A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt

This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks.

Effects of depressive symptoms on antecedents of lapses during a smoking cessation attempt: an ecological momentary assessment study

AIMS: To investigate pathways through which momentary negative affect and depressive symptoms affect risk of lapse during smoking cessation attempts. DESIGN: Ecological momentary assessment was carried out during 2 weeks after an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. A 3-month follow-up measured smoking frequency. SETTING: Data were collected via mobile devices in German-speaking Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 242 individuals (age 20-40, 67% men) reported 7112 observations. MEASUREMENTS: Online surveys assessed baseline depressive symptoms and nicotine dependence. Real-time data on negative affect, physical withdrawal symptoms, urge to smoke, abstinence-related self-efficacy and lapses. FINDINGS: A two-level structural equation model suggested that on the situational level, negative affect increased the urge to smoke and decreased self-efficacy (β = 0.20; β = -0.12, respectively), but had no direct effect on lapse risk. A higher urge to smoke (β = 0.09) and lower self-efficacy (β = -0.11) were confirmed as situational antecedents of lapses. Depressive symptoms at baseline were a strong predictor of a person's average negative affect (β = 0.35, all P < 0.001). However, the baseline characteristics influenced smoking frequency 3 months later only indirectly, through influences of average states on the number of lapses during the quit attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for nicotine dependence, higher depressive symptoms at baseline were associated strongly with a worse longer-term outcome. Negative affect experienced during the quit attempt was the only pathway through which the baseline depressive symptoms were associated with a reduced self-efficacy and increased urges to smoke, all leading to the increased probability of lapses.

Literary lapses /

Mode of access: Internet.

The bad results of good habits, and other lapses,

Mode of access: Internet.

Literary lapses,

Mode of access: Internet.

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100 000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100 000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding,'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-awareness of Prospective Memory Failure in Adults with Traumatic Brain Injury

The frequency of prospective memory failure in individuals with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) was investigated by comparison with a non-brain-injured control group. Self-awareness of prospective memory function was also assessed by comparing self-ratings with ratings by significant others. Study participants included 33 individuals with severe TBI and 29 non-brain-injured persons. Each participant nominated a close friend or relative who completed the informant's version of the questionnaire. Participants and their significant others both rated the participants' frequency of prospective memory lapses using the Comprehensive Assessment of Prospective Memory (CAPM). An independent groups design was adopted to compare the TBI and control groups. No significant difference was found between the TBI and control participants' self-ratings of frequency of prospective memory failure, but ratings by significant others were significantly different. The TBI group demonstrated less self-awareness (i.e. underestimated the frequency of prospective memory failure compared to significant others) than the control group.

El paisaje del área fuente cenozoica, evolución e implicaciones; correlación con el registro sedimentario de las cuencas

Erosion surfaces are the main geomorphological features of the Hesperian Massif. However, three other physiographic elements define the present state of the landscape. Such are big mountain blocks with polygonal borders building at great scale mountain chains, some more modest ridges following hercynian structural trends, and finally the strong incision of the fluvial net. On the other hand, paleoalterations and associated sediments are the only available ways for relief correlation and interpretation. It consists of a triple relationship giving good results when the regional stratigraphy is well known. Tectonic massifs, differential relief sand incisions are originated by geotectonic alpine disturbances during the Tertiary. The three events are consecutive in time with overlapping lapses which the prior and following element: differencial reliefs as a mesozoic heritage occur first, afterwards morphostructural blocks responding directly to the alpine deformation, and finally the fluvial incision as a delayed answer to the preceding morphostructural changes. The relationship relief sedimentation confirms widely this idea, since an association exists between a siderolitic Cretaceous-lower Paleogene and the differential reliefs, between arkoses from the upper Paleogene and the tectonic morphostructural blocks and between the Neogene Series Ocres and the terraces.

El perdó de l’ofés: la via adecuada per alleugerir les càrregues de la justícia? Estudi de la institució i de les alternatives per rendibilitzar els recursos de l’Administració de justícia

En aquesta recerca aportem les conclusions de la nostra investigació sobre la figura del perdó de l’ofès i la seva possible virtualitat com a mitjà per alleugerir l’Administració de Justícia. En primer lloc, analitzem la institució del perdó de l’ofès, en concret, la seva regulació en el nostre Codi penal, els seus antecedents històrics i aportem certes dades de Dret comparat que poden ajudar a l’estudi crític de la institució (1). En la segona part, estudiem els arguments a favor i en contra del perdó de l’ofès dins el sistema penal i ens pronunciem sobre la seva legitimitat com a mecanisme per rendibilitzar l’Administració de Justícia (2). En la tercera part, sobre la base de les conclusions anteriors, aportem una reflexió sobre les alternatives al perdó de l’ofès (3). Per últim, en la darrera part, formulem la nostra proposta final sobre els mecanismes per rendibilitzar els recursos de l’Administració de Justícia (4). Segons el nostre estudi, el perdó de l’ofès no és un bon mecanisme per alleugerir la feina de l’Administració de Justícia. En canvi, la reparació i la conciliació si poden operar com a substitutius de la pena en els supòsits de delictes de menor gravetat; en els processos penals per aquests delictes caldria introduir un intent obligatori de conciliació, com el del § 380 StPO alemany i, a més, convindria preveure en el Codi penal la facultat del jutge d’eliminar la responsabilitat penal en determinats supòsits de reparació de l’autor a la víctima del delicte.

