Impacts of concurrency, iteration, design review, and problem complexity on design project lead time and error generation

A case study of an aircraft engine manufacturer is used to analyze the effects of management levers on the lead time and design errors generated in an iteration-intensive concurrent engineering process. The levers considered are amount of design-space exploration iteration, degree of process concurrency, and timing of design reviews. Simulation is used to show how the ideal combination of these levers can vary with changes in design problem complexity, which can increase, for instance, when novel technology is incorporated in a design. Results confirm that it is important to consider multiple iteration-influencing factors and their interdependencies to understand concurrent processes, because the factors can interact with confounding effects. The article also demonstrates a new approach to derive a system dynamics model from a process task network. The new approach could be applied to analyze other concurrent engineering scenarios. © The Author(s) 2012.

Probability Theory. Stochastic Processes And Their Applications Probabilistic Analysis Of Some Queueing And Inventory Models

In this thesis we attempt to make a probabilistic analysis of some physically realizable, though complex, storage and queueing models. It is essentially a mathematical study of the stochastic processes underlying these models. Our aim is to have an improved understanding of the behaviour of such models, that may widen their applicability. Different inventory systems with randon1 lead times, vacation to the server, bulk demands, varying ordering levels, etc. are considered. Also we study some finite and infinite capacity queueing systems with bulk service and vacation to the server and obtain the transient solution in certain cases. Each chapter in the thesis is provided with self introduction and some important references

Effects of age at first calving, gestation length and dry period on milk yield in a Gyr herd

Relationships of several reproductve traits and milk yield were studied in 716 Gyr cows at Sant'Ana da Serra farm, Mococa, State of São Paulo, a humid tropical climate region. Mean age at first calving was 49.8 +/- 0.4 months, with a coeficient of cariation (C. V.) of 20.8%. Only year of parturition significantly affected age at first calving (P < 0.01). Heritability, estimated from paternal half-sib correlations, was 0.91 +/- 0.20, a value considered unrealistically high. Overall mean gestation length was 287.7 +/- 0.5 days (C. V. = 3.3%) for 419 observations, with month and year of parturition having significant effects. Heritability estimate was 0.30 +/- 0.14. Overall mean dry period for 1.276 observations was 238 +/- 3 days (C. V. = 48%); repeatability estimate was 0.19 +/- 0.06. Estimated annual genetic trend for dry period was -0.6 days, phenotypic trend was 11.5 days, and environmental trend, 12.1 days. Month and year of parturition and cow age had no significant effect on dry period. Highest milk yield was obtained at fourth lactation. The gross correlation between milk yield and gestation period was 0.11, and between previous dry period and subsequent milk yield, 0.16. Normal gestations of 285 to 290 days were associated with higher milk yields. Milk yield increased as dry period advanced from 30 to 390 days, and declined as dry period continued beyond 390 days. Delays in first mating and a more extensive dry period decreased reproductive efficiency in the herd studied.

Lipid and glucose profiles of dairy buffaloes during lactation and dry period

The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of lactation and dry period in the constituents of lipid and glucose metabolism of buffaloes. One hundred forty-seven samples of serum and plasma were collected between November 2009 and July 2010, from properties raising Murrah, Mediterranean and crossbred buffaloes, located in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Biochemical analysis was obtained by determining the contents of serum cholesterol, triglycerides, beta-hydroxybutyrate (β-HBO), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and plasma glucose. Values for arithmetic mean and standard error mean were calculated using the SAS procedure, version 9.2. Tests for normality of residuals and homogeneity of variances were performed using the SAS Guide Data Analysis. Data were analyzed by ANOVA using the SAS procedure Glimmix. The group information (Lactation), Farm and Age were used in the statistical models. Means of groups were compared using Least Square Means (LSMeans) of SAS, where significant difference was observed at P ≤ 0.05. It was possible to conclude that buffaloes during peak lactation need to metabolize body reserves to supplement the lower amounts of bloodstream lipids, when they remain in negative energy balance. In the dry period, there were significant changes in the lipid profile, characterized by decrease of nutritional requirements, with consequent improvement in the general conditions of the animals.

