Modern Portfolio Theory Applied to Electricity Resource Planning

To meet electricity demand, electric utilities develop growth strategies for generation, transmission, and distributions systems. For a long time those strategies have been developed by applying least-cost methodology, in which the cheapest stand-alone resources are simply added, instead of analyzing complete portfolios. As a consequence, least-cost methodology is biased in favor of fossil fuel-based technologies, completely ignoring the benefits of adding non-fossil fuel technologies to generation portfolios, especially renewable energies. For this reason, this thesis introduces modern portfolio theory (MPT) to gain a more profound insight into a generation portfolio’s performance using generation cost and risk metrics. We discuss all necessary assumptions and modifications to this finance technique for its application within power systems planning, and we present a real case of analysis. Finally, the results of this thesis are summarized, pointing out the main benefits and the scope of this new tool in the context of electricity generation planning.

Design of a least-cost battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for realizing dispatchable wind power

A statistical approach is used in the design of a battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for a wind farm. The design exploits the technical merits of the two energy storage mediums, in terms of the differences in their specific power and energy densities, and their ability to accommodate different rates of change in the charging/discharging powers. By treating the input wind power as random and using a proposed coordinated power flows control strategy for the battery and the supercapacitor, the approach evaluates the energy storage capacities, the corresponding expected life cycle cost/year of the storage mediums, and the expected cost/year of unmet power dispatch. A computational procedure is then developed for the design of a least-cost/year hybrid energy storage system to realize wind power dispatch at a specified confidence level.

Determination of the most suitable oil pipeline route using GIS least cost path analysis

The Keystone XL has a big role for transforming Canadian oil to the USA. The function of the pipeline is decreasing the dependency of the American oil industry on other countries and it will help to limit external debt. The proposed pipeline seeks the most suitable route which cannot damage agricultural and natural water recourses such as the Ogallala Aquifer. Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the suggested path in this study got extremely high correct results that will help in the future to use the least cost analysis for similar studies. The route analysis contains different weighted overlay surfaces, each, was influenced by various criteria (slope, geology, population and land use). The resulted least cost path routes for each weighted overlay surface were compared with the original proposed pipeline and each displayed surface was more effective than the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.

Least-cost Disjoint Paths with Dependent Cost Structure in Wavelength Continuous Optical WDM Networks

One of the important issues in establishing a fault tolerant connection in a wavelength division multiplexing optical network is computing a pair of disjoint working and protection paths and a free wavelength along the paths. While most of the earlier research focused only on computing disjoint paths, in this work we consider computing both disjoint paths and a free wavelength along the paths. The concept of dependent cost structure (DCS) of protection paths to enhance their resource sharing ability was proposed in our earlier work. In this work we extend the concept of DCS of protection paths to wavelength continuous networks. We formalize the problem of computing disjoint paths with DCS in wavelength continuous networks and prove that it is NP-complete. We present an iterative heuristic that uses a layered graph model to compute disjoint paths with DCS and identify a free wavelength.

Evaluation of the Newly-developed, Least-cost Experimental Diet for Bluegill at Commercial Densities in Ponds

A substantial need exists to reduce costs and develop more nutritionally adequate diets for established as well as emerging aquaculture species in the North Central Region (NCR). The study evaluated a diet for juvenile northern bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) that is significantly less costly than currently available diets for sunfish, while yielding a growth rate that is at least equal to an industry standard sunfish diet. Such a diet formulation is now available to the NCR as the result of a recently funded North Central Regional Aquaculture Center (NCRAC) project.

Potential connections (least-cost paths) between existing and potential bison habitat patches in the Carpathian Mountains

Habitat connectivity is important for the survival of species that occupy habitat patches too small to sustain an isolated population. A prominent example of such a species is the European bison (Bison bonasus), occurring only in small, isolated herds, and whose survival will depend on establishing larger, well-connected populations. Our goal here was to assess habitat connectivity of European bison in the Carpathians. We used an existing bison habitat suitability map and data on dispersal barriers to derive cost surfaces, representing the ability of bison to move across the landscape, and to delineate potential connections (as least-cost paths) between currently occupied and potential habitat patches. Graph theory tools were then employed to evaluate the connectivity of all potential habitat patches and their relative importance in the network. Our analysis showed that existing bison herds in Ukraine are isolated. However, we identified several groups of well-connected habitat patches in the Carpathians which could host a large population of European bison. Our analysis also located important dispersal corridors connecting existing herds, and several promising locations for future reintroductions (especially in the Eastern Carpathians) that should have a high priority for conservation efforts. In general, our approach indicates the most important elements within a landscape mosaic for providing and maintaining the overall connectivity of different habitat networks and thus offers a robust and powerful tool for conservation planning.

