A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Insulin-like growth factor 2 cDNA cloning and ontogeny of gene expression in the liver of the marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)

The cDNA sequence for insulin-like growth factor 2 (IGF-2) was determined from the liver of the marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) using reverse transcription followed by polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) with gene-specific primers. The 359 bp of possum sequence encompassed the mature peptide, 27 bp of the signal peptide, and 125 bp of the E-peptide. Alignment of the deduced amino acid sequence with those from other species indicated that the mature peptide was 71 amino acids in length, 4 amino acids longer than most other mammals. At both the nucleotide and amino acid levels there was a high degree of sequence identity with IGF-2 from other mammalian and nonmammalian species. Amino acid identity ranged from 94.4% with a variant form of human IGF-2 to 80.3% with zebrafinch IGF-2. Northern analysis revealed that radiolabeled possum IGF-2, cDNA hybridized to multiple transcripts in the liver of both adult possums and 150-day-old pouch young and that the overall level of expression was greater in pouch young. Semiquantitative RT-PCR with total RNA from liver samples of pouch young aged 12 to 150 days postpartum and adults confirmed that IGF-2 gene expression was two to three times more abundant in pouch young than in adults but there was no significant change in the level of expression during pouch life. Unlike other mammalian species, in which there is a decline in levels of liver IGF-2 gene expression around the time of birth, levels in the marsupial brushtail possum remain elevated for at least 150 days after birth. This suggests that the decline in liver IGF-2 expression in marsupials and eutherians occurs at a similar stage of development and may reflect a role for this growth factor during the postnatal growth and development of the marsupial, (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Plasma growth hormone and growth hormone-binding protein during development in the marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)

Plasma concentrations of growth hormone (GH) were measured in the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) pouch young from 25 through to 198 days post-partum (n=71). GH concentrations were highest early in pouch life (around 100 ng/ml), and thereafter declined in an exponential fashion to reach adult concentrations (10.8 +/- 1.8 ng/ml; n=21) by approximately 121-145 days post-partum, one to two months before the young is weaned. Growth hormone-binding protein (GHBP), which has been shown to modify the cellular actions of GH in eutherian mammals, was identified for the first time in a marsupial. Based on size exclusion gel filtration, possum GHBP had an estimated molecular mass of approximate to 65 kDa, similar to that identified in other mammalian species, and binding of I-125-labelled human GH (hGH) was displaced by excess hGH (20 mug). An immunoprecipitation method, in which plasma GHBP was rendered polyethylene glycol precipitable with a monoclonal antibody to the rabbit GHBP/GH receptor (MAb 43) and labelled with I-125-hGH, was used to quantitate plasma GHBP by Scatchard analysis in the developing (pooled plasma samples) and adult (individual animals) possums. Binding affinity (K-a) values in pouch young aged between 45 and 54 and 144 and 153 days post-partum varied between 1.0 and 2.4 x 10(9)/M, which was slightly higher than that in adult plasma (0.96 +/- 0.2 x 10(9)/M, n = 6). Binding capacity (B-max) values increased from non-detectable levels in animals aged 25-38 days post-partum to reach concentrations around half that seen in the adult (1.4 +/- 0.2 x 10(-9) M) by about 117 days post-partum and remained at this level until 153 days post-partum. Therefore, in early pouch life when plasma GH concentrations are highest, the very low concentrations of GHBP are unlikely to be important in terms of competing with GH-receptor for ligand or altering the half-life of circulating GH.

Role of PGF(2 alpha) and oxytocin in parturition in the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)

Maturation of the fetal pituitary and adrenal glands allows the secretion of cortisol, which in turn leads to an increase in prostaglandin and mesotocin production. The production of prostaglandin and mesotocin results in an increase in uterine contractions and initiates birth in marsupials. The major metabolite of PGF(2alpha), 13,14-dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F-2alpha (PGFM), has been found in the plasma of the possum at the time of birth and administration of PGF(2alpha) to female possums induced the adoption of the birth position. Evidence that mesotocin is an integral hormone of birth in the tammar wallaby indicates that both PGF(2alpha) and mesotocin or oxytocin are required for marsupial birth. The presence of PGF(2alpha) receptors in the uterus and corpus luteum of the possum, and the in vitro uterine responsiveness to PGF(2alpha) or oxytocin, were examined. PGF(2alpha) receptors were not observed in possum uteri and the inability of PGF(2alpha) to cause contractions indicates that PGF(2alpha) is not involved directly in contraction of the uterus at parturition. The presence of oxytocin and mesotocin receptors in the uterus of possoms and the ability of oxytocin to induce uterine contraction in vitro supports the view that mesotocin is required for expulsion of the young from the uterus. Low numbers of PGF(2alpha) receptors were found in the possum corpus luteum at birth, indicating an involvement of PGF(2alpha) in regression of the corpus luteum.

POSSUM escore como preditor de mortalidade em pacientes cirúrgicos

O estudo avaliou a utilização do escore POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity) para predizer a mortalidade na prática cirúrgica.Foram analisados 416 pacientes cirúrgicos com internação na UTI para cuidados de pós-operatório. Foram realizadas comparações entre as taxas de mortalidade predita e observada de acordo com 4 grupos de risco: 0-4%, 5-14%, 15-49%, 50% ou mais, e calculada a área sob a curva ROC do escore POSSUM e APACHE II para a mortalidade. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 22,4%. O escores POSSUM e APACHE II superestimaram o risco de morte, e a área sob a curva ROC do POSSUM foi de 0,762 e a do APACHE II de 0,737, sugerindo a utilização do POSSUM como ferramenta auxiliar na predição de risco de morte em pacientes cirúrgicos.

Metabolic, hygric and ventilatory physiology of a hypermetabolic marsupial, the honey possum (Tarsipes rostratus)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bestiary: Possum

Oil

Possum Man

Mixed Media 48 x 42"

Gastrointestinal transit in the common brushtail possum measured by gamma scintigraphy

This paper reports an example of the application of pharmaceutical technology to wildlife management, specifically the design of an oral delivery system for the common brushtail possum in New Zealand. Designing an oral delivery system requires a knowledge of the time taken for particulates to reach target sites within the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). The transit time for fluid and indigestible particles of two different size ranges was determined in the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Technetium-labelled (Tc-99m) anion exchange resin particles (75-125 or 500-700 mu m diameter) or solution (Tc-99m-labelled diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid, Tc-99m-DTPA) was administered orally. At predetermined times after dosing (3, 6, 12, 24 or 32 h), the distribution of radioactivity throughout excised gastrointestinal tracts was determined by gamma scintigraphy. The transit profile was similar for the three formulations investigated. Unlike other closely related hindgut fermenting marsupials, there was no evidence to support the presence of a colonic separating mechanism in the common brushtail possum. Gastrointestinal transit was independent of body mass, gender and time of day that the dose is given. To target the hindgut for oral delivery of protein and peptide biocontrol agents, the formulation Would need to protect the bioactive for approximately 12 h prior to release. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.