972 resultados para Latin Hypercube Design


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Although uncertainties in material properties have been addressed in the design of flexible pavements, most current modeling techniques assume that pavement layers are homogeneous. The paper addresses the influence of the spatial variability of the resilient moduli of pavement layers by evaluating the effect of the variance and correlation length on the pavement responses to loading. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random field with the finite-difference method has been achieved through an exponential autocorrelation function. The variation in the correlation length was found to have a marginal effect on the mean values of the critical strains and a noticeable effect on the standard deviation which decreases with decreases in correlation length. This reduction in the variance arises because of the spatial averaging phenomenon over the softer and stiffer zones generated because of spatial variability. The increase in the mean value of critical strains with decreasing correlation length, although minor, illustrates that pavement performance is adversely affected by the presence of spatially varying layers. The study also confirmed that the higher the variability in the pavement layer moduli, introduced through a higher value of coefficient of variation (COV), the higher the variability in the pavement response. The study concludes that ignoring spatial variability by modeling the pavement layers as homogeneous that have very short correlation lengths can result in the underestimation of the critical strains and thus an inaccurate assessment of the pavement performance. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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Deterministic computer simulations of physical experiments are now common techniques in science and engineering. Often, physical experiments are too time consuming, expensive or impossible to conduct. Complex computer models or codes, rather than physical experiments lead to the study of computer experiments, which are used to investigate many scientific phenomena of this nature. A computer experiment consists of a number of runs of the computer code with different input choices. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments is a rapidly growing technique in statistical experimental design. This thesis investigates some practical issues in the design and analysis of computer experiments and attempts to answer some of the questions faced by experimenters using computer experiments. In particular, the question of the number of computer experiments and how they should be augmented is studied and attention is given to when the response is a function over time.

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In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

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The paper proposes Latin hypercube sampling combined with the stratified sampling of variance reduction technique to calculate accurate fracture probability. In the compound sampling, the number of simulations is relatively small and the calculation error is satisfactory.

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Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.

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This paper considers the optimal design of fabricated steel beams for long-span portal frames. The design optimisation takes into account ultimate as well as serviceability limit states, adopting deflection limits recommended by the Steel Construction Institute (SCI). Results for three benchmark frames demonstrate the efficiency of the optimisation methodology. A genetic algorithm (GA) was used to optimise the dimensions of the plates used for the columns, rafters and haunches. Discrete decision variables were adopted for the thickness of the steel plates and continuous variables for the breadth and depth of the plates. Strategies were developed to enhance the performance of the GA including solution space reduction and a hybrid initial population half of which is derived using Latin hypercube sampling. The results show that the proposed GA-based optimisation model generates optimal and near-optimal solutions consistently. A parametric study is then conducted on frames of different spans. A significant variation in weight between fabricated and conventional hot-rolled steel portal frames is shown; for a 50 m span frame, a 14–19% saving in weight was achieved. Furthermore, since Universal Beam sections in the UK come from a discrete section library, the results could also provide overall dimensions of other beams that could be more efficient for portal frames. Eurocode 3 was used for illustrative purposes; any alternative code of practice may be used.

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This paper presents a method of spatial sampling based on stratification by Local Moran’s I i calculated using auxiliary information. The sampling technique is compared to other design-based approaches including simple random sampling, systematic sampling on a regular grid, conditional Latin Hypercube sampling and stratified sampling based on auxiliary information, and is illustrated using two different spatial data sets. Each of the samples for the two data sets is interpolated using regression kriging to form a geostatistical map for their respective areas. The proposed technique is shown to be competitive in reproducing specific areas of interest with high accuracy.

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A robust aeroelastic optimization is performed to minimize helicopter vibration with uncertainties in the design variables. Polynomial response surfaces and space-¯lling experimental designs are used to generate the surrogate model of aeroelastic analysis code. Aeroelastic simulations are performed at the sample inputs generated by Latin hypercube sampling. The response values which does not satisfy the frequency constraints are eliminated from the data for model ¯tting. This step increased the accuracy of response surface models in the feasible design space. It is found that the response surface models are able to capture the robust optimal regions of design space. The optimal designs show a reduction of 10 percent in the objective function comprising six vibratory hub loads and 1.5 to 80 percent reduction for the individual vibratory forces and moments. This study demonstrates that the second-order response surface models with space ¯lling-designs can be a favorable choice for computationally intensive robust aeroelastic optimization.

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Designing and optimizing high performance microprocessors is an increasingly difficult task due to the size and complexity of the processor design space, high cost of detailed simulation and several constraints that a processor design must satisfy. In this paper, we propose the use of empirical non-linear modeling techniques to assist processor architects in making design decisions and resolving complex trade-offs. We propose a procedure for building accurate non-linear models that consists of the following steps: (i) selection of a small set of representative design points spread across processor design space using latin hypercube sampling, (ii) obtaining performance measures at the selected design points using detailed simulation, (iii) building non-linear models for performance using the function approximation capabilities of radial basis function networks, and (iv) validating the models using an independently and randomly generated set of design points. We evaluate our model building procedure by constructing non-linear performance models for programs from the SPEC CPU2000 benchmark suite with a microarchitectural design space that consists of 9 key parameters. Our results show that the models, built using a relatively small number of simulations, achieve high prediction accuracy (only 2.8% error in CPI estimates on average) across a large processor design space. Our models can potentially replace detailed simulation for common tasks such as the analysis of key microarchitectural trends or searches for optimal processor design points.

