全球变化不绿洲的演化趋势研究-以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例

本文以全球变化对绿洲水文循环影响为主线，分析了地处干旱区的绿洲在全球变化下的演变趋势。以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例，探讨了其水量平衡、非灌溉土壤积盐特性、隐域性盐化草甸植被NPP，以及绿洲土地利用／覆被变化对全球变化的响应。从不同时间尺度上分析了全球变化的两大驱动因子，气候变化和人类活动对绿洲演化的影响。运用系统动力学模型模拟了未来30年绿洲土地覆被变化在上述两驱动因子的作用下的动态演变过程。其主要结论如下： 1、从生态学的角度，绿洲可定义为：存在于干旱、半干旱区的依赖于水源而生存的隐域性绿色景观．地质时期，绿洲的演化由气候等自然因子起决定作用;人类历史时期，在气候等自然因素的大背景下，人类活动对绿洲演变的作用越来越大;近百年来，绿洲的演变则主要受人为活动干扰。 2、在不改变绿洲现有土地利用格局和水资源利用率的情况下，当年平均气温升高2.5℃，无论降水增加200%或不增加，绿洲的水资源量都将出现负平衡，全球变化将使绿洲面临更为严重的水资源短缺。 3、绿洲自然土壤0-5 0cm土层积盐速率对全球变化的响应程度依地下水埋深的大小而有所差异。地下水埋深较小，积盐速率随温度的升高增加较明显;地下水埋深较大时，积盐速率变化不明显。当地下水埋深>2m，地表积盐速率不再随气候变化而变化．地下水埋深h=2m为渭干河绿洲非灌溉土壤地表积盐速率对全球变化响应的临界深度。 4、根据绿洲地下水埋深与植被NPP的相关关系，推导出了估算盐化草甸植被NPP的模型： NPP=-O. 991+0. 0005Eo (h-0. 25h^2+0. 021h^3) +5. 276EXP (-0. 651h) 并分别估算了当前及全球变化下的NPP值。盐化草甸植被NPP随地下水埋深的增加呈指数下降。全球变化下，地下水埋深较大时，NPP的增加较明显;地下水埋深较小时，NPP的增加不明显。 5、灵敏度分析表明：NPP对地下水埋深h的变化比对地下水矿化度变化为更敏感。h=3. 3m为渭干河绿洲盐化草甸植被的胁迫深度。 6、系统动力学模型模拟表明，渭干河绿洲耕地面积的增减受水资源利用率和人口数量变化的制约。全球变化下，由于水文状况的改变，未来30年将导致绿洲耕地面积增幅下降4. 5-5.1%。绿洲水文状况和人口数量变化是决定土地利用格局变化的关键驱动因素。 7、绿洲灌溉土地的优化模式为，耕地：林地：改良草地=70: 23:7;种植业（耕地）内部的比例为，粮食作物：经济作物：人工草地=46: 31: 23。

An Integrated Study on the Holocene Aquifer and the Water Resource Potential of Karamana River Basin, Southern Kerala, India

Water constitutes the basic resource for life. Management of coastal aquifers, which are the important sources of freshwater that feed the rapid economic growth of the region is facing increasing challenges. A large portion of the global population inhabits the coastal and adjoining areas leading to a high demand for water both surface and ground water resources of coastal tracts. With increasing population this puts significant stress on water resources of many of the coastal tracts of the world. Several recent studies have indicated that coastal aquifers of Cenozoic age are globally under threat due to several reasons. Climate change is expected to affect the freshwater resources of coastal aquifers, which in turn will affect half of the global population residing in coastal areas. Sea-level rise will induce landward migration of the freshwater-saltwater transition zone, i.e., seawater or saltwater intrusion, jeopardizing freshwater availability. In order to facilitate the management of fresh coastal groundwater resources, a comprehensive understanding of the SLR-SWI relationship is crucial.

Pattern-based analysis of EAI languages : the case of the business modelling language

Enterprise Application Integration (EAI) is a challenging area that is attracting growing attention from the software industry and the research community. A landscape of languages and techniques for EAI has emerged and is continuously being enriched with new proposals from different software vendors and coalitions. However, little or no effort has been dedicated to systematically evaluate and compare these languages and techniques. The work reported in this paper is a first step in this direction. It presents an in-depth analysis of a language, namely the Business Modeling Language, specifically developed for EAI. The framework used for this analysis is based on a number of workflow and communication patterns. This framework provides a basis for evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of EAI languages with respect to recurrent problems and situations.

