Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Dynamic load management in a smart home to participate in demand response events

In future power systems, in the smart grid and microgrids operation paradigms, consumers can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and autonomous decisions in the energy management. It is expected that each consumer will manage not only the loads, but also small generation units, heating systems, storage systems, and electric vehicles. Each consumer can participate in different demand response events promoted by system operators or aggregation entities. This paper proposes an innovative method to manage the appliances on a house during a demand response event. The main contribution of this work is to include time constraints in resources management, and the context evaluation in order to ensure the required comfort levels. The dynamic resources management methodology allows a better resources’ management in a demand response event, mainly the ones of long duration, by changing the priorities of loads during the event. A case study with two scenarios is presented considering a demand response with 30 min duration, and another with 240 min (4 h). In both simulations, the demand response event proposes the power consumption reduction during the event. A total of 18 loads are used, including real and virtual ones, controlled by the presented house management system.

An automatic tool to Extract, Transform and Load data from real electricity markets

The study of Electricity Markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring produced. Currently, lots of information concerning Electricity Markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge, to define realistic scenarios, essential for understanding and forecast Electricity Markets behaviour. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of Electricity Markets and the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper we present an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites, assuring actualization and reliability of stored data.

The Effect of Load Follow Operation on Fuel Behaviour in Loviisa NPP

Työn tarkoituksena oli analysoida polttoainesauvojen käyttäytymistä Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen tehonsäätöajossa. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen Pohjoismaissa sekä tämän seurauksena vaihteleva sähkön markkinahinta ovat ajaneet sähkötuottajat tilanteeseen, jossa tuotanto aiempaa enemmän mukautuu markkinatilanteeseen. Näin ollen myös Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen osallistuminen sähkön tuotannon säätelyyn saattaa tulevaisuudessa olla ajankohtaista. Ennen kuin reaktorin tehonsäätöajoa voidaan alkaa toteuttaa, tulee varmistua siitä, että polttoainesauvassa tehonsäätöjen seurauksena tapahtuvat muutokset eivät aiheuta epäsuotuisia käyttäytymisilmiöitä. Työssä tarkastellaan kahden Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen polttoainetoimittajan, British Nuclear Fuels plc:n ja venäläisen TVEL:n ensinippujen polttoainesauvan käyttäytymistä tehonsäätötapauksissa. Työssä tarkastellut tehonsäätötapaukset on pyritty valitsemaan niin, että ne kuvaisivat tulevaisuudessa mahdollisesti toteutettavia tehonsäätöjä. Laskentatapauksien sauvatehohistoriat on generoitu HEXBU-3D sydänsimulaattoriohjelmalla lasketun nelivuotisen perustehohistorian pohjalta lisäämällä säätösauvan aiheuttama reaktoritehon muutos, säätösauvan viereisen polttoainenipun aksiaalitehon muutos sekä säätösauvan rakenteen aiheuttama paikallinen tehopiikki säätösauvan vieressä. Työssä tarkastellaan tehonsäätöjen toteuttamista eri tehotasoille ja vaihtelevilla määrillä tehonsäätösyklejä. Työssä käsitellyt laskentatapaukset on jaoteltu reaktorin ajotavan mukaan seuraavasti: peruskuorma-ajo, viikonloppusäätö ja päiväsäätö. Laskenta suoritettiin ydinpolttoaineen käyttäytymistä kuvaavaa ENIGMA-B 7.3.0 ohjelmaa apuna käyttäen. Laskelmien tulokset osoittavat, että molempien polttoainetoimittajien ensinippujen sauvat kestävät reaktorin tehonsäätöajoa rajoituksetta tarkastelluissa laskentatapauksissa. ENIGMA-ohjelman sisältämät mallit, jotka ennustavat polttoainesauvan suojakuoren vaurioitumistodennäköisyyden jännityskorroosion tai väsymismurtuman kautta, eivät näytä mitään merkkejä vaurioitumisesta. BNFL:n polttoainesauva saavuttaa kuitenkin suurempia väsymismurtumatodennäköisyyden arvoja. Tämä johtuu siitä, että polttoainepelletin ja suojakuoren välinen mekaaninen vuorovaikutus syntyy BNFL:n sauvassa aikaisemmin, joka taas johtaa suurempaan määrään sauvaa rasittavia muodonmuutoksia tehonnostotilanteissa. TVEL:n Zr1%Nb -materiaalista valmistetun suojakuoren käyttäytymistä ei voida kuitenkaan suoraan näiden laskujen perusteella arvioida, sillä ENIGMA-ohjelman mallit perustuvat Zircaloy-suojakuorimateriaaleilla suoritettuihin kokeisiin.

