Tree Islands in the Shark Slough Landscape: Interactions of Vegetation, Hydrology, and Soils

Executive Summary: This report presents what we have learned about tree islands of Shark Slough and adjacent marshes of Everglades National Park (ENP), based on ecological studies carried out in these wetlands during the period 2000-2003. The tree islands of Shark Slough share many features with tree islands elsewhere in the Everglades. Their current composition and community structure is determined to a large extent by recent hydrology, as well as by disturbances (fire, freezes, hurricanes, man). Tree islands have historical, cultural, and biological values that are recognized by nearly all parties to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). Maintaining and/or restoring the health of tree islands are major objectives of CERP. Consequently, there is a need within CERP for tools to assess the health of tree islands, and to relate these measures to the hydrologic regime to which they are exposed.

Turning conflict into coexistence: cross-cutting ties and institutions in the agro-pastoral borderlands of Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

The Maasai/Kikuyu agro-pastoral borderlands of Maiella and Enoosupukia, located in the hinterlands of Lake Naivasha’s agro-industrial hub, are particularly notorious in the history of ethnicised violence in the Kenya’s Rift Valley. In October 1993, an organised assault perpetrated by hundreds of Maasai vigilantes, with the assistance of game wardens and administration police, killed more than 20 farmers of Kikuyu descent. Consequently, thousands of migrant farmers were violently evicted from Enoosupukia at the instigation of leading local politicians. Nowadays, however, intercommunity relations are surprisingly peaceful and the cooperative use of natural resources is the rule rather than the exception. There seems to be a form of reorganization. Violence seems to be contained and the local economy has since recovered. This does not mean that there is no conflict, but people seem to have the facility to solve them peacefully. How did formerly violent conflicts develop into peaceful relations? How did competition turn into cooperation, facilitating changing land use? This dissertation explores the value of cross-cutting ties and local institutions in peaceful relationships and the non-violent resolution of conflicts across previously violently contested community boundaries. It mainly relies on ethnographic data collected between 2014 and 2015. The discussion therefore builds on several theoretical approaches in anthropology and the social sciences – that is, violent conflicts, cross-cutting ties and conflicting loyalties, joking relationships, peace and nonviolence, and institutions, in order to understand shared spaces that are experiencing fairly rapid social and economic changes, and characterised by conflict and coexistence. In the researched communities, cross-cutting ties and the split allegiances associated with them result from intermarriages, land transactions, trade, and friendship. By institutions, I refer to local peace committees, an attempt to standardise an aspect of customary law, and Nyumba Kumi, a strategy of anchoring community policing at the household level. In 2010, the state “implanted” these grassroots-level institutions and conferred on them the rights to handle specific conflicts and to prevent crime. I argue that the studied groups utilise diverse networks of relationships as adaptive responses to landlessness, poverty, and socio-political dynamics at the local level. Material and non-material exchanges and transfers accompany these social and economic ties and networks. In addition to being instrumental in nurturing a cohesive social fabric, I argue that such alliances could be thought of as strategies of appropriation of resources in the frontiers – areas that are considered to have immense agricultural potential and to be conducive to economic enterprise. Consequently, these areas are continuously changed and shaped through immigration, population growth, and agricultural intensification. However, cross-cutting ties and intergroup alliances may not necessarily prevent the occurrence or escalation of conflicts. Nevertheless, disputes and conflicts, which form part of the social order in the studied area, create the opportunities for locally contextualised systems of peace and non-violence that inculcate the values of cooperation, coexistence, and restraint from violence. Although the neo-traditional institutions (local peace committees and Nyumba Kumi) face massive complexities and lack the capacity to handle serious conflicts, their application of informal constraints in dispute resolution provides room for some optimism. Notably, the formation of ties and alliances between the studied groups, and the use of local norms and values to resolve disputes, are not new phenomena – they are reminiscent of historical patterns. Their persistence, particularly in the context of Kenya, indicates a form of historical continuity, which remains rather “undisturbed” despite the prevalence of ethnicised political economies. Indeed, the formation of alliances, which are driven by mutual pursuit of commodities (livestock, rental land, and agricultural produce), markets, and diversification, tends to override other identities. While the major thrust of social science literature in East Africa has focused on the search for root causes of violence, very little has been said about the conditions and practices of cooperation and non-violent conflict resolution. In addition, situations where prior violence turned into peaceful interaction have attracted little attention, though the analysis of such transitional phases holds the promise of contributing to applicable knowledge on conflict resolution. This study is part of a larger multidisciplinary project, “Resilience in East African Landscapes” (REAL), which is a Marie Curie Actions Innovative Training Networks (ITN) project. The principal focus of this multidisciplinary project is to study past, present, and future thresholds and sustainable trajectories in human-landscape interactions in East Africa over the last millennia. While other individual projects focus on long-term ecosystem dynamics and societal interactions, my project examines human-landscape interactions in the present and the very recent past (i.e. the period in which events and processes were witnessed or can still be recalled by today’s population). The transition from conflict to coexistence and from competition to cooperative use of previously violently contested land resources is understood here as enhancing adaptation in the face of social-political, economic, environmental, and climatic changes. This dissertation is therefore a contribution to new modes of resilience in human-landscape interactions after a collapse situation.

