Elección de la duración del viaje vacacional: una aproximación con modelos de recuento

La duración del viaje vacacional es una decisión del turista con unas implicaciones fundamentales para las organizaciones turísticas, pero que ha recibido una escasa atención por la literatura. Además, los escasos estudios se han centrado en los destinos costeros, cuando el turismo de interior se está erigiendo como una alternativa importante en algunos países. El presente trabajo analiza los factores determinantes de la elección temporal del viaje turístico, distinguiendo el tipo de destino elegido -costa e interior-, y proponiendo varias hipótesis acerca de la influencia de las características de los individuos relacionadas con el destino, de las restricciones personales y de las características sociodemográficas. La metodología aplicada estima, como novedad en este tipo de decisiones, un Modelo Binomial Negativo Truncado que evita los sesgos de estimación de los modelos de regresión y el supuesto restrictivo de igualdad media-varianza del Modelo de Poisson. La aplicación empírica realizada en España sobre una muestra de 1.600 individuos permite concluir, por un lado, que el Modelo Binomial Negativo es más adecuado que el de Poisson para realizar este tipo de análisis. Por otro lado, las dimensiones determinantes de la duración del viaje vacacional son, para ambos destinos, el alojamiento en hotel y apartamento propio, las restricciones temporales, la edad del turista y la forma de organizar el viaje; mientras que el tamaño de la ciudad de residencia y el atributo “precios baratos” es un aspecto diferencial de la costa; y el alojamiento en apartamentos alquilados lo es de los destinos de interior.

Given and News : Media discourse and the construction of community on national days

National anniversaries such as independence days demand precise coordination in order to make citizens change their routines to forego work and spend the day at rest or at festivities that provide social focus and spectacle. The complex social construction of national days is taken for granted and operates as a given in the news media, which are the main agents responsible for coordinating these planned disruptions of normal routines. This study examines the language used in the news to construct the rather unnatural idea of national days and to align people in observing them. The data for the study consist of news stories about the Fourth of July in the New York Times, sampled over 150 years and are supplemented by material from other sources and other countries. The study is multidimensional, applying concepts from pragmatics (speech acts, politeness, information structure), systemic functional linguistics (the interpersonal metafunction and the Appraisal framework) and cognitive linguistics (frames, metaphor) as well as journalism and communications to arrive at an interdisciplinary understanding of how resources for meaning are used by writers and readers of the news stories. The analysis shows that on national anniversaries, nations tend to be metaphorized as persons having birthdays, to whom politeness should be shown. The face of the nation is to be respected in the sense of identifying the nation's interests as one's own (positive face) and speaking of citizen responsibilities rather than rights (negative face). Resources are available for both positive and negative evaluations of events and participants and the newspaper deftly changes footings (Goffman 1981) to demonstrate the required politeness while also heteroglossically allowing for a certain amount of disattention and even protest - within limits, for state holidays are almost never construed as Bakhtinian festivals, as they tend to reaffirm the hierarchy rather than invert it. Celebrations are evaluated mainly for impressiveness, and for the essentially contested quality of appropriateness, which covers norms of predictability, size, audience response, aesthetics, and explicit reference to the past. Events may also be negatively evaluated as dull ("banal") or inauthentic ("hoopla"). Audiences are evaluated chiefly in terms of their enthusiasm, or production of appropriate displays for emotional response, for national days are supposed to be occasions of flooding-out of nationalistic feeling. By making these evaluations, the newspaper reinforces its powerful position as an independent critic, while at the same time playing an active role in the construction and reproduction of emotional order embodied in "the nation's birthday." As an occasion for mobilization and demonstrations of power, national days may be seen to stand to war in the relation of play to fighting (Bateson 1955). Evidence from the newspaper's coverage of recent conflicts is adduced to support this analysis. In the course of the investigation, methods are developed for analyzing large collections of newspaper content, particularly topical soft news and feature materials that have hitherto been considered less influential and worthy of study than so-called hard news. In his work on evaluation in newspaper stories, White (1998) proposed that the classic hard news story is focused on an event that threatens the social order, but news of holidays and celebrations in general does not fit this pattern, in fact its central event is a reproduction of the social order. Thus in the system of news values (Galtung and Ruge 1965), national holiday news draws on "ground" news values such as continuity and predictability rather than "figure" news values such as negativity and surprise. It is argued that this ground helps form a necessary space for hard news to be seen as important, similar to the way in which the information structure of language is seen to rely on the regular alternation of given and new information (Chafe 1994).

