the involvement of recurrently connected cells of the LA in fear-conditioned learning, our findings may provide a model of how potentiation of recurrent connections between nAC neurons underlies their recruitment into the fear memory trace. Additionally, they may offer clues as to the mechanisms through which a selected subset of neurons can be reactivated by smaller, previously ineffective external stimulations to respond with a sufficiently strong signal, which can be transmitted to downstream targets of the LA.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.

Inversion polymorphism in two Serbian natural populations of Drosophila subobscura: Analysis of long-term changes

To study whether inversions (or arrangements) by themselves or karyotypes are the main global warming adaptive target of natural selection, two Drosophila subobscura Serbian populations (Apatin and Petnica) were re analyzed using different statistical approaches. Both populations were sampled in an approximately 15 years period: Apatin in 1994 and 2008 + 2009 and Petnica in 1995 and 2010. For all chromosomes, the four collections studied were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thus, it seems that inversions (or arrangements) combined at random to constitute populations" karyotypes. However, there were differences in karyotypic fre quencies along the years, although they were significant only for Apatin population. It is possible to conclude that inversions (or arrangements) are likely the target of natural selection, because they presented long term changes, but combine at random to generate the corresponding karyotypic combinations. As a consequence, the frequencies of karyotypes also change along time.

Long-term changes in the solar photosphere associated with changes in the coronal source flux

Using sunspot observations from Greenwich and Mount Wilson, we show that the latitudinal spread of sunspot groups has increased since 1874, in a manner that closely mirrors the long-term (similar to 100 year) changes in the coronal source flux, F-s, as inferred from geomagnetic activity. This latitude spread is shown to be well correlated with the flux emergence rate required by the model of the coronal source flux variation by Solanki er al. [2000]. The time constant for the decay of this open flux is found to be 3.6 +/-0.8 years. Using this value, and quantifying the photospheric flux emergence rate using the latitudinal spread of sunspot groups, the model reproduces the observed coronal source flux variation. The ratio of the 100-year drift to the solar cycle amplitude for the flux emergence rate is found to be half of the same ratio for F-s.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.