A discrete forest in a continuous landscape : investigating interactions between natural resource management and sustainable development

Summary Forests are key ecosystems of the earth and associated with a large range of functions. Many of these functions are beneficial to humans and are referred to as ecosystem services. Sustainable development requires that all relevant ecosystem services are quantified, managed and monitored equally. Natural resource management therefore targets the services associated with ecosystems. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the spatial and temporal domains of relevant services do not correspond to a discrete forest ecosystem. As a consequence, the services are not quantified, managed and monitored in an equal and sustainable manner. The thesis aims were therefore to test this hypothesis, establish an improved conceptual approach and provide spatial applications for the relevant land cover and structure variables. The study was carried out in western Switzerland and based primarily on data from a countrywide landscape inventory. This inventory is part of the third Swiss national forest inventory and assesses continuous landscape variables based on a regular sampling of true colour aerial imagery. In addition, land cover variables were derived from Landsat 5 TM passive sensor data and land structure variables from active sensor data from a small footprint laserscanning system. The results confirmed the main hypothesis, as relevant services did not scale well with the forest ecosystem. Instead, a new conceptual approach for sustainable management of natural resources was described. This concept quantifies the services as a continuous function of the landscape, rather than a discrete function of the forest ecosystem. The explanatory landscape variables are therefore called continuous fields and the forest becomes a dependent and function-driven management unit. Continuous field mapping methods were established for land cover and structure variables. In conclusion, the discrete forest ecosystem is an adequate planning and management unit. However, monitoring the state of and trends in sustainability of services requires them to be quantified as a continuous function of the landscape. Sustainable natural resource management iteratively combines the ecosystem and gradient approaches. Résumé Les forêts sont des écosystèmes-clés de la terre et on leur attribue un grand nombre de fonctions. Beaucoup de ces fonctions sont bénéfiques pour l'homme et sont nommées services écosystémiques. Le développement durable exige que ces services écosystémiques soient tous quantifiés, gérés et surveillés de façon égale. La gestion des ressources naturelles a donc pour cible les services attribués aux écosystèmes. L'hypothèse principale de cette thèse est que les domaines spatiaux et temporels des services attribués à la forêt ne correspondent pas à un écosystème discret. Par conséquent, les services ne sont pas quantifiés, aménagés et surveillés d'une manière équivalente et durable. Les buts de la thèse étaient de tester cette hypothèse, d'établir une nouvelle approche conceptuelle de la gestion des ressources naturelles et de préparer des applications spatiales pour les variables paysagères et structurelles appropriées. L'étude a été menée en Suisse occidentale principalement sur la base d'un inventaire de paysage à l'échelon national. Cet inventaire fait partie du troisième inventaire forestier national suisse et mesure de façon continue des variables paysagères sur la base d'un échantillonnage régulier sur des photos aériennes couleur. En outre, des variables de couverture ? terrestre ont été dérivées des données d'un senseur passif Landsat 5 TM, ainsi que des variables structurelles, dérivées du laserscanning, un senseur actif. Les résultats confirment l'hypothèse principale, car l'échelle des services ne correspond pas à celle de l'écosystème forestier. Au lieu de cela, une nouvelle approche a été élaborée pour la gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Ce concept représente les services comme une fonction continue du paysage, plutôt qu'une fonction discrète de l'écosystème forestier. En conséquence, les variables explicatives de paysage sont dénommées continuous fields et la forêt devient une entité dépendante, définie par la fonction principale du paysage. Des méthodes correspondantes pour la couverture terrestre et la structure ont été élaborées. En conclusion, l'écosystème forestier discret est une unité adéquate pour la planification et la gestion. En revanche, la surveillance de la durabilité de l'état et de son évolution exige que les services soient quantifiés comme fonction continue du paysage. La gestion durable des ressources naturelles joint donc l'approche écosystémique avec celle du gradient de manière itérative.

