A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Do β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits in patients with Alzheimer's disease and Down's syndrome grow according to the log-normal model?

The size frequency distributions of diffuse, primitive and classic β- amyloid (Aβ) deposits were studied in single sections of cortical tissue from patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Down's syndrome (DS) and compared with those predicted by the log-normal model. In a sample of brain regions, these size distributions were compared with those obtained by serial reconstruction through the tissue and the data used to adjust the size distributions obtained in single sections. The adjusted size distributions of the diffuse, primitive and classic deposits deviated significantly from a log-normal model in AD and DS, the greatest deviations from the model being observed in AD. More Aβ deposits were observed close to the mean and fewer in the larger size classes than predicted by the model. Hence, the growth of Aβ deposits in AD and DS does not strictly follow the log-normal model, deposits growing to within a more restricted size range than predicted. However, Aβ deposits grow to a larger size in DS compared with AD which may reflect differences in the mechanism of Aβ formation.

Size distribution curves of senile plaques in patients with Alzheimer’s disease: do plaques grow according to the log-normal model?

The size frequency distributions of diffuse, primitive and cored senile plaques (SP) were studied in single sections of the temporal lobe from 10 patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The size distribution curves were unimodal and positively skewed. The size distribution curve of the diffuse plaques was shifted towards larger plaques while those of the neuritic and cored plaques were shifted towards smaller plaques. The neuritic/diffuse plaque ratio was maximal in the 11 – 30 micron size class and the cored/ diffuse plaque ratio in the 21 – 30 micron size class. The size distribution curves of the three types of plaque deviated significantly from a log-normal distribution. Distributions expressed on a logarithmic scale were ‘leptokurtic’, i.e. with excess of observations near the mean. These results suggest that SP in AD grow to within a more restricted size range than predicted from a log-normal model. In addition, there appear to be differences in the patterns of growth of diffuse, primitive and cored plaques. If neuritic and cored plaques develop from earlier diffuse plaques, then smaller diffuse plaques are more likely to be converted to mature plaques.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative analysis of senile plaques in Alzheimer disease: observation of log-normal size distribution and molecular epidemiology of differences associated with apolipoprotein E genotype and trisomy 21 (Down syndrome).

The discovery that the epsilon 4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (apoE) gene is a putative risk factor for Alzheimer disease (AD) in the general population has highlighted the role of genetic influences in this extremely common and disabling illness. It has long been recognized that another genetic abnormality, trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), is associated with early and severe development of AD neuropathological lesions. It remains a challenge, however, to understand how these facts relate to the pathological changes in the brains of AD patients. We used computerized image analysis to examine the size distribution of one of the characteristic neuropathological lesions in AD, deposits of A beta peptide in senile plaques (SPs). Surprisingly, we find that a log-normal distribution fits the SP size distribution quite well, motivating a porous model of SP morphogenesis. We then analyzed SP size distribution curves in genotypically defined subgroups of AD patients. The data demonstrate that both apoE epsilon 4/AD and trisomy 21/AD lead to increased amyloid deposition, but by apparently different mechanisms. The size distribution curve is shifted toward larger plaques in trisomy 21/AD, probably reflecting increased A beta production. In apoE epsilon 4/AD, the size distribution is unchanged but the number of SP is increased compared to apoE epsilon 3, suggesting increased probability of SP initiation. These results demonstrate that subgroups of AD patients defined on the basis of molecular characteristics have quantitatively different neuropathological phenotypes.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades &-1 to &9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition.The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø &8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar).To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend.Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades <-1 to >9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition. The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø <8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar). To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend. Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective-dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K+ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective-dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K+) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl2 concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K+ concentration as the CaCl2 concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 solution were used for all other CaCl2 concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl2 concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l(-1) CaCl2), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.

Gradually truncated log-normal in USA publicly traded firm size distribution

We study the statistical distribution of firm size for USA and Brazilian publicly traded firms through the Zipf plot technique. Sale size is used to measure firm size. The Brazilian firm size distribution is given by a log-normal distribution without any adjustable parameter. However, we also need to consider different parameters of log-normal distribution for the largest firms in the distribution, which are mostly foreign firms. The log-normal distribution has to be gradually truncated after a certain critical value for USA firms. Therefore, the original hypothesis of proportional effect proposed by Gibrat is valid with some modification for very large firms. We also consider the possible mechanisms behind this distribution. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Statnote 35: are the data log-normal?