Differential expression of ABC transporters and their regulatory genes during lactation and dry period in bovine mammary tissue

ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play a pivotal role in human physiology, and mutations in these genes often result in severe hereditary diseases. ABC transporters are expressed in the bovine mammary gland but their physiological role in this organ remains elusive. Based on findings in the context of human disorders we speculated that candidate ABC transporters are implicated in lipid and cholesterol transport in the mammary gland. Therefore we investigated the expression pattern of selected genes that are associated with sterol transport in lactating and nonlactating mammary glands of dairy cows. mRNA levels from mammary gland biopsies taken during lactation and in the first and second week of the dry period were analysed using quantitative PCR. Five ABC transporter genes, namely ABCA1, ABCA7, ABCG1, ABCG2 and ABCG5, their regulating genes LXRalpha, PPARgamma, SREBP1 and the milk proteins lactoferrin and alpha-lactalbumin were assessed. A significantly enhanced expression in the dry period was observed for ABCA1 while a significant decrease of expression in this period was detected for ABCA7, ABCG2, SREBP1 and alpha-lactalbumin. ABCG1, ABCG5, LXRalpha, PPARgamma and lactoferrin expression was not altered between lactation and dry period. These results indicate that candidate ABC transporters involved in lipid and cholesterol transport show differential mRNA expression between lactation and the dry period. This may be due to physiological changes in the mammary gland such as immigration of macrophages or the accumulation of fat due to the loss of liquid in the involuting mammary gland. The current mRNA expression analysis of transporters in the mammary gland is the prerequisite for elucidating novel molecular mechanisms underlying cholesterol and lipid transfer into milk.

The influence of time on lead toxicity and bioaccumulation determined by the OECD earthworm toxicity test

Internationally agreed standard protocols for assessing chemical toxicity of contaminants in soil to worms assume that the test soil does not need to equilibrate with the chemical to be tested prior to the addition of the test organisms and that the chemical will exert any toxic effect upon the test organism within 28 days. Three experiments were carried out to investigate these assumptions. The first experiment was a standard toxicity test where lead nitrate was added to a soil in solution to give a range of concentrations. The mortality of the worms and the concentration of lead in the survivors were determined. The LC(50)s for 14 and 28 days were 5311 and 5395 mug(Pb) g(soil)(-1) respectively. The second experiment was a timed lead accumulation study with worms cultivated in soil containing either 3000 or 5000 mug(Pb) g(soil)(-1). The concentration of lead in the worms was determined at various sampling times. Uptake at so' Sol both concentrations was linear with time. Worms in the 5000 mug g(-1) soil accumulated lead at a faster rate (3.16 mug Pb g(tissue)(-1) day(-1)) tiss than those in the 3000 mug g(-1) soil (2.21 mug Pb-tissue g(-1) day(-1)). The third experiment was a timed experiment with worms cultivated in tiss soil containing 7000 mugPb g(soil)(-1). Soil and lead nitrate solution were mixed and stored at 20 degreesC. Worms were added at various times over a 35-day period. The time to death increased from 23 h, when worms were added directly after the lead was added to the soil, to 67 It when worms were added after the soil had equilibrated with the lead for 35 days. In artificially Pb-amended soils the worms accumulate Pb over the duration of their exposure to the Pb. Thus time limited toxicity tests may be terminated before worm body load has reached a toxic level. This could result in under-estimates of the toxicity of Pb to worms. As the equilibration time of artificially amended Pb-bearing soils increases the bioavailability of Pb decreases. Thus addition of worms shortly after addition of Pb to soils may result in the over-estimate of Pb toxicity to worms. The current OECD acute worm toxicity test fails to take these two phenomena into account thereby reducing the environmental relevance of the contaminant toxicities it is used to calculate. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene expression of tumour necrosis factor and insulin signalling-related factors in subcutaneous adipose tissue during the dry period and in early lactation in dairy cows