El perdó de l’ofés: la via adequada per alleugerir les càrregues de la justícia? Estudi de la institució i de les alternatives per rendibilitzar els recursos de l’Administració de justícia

En aquesta recerca aportem les conclusions de la nostra investigació sobre la figura del perdó de l’ofès i la seva possible virtualitat com a mitjà per alleugerir l’Administració de Justícia. En primer lloc, analitzem la institució del perdó de l’ofès, en concret, la seva regulació en el nostre Codi penal, els seus antecedents històrics i aportem certes dades de Dret comparat que poden ajudar a l’estudi crític de la institució (1). En la segona part, estudiem els arguments a favor i en contra del perdó de l’ofès dins el sistema penal i ens pronunciem sobre la seva legitimitat com a mecanisme per rendibilitzar l’Administració de Justícia (2). En la tercera part, sobre la base de les conclusions anteriors, aportem una reflexió sobre les alternatives al perdó de l’ofès (3). Per últim, en la darrera part, formulem la nostra proposta final sobre els mecanismes per rendibilitzar els recursos de l’Administració de Justícia (4). Segons el nostre estudi, el perdó de l’ofès no és un bon mecanisme per alleugerir la feina de l’Administració de Justícia. En canvi, la reparació i la conciliació si poden operar com a substitutius de la pena en els supòsits de delictes de menor gravetat; en els processos penals per aquests delictes caldria introduir un intent obligatori de conciliació, com el del § 380 StPO alemany i, a més, convindria preveure en el Codi penal la facultat del jutge d’eliminar la responsabilitat penal en determinats supòsits de reparació de l’autor a la víctima del delicte.

Identification of factors associated with diagnostic error in primary care.

BACKGROUND Missed, delayed or incorrect diagnoses are considered to be diagnostic errors. The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology of a study to analyse cognitive aspects of the process by which primary care (PC) physicians diagnose dyspnoea. It examines the possible links between the use of heuristics, suboptimal cognitive acts and diagnostic errors, using Reason's taxonomy of human error (slips, lapses, mistakes and violations). The influence of situational factors (professional experience, perceived overwork and fatigue) is also analysed. METHODS Cohort study of new episodes of dyspnoea in patients receiving care from family physicians and residents at PC centres in Granada (Spain). With an initial expected diagnostic error rate of 20%, and a sampling error of 3%, 384 episodes of dyspnoea are calculated to be required. In addition to filling out the electronic medical record of the patients attended, each physician fills out 2 specially designed questionnaires about the diagnostic process performed in each case of dyspnoea. The first questionnaire includes questions on the physician's initial diagnostic impression, the 3 most likely diagnoses (in order of likelihood), and the diagnosis reached after the initial medical history and physical examination. It also includes items on the physicians' perceived overwork and fatigue during patient care. The second questionnaire records the confirmed diagnosis once it is reached. The complete diagnostic process is peer-reviewed to identify and classify the diagnostic errors. The possible use of heuristics of representativeness, availability, and anchoring and adjustment in each diagnostic process is also analysed. Each audit is reviewed with the physician responsible for the diagnostic process. Finally, logistic regression models are used to determine if there are differences in the diagnostic error variables based on the heuristics identified. DISCUSSION This work sets out a new approach to studying the diagnostic decision-making process in PC, taking advantage of new technologies which allow immediate recording of the decision-making process.

"Attès los dits diputats no eran sinó procuradors...": relacions entre els braços i la diputació del general durant la celebració de les Corts Catalanes de 1599

La nostra comunicació s'emmarca en la Catalunya deIs inicis del regnat de Felip II (III de Castella). Té per objecte la complexa situació que es produeix quan, amb motiu d'una convocatoria de Corts, la Diputació del General es troba frec a frec amb els tres braços als quals està legalment subordinada. La convivència forçada d'ambdues institucions en el mateix quadre polític, ni que sigui durant lapses de temps relativament curts, esdevé cada cop més problematica a mesura que avança el segle XVI.

Investigating Gaze of Children with ASD in Naturalistic Settings.

BACKGROUND: Visual behavior is known to be atypical in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Monitor-based eye-tracking studies have measured several of these atypicalities in individuals with Autism. While atypical behaviors are known to be accentuated during natural interactions, few studies have been made on gaze behavior in natural interactions. In this study we focused on i) whether the findings done in laboratory settings are also visible in a naturalistic interaction; ii) whether new atypical elements appear when studying visual behavior across the whole field of view. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ten children with ASD and ten typically developing children participated in a dyadic interaction with an experimenter administering items from the Early Social Communication Scale (ESCS). The children wore a novel head-mounted eye-tracker, measuring gaze direction and presence of faces across the child's field of view. The analysis of gaze episodes to faces revealed that children with ASD looked significantly less and for shorter lapses of time at the experimenter. The analysis of gaze patterns across the child's field of view revealed that children with ASD looked downwards and made more extensive use of their lateral field of view when exploring the environment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The data gathered in naturalistic settings confirm findings previously obtained only in monitor-based studies. Moreover, the study allowed to observe a generalized strategy of lateral gaze in children with ASD when they were looking at the objects in their environment.

Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.