Association between particulate matter from biomass burning and respiratory diseases in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon

Objective. To investigate the short-term effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon on the daily demand for outpatient care due to respiratory diseases in children and the elderly. Methods. Epidemiologic study with ecologic time series design. Daily consultation records were obtained from the 14 primary health care clinics in the municipality of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon, between January 2004 and December 2005. Information on the daily levels of fine particulate matter was made available by the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research. To control for confounding factors ( situations in which a non-causal association between exposure and disease is observed due to a third variable), variables related to time trends, seasonality, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and calendar effects ( such as occurrence of holidays and weekends) were included in the model. Poisson regression with generalized additive models was used. Results. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the level of exposure to particulate matter was associated with increases of 2.9% and 2.6% in outpatient consultations due to respiratory diseases in children on the 6th and 7th days following exposure. Significant associations were not observed for elderly individuals. Conclusions. The results suggest that the levels of particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon are associated with adverse effects on the respiratory health of children.

Evaluation of different immunization protocols with P. brasiliensis antigens in Guinea pigs

O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver protocolo eficiente e reprodutível de imunização em cobaias com antígenos de P. brasiliensis, visando a obtenção de modelo experimental para futuros estudos de mecanismos de proteção imunológica. Testaram-se três diferentes antígenos (particulado, solúvel e composto) e seis protocolos nos quais foram avaliadas as influências dos seguintes fatores: presença ou ausência de adjuvante completo de Freund, número de doses imunizantes e intervalo de tempo entre a última dose imunizante e o desafio. A eficiência do protocolo de imunização foi estudada pela avaliação da resposta imune celular e humoral anti-P. brasiliensis, utilizando teste cutâneo e teste de inibição da migração do macrófago, e imunodifusão, respectivamente. Observou-se que: 1. Três doses imunizantes de antígeno induziram melhor resposta do que duas doses; 2. Maior resposta imune foi conseguida com a utilização de adjuvante completo de Freund; 3. Animais desafiados depois de longo tempo (6 semanas) da última dose imunizante mostraram melhor resposta imune anti-P. brasiliensis; 4. Os antígenos solúvel e composto foram igualmente eficientes induzindo maior resposta imune humoral e celular anti-P. brasiliensis enquanto que o antígeno particulado provocou menor reatividade

Ontogenic development of Guazuma ulmifolia (Sterculiaceae) sapplings

Guazuma ulmifolia is as popular reforestation tree all over Latin America. It is characteristic of the initial stages of the secondary sucession and presents potential utility in the restoring of degraded areas. There is no information about fruit,seed and seedling morphology, which is of fundamental importance for identification, extraction, management and seed germination as well as for the characterization of post-seminal development and normal seedling pattern. To obtain such information, external fruit, and external and internal seed structures were studied considering shape, size, micropile and embryo localization; and tegumentar structures. All stages of this work were conduced in the Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Campus of Jaboticabal city. The fruits were collected in a mixed plantation in Jaboticabal city, State of São Paulo, Brazil. For the bio metric study eight repetitions of ten fruits and eight repetitions of 100 seeds were utilized. For seed internal traits study, 50 seeds were drenched in a distiled water, cut, and observed with a scanning electron microscope and a stereomicroscope, For post-seminal study ten repetitions of seven seeds were scarificated chemically with sulphuric acid during 50 min, and placed to germinate ina culture medium, at 30 degrees C, and eight hours of photoperiod. We found elipsoid, woody, indehiscent, pentacarpelar fruits, with a mean lenght of 22.61 mm (diameter 24.88 mm) and 64.0 seeds per fruit. Seed shape varies, mean length is 3.07 mm (width of 2.36 mm). The seed is bitegumented, tegmic, with a continuous, axial and curved embryo. The germination is epigeal and the seedlings are fanerocotiledoneus. Drawings of all stages are included.

