905 resultados para Likelihood Profiles


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Phylogeographic analyses of the fauna of the Australian wet tropics rainforest have provided strong evidence for long-term isolation of populations among allopatric refugia, yet typically there is no corresponding divergence in morphology. This system provides an opportunity to examine the consequences of geographic isolation, independent of morphological divergence, and thus to assess the broader significance of historical subdivisions revealed through mitochondrial DNA phylogeography. We have located and characterized a zone of secondary contact between two long isolated (mtDNA divergence > 15%) lineages of the skink Carlia rubrigularis using one mitochondrial and eight nuclear (two intron, six microsatellite) markers. This revealed a remarkably narrow (width < 3 km) hybrid zone with substantial linkage disequilibrium and strong deficits of heterozygotes at two of three nuclear loci with diagnostic alleles. Cline centers were coincident across loci. Using a novel form of likelihood analysis, we were unable to distinguish between sigmoidal and stepped cline shapes except at one nuclear locus for which the latter was inferred. Given estimated dispersal rates of 90-133 m x gen(-1/2) and assuming equilibrium, the observed cline widths suggest effective selection against heterozygotes of at least 22-49% and possibly as high as 70%. These observations reveal substantial postmating isolation, although the absence of consistent deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium at diagnostic loci suggests that there is little accompanying premating isolation. The tight geographic correspondence between transitions in mtDNA and those for nuclear genes and corresponding evidence for selection against hybrids indicates that these morphologically cryptic phylogroups could be considered as incipient species. Nonetheless, we caution against the use of mtDNA phylogeography as a sole criterion for defining species boundaries.

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Heterogeneous datasets arise naturally in most applications due to the use of a variety of sensors and measuring platforms. Such datasets can be heterogeneous in terms of the error characteristics and sensor models. Treating such data is most naturally accomplished using a Bayesian or model-based geostatistical approach; however, such methods generally scale rather badly with the size of dataset, and require computationally expensive Monte Carlo based inference. Recently within the machine learning and spatial statistics communities many papers have explored the potential of reduced rank representations of the covariance matrix, often referred to as projected or fixed rank approaches. In such methods the covariance function of the posterior process is represented by a reduced rank approximation which is chosen such that there is minimal information loss. In this paper a sequential Bayesian framework for inference in such projected processes is presented. The observations are considered one at a time which avoids the need for high dimensional integrals typically required in a Bayesian approach. A C++ library, gptk, which is part of the INTAMAP web service, is introduced which implements projected, sequential estimation and adds several novel features. In particular the library includes the ability to use a generic observation operator, or sensor model, to permit data fusion. It is also possible to cope with a range of observation error characteristics, including non-Gaussian observation errors. Inference for the covariance parameters is explored, including the impact of the projected process approximation on likelihood profiles. We illustrate the projected sequential method in application to synthetic and real datasets. Limitations and extensions are discussed. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

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In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

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Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

