Tropic landfall; the port of Honolulu,

"First edition."

Landfall

Landfall considers the arbitrariness of our attachments to both people and places, while at the same time marveling at the inevitability and necessity of those attachments. The importance of place in these poems, most prominently that of southern Louisiana, is pervasive, and the insistent description of landscape becomes inextricable from an interrogation of personal and familial relationships. The power of such bonds seems to defy any satisfactory explanation, but by drawing on personal narrative as well as on the natural world, these poems begin, cautiously and in fragments, to approach and confront that power.

Targeted observations of a polar low in the Norwegian sea

A developing polar low is targeted with dropsonde observations to improve the forecast of its landfall. Accurately forecasting a polar low's strength and location remains a challenge; polar lows form over the ocean in poorly observed regions, therefore initial condition errors may contribute significantly to forecast error. The targeted polar low formed in the Norwegian Sea on 3 March 2008, during the Norwegian IPY-THORPEX field campaign. Two flights, six hours apart, released dense networks of dropsondes into a sensitive region covering the polar low and Arctic front to its west. The impact of the targeted observations is assessed using the limited-area Met Office Unified Model and three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme. Forecasts were verified using ECMWF analysis data, which show good agreement with both dropsonde data from a flight through the mature polar low, and 10 m QuikSCAT winds. The impact of the targeted data moved southwards with the polar low as it developed and then hit the Norwegian coast after 24 hours. The results show that the forecast of the polar low is sensitive to the initial conditions; targeted observations from the first flight did not improve the forecast, but those from the second flight clearly improved the forecast polar low position and intensity. However, caution should be applied to attributing the forecast improvement to the assimilation of the targeted observations from a single case-study, especially in this case as the forecast improvement is moderate relative to the spread from an operational ensemble forecast

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Efeito da aplicação de biocarvão, cama de frango e formulado NPK no estado nutricional de laranjeira em Terra Mulata

Growing in orange on Terra Mulata has been submitted nutrient limitation requiring correction in agricultural areas. The application of biochar associated with another source of nutrients can be a viable alternative to increase the efficiency of fertilizers and reduce losses in the areas. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of biochar, poultry litter and NPK in the nutritional status of orange trees grown in an Oxisol with anthropogenic A horizon (Terra Mulata). The study was conducted in a rural property landfall in Manacapuru (AM) in a randomized block design with eight treatments using biochar, poultry litter and NPK (4-14-8) applied in isolation and associates. To review two samples were taken at different periods of sheets to determine the nutritional status. Fertilizers applied did not increase the efficiency in the availability of contents of N, P, Fe and Zn, being the latter below the range of suitable content. As for the K, compost chicken manure and their combinations increased their availability, and the highest levels of Mg were found in the control treatment.

Dynamik und Klimatologie von diabatischen Rossby-Wellen

Der Wintersturm Lothar zog am 26. Dezember 1999 über Europa und richtete in Frankreich, in Deutschland, in der Schweiz und in Österreich ungewöhnlich hohe Schäden an. Lothar entstand aus einer diabatischen Rossby Welle (DRW) und erreichte erst wenige Stunden vor dem europäischen Kontinent Orkanstärke. DRWs weisen ein interessantes atmosphärisches Strömungsmuster auf. Sie bestehen aus einer positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposphäre, die sich in einer Region mit starkem meridionalen Temperaturgradient befindet. Die positive PV-Anomalie löst eine zyklonale Strömung aus, dadurch wird östlich der PV-Anomalie warme Luft aus dem Süden herantransportiert. Während des Aufstieg der warmen Luft finden diabatische Prozesse statt, die zur Bildung einer neuen positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposphäre (PVA) führen. DRWs entstehen unabhängig von PV-Anomalien an der Tropopause. Falls sie jedoch mit ihnen in Wechselwirkung treten, kann - wie im Falle von Lothar - eine explosive Zyklogenese daraus resultieren. Im ersten Teil wird die Dynamik einer DRW am Beispiel des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Es wird insbesondere auf das Potential einer DRW zur explosiven Zyklogenese eingegangen. Im zweiten Teil wird das Aufretreten von DRWs in ECMWF-Vorhersagen untersucht. Es werden Unterschiede zwischen DRWs und anderen PV-Anomalien in der unteren Troposphäre hervorgehoben. Die Dynamik von DRWs wird mit Hilfe eines ECMWF-"Ensemble Prediction System" (EPS) des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Die 50 Modellläufe des EPS starten am 24. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC und reichen bis zum 26. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC. Nur 16 der 50 Modellläufe sagen einen ähnlich starken Sturm wie Lothar vorher. 10 Modellläufen sagen am 26. Dezember keine Zyklone mehr vorher. Die Ausprägung der baroklinen Zone, in der sich die DRW befindet, ist ausschlaggebend für die Intensität der DRW. Weitere wichtige Parameter sind der Feuchtegehalt der unteren Troposphäre und der latente Wärmefluss über dem Ozean. Diejenigen DRWs, die sich zu am 25. Dezember um 12 UTC näher als 400 km am Tropopausenjet befinden, entwickeln sich zu einer starken Zyklone. Alle anderen lösen sich auf oder bleiben schwache Zyklonen. Es ist schwierig, diabatische Prozesse in Wettervorhersagemodellen abzubilden, dementsprechend treten Schwierigkeiten bei der Vorhersage von PVAs auf. In den operationellen ECMWF-Vorhersagen von Juni 2004 bis Mai 2005 werden mit Hilfe eines Tracking- Algorithmus PVAs im Nordpazifik und Nordatlantik bestimmt und in fünf Kategorien eingeteilt. Die fünf Kategorien unterscheiden sich in ihrer Häufigkeit, ihrer Zugbahn und ihrer Gestalt. Im Nordpazifik entstehen doppelt so viele PVAs wie im Nordatlantik. Durchschnittlich werden im Winter weniger PVAs gefunden als im Sommer. Die Baroklinität und die Geschwindigkeit des Tropopausenjets ist in der Nähe von DRWs besonders hoch. Verglichen mit anderen PVAs weisen DRWs eine ähnliche Verteilung des reduzierten Bodendrucks auf. DRWs können in etwa gleich gut vorhergesagt werden wie andere PVAs.