The Atlantic intra-coastal waterway. The project advocated by the Atlantic Deeper Waterways Association. Official survey lines and present status of the work in its various sections.

Compiled by Wilfred H. Schoff.

Distribution, density and abundance of Antarctic ice seals off Queen Maud Land and the eastern Weddell Sea

The Antarctic Pack Ice Seal (APIS) Program was initiated in 1994 to estimate the abundance of four species of Antarctic phocids: the crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga, Weddell seal Leptonychotes weddellii, Ross seal Ommatophoca rossii and leopard seal Hydrurga leptonyx and to identify ecological relationships and habitat use patterns. The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (the eastern sector of the Weddell Sea) was surveyed by research teams from Germany, Norway and South Africa using a range of aerial methods over five austral summers between 1996-1997 and 2000-2001. We used these observations to model densities of seals in the area, taking into account haul-out probabilities, survey-specific sighting probabilities and covariates derived from satellite-based ice concentrations and bathymetry. These models predicted the total abundance over the area bounded by the surveys (30°W and 10°E). In this sector of the coast, we estimated seal abundances of: 514 (95 % CI 337-886) x 10**3 crabeater seals, 60.0 (43.2-94.4) x 10**3 Weddell seals and 13.2 (5.50-39.7) x 10**3 leopard seals. The crabeater seal densities, approximately 14,000 seals per degree longitude, are similar to estimates obtained by surveys in the Pacific and Indian sectors by other APIS researchers. Very few Ross seals were observed (24 total), leading to a conservative estimate of 830 (119-2894) individuals over the study area. These results provide an important baseline against which to compare future changes in seal distribution and abundance.

Considerations associated with the testing of external pipeline coatings

Reliable testing methodologies for the assessment of protective coatings are critical for ensuring the integrity and durability of pipeline coatings (such as field joint coatings) and the mitigation of pipeline corrosion. Currently the failure of joint coatings is one of the major concerns in corrosion protection of pipelines, although they represent only approximately 5% of the coated area in a pipeline system. This paper presents an overview of major testing methodologies currently used in the pipeline industry for the selection, testing, and life prediction of coatings, in particular field joint coatings. Particular focus is on the discussion of difficulties and limitations in testing methods for assessing pipeline coating cracking, cathodic disbondment and loss of adhesion. It is shown that there are limitations in current methodologies in evaluating the coating flexibility - a key parameter for avoiding coatings cracking during hydrostatic testing, cyclic pressure operation and field bending. Methodologies for assessing the effect of holidays in coatings on the cathodic disbondment of pipeline coating under excessively negative cathodic protection (CP) voltages also require improvement. Furthermore, methods for understanding the effects of coating wet adhesion on pipeline coating, cracking and disbondment also need attention. Some preliminary results for addressing some of these issues are also presented in this paper.

Social tourism: a potential policy to reduce social exclusion?

Social tourism is often presented by charities and governmental organisations as a potential means to counter social exclusion. It has more specifically been linked to potential benefits such as improvements in family relations, a more pro-active attitude to life, an improvement in the academic performance of children etc. Even though this argument is often used when promoting social tourism, there is very little research evidence that supports these claims. This research concentrates on visitor-related social tourism for low-income groups, and the effects a social holiday can have on the daily lives of the families who are offered these holidays. The paper reports on qualitative two-stage research that has been conducted with participants of social holidays in the UK and their welfare agents. It will present findings as to how far holidays can assist with the integration of socially excluded, and this on different levels: family relations, parenting, pro-social attitudes, mental and physical health and community involvement are examples of categories used to measure change. Different types of holidays will also be compared to analyse the merits and limitations of each type (individual family holidays versus group holidays).