Landscape Systems and Human Land-Use Interactions in Mediterranean Highlands and Littoral Plains during the Late Holocene: Integrated Analysis from the InterAmbAr Project (North-Eastern Catalonia).

The main goal of the InterAmbAr reseach project is to analyze the relationships between landscape systems and human land-use strategies on mountains and littoral plains from a long-term perspective. The study adopts a high resolution analysis of small-scale study areas located in the Mediterranean region of north-eastern Catalonia. The study areas are distributed along an altitudinal transect from the high mountain (above 2000m a.s.l.) to the littoral plain of Empordà (Fig. 1). High resolution interdisciplinary research has been carried out from 2010, based on the integration of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data. The micro-scale approach is used to understand human-environmental relationships. It allows better understanding of the local-regional nature of environmental changes and the synergies between catchment-based systems, hydro-sedimentary regimes, human mobility, land-uses, human environments, demography, etc.

Contribution of Non-Covalent Interactions and Electronic Effects on the Conformational Landscape and Tautomeric Equilibria of Molecules and Molecular Complexes: Structural and Dynamical Data from Rotational Spectroscopy

This thesis concerns the study of complex conformational surfaces and tautomeric equilibria of molecules and molecular complexes by quantum chemical methods and rotational spectroscopy techniques. In particular, the focus of this research is on the effects of substitution and noncovalent interactions in determining the energies and geometries of different conformers, tautomers or molecular complexes. The Free-Jet Absorption Millimeter Wave spectroscopy and the Pulsed-Jet Fourier Transform Microwave spectroscopy have been applied to perform these studies and the obtained results showcase the suitability of these techniques for the study of conformational surfaces and intermolecular interactions. The series of investigations of selected medium-size molecules and complexes have shown how different instrumental setups can be used to obtain a variety of results on molecular properties. The systems studied, include molecules of biological interest such as anethole and molecules of astrophysical interest such as N-methylaminoethanol. Moreover halogenation effects have been investigated on halogen substituted tautomeric systems (5-chlorohydroxypyridine and 6-chlorohydroxypyridine), where it has shown that the position of the inserted halogen atom affects the prototropic equilibrium. As for fluorination effects, interesting results have been achieved investigating some small complexes where a molecule of water is used as a probe to reveal the changes on the electrostatic potential of different fluorinated compounds: 2-fluoropyridine, 3-fluoropyridine and penta-fluoropyridine. While in the case of the molecular complex between water and 2-fluoropyridine and 3-fluoropyridine the geometry of the complex with one water molecule is analogous to that of pyridine with the water molecule linked to the pyridine nitrogen, the case of pentafluoropyridine reveals the effect of perfluorination and the water oxygen points towards the positive center of the pyridine ring. Additional molecular adducts with a molecule of water have been analyzed (benzylamine-water and acrylic acid-water) in order to reveal the stabilizing driving forces that characterize these complexes.

Interactions between landcover pattern and geospatial processing methods:effects on landscape metrics and classification accuracy

Remote sensing data is routinely used in ecology to investigate the relationship between landscape pattern as characterised by land use and land cover maps, and ecological processes. Multiple factors related to the representation of geographic phenomenon have been shown to affect characterisation of landscape pattern resulting in spatial uncertainty. This study investigated the effect of the interaction between landscape spatial pattern and geospatial processing methods statistically; unlike most papers which consider the effect of each factor in isolation only. This is important since data used to calculate landscape metrics typically undergo a series of data abstraction processing tasks and are rarely performed in isolation. The geospatial processing methods tested were the aggregation method and the choice of pixel size used to aggregate data. These were compared to two components of landscape pattern, spatial heterogeneity and the proportion of landcover class area. The interactions and their effect on the final landcover map were described using landscape metrics to measure landscape pattern and classification accuracy (response variables). All landscape metrics and classification accuracy were shown to be affected by both landscape pattern and by processing methods. Large variability in the response of those variables and interactions between the explanatory variables were observed. However, even though interactions occurred, this only affected the magnitude of the difference in landscape metric values. Thus, provided that the same processing methods are used, landscapes should retain their ranking when their landscape metrics are compared. For example, highly fragmented landscapes will always have larger values for the landscape metric "number of patches" than less fragmented landscapes. But the magnitude of difference between the landscapes may change and therefore absolute values of landscape metrics may need to be interpreted with caution. The explanatory variables which had the largest effects were spatial heterogeneity and pixel size. These explanatory variables tended to result in large main effects and large interactions. The high variability in the response variables and the interaction of the explanatory variables indicate it would be difficult to make generalisations about the impact of processing on landscape pattern as only two processing methods were tested and it is likely that untested processing methods will potentially result in even greater spatial uncertainty. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Ant-caterpillar Antagonism At The Community Level: Interhabitat Variation Of Tritrophic Interactions In A Neotropical Savanna.