What lies beneath? : The pattern and abundance of the subterranean tuber bank of the invasive liana cat’s claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae)

Cat’s claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry (Bignoniaceae) is a major environmental weed of riparian areas, rainforest communities and remnant natural vegetation in coastal Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. In densely infested areas, it smothers standing vegetation, including large trees, and causes canopy collapse. Quantitative data on the ecology of this invasive vine are generally lacking. The present study examines the underground tuber traits of M. unguis-cati and explores their links with aboveground parameters at five infested sites spanning both riparian and inland vegetation. Tubers were abundant in terms of density (~1000 per m2), although small in size and low in level of interconnectivity. M. unguis-cati also exhibits multiple stems per plant. Of all traits screened, the link between stand (stem density) and tuber density was the most significant and yielded a promising bivariate relationship for the purposes of estimation, prediction and management of what lies beneath the soil surface of a given M. unguis-cati infestation site. The study also suggests that new recruitment is primarily from seeds, not from vegetative propagation as previously thought. The results highlight the need for future biological-control efforts to focus on introducing specialist seed- and pod-feeding insects to reduce seed-output.

BioPatML : pattern sharing for the genomic sciences

Computational biology increasingly demands the sharing of sophisticated data and annotations between research groups. Web 2.0 style sharing and publication requires that biological systems be described in well-defined, yet flexible and extensible formats which enhance exchange and re-use. In contrast to many of the standards for exchange in the genomic sciences, descriptions of biological sequences show a great diversity in format and function, impeding the definition and exchange of sequence patterns. In this presentation, we introduce BioPatML, an XML-based pattern description language that supports a wide range of patterns and allows the construction of complex, hierarchically structured patterns and pattern libraries. BioPatML unifies the diversity of current pattern description languages and fills a gap in the set of XML-based description languages for biological systems. We discuss the structure and elements of the language, and demonstrate its advantages on a series of applications, showing lightweight integration between the BioPatML parser and search engine, and the SilverGene genome browser. We conclude by describing our site to enable large scale pattern sharing, and our efforts to seed this repository.

Interpersonal pattern dynamics and adaptive behavior in multiagent neurobiological systems : conceptual model and data

Ecological dynamics characterizes adaptive behavior as an emergent, self-organizing property of interpersonal interactions in complex social systems. The authors conceptualize and investigate constraints on dynamics of decisions and actions in the multiagent system of team sports. They studied coadaptive interpersonal dynamics in rugby union to model potential control parameter and collective variable relations in attacker–defender dyads. A videogrammetry analysis revealed how some agents generated fluctuations by adapting displacement velocity to create phase transitions and destabilize dyadic subsystems near the try line. Agent interpersonal dynamics exhibited characteristics of chaotic attractors and informational constraints of rugby union boxed dyadic systems into a low dimensional attractor. Data suggests that decisions and actions of agents in sports teams may be characterized as emergent, self-organizing properties, governed by laws of dynamical systems at the ecological scale. Further research needs to generalize this conceptual model of adaptive behavior in performance to other multiagent populations.

Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality?

In the region of self-organized criticality (SOC) interdependency between multi-agent system components exists and slight changes in near-neighbor interactions can break the balance of equally poised options leading to transitions in system order. In this region, frequency of events of differing magnitudes exhibits a power law distribution. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether a power law distribution characterized attacker-defender interactions in team sports. For this purpose we observed attacker and defender in a dyadic sub-phase of rugby union near the try line. Videogrammetry was used to capture players’ motion over time as player locations were digitized. Power laws were calculated for the rate of change of players’ relative position. Data revealed that three emergent patterns from dyadic system interactions (i.e., try; unsuccessful tackle; effective tackle) displayed a power law distribution. Results suggested that pattern forming dynamics dyads in rugby union exhibited SOC. It was concluded that rugby union dyads evolve in SOC regions suggesting that players’ decisions and actions are governed by local interactions rules.