Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

A new perspective on the PPP hypothesis

This paper the stastistical properties of the real exchange rates of G-5 countries for the Bretton-Woods peiod, and draw implications on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In contrast to most previous studies that consider only unit root and stationary process to describe the real exchange tae, this paper also considers two in-between processes, the locally persistent process ans the fractionally integrated process, to complement past studies. Seeking to be consistent with tha ample evidence of near unit in the real exchange rate movements very well. This finding implies that: 1) the real exchange movement is more persistent than the stationary case but less persistent than the unit root case; 2) the real exchange rate is non-stationary but the PPP reversion occurs and the PPP holds in the long run; 3) the real exchange rate does not exhibit the secular dependence of the fractional integration; 4) the real exchange rate evolves over time in a way that there is persistence over a range of time, but the effect of shocks will eventually disappear over time horizon longer than order O (nd), that is, at finite time horizon; 5) shocks dissipation is fasters than predicted by the fractional integracion, and the total sum of the effects of a unit innovation is finite, implying that a full PPP reversion occurs at finite horizons. These results may explain why pasrt empirical estudies could not provide a clear- conclusion on the real exchange rate processes and the PPP hypothesis.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Persistence of retinal function after intravitreal melphalan injection for retinoblastoma.

BACKGROUND: The risk/benefit profile of intravitreal melphalan injection for treatment of active vitreous seeds in retinoblastoma remains uncertain. We report clinical and electroretinography results after 6 months of one patient who has shown a favorable initial clinical response to intravitreal melphalan injections for treatment of refractory vitreous seeds. METHODS: Clinical case report. PATIENT: The patient presented at age 17 months with bilateral retinoblastoma [OD: International Classification (ICRB) group E, Reese-Ellsworth (R-E) class Vb; OS: ICRB D, R-E Vb] with no known prior family history. The right eye was enucleated primarily. The patient received systemic chemotherapy and extensive local treatment to the left eye. Ten months later, she presented with recurrent disease, including fine, diffuse vitreous seeds. Tumor control was established with intra-arterial chemotherapy and local treatment. Subsequent recurrence was treated with further intra-arterial chemotherapy, local treatment, and plaque radiotherapy with iodine-125. Persistent free-floating spherical vitreous seeds were treated with 4 cycles of intravitreal melphalan injection via the pars plana, with doses of 30, 30, 30, and 20 μg. RESULTS: After 6 months of follow-up, the left eye remained free of active tumor. Visual acuity was 20/40. Photopic ERGs amplitudes were unchanged compared with those recorded prior to the intravitreal injection treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Intravitreal melphalan injection for refractory spherical vitreous seeds of retinoblastoma with favorable tumor response is compatible with good central visual acuity and preservation of retinal function as indicated by photopic ERG recordings.

Trans-scleral local resection of toxic choroidal melanoma after proton beam radiotherapy.

AIM: To report on trans-scleral local resection of choroidal melanoma for exudative retinal detachment and neovascular glaucoma (toxic tumour syndrome) after proton beam radiotherapy (PBR). METHODS: A non-randomised, prospective study of secondary trans-scleral local resection of choroidal melanoma for exudative retinal detachment with or without neovascular glaucoma after PBR. The patients were treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between February 2000 and April 2008. The trans-scleral local resection was performed with a lamellar-scleral flap, using systemic hypotension to reduce haemorrhage. RESULTS: 12 patients (six women, six men) with a mean age of 51 years (range 20-75) were included in this study. The tumour margins extended anterior to ora serrata in six patients. On ultrasonography, the largest basal tumour dimension averaged 12.4 mm (range 6.8-18.1) and the tumour height averaged 7.1 mm (range 4.2-10.7). The retinal detachment was total in seven patients. Neovascular glaucoma was present in four patients. The time between PBR and local resection had a mean of 17.4 months (range 1-84). The ophthalmic follow-up time after the local resection had a mean of 46.2 months (range 14-99). At the latest known status, the eye was conserved in 10 patients, with a flat retina in all these patients and visual acuity equal or better than 6/30 in four patients. The reasons for enucleation were: patient request for enucleation when rhegmatogenous retinal detachment complicated the resection (one patient) and phthisis (one patient). CONCLUSIONS: Exudative retinal detachment, rubeosis and neovascular glaucoma after PBR of a choroidal melanoma can resolve after trans-scleral local resection of the tumour. Our findings suggest that these complications are caused by the persistence of the irradiated tumour within the eye ('toxic tumour syndrome').