Effect of cyclic load on vertical misfit of prefabricated and cast implant single abutment

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate misfit alterations at the implant/abutment interface of external and internal connection implant systems when subjected to cyclic loading. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Standard metal crowns were fabricated for 5 groups (n=10) of implant/abutment assemblies: Group 1, external hexagon implant and UCLA cast-on premachined abutment; Group 2, internal hexagon implant and premachined abutment; Group 3, internal octagon implant and prefabricated abutment; Group 4, external hexagon implant and UCLA cast-on premachined abutment; and Group 5, external hexagon implant and Ceraone abutment. For groups 1, 2, 3 and 5, the crowns were cemented on the abutments and in group 4 crowns were screwed directly on the implant. The specimens were subjected to 500,000 cycles at 19.1 Hz of frequency and non-axial load of 133 N in a MTS 810 machine. The vertical misfit (μm) at the implant/abutment interface was evaluated before (B) and after (A) application of the cyclic loading. Data were analyzed statistically by using two-away ANOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test (p<0.05). RESULTS: Before loading values showed no difference among groups 2 (4.33±3.13), 3 (4.79±3.43) and 5 (3.86±4.60); between groups 1 (12.88±6.43) and 4 (9.67±3.08), and among groups 2, 3 and 4. However, groups 1 and 4 were significantly different from groups 2, 3 and 5. After loading values of groups 1 (17.28±8.77) and 4 (17.78±10.99) were significantly different from those of groups 2 (4.83±4.50), 3 (8.07±4.31) and 5 (3.81±4.84). There was a significant increase in misfit values of groups 1, 3 and 4 after cyclic loading, but not for groups 2 and 5. CONCLUSIONS: The cyclic loading and type of implant/abutment connection may develop a role on the vertical misfit at the implant/abutment interface.

Load Ratio Estimation Through Striation Height and Spacing Analysis of an Aerospace Al Alloy 7475-T7351

It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

The frequency of CD127(low) expressing CD4(+)CD25(high) T regulatory cells is inversely correlated with human T lymphotrophic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) proviral load in HTLV-1-infection and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

Background: CD4(+)CD25(high) regulatory T (T(Reg)) cells modulate antigen-specific T cell responses, and can suppress anti-viral immunity. In HTLV-1 infection, a selective decrease in the function of T(Reg) cell mediated HTLV-1-tax inhibition of FOXP3 expression has been described. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and phenotype of T(Reg) cells in HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers and in HTLV-1-associated neurological disease (HAM/TSP) patients, and to correlate with measures of T cell activation. Results: We were able to confirm that HTLV-1 drives activation, spontaneous IFN gamma production, and proliferation of CD4+ T cells. We also observed a significantly lower proportion of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells (CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells) in subjects with HAM/TSP patients compared to healthy controls. Ki-67 expression was negatively correlated to the frequency of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells in HAM/TSP only, although Ki-67 expression was inversely correlated with the percentage of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells in healthy control subjects. Finally, the proportion of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells correlated inversely with HTLV-1 proviral load. Conclusion: Taken together, the results suggest that T(Reg) cells may be subverted in HAM/TSP patients, which could explain the marked cellular activation, spontaneous cytokine production, and proliferation of CD4(+) T cells, in particular those expressing the CD25(high)CD127(low) phenotype. T(Reg) cells represent a potential target for therapeutic intervention for patients with HTLV-1-related neurological diseases.

Real-Time PCR in HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi Coinfection with and without Chagas Disease Reactivation: Association with HIV Viral Load and CD4(+) Level

Background: Reactivation of chronic Chagas disease, which occurs in approximately 20% of patients coinfected with HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi), is commonly characterized by severe meningoencephalitis and myocarditis. The use of quantitative molecular tests to monitor Chagas disease reactivation was analyzed. Methodology: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of kDNA sequences, competitive (C-) PCR and real-time quantitative (q) PCR were compared with blood cultures and xenodiagnosis in samples from 91 patients (57 patients with chronic Chagas disease and 34 with HIV/T. cruzi coinfection), of whom 5 had reactivation of Chagas disease and 29 did not. Principal Findings: qRT-PCR showed significant differences between groups; the highest parasitemia was observed in patients infected with HIV/T. cruzi with Chagas disease reactivation (median 1428.90 T. cruzi/mL), followed by patients with HIV/T. cruzi infection without reactivation (median 1.57 T. cruzi/mL) and patients with Chagas disease without HIV (median 0.00 T. cruzi/mL). Spearman's correlation coefficient showed that xenodiagnosis was correlated with blood culture, C-PCR and qRT-PCR. A stronger Spearman correlation index was found between C-PCR and qRT-PCR, the number of parasites and the HIV viral load, expressed as the number of CD4(+) cells or the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio. Conclusions: qRT-PCR distinguished the groups of HIV/T. cruzi coinfected patients with and without reactivation. Therefore, this new method of qRT-PCR is proposed as a tool for prospective studies to analyze the importance of parasitemia (persistent and/or increased) as a criterion for recommending pre-emptive therapy in patients with chronic Chagas disease with HIV infection or immunosuppression. As seen in this study, an increase in HIV viral load and decreases in the number of CD4(+) cells/mm(3) and the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio were identified as cofactors for increased parasitemia that can be used to target the introduction of early, pre-emptive therapy.

