Soil data to support broad scale land suitability assessment in the Gippsland Region

This report outlines an analysis of soil data requirements across the Gippsland region in order for local councils to carry out regional-scale land suitability analysis (LSA). As such, the primary objective of this study was to ascertain and source available relevant soil attribute data and information necessary to enable LSA.

Warrnambool and Corangamite land suitability decision framework study: technical report

The Warrnambool-Corangamite Land Suitability and Decision Making Framework (the Project) is a joint project between the Corangamite Shire Council (CSC), the Warrnambool City Council (WCC), the Victorian Local Sustainability Accord, and Deakin University.
The Project was developed with the objective to establish a land suitability and decision-making framework for the WCC and CSC that can be applied to improve the basis for regional and local planning. The Project aims to improve approaches to regional planning to preserve highly productive agricultural land, protect and enhance the environment, whilst supporting sustainable regional development and settlement.

Evaluation of deterministic and complex analytical hierarchy process methods for agricultural land suitability analysis in a changing climate

Land suitability analysis is employed to evaluate the appropriateness of land for a particular purpose whilst integrating both qualitative and quantitative inputs, which can be continuous in nature. However, in agricultural modelling there is often a disregard of this contiguous aspect. Therefore, some parametric procedures for suitability analysis compartmentalise units into defined membership classes. This imposition of crisp boundaries neglects the continuous formations found throughout nature and overlooks differences and inherent uncertainties found in the modelling. This research will compare two approaches to suitability analysis over three differing methods. The primary approach will use an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the other approach will use a Fuzzy AHP over two methods; Fitted Fuzzy AHP and Nested Fuzzy AHP. Secondary to this, each method will be assessed into how it behaves in a climate change scenario to understand and highlight the role of uncertainties in model conceptualisation and structure. Outputs and comparisons between each method, in relation to area, proportion of membership classes and spatial representation, showed that fuzzy modelling techniques detailed a more robust and continuous output. In particular the Nested Fuzzy AHP was concluded to be more pertinent, as it incorporated complex modelling techniques, as well as the initial AHP framework. Through this comparison and assessment of model behaviour, an evaluation of each methods predictive capacity and relevance for decision-making purposes in agricultural applications is gained.

LCA-GIS Integrated approach for a Sustainable Land Use Under Energy Crops

In genere, negli studi di vocazionalità delle colture, vengono presi in considerazione solo variabili ambientali pedo-climatiche. La coltivazione di una coltura comporta anche un impatto ambientale derivante dalle pratiche agronomiche ed il territorio può essere più o meno sensibile a questi impatti in base alla sua vulnerabilità. In questo studio si vuole sviluppare una metodologia per relazionare spazialmente l’impatto delle colture con le caratteristiche sito specifiche del territorio in modo da considerare anche questo aspetto nell’allocazione negli studi di vocazionalità. LCA è stato utilizzato per quantificare diversi impatti di alcune colture erbacee alimentari e da energia, relazionati a mappe di vulnerabilità costruite con l’utilizzo di GIS, attraverso il calcolo di coefficienti di rischio di allocazione per ogni combinazione coltura-area vulnerabile. Le colture energetiche sono state considerate come un uso alternativo del suolo per diminuire l’impatto ambientale. Il caso studio ha mostrato che l’allocazione delle colture può essere diversa in base al tipo e al numero di impatti considerati. Il risultato sono delle mappe in cui sono riportate le distribuzioni ottimali delle colture al fine di minimizzare gli impatti, rispetto a mais e grano, due colture alimentari importanti nell’area di studio. Le colture con l’impatto più alto dovrebbero essere coltivate nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa, e viceversa. Se il rischio ambientale è la priorità, mais, colza, grano, girasole, e sorgo da fibra dovrebbero essere coltivate solo nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa o moderata, mentre, le colture energetiche erbacee perenni, come il panico, potrebbero essere coltivate anche nelle aree a vulnerabilità alta, rappresentando cosi una opportunità per aumentare la sostenibilità di uso del suolo rurale. Lo strumento LCA-GIS inoltre, integrato con mappe di uso attuale del suolo, può aiutare a valutarne il suo grado di sostenibilità ambientale.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Solos e aptidão agrícola das terras da região administrativa de Taguatinga, Distrito Federal (1999).

A Regiao Administrativa de Taguatinga, no Distrito Federal, ocupa uma area de 127km2. As principais classes de solos que ocorrem nessa Regiao sao: Latossolos, Cambissolos e Solos Hidromorficos cujas principais caracteristicas quimicas, fisicas e morfologicas, bem como aptidao agricola sao apresentadas neste trabalho com objetivo de subsidiar projetos de desenvolvimento e ocupacao agricola locais. Os Latossolos sao argilosos, muito argilosos, ou de textura media bem drenados e com media capacidade de agua disponivel. Os Cambissolos de Taguatinga sao de rasos a profundos, concrecionarios, de textura argilosa a media, ambas cascalhentas. Tem reduzida capacidade de agua disponivel. Sao distroficos ou alicos. Os Plintossolos sao argilosos. Esses solos sao tambem imperfeitamente a mal drenados. Os Gleissolos apresentam textura argilosa ou muito argilosa. Normalmente, sao solos de estrutura macica bem coerente. Sao distroficos, com teor medio a alto de aluminio. Em relacao a aptidao agricola, os Latossolos de Taguatinga, DF, sao todos classificados como 2(b)c (6.792,77ha). Os Cambissolos de Taguatinga sao classificados como 5(n) (2.361,14 ha). Os hidromorficos sao 2b(c) (1.167,83 ha), havendo em menor proporcao aptidao inferior a indicada. O uso atual do solo nessa Regiao esta definido em: uso urbano consolidado; Cerrado Sentido Restrito; Campo Limpo Umido; Campo Sujo Umido; agricultura; reflorestamento; areas degradadas. Solos de varzeas e nascentes tem sido ocupados com loteamentos urbanos, areas industriais, comerciais e por invasoes, comprometendo a qualidade dos mananciais de agua. O potencial de uso desses solos para producao de hortifrutigranjeiros, que e opcao economica importante para municipios com area rural reduzida, esta prejudicado.