Characterising avian haemosporidian communities : ecological factors, parasite persistence and co-infection

Les parasites jouent un rôle clef dans l'évolution des comportements et des traits d'histoire de vie de leurs hôtes. Le parasitisme s'avère parfois dévastateur à l'échelle de population d'hôtes, et peut également altérer certains traits associés à la valeur sélective d'un individu infecté, tels que son succès reproducteur ou encore son taux de mortalité. La coévolution hôte/parasite, qui représente l'une des forces sélectives les plus puissantes dans l'évolution des organismes, peut également conduire les partenaires de l'association parasitaire à s'adapter localement à des environnements hétérogènes. Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de parasites aviaires, du genre Plasmodium, Haemopro- teus et Leucocytozoon (Haemosporidae), naturellement associés à différentes populations de mésanges charbonnières (Parus major) et d'hirondelles des fenêtres (Delichon ur- bicum). Dans un premier temps, nous avons cherché à déterminer comment se distribuent ces parasites au sein de différentes populations hôtes et si ces communautés de parasites sont structurées. Par la suite, la principale question à laquelle nous voulions répondre était de savoir comment ces parasites, et notamment après coexistence de plusieurs lignées génétiques d'Haemosporidae au sein dun même-individu (i.e. co-infection), affectent la physiologie et le succès de reproducteur des hôtes. Nos résultats suggèrent que la distribution des Haemosporidae est principalement gouvernée par la présence d'insectes vecteurs et que la persistance de l'infection chez les hôtes varie en fonction du genre d'Haemosporidae (Chapitre 1-2). Par ailleurs, nous avons trouvé que des lignées de parasite génétiquement distinctes peuvent avoir des effets contrastés sur leurs hôtes. Par exemple, les hôtes exhibent des différences de parasitémie marquées en fonction des lignées de parasites responsable de l'infection. De plus, le succès reproducteur ainsi que la charge parasitaire des mésanges infectées par Plasmodium ou Haemoproteus n'étaient pas affecté par l'infection simultanée avec Leucocytozoon (Chapitre 2-3). Dans le Chapitre 4, j'ai examiné la capacité immunitaire de mésanges charbonnières infectées par des hémosporidies. Les résultats n'ont pas été concluant, et je suggère fortement une réévaluation de ceux-ci dans de futures études. Les mésanges charbonnières ne semblent pas signaler leur statut infectieux par la coloration de leur plumage (Chapitre 5); toutefois, la coloration noire des plumes reflète l'état de stress oxydatif des mésanges, qui dépend lui-même de l'infection parasitaire. La coloration verte pourrait également indiquer la qualité des soins paxentaux délivrés par les mésanges adultes femelles à leurs petits, comme le suggère la corrélation que nous avons observée entre la masse des jeunes d'une nichée et la coloration de leur mère. Les hirondelles capturées en Algérie souffrent plus de l'infection que celles échantillon¬nées en Europe (Chapitre 6). Les similitudes observées entre les communautés de par¬asites affectant les populations européennes et celles des populations nord-africaines suggèrent que la transmission des parasites a lieu lors de la migration vers le sud. A l'instar de nos observations sur les mésanges dans les chapitres 2 et 3, les hirondelles co-infectées ne montrent pas d'altérations de leur condition physique. Cette thèse démontre qu'il existe, au sein des populations de mésanges charbonnières, des interactions antagonistes entre, d'une part, les parasites et leurs hôtes et d'autre part, entre différent parasites. Le résultat de ces interactions antagonistes varie en fonction des espèces et de la zone géographique considérée. Nous avons démontré que les interactions ne suivent pas toujours la théorie, puisque la coevolution qui, en suivant le concept de la virulence, devrait augmenter la charge parasitaire et diminuer la condition physique des hôtes, ne montre pourtant pas d'impact négatif sur les populations de mésanges. Nous pouvons maintenant concentrer nos efforts à la caractérisation des interactions antagonistes. De plus, grâce aux avancées des méthodes moléculaires, nous pouvons suivre et étudier en détails comment ces interactions se manifestent et quels sont leurs effets sur la condition physique des hôtes. - Parasites are key in shaping various behavioural and life-history traits of their hosts. The influence of parasitism on host populations varies from slight to devastating and might influence such parameters as mortality rates or reproductive success. Host-parasite coevolution is one of the most powerful selective forces in evolution and can lead to local adaptation of parasites and hosts in spatially structured environments. In this thesis, I studied haemosporidian parasites in different populations of great tits (Parus major) and house martins (Delichon urbicum). Firstly, I wanted to determine how parasites are distributed and if parasite communities are structured. The main question I wanted to address hereafter was how parasites, and specifically infection with multiple genera of parasites (i.e. co-infection) influenced host physiology and reproductive success. I found that parasite distribution is environmentally driven and could therefore be closely linked to vector prevalence; and that the stability of parasite infection over time is genus-dependent (Chapter 1 - 2). I further found that different haemosporidian lineages might interact differently with their hosts as parasitaemia was strongly lineage-specific and that the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites showed no correlation to Plasmodium or Haemoproteus parasitaemia, nor to great tit reproductive success (Chapter 2-3). In Chapter 4 I examined immune capacity of haemosporidian-infected great tits. The results proved inconclusive, and I strongly suggest re-evaluation hereof in future work. Great tits do not appear to signal parasite infection through plumage colouration (Chapter 5); however, infection did have a link to oxidative stress resistance which is strongly signalled through the black breast stripe, with darker males being more resistant and darker females less resistant. Females might incur different costs associated with darker stripes. This would allow reversal of signaling function. Green colouration could also serve as a cue for female provisioning quality as indicated by the strong correlation between colouration and chick body mass. Breeding house martins caught in Algeria suffer greater haemosporidian infection than European populations (Chapter 6). Similar parasite communities in European and North-African populations suggest transmission of parasites may occur during southward migration. Similarly to what was observed in great tits in Chapter 2 and 3, no relationship was found between parasite co-infection and Swiss house martin body condition. This thesis demonstrates that host-parasite and inter-parasite antagonistic interac¬tions exist in great tit populations. How these interactions play out is species dependent and varies geographically. I have demonstrated that interactions do not always follow the theory, as co-infection - which under the concept of virulence should increase parasitaemia and decrease body condition - showed no negative impact on great tit populations. We can now concentrate our efforts on characterising these antagonistic interactions, and with the advance in molecular methods, track and investigate how these interactions play out and what the effect on host fitness is.