High levels of T lymphocyte activation in Leishmania-HIV-1 co-infected individuals despite low HIV viral load

Background: Concomitant infections may influence HIV progression by causing chronic activation leading to decline in T-cell function. In the Americas, visceral (AVL) and tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) have emerged as important opportunistic infections in HIV-AIDS patients and both of those diseases have been implicated as potentially important co-factors in disease progression. We investigated whether leishmaniasis increases lymphocyte activation in HIV-1 co-infected patients. This might contribute to impaired cellular immune function. Methods: To address this issue we analyzed CD4(+) T absolute counts and the proportion of CD8(+) T cells expressing CD38 in Leishmania/HIV co-infected patients that recovered after anti-leishmanial therapy. Results: We found that, despite clinical remission of leishmaniasis, AVL co-infected patients presented a more severe immunossupression as suggested by CD4(+) T cell counts under 200 cells/mm(3), differing from ATL/HIV-AIDS cases that tends to show higher lymphocytes levels (over 350 cells/mm(3)). Furthermore, five out of nine, AVL/HIV-AIDS presented low CD4(+) T cell counts in spite of low or undetectable viral load. Expression of CD38 on CD8(+) T lymphocytes was significantly higher in AVL or ATL/HIV-AIDS cases compared to HIV/AIDS patients without leishmaniasis or healthy subjects. Conclusions: Leishmania infection can increase the degree of immune system activation in individuals concomitantly infected with HIV. In addition, AVL/HIV-AIDS patients can present low CD4(+) T cell counts and higher proportion of activated T lymphocytes even when HIV viral load is suppressed under HAART. This fact can cause a misinterpretation of these laboratorial markers in co-infected patients.

Detection of Human Bocavirus mRNA in Respiratory Secretions Correlates with High Viral Load and Concurrent Diarrhea

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a parvovirus recently identified in association with acute respiratory infections (ARI). Despite its worldwide occurrence, little is known on the pathogenesis of HBoV infections. In addition, few systematic studies of HBoV in ARI have been conducted in Latin America. Therefore, in order to test whether active viral replication of human bocavirus is associated with respiratory diseases and to understand the clinical impact of this virus in patients with these diseases, we performed a 3-year retrospective hospital-based study of HBoV in outpatients and inpatients with symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in Brazil. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) from 1015 patients with respiratory symptoms were tested for HBoV DNA by PCR. All samples positive for HBoV were tested by PCR for all other respiratory viruses, had HBoV viral loads determined by quantitative real time PCR and, when possible, were tested by RT-PCR for HBoV VP1 mRNA, as evidence of active viral replication. HBoV was detected in 4.8% of patients, with annual rates of 10.0%, 3.0% and 3.0% in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The range of respiratory symptoms was similar between HBoV-positive and HBoV-negative ARI patients. However, a higher rate of diarrhea was observed in HBoV-positive patients. High HBoV viral loads (> 10(8) copies/mL) and diarrhea were significantly more frequent in patients with exclusive infection by HBoV and in patients with detection of HBoV VP1 mRNA than in patients with viral co-infection, detected in 72.9% of patients with HBoV. In summary, our data demonstrated that active HBoV replication was detected in a small percentage of patients with ARI and was correlated with concurrent diarrhea and lack of other viral co-infections.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Intra and interannual variability in the Madeira River water chemistry and sediment load

Concentrations of cations (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), NH(4) (+)), anions (HCO(3) (-), Cl(-), NO(3) (-), SO(4) (2-), PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO), in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found, with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season, as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed, but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition, bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate, and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies, it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years, although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere, reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters, and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes, such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River.

Methods of quantification of training load in exercise performed at maximal lactate steady state

The aim of the present study was to compare and correlate training impulse (TRIMP) estimates proposed by Banister (TRIMP(Banister)), Stagno (TRIMP(Stagno)) and Manzi (TRIMP(Manzi)). The subjects were submitted to an incremental test on cycle ergometer with heart rate and blood lactate concentration measurements. In the second occasion, they performed 30 min. of exercise at the intensity corresponding to maximal lactate steady state, and TRIMP(Banister), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) were calculated. The mean values of TRIMP(Banister) (56.5 +/- 8.2 u.a.) and TRIMP(Stagno) (51.2 +/- 12.4 u.a.) were not different (P > 0.05) and were highly correlated (r = 0.90). Besides this, they presented a good agreement level, which means low bias and relatively narrow limits of agreement. On the other hand, despite highly correlated (r = 0.93), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) (73.4 +/- 17.6 u.a.) were different (P < 0.05), with low agreement level. The TRIMP(Banister) e TRIMP(Manzi) estimates were not different (P = 0.06) and were highly correlated (r = 0.82), but showed low agreement level. Thus, we concluded that the investigated TRIMP methods are not equivalent. In practical terms, it seems prudent monitor the training process assuming only one of the estimates.