Ant foraging on foliage can substantially affect how phytophagous insects use host plants and represents a high predation risk for caterpillars, which are important folivores. Ant-plant-herbivore interactions are especially pervasive in cerrado savanna due to continuous ant visitation to liquid food sources on foliage (extrafloral nectaries, insect honeydew). While searching for liquid rewards on plants, aggressive ants frequently attack or kill insect herbivores, decreasing their numbers. Because ants vary in diet and aggressiveness, their effect on herbivores also varies. Additionally, the differential occurrence of ant attractants (plant and insect exudates) on foliage produces variable levels of ant foraging within local floras and among localities. Here, we investigate how variation of ant communities and of traits among host plant species (presence or absence of ant attractants) can change the effect of carnivores (predatory ants) on herbivore communities (caterpillars) in a cerrado savanna landscape. We sampled caterpillars and foliage-foraging ants in four cerrado localities (70-460 km apart). We found that: (i) caterpillar infestation was negatively related with ant visitation to plants; (ii) this relationship depended on local ant abundance and species composition, and on local preference by ants for plants with liquid attractants; (iii) this was not related to local plant richness or plant size; (iv) the relationship between the presence of ant attractants and caterpillar abundance varied among sites from negative to neutral; and (v) caterpillars feeding on plants with ant attractants are more resistant to ant predation than those feeding on plants lacking attractants. Liquid food on foliage mediates host plant quality for lepidopterans by promoting generalized ant-caterpillar antagonism. Our study in cerrado shows that the negative effects of generalist predatory ants on herbivores are detectable at a community level, affecting patterns of abundance and host plant use by lepidopterans. The magnitude of ant-induced effects on caterpillar occurrence across the cerrado landscape may depend on how ants use plants locally and how they respond to liquid food on plants at different habitats. This study enhances the relevance of plant-ant and ant-herbivore interactions in cerrado and highlights the importance of a tritrophic perspective in this ant-rich environment.

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Update of the FANTOM web resource: from mammalian transcriptional landscape to its dynamic regulation.

The international Functional Annotation Of the Mammalian Genomes 4 (FANTOM4) research collaboration set out to better understand the transcriptional network that regulates macrophage differentiation and to uncover novel components of the transcriptome employing a series of high-throughput experiments. The primary and unique technique is cap analysis of gene expression (CAGE), sequencing mRNA 5'-ends with a second-generation sequencer to quantify promoter activities even in the absence of gene annotation. Additional genome-wide experiments complement the setup including short RNA sequencing, microarray gene expression profiling on large-scale perturbation experiments and ChIP-chip for epigenetic marks and transcription factors. All the experiments are performed in a differentiation time course of the THP-1 human leukemic cell line. Furthermore, we performed a large-scale mammalian two-hybrid (M2H) assay between transcription factors and monitored their expression profile across human and mouse tissues with qRT-PCR to address combinatorial effects of regulation by transcription factors. These interdependent data have been analyzed individually and in combination with each other and are published in related but distinct papers. We provide all data together with systematic annotation in an integrated view as resource for the scientific community (http://fantom.gsc.riken.jp/4/). Additionally, we assembled a rich set of derived analysis results including published predicted and validated regulatory interactions. Here we introduce the resource and its update after the initial release.

Three Continents, one Language: Studying English in a Portuguese Landscape (Brazil, Cape Verde and Portugal)

Unlike other languages, English has spread to all continents and become a truly global language, a process observable in countries, like Brazil, Cape Verde, and Portugal, located in three different continents, and sharing a common official language: Portuguese. This relatively recent development has contributed to the wide exposure to English and the growing influence of the language in their societies, being used with lingua franca communicative purposes, which raises pedagogical issues. Our aim is to map the exposure and use of English as a Lingua Franca in these Portuguese speaking countries through a comparative study of the results from three case studies (Berto 2009, Cavalheiro 2008 and Nunes 2010). By taking into consideration the findings from questionnaires answered by students and teachers of English, it compares and contrasts the respondents’ opinions on the profile of English teachers — native vs. non-native —, the varieties of English to be taught, and the language teaching resources available. In addition, it explores the learners’ interests, motives and purposes in relation to English and the potential communicative interactions between all speakers, so as to better understand ELF in English language education, and how these factors affect or should affect pedagogical practices in a Portuguese environment.