Gene expression of adipose factors, which may be part of the mechanisms that underlie insulin sensitivity, were studied in dairy cows around parturition. Subcutaneous fat biopsies and blood samples were taken from 27 dairy cows in week 8 antepartum (a.p.), on day 1 postpartum (p.p.) and in week 5 p.p. In the adipose tissue samples, mRNA was quantified by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha), insulin-independent glucose transporter (GLUT1), insulin-responsive glucose transporter (GLUT4), insulin receptor, insulin receptor substrate 1 (IRS1), insulin receptor substrate 2 (IRS2), regulatory subunit of phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase (p85) and catalytic subunit of phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase. Blood plasma was assayed for concentrations of glucose, beta-hydroxybutyric acid, non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and insulin. Plasma parameters followed a pattern typically observed in dairy cows. Gene expression changes were observed, but there were no changes in TNFalpha concentrations, which may indicate its local involvement in catabolic adaptation of adipose tissue. Changes in GLUT4 and GLUT1 mRNA abundance may reflect their involvement in reduced insulin sensitivity and in sparing glucose for milk synthesis in early lactation. Unchanged gene expression of IRS1, IRS2 and p85 over time may imply a lack of their involvement in terms of insulin sensitivity dynamics. Alternatively, it may indicate that post-transcriptional modifications of these factors came into play and may have concealed an involvement.

Variation in hepatic regulation of metabolism during the dry period and in early lactation in dairy cows

The purpose of this study was to investigate variations in hepatic regulation of metabolism during the dry period, after parturition, and in early lactation in dairy cows. For this evaluation, cows were divided into 2 groups based on the plasma concentration of beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA) in wk 4 postpartum (PP; group HB, BHBA >0.75 mmol/L; group LB, BHBA <0.75 mmol/L, respectively). Liver biopsies were obtained from 28 cows at drying off (mean 59 +/- 8 d antepartum), on d 1, and in wk 4 and 14 PP. Blood samples were collected every 2 wk during this entire period. Liver samples were analyzed for mRNA abundance of genes related to carbohydrate metabolism (pyruvate carboxylase, PC; phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, PEPCK; citrate synthase, CS), fatty acid biosynthesis (ATP citrate lyase, ACLY) and oxidation (acyl-CoA synthetase long-chain, ACSL; carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1A, CPT 1A; carnitine palmitoyltransferase 2, CPT 2; acyl-coenzyme A dehydrogenase very long chain, ACADVL), cholesterol biosynthesis (3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A synthase 1, HMGCS1), ketogenesis (3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A synthase 2, HMGCS2), and of genes encoding the transcription factors peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma), and sterol regulatory element binding factor 1 (SREBF1). Blood plasma was assayed for concentrations of glucose, BHBA, nonesterified fatty acids, cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, insulin-like growth factor-I, and thyroid hormones. In both groups, plasma parameters followed a pattern usually observed in dairy cows. However, changes were moderate and the energy balance in cows turned positive in wk 7 PP for both groups. Additionally, the energy balance and milk yield were similar for both groups after parturition onwards. Significant group effects were found at drying off, when plasma concentrations of triglycerides were higher in LB than in HB, and in wk 4 PP, when plasma concentrations of glucose and IGF-I were lower in HB than in LB. Similarly, moderate changes in mRNA expression of hepatic genes between the different time points were observed, although HB cows showed more adaptive performance than LB cows based on changes in mRNA expression of PEPCKc, PEPCKm, CS, CPT 1A, CPT 2, and PPARalpha. Part of the variation measured in this study was explained by parity. Significant Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the variables were not similar at each time point and were not similar between the groups at each time point, suggesting that metabolic regulation differs between cows. In conclusion, metabolic regulation in dairy cows is a dynamic system, and differs obviously between cows at different metabolic stages related to parturition.

Cow, farm, and management factors during the dry period that determine the rate of clinical mastitis after calving

The purpose of the research was to investigate cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on the rate of clinical mastitis after calving. Data were collected over a 2-yr period from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales. Cows were separated for analysis into those housed for the dry period (8,710 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (9,964 cow-dry periods). Multilevel models were used within a Bayesian framework with 2 response variables, the occurrence of a first case of clinical mastitis within the first 30 d of lactation and time to the first case of clinical mastitis during lactation. A variety of cow and herd management factors were identified as being associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis and these were found to occur throughout the dry period. Significant cow factors were increased parity and at least one somatic cell count ≥200,000 cells/mL in the 90 d before drying off. A number of management factors related to hygiene were significantly associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis. These included measures linked to the administration of dry-cow treatments and management of the early and late dry-period accommodation and calving areas. Other farm factors associated with a reduced rate of clinical mastitis were vaccination with a leptospirosis vaccine, selection of dry-cow treatments for individual cows within a herd rather than for the herd as a whole, routine body condition scoring of cows at drying off, and a pasture rotation policy of grazing dry cows for a maximum of 2 wk before allowing the pasture to remain nongrazed for a period of 4 wk. Models demonstrated a good ability to predict the farm incidence rate of clinical mastitis in a given year, with model predictions explaining over 85% of the variability in the observed data. The research indicates that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on the rate of clinical mastitis during the next lactation.