In many of the Statnotes described in this series, the statistical tests assume the data are a random sample from a normal distribution These Statnotes include most of the familiar statistical tests such as the ‘t’ test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (‘r’). Nevertheless, many variables exhibit a more or less ‘skewed’ distribution. A skewed distribution is asymmetrical and the mean is displaced either to the left (positive skew) or to the right (negative skew). If the mean of the distribution is low, the degree of variation large, and when values can only be positive, a positively skewed distribution is usually the result. Many distributions have potentially a low mean and high variance including that of the abundance of bacterial species on plants, the latent period of an infectious disease, and the sensitivity of certain fungi to fungicides. These positively skewed distributions are often fitted successfully by a variant of the normal distribution called the log-normal distribution. This statnote describes fitting the log-normal distribution with reference to two scenarios: (1) the frequency distribution of bacterial numbers isolated from cloths in a domestic environment and (2), the sizes of lichenised ‘areolae’ growing on the hypothalus of Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC.

Modelling the growth of prion protein aggregates in the brain in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Deposition of insoluble prion protein (PrP) in the brain in the form of protein aggregates or deposits is characteristic of the ‘transmissible spongiform encephalopathies’ (TSEs). Understanding the growth and development of these PrP aggregates is important both in attempting to the elucidate of the pathogenesis of prion disease and in the development of treatments designed to prevent or inhibit the spread of prion pathology within the brain. Aggregation and disaggregation of proteins and the diffusion of substances into the developing aggregates (surface diffusion) are important factors in the development of protein aggregates. Mathematical models suggest that if aggregation/disaggregation or surface diffusion is the predominant factor, the size frequency distribution of the resulting protein aggregates in the brain should be described by either a power-law or a log-normal model respectively. This study tested this hypothesis for two different types of PrP deposit, viz., the diffuse and florid-type PrP deposits in patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The size distributions of the florid and diffuse plaques were fitted by a power-law function in 100% and 42% of brain areas studied respectively. By contrast, the size distributions of both types of plaque deviated significantly from a log-normal model in all brain areas. Hence, protein aggregation and disaggregation may be the predominant factor in the development of the florid plaques. A more complex combination of factors appears to be involved in the pathogenesis of the diffuse plaques. These results may be useful in the design of treatments to inhibit the development of protein aggregates in vCJD.

Size frequency distributions of abnormal protein deposits in Alzheimer’s disease and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

TThe size frequency distributions of ß-amyloid (Aß) and prion protein (PrPsc) deposits were studied in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and the variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) respectively. All size distributions were unimodal and positively skewed. Aß deposits reached a greater maximum size and their distributions were significantly less skewed than the PrPsc deposits. All distributions were approximately log-normal in shape but only the diffuse PrPsc deposits did not deviate significantly from a log-normal model. There were fewer larger classic Aß deposits than predicted and the florid PrPsc deposits occupied a more restricted size range than predicted by a log-normal model. Hence, Aß deposits exhibit greater growth than the corresponding PrPsc deposits. Surface diffusion may be particularly important in determining the growth of the diffuse PrPsc deposits. In addition, there are factors limiting the maximum size of the Aß and florid PrPsc deposits.

Size frequency distribution of prion protein (PrP) aggregates in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD)

The frequency distribution of aggregate size of the diffuse and florid-type prion protein (PrP) plaques was studied in various brain regions in cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The size distributions were unimodal and positively skewed and resembled those of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Down's syndrome (DS). The frequency distributions of the PrP aggregates were log-normal in shape, but there were deviations from the expected number of plaques in specific size classes. More diffuse plaques were observed in the modal size class and fewer in the larger size classes than expected and more florid plaques were present in the larger size classes compared with the log-normal model. It was concluded that the growth of the PrP aggregates in vCJD does not strictly follow a log-normal model, diffuse plaques growing to within a more restricted size range and florid plaques to larger sizes than predicted. © Springer-Verlag 2005.