Damage spreading transition in glasses: A probe for the ruggedness of the configurational landscape

We consider damage spreading transitions in the framework of mode-coupling theory. This theory describes relaxation processes in glasses in the mean-field approximation which are known to be characterized by the presence of an exponentially large number of metastable states. For systems evolving under identical but arbitrarily correlated noises, we demonstrate that there exists a critical temperature T0 which separates two different dynamical regimes depending on whether damage spreads or not in the asymptotic long-time limit. This transition exists for generic noise correlations such that the zero damage solution is stable at high temperatures, being minimal for maximal noise correlations. Although this dynamical transition depends on the type of noise correlations, we show that the asymptotic damage has the good properties of a dynamical order parameter, such as (i) independence of the initial damage; (ii) independence of the class of initial condition; and (iii) stability of the transition in the presence of asymmetric interactions which violate detailed balance. For maximally correlated noises we suggest that damage spreading occurs due to the presence of a divergent number of saddle points (as well as metastable states) in the thermodynamic limit consequence of the ruggedness of the free-energy landscape which characterizes the glassy state. These results are then compared to extensive numerical simulations of a mean-field glass model (the Bernasconi model) with Monte Carlo heat-bath dynamics. The freedom of choosing arbitrary noise correlations for Langevin dynamics makes damage spreading an interesting tool to probe the ruggedness of the configurational landscape.

Management zones in agriculture acording to the soil and landscape variables

The study of spatial variability of soil and plants attributes, or precision agriculture, a technique that aims the rational use of natural resources, is expanding commercially in Brazil. Nevertheless, there is a lack of mathematical analysis that supports the correlation of these independent variables and their interactions with the productivity, identifying scientific standards technologically applicable. The aim of this study was to identify patterns of soil variability according to the eleven physical and seven chemical indicators in an agricultural area. It was used two multivariate techniques: the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and the principal component analysis (PCA). According to the HCA, the area was divided into five management zones: zone 1 with 2.87ha, zone 2 with 0.8ha, zone 3 with 1.84ha, zone 4 with 1.33ha and zone 5 with 2.76ha. By the PCA, it was identified the most important variables within each zone: V% for the zone 1, CTC in the zone 2, levels of H+Al in the zone 4 and sand content and altitude in the zone 5. The zone 3 was classified as an intermediate zone with characteristics of all others. According to the results it is concluded that it is possible to separate into groups (management zones) samples with the same patterns of variability by the multivariate statistical techniques.

Plant-Herbivore Interaction in a Fragmented Landscape: Local Adaptation and Inbreeding

Reciprocal selection between interacting species is a major driver of biodiversity at both the genetic and the species level. This reciprocal selection, or coevolution, has led to the diversification of two highly diverse and abundant groups of organisms, flowering plants and their insect herbivores. In heterogeneous environments, the outcome of coevolved species interactions is influenced by the surrounding community and/or the abiotic environment. The process of adaptation allows species to adapt to their local conditions and to local populations of interacting species. However, adaptation can be disrupted or slowed down by an absence of genetic variation or by increased inbreeding, together with the following inbreeding depression, both of which are common in small and isolated populations that occur in fragmented environments. I studied the interaction between a long-lived plant Vincetoxicum hirundinaria and its specialist herbivore Abrostola asclepiadis in the southwestern archipelago of Finland. I focused on mutual local adaptation of plants and herbivores, which is a demonstration of reciprocal selection between species, a prerequisite for coevolution. I then proceeded to investigate the processes that could potentially hamper local adaptation, or species interaction in general, when the population size is small. I did this by examining how inbreeding of both plants and herbivores affects traits that are important for interaction, as well as among-population variation in the effects of inbreeding. In addition to bi-parental inbreeding, in plants inbreeding can arise from self-fertilization which has important implications for mating system evolution. I found that local adaptation of the plant to its herbivores varied among populations. Local adaptation of the herbivore varied among populations and years, being weaker in populations that were most connected. Inbreeding caused inbreeding depression in both plants and herbivores. In some populations inbreeding depression in herbivore biomass was stronger in herbivores feeding on inbred plants than in those feeding on outbred ones. For plants it was the other way around: inbreeding depression in anti-herbivore resistance decreased when the herbivores were inbred. Underlying some of the among-population variation in the effects of inbreeding is variation in plant phenolic compounds. However, variation in the modification of phenolic compounds in the digestive tract of the herbivore did not explain the inbreeding depression in herbivore biomass. Finally, adult herbivores had a preference for outbred host plants for egg deposition, and herbivore inbreeding had a positive effect on egg survival when the eggs were exposed to predators and parasitoids. These results suggest that plants and herbivores indeed exert reciprocal selection, as demonstrated by the significant local adaptation of V. hirundinaria and A. asclepiadis to one another. The most significant cause of disruption of the local adaptation of herbivore populations was population connectivity, and thus probably gene flow. In plants local adaptation tended to increase with increasing genetic variation. Whether or not inbreeding depression occurred varied according to the life-history stage of the herbivore and/or the plant trait in question. In addition, the effects of inbreeding strongly depended on the population. Taken together, inbreeding modified plant-herbivore interactions at several different levels, and can thus affect the strength of reciprocal selection between species. Thus inbreeding has the potential to affect the outcome of coevolution.

