Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

ACcESS: Australia's contribution to the iSERVO Institute's development

The new Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator research facility provides a virtual laboratory for studying the solid earth and its complex system behavior. The facility's capabilities complement those developed by overseas groups, thereby creating the infrastructure for an international computational solid earth research virtual observatory.

Implementation of particle-scale rotation in the 3-d Lattice Solid Model

In this study, 3-D Lattice Solid Model (LSMearth or LSM) was extended by introducing particle-scale rotation. In the new model, for each 3-D particle, we introduce six degrees of freedom: Three for translational motion, and three for orientation. Six kinds of relative motions are permitted between two neighboring particles, and six interactions are transferred, i.e., radial, two shearing forces, twisting and two bending torques. By using quaternion algebra, relative rotation between two particles is decomposed into two sequence-independent rotations such that all interactions due to the relative motions between interactive rigid bodies can be uniquely decided. After incorporating this mechanism and introducing bond breaking under torsion and bending into the LSM, several tests on 2-D and 3-D rock failure under uni-axial compression are carried out. Compared with the simulations without the single particle rotational mechanism, the new simulation results match more closely experimental results of rock fracture and hence, are encouraging. Since more parameters are introduced, an approach for choosing the new parameters is presented.

Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

The production of 4-adminobutyrate in response to treatments reducing cytosolic pH and the regulation of intracellular pH

GABA (4-aminobutyrate) is synthesized through the decarboxylation of LGlu- (L-Glu-+ H+ ---> GABA + C02), and compared to many free amino acids is present in high concentrations in plant cells. GABA levels rise rapidly and dramatically in response to varied stress conditions including anaerobiosis. Recent papers suggest that GABA production and associated H+ consumption are parts of a metabolic pH-stat mechanism which ameliorates the intracellular pH decline associated with anaerobiosis or other treatments. To test this hypothesis GABA production and efflux have been measured in isolated Asparagus sprengeri cells in response to three treatments which potentially cause intracellular acidification. Acid loads were imposed using 60 min of (i) anaerobiosis, (ii) H+/LGlu- cotransport, and (iii) treatment with permeant weak acids (butyric, acetic and propionic). Both intra- and extracellular GABA concentrations increased more than 100% after anaerobiosis, almost 1000% after H+/L-Glu- cotransport (light or dark) and almost 5000/0 after addition of 5 mM butyric acid at pH 5.0. HPLC analysis of amino acids indicates that as GABA concentrations increased in response to butyric acid addition, glutamate concentrations decreased. Time-course studies demonstrated that added butyric acid stimulates GABA production by 2800/0 within 15 seconds. A fluorescent determination of cytosolic pH indicates that addition of butyric or other weak acids resulted in a rapid reduction in cytosolic pH of 0.6 pH units. The half time for the response to butyric acid addition is 2.1 seconds, indicating that the decline in cytosolic pH is rapid enough to account for the rapid stimulation of GABA production. The acid load in response to butyric acid addition was assayed by measurements of 14C-butyric acid uptake. Calculations indicate that GABA production accounted for 45% of the imposed acid load. The biological significance of GABA efflux is not yet understood. The results support the original hypothesis suggesting a role for GABA production in cellular pH regulation.

Estudio metrológico de un sensor de impacto no destructivo para la determinación de firmeza de frutas en líneas de confección.

A non destructive impact sensor to measure fruit firmness has been installed on the sizer chain of an experimental fruit packing line. The sensor measures the fruit firmness related to the acceleration-time curve supplied by an accelerometer attached to an impacting arm. The sensor works correctly at a speed of 5 to 7 fruits per second. Ratio A/t (maximum acceleration value divided by its corresponding time), mean, and maximum slopes of the curves supplied by the accelerometer, were well correlated with the firmness data obtained in laboratory with the load-unload test. The accelerometer signal allows the classification of the fruit in three levels of firmness, by means of a specific software.

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

Estudo da influência da fragmentação no custo da produção de agregados graníticos

Hoje em dia algumas das principais preocupações que se tem na exploração a céu aberto, são a diminuição de custos e a máxima rentabilidade dos equipamentos. São dois aspectos que estão interligados uma vez que a rentabilização dos equipamentos tem como resultado directo a diminuição dos custos de todas as operações inerentes à exploração a céu aberto e, consequentemente, a diminuição dos custos finais de produção. É por essa lógica de pensamento que se procurou perceber e compreender o funcionamento e a rentabilidade dos equipamentos em função dos diferentes estados de fracturação do maciço rochoso. Este estudo foi realizado numa pedreira a norte de Portugal e complementa outros estudos já realizados, com o objectivo de definir características do diagrama de fogo que assegurem a maior rentabilidade da referida exploração. O estudo baseia-se em determinar os rendimentos da pá carregadora calculando os tempos de ciclo, isto é, o tempo que a pá demorou a carregar, a movimentar e a descarregar o material desmontado dos vários rebentamentos. Calculou-se o rendimento do martelo demolidor na fragmentação de grandes blocos, que não entrariam directamente no britador primário, o qual também foi alvo de estudo, nomeadamente, no que diz respeito aos tempos de encravamento e de britagem, onde se tentou correlacionar esses tempos com os vários desmontes e estimou-se o consumo de energia do britador primário utilizando a equação de Bond. Por fim, realizou-se um estudo comparativo do consumo energético entre as várias fases da exploração a céu aberto. Foram realizados levantamentos geológico-geotécnicos de superfícies de descontinuidades recorrendo à técnica de amostragem linear nas superfícies do maciço rochoso para perceber o tipo de fragmentação e orientação do mesmo.