Local adaptation maintains clinal variation in melanin-based coloration of European barn owls (Tyto alba).

Ecological parameters vary in space, and the resulting heterogeneity of selective forces can drive adaptive population divergence. Clinal variation represents a classical model to study the interplay of gene flow and selection in the dynamics of this local adaptation process. Although geographic variation in phenotypic traits in discrete populations could be remainders of past adaptation, maintenance of adaptive clinal variation requires recurrent selection. Clinal variation in genetically determined traits is generally attributed to adaptation of different genotypes to local conditions along an environmental gradient, although it can as well arise from neutral processes. Here, we investigated whether selection accounts for the strong clinal variation observed in a highly heritable pheomelanin-based color trait in the European barn owl by comparing spatial differentiation of color and of neutral genes among populations. Barn owl's coloration varies continuously from white in southwestern Europe to reddish-brown in northeastern Europe. A very low differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggests that substantial gene flow occurs among populations. The persistence of pronounced color differentiation despite this strong gene flow is consistent with the hypothesis that selection is the primary force maintaining color variation among European populations. Therefore, the color cline is most likely the result of local adaptation.

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.

Persisting atypical and cystic forms of Borrelia burgdorferi and local inflammation in Lyme neuroborreliosis

BACKGROUND: The long latent stage seen in syphilis, followed by chronic central nervous system infection and inflammation, can be explained by the persistence of atypical cystic and granular forms of Treponema pallidum. We investigated whether a similar situation may occur in Lyme neuroborreliosis. METHOD: Atypical forms of Borrelia burgdorferi spirochetes were induced exposing cultures of Borrelia burgdorferi (strains B31 and ADB1) to such unfavorable conditions as osmotic and heat shock, and exposure to the binding agents Thioflavin S and Congo red. We also analyzed whether these forms may be induced in vitro, following infection of primary chicken and rat neurons, as well as rat and human astrocytes. We further analyzed whether atypical forms similar to those induced in vitro may also occur in vivo, in brains of three patients with Lyme neuroborreliosis. We used immunohistochemical methods to detect evidence of neuroinflammation in the form of reactive microglia and astrocytes. RESULTS: Under these conditions we observed atypical cystic, rolled and granular forms of these spirochetes. We characterized these abnormal forms by histochemical, immunohistochemical, dark field and atomic force microscopy (AFM) methods. The atypical and cystic forms found in the brains of three patients with neuropathologically confirmed Lyme neuroborreliosis were identical to those induced in vitro. We also observed nuclear fragmentation of the infected astrocytes using the TUNEL method. Abundant HLA-DR positive microglia and GFAP positive reactive astrocytes were present in the cerebral cortex. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that atypical extra- and intracellular pleomorphic and cystic forms of Borrelia burgdorferi and local neuroinflammation occur in the brain in chronic Lyme neuroborreliosis. The persistence of these more resistant spirochete forms, and their intracellular location in neurons and glial cells, may explain the long latent stage and persistence of Borrelia infection. The results also suggest that Borrelia burgdorferi may induce cellular dysfunction and apoptosis. The detection and recognition of atypical, cystic and granular forms in infected tissues is essential for the diagnosis and the treatment as they can occur in the absence of the typical spiral Borrelia form.

Habitat correlates of distribution and local population decline of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus

Habitat-based statistical models relating patterns of presence and absence of species to habitat variables could be useful to resolve conservation-related problems and highlight the causes of population declines. In this paper, we apply such a modelling approach to an endemic amphibian, the Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, considered by IUCN a critically endangered species. Sardinian newts inhabit freshwater habitat in streams, small lakes and pools on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Reported declines of newt populations are not yet supported by quantitative data, however, they are perceived or suspected across the species' historical range. This study represents a first attempt trying to statistically relate habitat characteristics to Sardinian newt occurrence and persistence. Linear regression analysis revealed that newts are more likely to be found in sites with colder water temperature, less riparian vegetation and, marginally, absence of fish. The implications of the results for the conservation of the species are discussed, and suggestions for the short-term management of newt inhabited sites suggested. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.