Local impact of foreign trade; a study in methods of local economic accounting, a Special Project Committee statement and a staff report

Cover title.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

Modelling study of the impact of deep convection on the utls air composition - Part I: Analysis of ozone precursors

The aim of this work is to study the local impact on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere air composition of an extreme deep convective system. For this purpose, we performed a simulation of a convective cluster composed of many individual deep convective cells that occurred near Bauru (Brazil). The simulation is performed using the 3-D mesoscale model RAMS coupled on-line with a chemistry model. The comparisons with meteorological measurements show that the model produces meteorological fields generally consistent with the observations. The present paper (part I) is devoted to the analysis of the ozone precursors (CO, NO x and non-methane volatile organic compounds) and HO x in the UTLS. The simulation results show that the distribution of CO with altitude is closely related to the upward convective motions and consecutive outflow at the top of the convective cells leading to a bulge of CO between 7 km altitude and the tropopause (around 17km altitude). The model results for CO are consistent with satellite-borne measurements at 700 hPa. The simulation also indicates enhanced amounts of NO x up to 2 ppbv in the 7-17 km altitude layer mainly produced by the lightning associated with the intense convective activity. For insoluble non-methane volatile organic compounds, the convective activity tends to significantly increase their amount in the 7-17km layer by dynamical effects. During daytime in the presence of lightning NO x, this bulge is largely reduced in the upper part of the layer for reactive species (e.g. isoprene, ethene) because of their reactions with OH that is increased on average during daytime. Lightning NO x also impacts on the oxydizing capacity of the upper troposphere by reducing on average HO x, HO 2, H 2O 2 and organic hydroperoxides. During the simulation time, the impact of convection on the air composition of the lower stratosphere is negligible for all ozone precursors although several of the simulated convective cells nearly reach the tropopause. There is no significant transport from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere, the isentropic barrier not being crossed by convection. The impact of the increase of ozone precursors and HO x in the upper troposphere on the ozone budget in the LS is discussed in part II of this series of papers.

Emissions of CH3Br, organochlorines, and organoiodines from temperate macroalgae

The production rates of a range of low molecular weight halogenated organics have been determined in cultures of five temperate species of macroalgae collected from the north coast of Norfolk, England. Compounds studied included CH3Br, the chlorinated organics CH3Cl, CH2Cl2 and CHCl3, and the iodinated organics CH3I, C2H5I, and CH2ClI. Measurements of a wider range of halocarbon concentrations in an isolated rockpool and in air over the seaweed bed were also conducted to evaluate the local impact of the seaweeds on halocarbon concentrations in the natural environment. Estimates for the global emissions of some of the key halogenated compounds from macroalgae have been derived. In general macrophytes appear not to be globally significant producers of the particular halocarbons studied. In coastal regions, however, the impact on local atmospheric composition and chemistry could be greater.

Isotopic composition of tropospheric and soil N2O from successive depths of agricultural plots with contrasting crops and nitrogen amendments

Agricultural soils are the dominant contributor to increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O). Few studies have investigated the natural N and O isotopic composition of soil N2O. We collected soil gas samples using horizontal sampling tubes installed at successive depths under five contrasting agricultural crops (e.g., unamended alfalfa, fertilized cereal), and tropospheric air samples. Mean d 15N and d 18O values of soil N2O ranged from -28.0 to +8.9‰, and from +29.0 to +53.6‰. The mean d 15N and d 18O values of tropospheric N2O were +4.6 ± 0.7‰ and +48.3 ± 0.2‰, respectively. In general, d values were lowest at depth, they were negatively correlated to soil [N2O], and d 15N was positively correlated to d 18O for every treatment on all sampling dates. N2O from the different agricultural treatments had distinct d 15N and d 18O values that varied among sampling dates. Fertilized treatments had soil N2O with low d values, but the unamended alfalfa yielded N2O with the lowest d values. Diffusion was not the predominant process controlling N2O concentration profiles. Based on isotopic and concentration data, it appears that soil N2O was consumed, as it moved from deeper to shallower soil layers. To better assess the main process(es) controlling N2O within a soil profile, we propose a conceptual model that integrates data on net N2O production or consumption and isotopic data. The direct local impact of agricultural N2O on the isotopic composition of tropospheric N2O was recorded by a shift toward lower d values of locally measured tropospheric N2O on a day with very high soil N2O emissions.

The political economy of international regulatory convergence in public utilities

To what extent should public utilities regulation be expected to converge across countries? When it occurs, will it generate good outcomes? Building on the core proposition of the New Institutional Economics that similar regulations generate different outcomes depending on their fit with the underlying domestic institutions, we develop a simple model and explore its implications by examining the diffusion of local loop unbundling (LLU) regulations. We argue that: one should expect some convergence in public utility regulation but with still a significant degree of local experimentation; this process will have very different impacts of regulation.