Aptidao agricola das terras da Bacia do Olaria, Distrito Federal.

2001

Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

A discrete simulation approach to spatial allocation of commodity production for revenue optimisation over a local region

A simulation approach is described for the spatial allocation of crops across a region in order to maximise total revenue. The model uses inputs from GIS-based land suitability analysis to provide data on yields for a range of commodities, where the land suitability for the crops can be determined by either biophysical models or multi-criteria analysis. The objective of the study was to gain some indication of the magnitude of improvement possible in revenue, based on the convergence results for the optimisation (subject to estimated production quantities and market prices). The basic structure of the model allows for scaling up to larger problems with additional inputs and finer cell resolution. The software produces a visualisation of crop spatial allocation across the region and is compatible with statistical uncertainty analysis. The results of model simulations revealed a significant increase in revenue is possible using this approach and, when projected over the full region, suggests the possibility of significant economic benefits.

Adaptation to climate change in regional Australia : a decision-making framework for modelling policy for rural production

A decision-making framework was developed and applied in regional Australia to identify adaptation issues arising in agricultural systems and rural production as a consequence of climate change. Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. An advantage of the framework is that it provides a suite of tools to aid in the formulation of strategies for sustainable regional development and adaptation. The decision-making framework uses a participatory approach that integrates land suitability analysis with uncertainty analysis and spatial optimisation to determine optimal agricultural land use (at a regional scale) for current and possible future climatic conditions. It thus provides a robust analytic approach to (i) recognise regions under threat of productivity declines, (ii) identify alternative cropping systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and (iii) investigate policy actions to improve the sub-optimal situations created by climate change. The decision-making framework and its methods were applied in a case study of the South West Region of Victoria.

A modelling framework for optimisation of commodity production by minimising the impact of climate change

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and the frequency of extreme weather events. A modelling framework was developed and applied to identify issues, problems and opportunities arising in regional agricultural systems as a consequence of climate change. This integrated framework blends together land suitability analysis, uncertainty analysis and an optimisation approach to establish optimal agricultural land-use patterns on a regional scale for current and possible future climate scenarios. The framework can also be used to identify (i) regions under threat of productivity decline, and (ii) alternative crops and their locations that can cope better with changing climate. The methods and contents of the framework are presented by means of a case study developed in the South West Region of Victoria, Australia. The results can be used to assess land suitability in support of optimised crop allocations across a local region, and to underpin the development of a regional adaptation policy framework designed to reduce the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to the impacts of climate change.

Application of GIS-based computer modelling to planning for adaption to climate change in rural areas

A GIS-based computer modelling methodology was developed and applied to identify climate change adaptation issues arising in regional agricultural production systems (including forestry). Agricultural production in Australia is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to projected shifts in rainfall and temperature. The methodology integrates land suitability analysis with uncertainty analysis and spatial (regional) optimisation to determine optimal agricultural land use at a regional scale for current and possible future climatic conditions. The approach can be used to recognise regions under threat of productivity decline, identify alternative cropping systems that may be better adapted to likely future conditions, and investigate implementation actions to improve the sub-optimal situations created by climate change. An example of how the methodology may be used is outlined through a case study involving the South West Region of Victoria, Australia. The case study provides information on the tools available to support the formulation of a regional adaptation strategy.

Nova versão do sistema de avaliação de terras - SIAT

O SIAT é um sistema especialista para Avaliação de Terras derivado do MicroLEIS - Land Evaluation Information System desenvolvido na Espanha. Na primeira versão, as 12 variáveis foram adaptadas e ajustadas para condições tropicais, assim como a estrutura do programa e o banco de dados. Os testes de campo mostraram que os melhores resultados foram obtidos para escalas próximas de 1:100.000. Nesta segunda versão, os intervalos das variáveis foram redefinidos e uma interface de comunicação com o SIG IDRISI foi introduzida, permitindo a troca de dados entre os dois programas. Outra modificação importante foi a adoção de uma equação para calcular a erosividade no lugar de mapa apresentado no Manual do Usuário. Os testes de campo mostraram que o uso do SIAT é agora mais funcional, com melhor resolução, permitindo trabalhar com escalas em torno de 1:50.000, além de ser adaptável para todo o território brasileiro. A versão do SIAT pode ser obtida pelo endereço www.rc.unesp.br/igce/ceapla/biblioteca/softwares/siat.html.

Técnicas de geoprocessamento e de análise de multicritérios na adequação de uso das terras

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)