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One of the main objectives of the Spanish and Portuguese-Speaking Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) is to promote and contribute to the development and dissemination of scientific knowledge in the area of forensic genetics. Due to this fact, GHEP-ISFG holds different working commissions that are set up to develop activities in scientific aspects of general interest. One of them, the Mixture Commission of GHEP-ISFG, has organized annually, since 2009, a collaborative exercise on analysis and interpretation of autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) mixture profiles. Until now, three exercises have been organized (GHEP-MIX01, GHEP-MIX02 and GHEP-MIX03), with 32, 24 and 17 participant laboratories respectively. The exercise aims to give a general vision by addressing, through the proposal of mock cases, aspects related to the edition of mixture profiles and the statistical treatment. The main conclusions obtained from these exercises may be summarized as follows. Firstly, the data show an increased tendency of the laboratories toward validation of DNA mixture profiles analysis following international recommendations (ISO/IEC 17025: 2005). Secondly, the majority of discrepancies are mainly encountered in stutters positions (53.4%, 96.0% and 74.9%, respectively for the three editions). On the other hand, the results submitted reveal the importance of performing duplicate analysis by using different kits in order to reduce errors as much as possible. Regarding the statistical aspect (GHEP-MIX02 and 03), all participants employed the likelihood ratio (LR) parameter to evaluate the statistical compatibility and the formulas employed were quite similar. When the hypotheses to evaluate the LR value were locked by the coordinators (GHEP-MIX02) the results revealed a minor number of discrepancies that were mainly due to clerical reasons. However, the GHEP-MIX03 exercise allowed the participants to freely come up with their own hypotheses to calculate the LR value. In this situation the laboratories reported several options to explain the mock cases proposed and therefore significant differences between the final LR values were obtained. Complete information concerning the background of the criminal case is a critical aspect in order to select the adequate hypotheses to calculate the LR value. Although this should be a task for the judicial court to decide, it is important for the expert to account for the different possibilities and scenarios, and also offer this expertise to the judge. In addition, continuing education in the analysis and interpretation of mixture DNA profiles may also be a priority for the vast majority of forensic laboratories. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (Order Glomales, Class Zygomycetes) are a diverse group of soil fungi that form mutualistic associations with the roots of most species of higher plants. Despite intensive study over the past 25 years, the phylogenetic relationships among AM fungi, and thus many details of evolution of the symbiosis, remain unclear. Cladistic analysis was performed on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles of 15 species in Gigaspora and Scutellospora (family Gigasporaceae) by using a restricted maximum likelihood approach of continuous character data. Results were compared to a parsimony analysis of spore morphological characters of the same species. Only one tree was generated from each character set. Morphological and developmental data suggest that species with the simplest spore types are ancestral whereas those with complicated inner wall structures are derived. Spores of those species having a complex wall structure pass through stages of development identical to the mature stages of simpler spores, suggesting a pattern of classical Haeckelian recapitulation in evolution of spore characters. Analysis of FAME profiles supported this hypothesis when Glomus leptotichum was used as the outgroup. However, when Glomus etunicatum was chosen as the outgroup, the polarity of the entire tree was reversed. Our results suggest that FAME profiles contain useful information and provide independent criteria for generating phylogenetic hypotheses in AM fungi. The maximum likelihood approach to analyzing FAME profiles also may prove useful for many other groups of organisms in which profiles are empirically shown to be stable and heritable.

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Morbidities and deaths from noncommunicable chronic diseases are greatly increased in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, but little is known of the underlying community-based health profiles. We describe chronic-disease profiles and their risk factors in 3 remote communities in the Northern Territory. Consenting adults (18+ years of age) in 3 communities participated in a brief history and examination between 2000 and mid-2003 as part of a systematic program to improve chronic-disease awareness and management. Participation was 67%,128%, and 62% in communities A, B, and C, respectively with a total of 1070 people examined. Current smokers included 41% of females and 72% of males. Most men were current drinkers, but most women were not. Parameters of body weight differed markedly by community, with mean body mass index (BMC) varying from 21.4 to 27.9 kg/m(2). Rates of chronic diseases were excessive but differed markedly; an almost threefold difference in the likelihood of any morbidity existed between communities A and C. Rates increased with age, but the greatest numbers of people with morbidities were in the middle-aged group. Most people had multiple morbidities with tremendous overlap. Hypertension and kidney disease appear to be early manifestations of the integrated chronic-disease syndrome, while diabetes is a late manifestation or complication. Substantial numbers of new cases of disease were identified by testing, and blood pressure improved in treated people with hypertension. Wide variations occur in body habitus, risk factors, and chronic-disease rates among communities, but an overwhelming need for effective smoking interventions exists in all. Systematic screening is useful in identifying high-risk individuals, most at early treatable stages there. Findings are very important for estimating current treatment needs, future burdens of disease, and for needs-based health services planning. Resources required will vary according to the burden of disease. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

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Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

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The new social panorama resulting from aging of the Brazilian population is leading to significant transformations within healthcare. Through the cluster analysis strategy, it was sought to describe the specific care demands of the elderly population, using frailty components. Cross-sectional study based on reviewing medical records, conducted in the geriatric outpatient clinic, Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Ninety-eight elderly users of this clinic were evaluated using cluster analysis and instruments for assessing their overall geriatric status and frailty characteristics. The variables that most strongly influenced the formation of clusters were age, functional capacities, cognitive capacity, presence of comorbidities and number of medications used. Three main groups of elderly people could be identified: one with good cognitive and functional performance but with high prevalence of comorbidities (mean age 77.9 years, cognitive impairment in 28.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities); a second with more advanced age, greater cognitive impairment and greater dependence (mean age 88.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 84.6% and mean of 7.1 comorbidities); and a third younger group with poor cognitive performance and greater number of comorbidities but functionally independent (mean age 78.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 89.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities). These data characterize the profile of this population and can be used as the basis for developing efficient strategies aimed at diminishing functional dependence, poor self-rated health and impaired quality of life.