Potential of built environment interventions involving deployment of public bicycles to increase utilitarian cycling : the case of BIXI in Montreal, Quebec

Contexte : Les interventions sur l'environnement bâti reliées au transport peuvent contribuer à l'augmentation de la pratique de l'activité physique. En tant qu’intervention, les programmes de vélos en libre-service (PVLS) peuvent contribuer à l’utilisation du vélo. BIXI© (nom qui fusionne les mots BIcyclette et taXI) est un programme de vélos en libre-service implanté à Montréal, au Canada, en mai 2009. Le programme BIXI© met à la disposition des gens 5050 vélos à 405 bornes d’ancrage. Objectif : L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'étudier l'impact d'un programme de vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Les objectifs spécifiques de la thèse sont de : 1) Estimer la prévalence populationnelle et identifier des variables environnementales, sociodémographiques et comportementales associées à l’utilisation des vélos en libre-service. 2) Estimer l’impact populationnel de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo et les contributions respectives de l’utilisation du vélo pour des fins utilitaires et récréatives à l’utilisation totale du vélo. 3) Estimer l’impact local de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Méthodes : Un devis populationnel transversal avec mesures répétées. Des enquêtes ont été réalisées au moment du lancement du programme de vélos en libre-service (4 mai au 10 juin, 2009), à la fin de la première année d’implantation (8 octobre au 12 décembre, 2009), et à la fin de la deuxième année d’implantation (8 novembre au 12 décembre, 2010). Les échantillons se composaient de 2001 (âge moyen = 49,4 années, 56,7 % de femmes), 2502 (âge moyen = 47,8 ans, 61,8 % de femmes) et 2509 (âge moyen = 48,9 années, 59,0 % de femmes) adultes à chaque période de mesure respectivement. Résultats : Globalement, les résultats démontrent le potentiel des PVLS pour augmenter l’utilisation du vélo. Les résultats suggèrent que près de 128 744 habitants ou 8,1 % de la population adulte ont utilisé les vélos BIXI© au moins une fois dans la première saison. Après deux ans d’implantation, ceux qui sont exposés à BIXI© dans leur milieu résidentiel avaient une probabilité significativement plus élevée d’utiliser le vélo par rapport à ceux non exposés. Par contre, il n'y avait aucun impact local de l’implantation du programme BIXI© sur l’utilisation du vélo. Conclusions : L’implantation d'un PVLS à Montréal a augmenté la probabilité d’utiliser le vélo chez les individus habitant près d'une borne d'ancrage. Mots clés : programme de vélos en libre-service, expérience naturelle, santé des populations.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

De la fidelidad a la revolución: el proceso de la independencia de la antigua provincia de Guayaquil, 1809-1820 (Estudios)

Este articulo analiza las transformaciones políticas e ideológicas que tuvieron lugar en Guayaquil entre 1809 y 1820, período en el que la ciudad transitó de un marcado fidelismo hacia la autonomía e independencia. Se estudian las disputas entre los grupos de poder local y las reacciones del cabildo a las sucesivas coyunturas peninsulares y regionales. El ensayo muestra la relación entre las tensiones sociales internas y la dinámica, hasta ahora desconocida, de las diferentes elecciones ocurridas entre 1809 y 1813, as¡ como el impacto local de la vigencia y posterior supresión de la constitución gatidatana. El estudio concluye con una reconsideración de la independencia guayaquileña de 1820.

A policy critique of Stansted Airport's expansion to 25 million passengers per annum (MPPA)

In this paper we undertake a preliminary assessment of the regional planning and development implications of BAA Stansted Airport’s planning permission to grow to 25 million passengers per annum (mppa) by 2010. Our concern is not simply to consider the overall growth of the airport on the airport site itself but the nature and type of growth both on- and off-site. In this document we focus on the submitted planning permission documents and test them. The methodology we employed was to draw on published and unpublished numerical estimates of the airport’s growth – particularly including estimates produced by the airport owner, BAA, and their economic and planning consultants DTZ Pieda - and critically, and systematically analyse their figures. We adopted this approach because unless the figures which were employed in the initial calculations were correct then all of the subsequent projections which flow from them - and the polices which could then be based on them – could be flawed. The analysis is divided into two parts – firstly, are the growth forecasts correct?; and secondly, what do these forecasts actually mean in developmental terms? In effect, what we have done is to produce a critique of the existing body of evidence by questioning underpinning assumptions and then draw some preliminary conclusions for the region based on this analysis. A major focus of this report has been analyse the figures involved in the planning application to expand Stansted to 25mppa. Ironically, one of our key findings, that the local impact of Stansted’s proposed expansion in employment terms might well be less than was originally thought, might make it easier to gain the acceptance of the relevant local authorities involved to allow the development to take place. Our main overall findings are that the BAA projections over-estimate the local employment impact of the airport’s proposed growth and under-estimate its potential regional ‘transportation’ employment effect. These two findings are, of course, related to each other in important ways, and we also feel that they have potentially significant medium and long-term economic, competitiveness and planning policy implications for the East of England region