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Offshore wind turbines operate in a complex unsteady flow environment which causes unsteady aerodynamic loads. The unsteady flow environment is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, geometry variations and material imperfections also cause uncertainties in the design process. Probabilistic design methods consider these uncertainties in order to reach acceptable reliability and safety levels for offshore wind turbines. Variations of the rotor blade geometry influence the aerodynamic loads which also affect the reliability of other wind turbine components. Therefore, the present paper is dealing with geometric uncertainties of the rotor blades. These can arise from manufacturing tolerances and operational wear of the blades. First, the effect of geometry variations of wind turbine airfoils on the lift and drag coefficients are investigated using a Latin hypercube sampling. Then, the resulting effects on the performance and the blade loads of an offshore wind turbine are analyzed. The variations of the airfoil geometry lead to a significant scatter of the lift and drag coefficients which also affects the damage-equivalent flapwise bending moments. In contrast to that, the effects on the power and the annual energy production are almost negligible with regard to the assumptions made.

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Purpose Commencing selected workouts with low muscle glycogen availability augments several markers of training adaptation compared with undertaking the same sessions with normal glycogen content. However, low glycogen availability reduces the capacity to perform high-intensity (>85% of peak aerobic power (V·O2peak)) endurance exercise. We determined whether a low dose of caffeine could partially rescue the reduction in maximal self-selected power output observed when individuals commenced high-intensity interval training with low (LOW) compared with normal (NORM) glycogen availability. Methods Twelve endurance-trained cyclists/triathletes performed four experimental trials using a double-blind Latin square design. Muscle glycogen content was manipulated via exercise–diet interventions so that two experimental trials were commenced with LOW and two with NORM muscle glycogen availability. Sixty minutes before an experimental trial, subjects ingested a capsule containing anhydrous caffeine (CAFF, 3 mg-1·kg-1 body mass) or placebo (PLBO). Instantaneous power output was measured throughout high-intensity interval training (8 × 5-min bouts at maximum self-selected intensity with 1-min recovery). Results There were significant main effects for both preexercise glycogen content and caffeine ingestion on power output. LOW reduced power output by approximately 8% compared with NORM (P < 0.01), whereas caffeine increased power output by 2.8% and 3.5% for NORM and LOW, respectively, (P < 0.01). Conclusion We conclude that caffeine enhanced power output independently of muscle glycogen concentration but could not fully restore power output to levels commensurate with that when subjects commenced exercise with normal glycogen availability. However, the reported increase in power output does provide a likely performance benefit and may provide a means to further enhance the already augmented training response observed when selected sessions are commenced with reduced muscle glycogen availability. It has long been known that endurance training induces a multitude of metabolic and morphological adaptations that improve the resistance of the trained musculature to fatigue and enhance endurance capacity and/or exercise performance (13). Accumulating evidence now suggests that many of these adaptations can be modified by nutrient availability (9–11,21). Growing evidence suggests that training with reduced muscle glycogen using a “train twice every second day” compared with a more traditional “train once daily” approach can enhance the acute training response (29) and markers representative of endurance training adaptation after short-term (3–10 wk) training interventions (8,16,30). Of note is that the superior training adaptation in these previous studies was attained despite a reduction in maximal self-selected power output (16,30). The most obvious factor underlying the reduced intensity during a second training bout is the reduction in muscle glycogen availability. However, there is also the possibility that other metabolic and/or neural factors may be responsible for the power drop-off observed when two exercise bouts are performed in close proximity. Regardless of the precise mechanism(s), there remains the intriguing possibility that the magnitude of training adaptation previously reported in the face of a reduced training intensity (Hulston et al. (16) and Yeo et al.) might be further augmented, and/or other aspects of the training stimulus better preserved, if power output was not compromised. Caffeine ingestion is a possible strategy that might “rescue” the aforementioned reduction in power output that occurs when individuals commence high-intensity interval training (HIT) with low compared with normal glycogen availability. Recent evidence suggests that, at least in endurance-based events, the maximal benefits of caffeine are seen at small to moderate (2–3 mg·kg-1 body mass (BM)) doses (for reviews, see Refs. (3,24)). Accordingly, in this study, we aimed to determine the effect of a low dose of caffeine (3 mg·kg-1 BM) on maximal self-selected power output during HIT commenced with either normal (NORM) or low (LOW) muscle glycogen availability. We hypothesized that even under conditions of low glycogen availability, caffeine would increase maximal self-selected power output and thereby partially rescue the reduction in training intensity observed when individuals commence HIT with low glycogen availability.

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In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.

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Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

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Large integration of solar Photo Voltaic (PV) in distribution network has resulted in over-voltage problems. Several control techniques are developed to address over-voltage problem using Deterministic Load Flow (DLF). However, intermittent characteristics of PV generation require Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) to introduce variability in analysis that is ignored in DLF. The traditional PLF techniques are not suitable for distribution systems and suffer from several drawbacks such as computational burden (Monte Carlo, Conventional convolution), sensitive accuracy with the complexity of system (point estimation method), requirement of necessary linearization (multi-linear simulation) and convergence problem (Gram–Charlier expansion, Cornish Fisher expansion). In this research, Latin Hypercube Sampling with Cholesky Decomposition (LHS-CD) is used to quantify the over-voltage issues with and without the voltage control algorithm in the distribution network with active generation. LHS technique is verified with a test network and real system from an Australian distribution network service provider. Accuracy and computational burden of simulated results are also compared with Monte Carlo simulations.