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Didanosine-loaded chitosan microspheres were developed applying a surface-response methodology and using a modified Maximum Likelihood Classification. The operational conditions were optimized with the aim of maintaining the active form of didanosine (ddI), which is sensitive to acid pH, and to develop a modified and mucoadhesive formulation. The loading of the drug within the chitosan microspheres was carried out by ionotropic gelation technique with sodium tripolyphosphate (TPP) as cross-linking agent and magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2) to assure the stability of ddI. The optimization conditions were set using a surface-response methodology and applying the Maximum Likelihood Classification, where the initial chitosan concentration, TPP and ddI concentration were set as the independent variables. The maximum ddI-loaded in microspheres (i.e. 1433mg of ddI/g chitosan), was obtained with 2% (w/v) chitosan and 10% TPP. The microspheres depicted an average diameter of 11.42μm and ddI was gradually released during 2h in simulated enteric fluid.

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ABSTRACT Microphysical and thermodynamical features of two tropical systems, namely Hurricane Ivan and Typhoon Conson, and one sub-tropical, Catarina, have been analyzed based on space-born radar PR measurements available on the TRMM satellite. The procedure to classify the reflectivity profiles followed the Heymsfield et al (2000) and Steiner et al (1995) methodologies. The water and ice content have been calculated using a relationship obtained with data of the surface SPOL radar and PR in Rondonia State in Brazil. The diabatic heating rate due to latent heat release has been estimated using the methodology developed by Tao et al (1990). A more detailed analysis has been performed for Hurricane Catarina, the first of its kind in South Atlantic. High water content mean value has been found in Conson and Ivan at low levels and close to their centers. Results indicate that hurricane Catarina was shallower than the other two systems, with less water and the water was concentrated closer to its center. The mean ice content in Catarina was about 0.05 g kg-1 while in Conson it was 0.06 g kg-1 and in Ivan 0.08 g kg-1. Conson and Ivan had water content up to 0.3 g kg-1 above the 0ºC layer, while Catarina had less than 0.15 g kg-1. The latent heat released by Catarina showed to be very similar to the other two systems, except in the regions closer to the center.

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Background: MicroRNA (miR) are a class of small RNAs that regulate gene expression by inhibiting translation of protein encoding transcripts. To evaluate the role of miR in skeletal muscle of swine, global microRNA abundance was measured at specific developmental stages including proliferating satellite cells, three stages of fetal growth, day-old neonate, and the adult. Results: Twelve potential novel miR were detected that did not match previously reported sequences. In addition, a number of miR previously reported to be expressed in mammalian muscle were detected, having a variety of abundance patterns through muscle development. Muscle-specific miR-206 was nearly absent in proliferating satellite cells in culture, but was the highest abundant miR at other time points evaluated. In addition, miR-1 was moderately abundant throughout developmental stages with highest abundance in the adult. In contrast, miR-133 was moderately abundant in adult muscle and either not detectable or lowly abundant throughout fetal and neonate development. Changes in abundance of ubiquitously expressed miR were also observed. MiR-432 abundance was highest at the earliest stage of fetal development tested (60 day-old fetus) and decreased throughout development to the adult. Conversely, miR-24 and miR-27 exhibited greatest abundance in proliferating satellite cells and the adult, while abundance of miR-368, miR-376, and miR-423-5p was greatest in the neonate. Conclusion: These data present a complete set of transcriptome profiles to evaluate miR abundance at specific stages of skeletal muscle growth in swine. Identification of these miR provides an initial group of miR that may play a vital role in muscle development and growth.