Assimilation of RAPID array observations into an ocean model

Experiments assimilating the RAPID dataset of deep temperature and salinity profiles at 26.5°N on the western and eastern Atlantic boundaries into a 1° global NEMO ocean model have been performed. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is then assessed against the transports calculated directly from observations. The best initialization found for this short period was obtained by assimilating the EN3 upper-ocean hydrography database prior to 2004, after which different methods of assimilating 5-day average RAPID profiles at the western boundary were tested. The model MOC is strengthened by ∼ 2 Sv giving closer agreement with the RAPID array transports, when the western boundary profiles are assimilated only below 900 m (the approximate depth of the Florida Straits, which are not well resolved) and when the T,S observations are spread meridionally from 10 to 35°N along the deep western boundary. The use of boundary-focused covariances has the largest impact on the assimilation results, otherwise using more conventional Gaussian covariances has a very local impact on the MOC at 26°N with strong adverse impacts on the MOC stream function at higher and lower latitudes. Even using boundary-focused covariances only enables the MOC to be strengthened for ∼ 2 years, after which the increased transport of warm waters leads to a negative feedback on water formation in the subpolar gyre which then reduces the MOC. This negative feedback can be mitigated if EN3 hydrography data continue to be assimilated along with the RAPID array boundary data. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.

Futures for teachers? Unravelling global agencies development agendas in education and training and lifelong learning

This 20-page paper was presented in June 2001 at an invitational conference hosted by the Education Policy Research Group at Keele University. The theme of the conference was “travelling policy/local spaces: globalisation, identities and education policy in Europe“. Linked from the events page at http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ed/events/conf papers.htm, this document is one of 22 papers from the conference that are presented in full text. The paper is organised in three sections, firstly examining the local impact of the application of a global development agenda on educational practices in Victoria, Australia, then analysing policy texts issued by the OECD, Unesco, and the Word Bank, and finally interpreting the data in the light of interagency politics and the authors‘ reading of the global-local dynamics of the educational restructuring in Victoria.

Efeito da alteração do hábitat sobre assembleias de peixes em igarapés afogados da Amazônia oriental

Os ecossistemas aquáticos de água doce constituem sistemas complexos que estão sendo expostos a uma variedade de perturbações. Na região Amazônica, o uso dos recursos e ocupação da terra tem alterado a estrutura física do hábitat desses ambientes, especialmente os de pequeno porte (conhecidos como igarapés), influenciando a estrutura e composição de suas comunidades. Vários estudos e programas de avaliação têm sido desenvolvidos a fim de verificar como essas alterações afetam as comunidades bióticas, através de características do hábitat que se mostram mais sensíveis às perturbações. Nesse contexto, o objetivo desse estudo foi mensurar e descrever atributos do hábitat de igarapés afogados e verificar como as assembleias de peixes respondem aos diferentes níveis de integridade física apresentados por esses igarapés. Para isso, testamos a hipótese de que ambientes estruturalmente mais íntegros suportam uma ictiofauna mais diversa do que ambientes impactados, em virtude destes apresentarem uma diminuição na complexidade ambiental. O estudo foi realizado em 34 igarapés, sendo 17 situados dentro do território da Floresta Nacional de Caxiuanã, e 17 em seu entorno, localizados próximos aos centros urbanos dos municípios de Portel e Melgaço (PA). O processo de urbanização encontra-se em expansão na região, alcançando áreas de florestas e corpos hídricos que ainda permanecem preservados. Também há uma intensa atividade extrativista madeireira, pois a área está inserida no principal pólo madeireiro da zona do estuário no estado do Pará. O hábitat físico dos igarapés foi avaliado seguindo um protocolo padronizado de avaliação. Para a coleta dos peixes foram utilizadas redes de mão em um trecho de 150 metros por igarapé durante seis horas (divididas entre os segmentos e entre os coletores). Apesar de detectarmos um conjunto de métricas que responderam ao gradiente de alteração local, estas não se mostraram suficientes na redução ou aumento do número de espécies ao longo dos níveis de preservação, mantendo praticamente constante a riqueza e abundância para os três grupos (alterado, intermediário e íntegro). Porém, a diferença foi significativa para a composição, com onze espécies exclusivas de ambientes alterados e oito exclusivas de ambientes íntegros. A degradação do ambiente físico, mesmo que em escalas menores favorece a ocorrência e maior abundância de espécies tolerantes e com grande plasticidade fenotípica, além do aumento populacional de espécies oportunistas. Diferentes efeitos podem ser exercidos sobre os grupos de espécies que compõem uma comunidade, pois elas apresentam diferentes atributos biológicos e ecológicos que incluem também suas respostas para as mesmas variáveis ecológicas. Portanto, a possível desconstrução da comunidade em grupos de espécies (sejam taxonômicos, funcionais, etc) pode mostrar respostas diferenciadas frente às alterações do hábitat, sendo uma estratégia promissora para associar características ambientais aos padrões de riqueza apresentado por essas comunidades. A avaliação da integridade biótica também é uma alternativa para identificar efeitos da alteração do hábitat sobre as espécies, principalmente considerando a peculiaridade da região e a falta de informações acerca da ictiofauna local.