Potencialidades e utilização do espaço recreio: um estudo desenvolvido em escolas do 1.º ciclo do ensino básico

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Educação - Área de Especialização em Didática das Ciências

Morbimortalidad asociada a transfusiones de glóbulos rojos en una unidad de cuidados intensivos pediátricos de Bogotá

Determinar si las transfusiones de glóbulos rojos en niños en cuidados intensivos se asocian a aumento de la morbimortalidad. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio observacional analítico de cohorte. Se incluyeron niños con anemia de 1 mes a 18 años de edad en un periodo de 10 meses. Resultados: 134 niños con anemia fueron incluidos. En el 51.5% la anemia se desarrolló posterior a su ingreso. De éstos, 66 niños recibieron una transfusión de glóbulos rojos y la mediana de hemoglobina pretransfusión fue de 7.5 g/dl. El 6% de los pacientes transfundidos presentó una Reacción adversa. Entre el grupo de pacientes expuesto a transfusión y los no expuestos existió diferencia significativa en la hemoglobina de ingreso, cantidad de sangre extraída y edad en el análisis bivariado. Los pacientes transfundidos tuvieron mayor mortalidad (15.2% vs. 2.9%, p =0.013). El desarrollo de falla multiorgánica también fue más frecuente en el grupo transfundido (62.1% vs. 16.2%, p < 0.001). La mediana de los días de estancia en la UCI y el tiempo de ventilación mecánica fue mayor en los niños transfundidos que en los no transfundidos, 8 vs. 4 días p< 0.001, y 6 vs. 3 días p<0.001 respectivamente. Un análisis multivariado mostró asociación de transfusión de glóbulos rojos con mortalidad y falla multiorgánica. Conclusión: Las transfusiones de glóbulos rojos se asocian con un aumento en la Mortalidad y en el desarrollo de falla multiorgánica. La estancia en la UCI y el tiempo de ventilación mecánica fue mayor en los niños transfundidos.

Morbimortalidad asociada a transfusiones de glóbulos rojos. Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos, Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio

Objetivos: Determinar si las transfusiones de glóbulos rojos en niños en cuidados intensivos se asocian a aumento de la morbimortalidad. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio observacional analítico de cohorte. Se incluyeron niños con anemia de 1 mes a 18 años de edad en un periodo de 13 meses. Resultados: 156 niños con anemia fueron incluidos. En el 51.5% la anemia se desarrolló posterior a su ingreso. De éstos, 77 niños recibieron una transfusión de glóbulos rojos y la mediana de hemoglobina pretransfusión fue de 7.5 g/dl. El 6.5% de los pacientes transfundidos presentó una Reacción adversa. Entre el grupo de pacientes expuesto a transfusión y los no expuestos existió diferencia significativa en la hemoglobina de ingreso, cantidad de sangre extraída y edad en el análisis bivariado. Los pacientes transfundidos tuvieron mayor mortalidad (12.9% vs. 2.5%, p =0.014). El desarrollo de falla multiorgánica también fue más frecuente en el grupo transfundido (57.1% vs. 13.9%, p < 0.001). La mediana de los días de estancia en la UCI y el tiempo de ventilación mecánica fue mayor en los niños transfundidos que en los no transfundidos, 8 vs. 4 días p< 0.001, y 6 vs. 3 días p<0.001 respectivamente. Un análisis multivariado mostró asociación de transfusión de glóbulos rojos con mortalidad y falla multiorgánica. Conclusión: Las transfusiones de glóbulos rojos se asocian con un aumento en la Mortalidad y en el desarrollo de falla multiorgánica. La estancia en la UCI y el tiempo de ventilación mecánica fue mayor en los niños transfundidos.