Développement d’un modèle centré sur l’individu des déplacements du caribou, du loup et de l’orignal, et de leurs interactions, en forêt boréale aménagée

Le caribou forestier est une espèce menacée au Canada, la principale hypothèse au déclin des populations étant l’intensification de la prédation provoquée par les perturbations anthropiques du paysage. Afin de faire face à cette situation, il est nécessaire d’étudier et comprendre l’impact de l’environnement sur les interactions prédateur-proies entre le caribou et le loup, ainsi qu’avec l’orignal, qui est sa principale proie alternative. Pour cela, cette thèse présente la conception d’un modèle centré sur l’individu des déplacements de ces trois espèces en fonction de leur environnement, dont résulteront les interactions prédateur-proies. Afin de permettre l’application de ce modèle sur de longues périodes, et donc pour un environnement changeant, une méthodologie a été développée, qui s’articule atour de deux aspects principaux. Tout d’abord, la notion de niveaux d’émergence est introduite, permettant d’ordonner les comportements observables du système selon leurs interdépendances, afin de choisir comme trait du modèle un com- portement correspondant au domaine d’applicabilité visé. Ordonner les comportements selon leurs niveaux d’émergence permet également d’identifier la redondance entre les patrons, qui peut être à l’origine d’un phénomène de sur-apprentissage lorsqu’ils sont utilisés lors de la calibration. Dans un second temps, un nouveau protocole pour la calibration et la validation du ou des traits choisis à l’aide des niveaux d’émergence, nommé réplication de système basé sur l’individu (Individual Based System Replication - IBSRtion) est également présenté. Ce protocole met l’emphase sur la modélisation directe, contrairement au principal protocole existant, la modélisation orientée patrons (Pattern Oriented Modelling - POM), et permet une approche empirique en générant artificiellement des données non disponibles ou ne pouvant être récoltées par des études de terrains. IBSRtion a également l’avantage de pouvoir être intégrée dans POM, afin de contribuer à la création d’une méthodologie universelle pour la conception de modèles centrés sur l’individu. Le processus de conception de ce modèle aura entre autre permis de faire une synthèse des connaissances et d’identifier certaines lacunes. Une étude visant à palier le manque de connaissances satisfaisantes sur les réponses comportementales à court-terme des proies face au risque de prédation a notamment permis d’observer que celles-ci sont une combinaison de comportements chroniques et éphémères, et que les mécanismes qui en sont à l’origine sont complexes et non-linéaires. Le résultat de ce travail est un modèle complexe utilisant de nombreux sous-modèles, et calibré de façon empirique, applicable à une grande variété d’environnements. Ce modèle a permis de tester l’impact de l’enfeuillement sur les relations prédateur-proies. Des simulations ont été effectuées pour différentes quantités d’enfeuillement, suivant deux configurations spatiales différentes. Les résultats de simulation suggèrent que des plans d’aménagement considérant également l’habitat de l’orignal pourraient être bénéfiques pour le caribou forestier, car ils permettraient d’améliorer la ségrégation spatiale entre les deux espèces, et donc entre le caribou et le loup. En le couplant avec un module de naissances et de morts naturelles ainsi qu’un modèle d’évolution du paysage, ce modèle permettra par la suite d’évaluer l’impact de plans d’aménagement forestier sur la viabilité des populations de caribou forestier.