Cow, farm, and herd management factors in the dry period associated with raised somatic cell counts in early lactation

This study investigated cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on somatic cell counts (SCC) in early lactation. Data from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales were collected over a 2-yr period. For the purpose of analysis, cows were separated into those housed for the dry period (6,419 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (7,425 cow-dry periods). Bayesian multilevel models were specified with 2 response variables: ln SCC (continuous) and SCC >199,000 cells/mL (binary), both within 30 d of calving. Cow factors associated with an increased SCC after calving were parity, an SCC >199,000 cells/mL in the 60 d before drying off, increasing milk yield 0 to 30 d before drying off, and reduced DIM after calving at the time of SCC estimation. Herd management factors associated with an increased SCC after calving included procedures at drying off, aspects of bedding management, stocking density, and method of pasture grazing. Posterior predictions were used for model assessment, and these indicated that model fit was generally good. The research demonstrated that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on SCC in early lactation.

Formative time lags in nitrogen, oxygen and dry air In crossed electric and magnetic fields

Formative time lags in nitrogen, oxygen, and dry air are measured with and without a magnetic field over a range of gas pressures (0.05 ' p ' 20.2 torr 5 kPa to 2 MPa, electric field strengths (1.8xO14 EEs 60xlO V m l) and magnetic field strengths (85xl0-4 < B ' 16x10-2 Tesla). For experiments below the Paschen minimum, the electrodes are designed to ensure that breakdown occurs over longer gaps and for experiments above the Paschen minimum, a coaxial cylindrical system is employed. The experimental technique consists of applying pulse voltages to the gap at various constant values of E/p and B/p and measuring the time lags from which the formative time lags are separated. In the gases studed, formative time lags decrease on application of a magnetic field at a given pressure for conditions below the Paschen minimum. The voltages at which the formative time lags remain the same without and with magnetic fields are determined, and electron molecule collision frequencies (v/p) are determined using the Effective Reduced Electric Field [EREF] concept. With increasing ratio of E/p in crossed fields, v/p decreases in all the three gases. Measurements above the Paschen minimum yield formative time lags which increase on application of a magnetic field. Formative time lags in nitrogen in ExB fields are calculated assuming an average collision frequency of 8.5x109 sec-1 torr 1. It is concluded that the EREF concept can be applied to explain formative time lags in ExB fields.

Genetics of heifer performance in 'wet' and 'dry' seasons and their relationships with steer performance in two tropical beef genotypes.