Holocene tsunami events in the Eastern Ionian Sea - Geoscientific evidence from Cefalonia and the western Peloponnese (Greece)

This study presents geo-scientific evidence for Holocene tsunami impact along the shores of the Eastern Ionian Sea. Cefalonia Island, the Gulf of Kyparissia and the Gialova Lagoon were subject of detailed geo-scientific investigations. It is well known that the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean were hit by the destructive influence of tsunamis in the past. The seismically highly active Hellenic Trench is considered as the most significant tsunami source in the Eastern Ionian Sea. This study focuses on the reconstruction and detection of sedimentary signatures of palaeotsunami events and their influence on the Holocene palaeogeographical evolution. The results of fine grained near coast geo-archives are discussed and interpreted in detail to differentiate between tsunami, storm and sea level highstands as sedimentation processes.rnA multi-method approach was applied using geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, geophysical and microfaunal analyses to detect Holocene tsunamigenic impact. Chronological data were based on radiocarbondatings and archaeological age estimations to reconstruct local geo-chronostratigraphies and to correlate them on supra-regional scales.rnDistinct sedimentary signatures of 5 generations of tsunami impact were found along the coasts of Cefalonia in the Livadi coastal plain. The results show that the overall coastal evolution was influenced by tsunamigenic impact that occured around 5700 cal BC (I), 4250 cal BC (II), at the beginning of the 2nd millennium cal BC (III), in the 1st millennium cal BC (IV) and posterior to 780 cal AD (V). Sea level reconstructions and the palaeogeographical evolution show that the local Holocene sea level has never been higher than at present.rnAt the former Mouria Lagoon along the Gulf of Kyparissia almost four allochtonous layers of tsunamigenic origin were identified. The stratigraphical record and palaeogeographical reconstructions show that major environmental coastal changes were linked to these extreme events. At the southern end of the Agoulenitsa Lagoon at modern Kato Samikon high-energy traces were found more than 2 km inland and upt ot 9 m above present sea level. The geo-chronological framework deciphered tsunami landfall for the 5th millennium cal BC (I), mid to late 2nd mill. BC (II), Roman times (1st cent. BC to early 4th cent. AD) (III) and most possible one of the historically well-known 365 AD or 521/551 AD tsunamis (IV).rnCoarse-grained allochthonous sediments of marine origin were found intersecting muddy deposits of the quisecent sediments of the Gialova Lagoon on the southwestern Peloponnese. Radiocarbondatings suggest 6 generations of major tsunami impact. Tsunami generations were dated to around 3300 cal BC (I), around the end of 4th and the beginning of 3rd millennium BC (II), after around 1100 cal BC (III), after the 4th to 2nd cent. BC (IV), between the 8th and early 15th cent. AD (V) and between the mid 14th to beginning of 15th cent. AD (VI). Palaeogeographical and morphological characteristics in the environs of the Gialova Lagoon were controlled by high-energy influence.rnSedimentary findings in all study areas are in good accordance to traces of tsunami events found all over the Ionian Sea. The correlation of geo-chronological data fits very well to coastal Akarnania, the western Peloponnese and finding along the coasts of southern Italy and the Aegean. Supra-regional influence of tsunamigenic impact significant for the investigated sites. The palaeogeographical evolution and palaeo-geomorphological setting of the each study area was strongly affected by tsunamigenic impact.rnThe selected geo-archives represent extraordinary sediment traps for the reconstruction of Holocene coastal evolution. Our result therefore give new insight to the exceptional high tsunami risk in the eastern Mediterranean and emphasize the underestimation of the overall tsunami hazard.