A cost-effective methodology applied to videoconference services over hybrid clouds

This paper tackles the optimization of applications in multi-provider hybrid cloud scenarios from an economic point of view. In these scenarios the great majority of solutions offer the automatic allocation of resources on different cloud providers based on their current prices. However our approach is intended to introduce a novel solution by making maximum use of divide and rule. This paper describes a methodology to create cost aware cloud applications that can be broken down into the three most important components in cloud infrastructures: computation, network and storage. A real videoconference system has been modified in order to evaluate this idea with both theoretical and empirical experiments. This system has become a widely used tool in several national and European projects for e-learning and collaboration purposes.

Cost analysis methodology and protocol estimates : OECD minimum pre-market data test protocols /

"EPA-560/4-81-002."

Enhancing governmental productivity through competition : a new way of doing business within the government, to provide quality government at least cost : a progress report on OMB circular no. A-76, "performance of commercial activities."

Mode of access: Internet.

A cost-effectiveness methodology for community mental health centers : development and pilot test /

Mode of access: Internet.

Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of drug interventions for schizophrenia

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of eight drug treatment scenarios for established schizophrenia. Method: Using a standardized methodology, costs and outcomes are modelled over the lifetime of prevalent cases of schizophrenia in Australia in 2000. A two-stage approach to assessment of health benefit is used. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, using best available evidence. The robustness of results is tested using probabilistic uncertainty analysis. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability) to allow broader concepts of benefit to be considered. Results: Replacing oral typicals with risperidone or olanzapine has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$48 000 and A$92 000/DALY respectively. Switching from low-dose typicals to risperidone has an ICER of A$80 000. Giving risperidone to people experiencing side-effects on typicals is more cost-effective at A$20 000. Giving clozapine to people taking typicals, with the worst course of the disorder and either little or clear deterioration, is cost-effective at A$42 000 or A$23 000/DALY respectively. The least cost-effective intervention is to replace risperidone with olanzapine at A$160 000/DALY. Conclusions: Based on an A$50 000/DALY threshold, low-dose typical neuroleptics are indicated as the treatment of choice for established schizophrenia, with risperidone being reserved for those experiencing moderate to severe side-effects on typicals. The more expensive olanzapine should only be prescribed when risperidone is not clinically indicated. The high cost of risperidone and olanzapine relative to modest health gains underlie this conclusion. Earlier introduction of clozapine however, would be cost-effective. This work is limited by weaknesses in trials (lack of long-term efficacy data, quality of life and consumer satisfaction evidence) and the translation of effect size into a DALY change. Some stakeholders, including SANE Australia, argue the modest health gains reported in the literature do not adequately reflect perceptions by patients, clinicians and carers, of improved quality of life with these atypicals.

Methodology to create cost estimation models for engineer-to-order operations

This research addresses the problem of cost estimation for product development in engineer-to-order (ETO) operations. An ETO operation starts the product development process with a product specification and ends with delivery of a rather complicated, highly customized product. ETO operations are practiced in various industries such as engineering tooling, factory plants, industrial boilers, pressure vessels, shipbuilding, bridges and buildings. ETO views each product as a delivery item in an industrial project and needs to make an accurate estimation of its development cost at the bidding and/or planning stage before any design or manufacturing activity starts. ^ Many ETO practitioners rely on an ad hoc approach to cost estimation, with use of past projects as reference, adapting them to the new requirements. This process is often carried out on a case-by-case basis and in a non-procedural fashion, thus limiting its applicability to other industry domains and transferability to other estimators. In addition to being time consuming, this approach usually does not lead to an accurate cost estimate, which varies from 30% to 50%. ^ This research proposes a generic cost modeling methodology for application in ETO operations across various industry domains. Using the proposed methodology, a cost estimator will be able to develop a cost estimation model for use in a chosen ETO industry in a more expeditious, systematic and accurate manner. ^ The development of the proposed methodology was carried out by following the meta-methodology as outlined by Thomann. Deploying the methodology, cost estimation models were created in two industry domains (building construction and the steel milling equipment manufacturing). The models are then applied to real cases; the cost estimates are significantly more accurate than the actual estimates, with mean absolute error rate of 17.3%. ^ This research fills an important need of quick and accurate cost estimation across various ETO industries. It differs from existing approaches to the problem in that a methodology is developed for use to quickly customize a cost estimation model for a chosen application domain. In addition to more accurate estimation, the major contributions are in its transferability to other users and applicability to different ETO operations. ^

Whole of life cycle cost analysis in bridge rehabilitation

The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.