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Ionizing radiation OR) imposes risks to human health and the environment. IR at low doses and low (lose rates has the potency to initiate carcinogenesis. Genotoxic environmental agents such as IR trigger a cascade of signal transduction pathways for cellular protection. In this study, using cDNA microarray technique, we monitored the gene expression profiles in lymphocytes derived from radiation-ex posed individuals (radiation workers). Physical dosimetry records on these patients indicated that the absorbed dose ranged from 0.696 to 39.088 mSv. Gene expression analysis revealed statistically significant transcriptional changes in a total of 78 genes (21 up-regulated and 57 clown-regulated) involved in several biological processes such as ubiquitin cycle (UHRF2 and PIAS1), DNA repair (LIG3, XPA, ERCC5, RAD52, DCLRE1C), cell cycle regulation/proliferation (RHOA, CABLES2, TGFB2, IL16), and stress response (GSTP1, PPP2R5A, DUSP22). Some of the genes that showed altered expression profiles in this study call be used as biomarkers for monitoring the chronic low level exposure in humans. Additionally, alterations in gene expression patterns observed in chronically exposed radiation workers reinforces the need for defining the effective radiation dose that causes immediate genetic damage as well as the long-term effects on genomic instability, including cancer.

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Background: Melanoma progression occurs through three major stages: radial growth phase (RGP), confined to the epidermis; vertical growth phase (VGP), when the tumor has invaded into the dermis; and metastasis. In this work, we used suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) to investigate the molecular signature of melanoma progression, by comparing a group of metastatic cell lines with an RGP-like cell line showing characteristics of early neoplastic lesions including expression of the metastasis suppressor KISS1, lack of alpha v beta 3-integrin and low levels of RHOC. Methods: Two subtracted cDNA collections were obtained, one (RGP library) by subtracting the RGP cell line (WM1552C) cDNA from a cDNA pool from four metastatic cell lines (WM9, WM852, 1205Lu and WM1617), and the other (Met library) by the reverse subtraction. Clones were sequenced and annotated, and expression validation was done by Northern blot and RT-PCR. Gene Ontology annotation and searches in large-scale melanoma expression studies were done for the genes identified. Results: We identified 367 clones from the RGP library and 386 from the Met library, of which 351 and 368, respectively, match human mRNA sequences, representing 288 and 217 annotated genes. We confirmed the differential expression of all genes selected for validation. In the Met library, we found an enrichment of genes in the growth factors/receptor, adhesion and motility categories whereas in the RGP library, enriched categories were nucleotide biosynthesis, DNA packing/repair, and macromolecular/vesicular trafficking. Interestingly, 19% of the genes from the RGP library map to chromosome 1 against 4% of the ones from Met library. Conclusion: This study identifies two populations of genes differentially expressed between melanoma cell lines from two tumor stages and suggests that these sets of genes represent profiles of less aggressive versus metastatic melanomas. A search for expression profiles of melanoma in available expression study databases allowed us to point to a great potential of involvement in tumor progression for several of the genes identified here. A few sequences obtained here may also contribute to extend annotated mRNAs or to the identification of novel transcripts.

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Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare the in vitro effects of the Er:YAG laser, an ultrasonic system, and manual curette on dentine root surface by roughness and micro-morphological analysis. Materials and Methods: Thirty-six flattened bovine roots were randomly assigned to one of the following groups: group 1 (n = 12): Er: YAG laser ( 2940 nm), 120 mJ/pulse, 10 Hz, 8.4 J/cm(2); group 2 ( n = 12): ultrasonic system; and group 3 ( n = 12): manual curette. The mean surface roughness (Ra) of each sample was measured using a profilometer before and after the treatments. The micro-morphology of the treated and untreated ( control) root surfaces was evaluated with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at 50 x and 1000 x magnification. Results: Analysis with the profilometer showed that for equal times of instrumentation, the smoothest surfaces were produced by the Er: YAG laser and the ultrasonic system, followed by the curette ( p < 0.05). Morphological analyses demonstrated that treatment with the Er: YAG laser produced some areas with an irregular surface, craters, and ablation of the intertubular dentin. The smear layer was removed and dentine tubules were opened by both curettes and the ultrasonic system. The micro-morphology of the dentine root surface after ultrasonic treatment, however, demonstrated randomly distributed areas cratering. Conclusion: All instruments increased the roughness of the dentine root surface after treatment; however, the curette produced rougher surfaces than the other devices. SEM analysis revealed distinct root surface profiles produced by the three devices.