An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

Recounting the Hurricane of 1938: local memories of a regional disaster

The Hurricane of 1938 was one of those defining moments that divide time into parts that either precede or follow. It was transformative, impacting human lives and settlements as well as natural systems, coastal and inland, aquatic and terrestrial, with a force unsurpassed in the region’s living memory. Seventy years have now passed since that hurricane made its historic landfall on the afternoon of September 21, 1938. Humans have regrouped and rebuilt and nature has regenerated and reclaimed, but the memories of those who lived through the Hurricane of ‘38 remain.

Factors influencing hurricane evacuation among Hispanic population

The recent hurricanes of Katrina, Rita, and Dolly have brought to light the precarious situation populations place themselves in when they are unprepared to face a storm, or do not follow official orders to evacuate when a destructive hurricane is poised to hit the area. Three counties in southern Texas lie within 60 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and along the Mexican border. Determining the barriers to hurricane evacuation in this distinct and highly impoverished area of the United States would help aid local, state, and federal agencies to respond more effectively to persons living here.^ The aim of this study was to examine intention to comply with mandatory hurricane evacuation orders among persons living in three counties in South Texas by gender, income, education, acculturation and county of residence. A questionnaire was administered to 3,088 households across the three counties using a two-stage cluster sampling strategy, stratified by all three counties. The door-to-door survey was a 73-item instrument that included demographics, reasons for and against evacuation, and preparedness for a hurricane. Weighted data were used for the analyses.^ Chi-square tests were run to determine whether differences between observed and expected frequencies were statistically significant. A logistic regression model was developed based on that univariate analysis. Results from the logistic regression estimated odds ratios and their 95 percent confidence intervals for the independent variables.^ Logistic regression results indicate that females were less likely than men to follow an evacuation order. Having a higher education meant more likelihood of evacuating. Those respondents with a higher affiliation with Spanish than English were more likely to follow the evacuation orders. Hidalgo County residents were less likely to evacuate than Cameron or Willacy Counties' residents. Local officials need to implement communication efforts specifically tailored for females, residents with less of an affiliation with Spanish, and Hidalgo County residents to ensure their successful evacuation prior to a strong hurricane's landfall.^

Changes in 911 call volume and type during Hurricane Ike and the implementation and usefulness of the TeleHealth Nurse system for the Houston Fire Department

This study examined both changing call volume and type with resulting effect of TeleHealth Nurse, the Houston Fire Department's (HFD) telephone nurse line, on call burden during Hurricane Ike. On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall in the Galveston area and continued north through Houston resulting in catastrophic damages in infrastructure and posing a public health threat. The overall goal of this study looked at data from Houston Fire Department to obtain a better understanding of the needs of citizens before, during, and after a hurricane. This study looked at four aspects of emergency response from HFD. The first section looked at call volumes surrounding the time of Hurricane Ike in 2008 compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a 12% increase in calls surrounding Hurricane Ike compared to previous years with a p value <.001. Next, the study evaluated the types of calls prevalent during Hurricane Ike compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a statistically significant increase in chronic health problems such as diabetes and cardiac events, Obstetric calls and an increase in breathing problems, falls, and lacerations during the days following Hurricane Ike. There was also a statistically significant increase in auto med alerts and check patients surrounding Hurricane Ike's landfall. The third section analyzed the change in call volume sent to HFD's Telephone Nurse Line during Hurricane Ike and compares this to earlier time periods while the fourth and final section looks at the types of calls sent to the nurse line during Hurricane Ike. The data showed limited use of the TeleHealth Nurse line before Hurricane Ike, but when the winds were at their strongest and ambulances were unable to leave the station, the nurse line was the only functioning medical help some people were able to receive. These studies bring a better understanding to the number and types of calls that a city might experience during a natural disaster, such as a hurricane. This study also shows the usefulness of an EMS Telephone Nurse Line during a natural disaster.^

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.