The genetics of heifer performance in tropical 'wet' and 'dry' seasons, and relationships with steer performance, were studied in Brahman (BRAH) and Tropical Composite (TCOMP) (50% Bos indicus, African Sanga or other tropically adapted Bos taurus; 50% non-tropically adapted Bos taurus) cattle of northern Australia. Data were from 2159 heifers (1027 BRAH, 1132 TCOMP), representing 54 BRAH and 51 TCOMP sires. Heifers were assessed after post-weaning 'wet' (ENDWET) and 'dry' (ENDDRY) seasons. Steers were assessed post-weaning, at feedlot entry, over a 70-day feed test, and after similar to 120-day finishing. Measures studied in both heifers and steers were liveweight (LWT), scanned rump fat, rib fat and M. longissimus area (SEMA), body condition score (CS), hip height (HH), serum insulin-like growth factor-I concentration (IGF-I), and average daily gains (ADG). Additional steer measures were scanned intra-muscular fat%, flight time, and daily (DFI) and residual feed intake (RFI). Uni- and bivariate analyses were conducted for combined genotypes and for individual genotypes. Genotype means were predicted for a subset of data involving 34 BRAH and 26 TCOMP sires. A meta-analysis of genetic correlation estimates examined how these were related to the difference between measurement environments for specific traits. There were genotype differences at the level of means, variances and genetic correlations. BRAH heifers were significantly (P < 0.05) faster-growing in the 'wet' season, slower-growing in the 'dry' season, lighter at ENDDRY, and taller and fatter with greater CS and IGF-I at both ENDWET and ENDDRY. Heritabilities were generally in the 20 to 60% range for both genotypes. Phenotypic and genetic variances, and genetic correlations, were commonly lower for BRAH. Differences were often explained by the long period of tropical adaptation of B. indicus. Genetic correlations were high between corresponding measures at ENDWET and ENDDRY, positive between fat and muscle measures in TCOMP but negative in BRAH (mean of 13 estimates 0.50 and -0.19, respectively), and approximately zero between steer feedlot ADG and heifer ADG in BRAH. Numerous genetic correlations between heifers and steers differed substantially from unity, especially in BRAH, suggesting there may be scope to select differently in the sexes where that would aid the differing roles of heifers and steers in production. Genetic correlations declined as measurement environments became more different, the rates of decline (environment sensitivity) sometimes differing with genotype. Similar measures (LWT, HH and ADG; IGF-I at ENDWET in TCOMP) were genetically correlated with steer DFI in heifers as in steers. Heifer SEMA was genetically correlated with steer feedlot RFI in BRAH (0.75 +/- 0.27 at ENDWET, 0.66 +/- 0.24 at ENDDRY). Selection to reduce steer RFI would reduce SEMA in BRAH heifers but otherwise have only small effects on heifers before their first joining.

Weed dynamics as influenced by tillage system, sowing time and weed competition duration in dry-seeded rice

Cultural practices alter patterns of crop growth and can modify dynamics of weed-crop competition, and hence need to be investigated to evolve sustainable weed management in dry-seeded rice (DSR). Studies on weed dynamics in DSR sown at different times under two tillage systems were conducted at the Agronomic Research Farm, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. A commonly grown fine rice cultivar 'Super Basmati' was sown on 15th June and 7th July of 2010 and 2011 under zero-till (ZT) and conventional tillage (CONT) and it was subjected to different durations of weed competition [10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 days after sowing (DAS) and season-long competition]. Weed-free plots were maintained under each tillage system and sowing time for comparison. Grassy weeds were higher under ZT while CONT had higher relative proportion of broad-leaved weeds in terms of density and biomass. Density of sedges was higher by 175% in the crop sown on the 7th July than on the 15th June. Delaying sowing time of DSR from mid June to the first week of July reduced weed density by 69 and 43% but their biomass remained unaffected. Tillage systems had no effect on total weed biomass. Plots subjected to season-long weed competition had mostly grasses while broad-leaved weeds were not observed at harvest. In the second year of study, dominance of grassy weeds was increased under both tillage systems and sowing times. Significantly less biomass (48%) of grassy weeds was observed under CONT than ZT in 2010; however, during 2011, this effect was non-significant. Trianthema portulacastrum and Dactyloctenium aegyptium were the dominant broad-leaved and grassy weeds, respectively. Cyperus rotundus was the dominant sedge weed, especially in the crop sown on the 7th July. Relative yield loss (RYL) ranged from 3 to 13% and 7 to16% when weeds were allowed to compete only for 20 DAS. Under season-long weed competition, RYL ranged from 68 to 77% in 2010 and 74 to80% in 2011. The sowing time of 15th June was effective in minimizing weed proliferation and rectifying yield penalty associated with the 7th July sowing. The results suggest that DSR in Pakistan should preferably be sown on 15th June under CONT systems and weeds must be controlled before 20 DAS to avoid yield losses. Successful adoption of DSR at growers' fields in Pakistan will depend on whether growers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed population from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of DSR adoption.

Logistics Network Design with Differentiated Delivery Lead-Time: Benefits and Insights

Most logistics network design models assume exogenous customer demand that is independent of the service time or level. This paper examines the benefits of segmenting demand according to lead-time sensitivity of customers. To capture lead-time sensitivity in the network design model, we use a facility grouping method to ensure that the different demand classes are satisfied on time. In addition, we perform a series of computational experiments to develop a set of managerial insights for the network design decision making process.