Hydrogeological investigations in the upper Ouémé catchment in Benin, West Africa

The scope of this PhD thesis was the hydrogeological conceptualisation of the Upper Ouémé river catchment in Benin. The study area exceeds 14,500 km**2 and is underlain by a crystalline basement. At this setting the typical sequence of aquifers - a regolith aquifer at the top and a fractured bedrock aquifer at the bottom - is encountered, which is found in basement areas all over Africa and elsewhere in the world. The chosen regional approach revealed important information about the hydrochemistry and hydrogeology of this catchment. Based on the regional conceptual model a numerical groundwater flow model was designed. The numerical model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional groundwater resources. This study was realised within the framework of the German interdisciplinary research project IMPETUS (English translation: "Integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa"), which is jointly managed by the German universities of Bonn and Cologne. Since the year 2000 the Upper Ouémé catchment was the principal target for investigations into the relevant processes of the regional water cycle. A first study from 2000 to 2003 (Fass, 2004, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-03849) focused on the hydrogeology of a small local catchment (~30 km**2). In the course of this thesis five field campaigns were underdone from the year 2004 to 2006. In the beginning of 2004 a groundwater monitoring net was installed based on 12 automatic data loggers. Manual piezometric measurements and the sampling of groundwater and surface water were realised for each campaign throughout the whole study area. Water samples were analysed for major ions, for a choice of heavy metals and for their composition by deuterium, oxygen-18 and tritium. The numerical model was performed with FEFLOW. The hydraulic and hydrochemical characteristics were described for the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer. The regolith aquifer plays the role of the groundwater stock with low conductivity while the fractures of the bedrock may conduct water relatively fast towards extraction points. Flow in fractures of the bedrock depends on the connectivity of the fracture network which might be of local to subregional importance. Stable isotopes in combination with hydrochemistry proved that recharge occurs on catchment scale and exclusively by precipitation. Influx of groundwater from distant areas along dominant structures like the Kandi fault or from the Atacora mountain chain is excluded. The analysis of tritium in groundwater from different depths revealed the interesting fact of the strongly rising groundwater ages. Bedrock groundwater may possibly be much older than 50 years. Equilibrium phases of the silicate weathering products kaolinite and montmorillonite showed that the deeper part of the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer feature either stagnant or less mobile groundwater while the shallow aquifer level is influenced by seasonal groundwater table fluctuations. The hydrochemical data characterised this zone by the progressive change of the hydrochemical facies of recently infiltrated rainwater on its flow path into deeper parts of the aquifers. Surprisingly it was found out that seasonal influences on groundwater hydrochemistry are minor, mainly because they affect only the groundwater levels close to the surface. The transfer of the hydrogeological features of the Upper Ouémé catchment into a regional numerical model demanded a strong simplification. Groundwater tables are a reprint of the general surface morphology. Pumping or other types of groundwater extraction would have only very local impact on the available groundwater resources. It was possible to integrate IMPETUS scenario data into the groundwater model. As a result it was shown that the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources until the year 2025 under the given conditions will be negligible due to the little share of precipitation needed for recharge and the low water needs for domestic use. Reason for concern is the groundwater quality on water points in the vicinity of settlements because of contamination by human activities as shown for the village of Dogué. Nitrate concentrations achieved in many places already alerting levels. Health risks from fluoride or heavy metals were excluded for the Upper Ouémé area.