Caracterización del perfil nutricional de pacientes pediátricos hospitalizados en la Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio

Introducción: La desnutrición intrahospitalaria es variable en los estudios publicados. Tiene impacto en el curso tórpido de la enfermedad, en la prolongación de la estancia hospitalaria y en los altos costos subsecuentes. No existen estudios realizados en Colombia en relación al estado nutricional del paciente pediátrico hospitalizado. Por este motivo se decidió caracterizar el perfil nutricional de pacientes pediátricos hospitalizados en la Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio Materiales y métodos: Se desarrolló un estudio transversal en pacientes pediátricos hospitalizados en un periodo entre Junio 2014 – Marzo 2015. Se realizó descripción de las variables y análisis univariado. Resultados: Se analizaron 320 pacientes: 50% niños y 50% niñas. Edad promedio: 4.6 años, predominio del grupo de los lactantes. Media de estancia hospitalaria: 4,6 días. Baja ingesta, ayuno, dolor de moderada intensidad y factor de estrés grado I fueron las variables más frecuentemente relacionadas con desnutrición. Al ingreso a hospitalización el 57.5 % se encontraron eutróficos, el 17.19% con desnutrición crónica, el 8.44% con desnutrición aguda y el 16.88% con aumento anormal de peso. Al egreso, los eutróficos disminuyeron a 56.25 %, la desnutrición crónica y el aumento anormal de peso se mantuvieron igual y la desnutrición aguda aumento al 10%. Conclusión: Los hallazgos de este estudio están en concordancia con los hallazgos descritos en la literatura. El mayor compromiso nutricional se asoció a patologías respiratorias y gastrointestinales y a mayor estancia hospitalaria.

La responsabilidad contractual de los organizadores y los detallistas de viajes combinados

Con la entrada en vigor de la Ley 21/1995, de 6 de julio, reguladora de los viajes combinados (LVC) se instaura una nuevo régimen de responsabilidad contractual del organizador y el detallista. Ahora el consumidor de esos viajes no sólo mantiene una relación contractual con el organizador si no también, en su caso, el detallista, cuya actuación deja de tener carácter representativo. Ambos sujetos responderán frente al consumidor "en función de las obligaciones que les correspondan por su ámbito respectivo de gestión del viaje combinado..." (art. 11.1), circunstancia que plantea algunas dificultades en orden a delimitar el alcance de su responsabilidad. Esa misma norma establece la responsabilidad del organizador por los actos de los prestadores de los servicios del viaje utilizados como auxiliares en el cumplimiento contractual. Analizados los sujetos responsables, la presente tesis doctoral estudia los supuestos de incumplimiento del contrato de viaje, las partidas de daños resarcibles y su extensión. El trabajo propone distintos criterios en orden a calcular el valor de los daños por lesión al llamado interés de prestación, los daños corporales, los daños ocasionados por el extravío, destrucción o deterioro de objetos del consumidor, los daños por gastos inútiles y costes de negocios de reemplazo, los daños no patrimoniales y los daños por ganancias dejadas de obtener. Cada una de esas partidas e daños merece un estudio pormenorizado. Así, por ejemplo, se constatan enormes problemas en cuanto a la identificación e indemnización separada de los daños por frustración o pérdida de vacaciones, así como la nesesidad de establecer unas circunstancias a las que los jueces deban acogerse para llevar a cabo su valoración discrecional. La tesis propone que dichas circunstanciasd sean el alcance del incumplimiento del contrato de viaje, las condiciones personales del consumidor, el tipo de vacaciones objeto del viaje contratado y el valor residual de las vacaciones.

Firm relocation and firm profits : Evidence from the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This study analyses the effects of firm relocation on firm profits, using longitudinal data on Swedish limtied liability firms and employing a difference-in-differnce propensity score method in the empirical analysis. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differneces between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced. In addition to that, a difference-in-difference estimator is employed in order to control for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. For matching, nearest neighbour matching, using the one-, two- and three nearest neighbours is employed. The balanacing results indicate that matching achieves a good balance, and that similar relocating and non-relocating firms are being compared. The estimated average treatment on the treatment effects indicate thats relocations has a significant effect on the profits of the relocating firms. In other words, firms taht relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the lenght of the analysed period after relocation.