Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Vitamin E may affect the life expectancy of men, depending on dietary vitamin C intake and smoking

Background: Antioxidants might protect against oxidative stress, which has been suggested as a cause of aging. Methods: The ATBC Study recruited males aged 50-69 years who smoked at least 5 cigarettes per day at the baseline. The current study was restricted to participants who were followed up past the age of 65. Deaths were identified in the National Death Registry (1445 deaths). We constructed Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all participants, and for four subgroups defined by dietary vitamin C intake and level of smoking. We also constructed Cox regression models allowing a different vitamin E effect for low and high age ranges. Results: Among all 10,837 participants, vitamin E had no effect on those who were 65 to 70 years old, but reduced mortality by 24% when participants were 71 or older. Among 2284 men with dietary vitamin C intakes above the median who smoked less than a pack of cigarettes per day, vitamin E extended life-span by two years at the upper limit of the follow-up age span. In this subgroup, the survival curves of vitamin E and no-vitamin E participants diverged at 71 years. In the other three subgroups covering 80% of the participants, vitamin E did not affect mortality. Conclusions: This is the first study to strongly indicate that protection against oxidative stress can increase the life expectancy of some initially healthy population groups. Nevertheless, the lack of effect in 80% of this male cohort shows that vitamin E is no panacea for extending life expectancy.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

Life Expectancy, Schooling Time and Endogenous Growth

Published as an article in: Economic Inquiry, 2004, vol. 42, issue 4, pp. 602–617.

Changes in social inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in Southern Europe: the case of the Basque Country

Background: Health expectancy is a useful tool to monitor health inequalities. The evidence about the recent changes in social inequalities in healthy expectancy is relatively scarce and inconclusive, and most studies have focused on Anglo-Saxon and central or northern European countries. The objective of this study was to analyse the changes in socioeconomic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in a Southern European population, the Basque Country, during the first decade of the 21st century. Methods: This was an ecological cross-sectional study of temporal trends on the Basque population in 1999-2003 and 2004-2008. All-cause mortality rate, life expectancy, prevalence of disability and disability free-life expectancy were calculated for each period according to the deprivation level of the area of residence. The slope index of inequality and the relative index of inequality were calculated to summarize and compare the inequalities in the two periods. Results: Disability free-life expectancy decreased as area deprivation increased both in men and in women. The difference between the most extreme groups in 2004-2008 was 6.7 years in men and 3.7 in women. Between 1999-2003 and 2004-2008, socioeconomic inequalities in life expectancy decreased, and inequalities in disability-free expectancy increased in men and decreased in women. Conclusions: This study found important socioeconomic inequalities in health expectancy in the Basque Country. These inequalities increased in men and decreased in women in the first decade of the 21st century, during which the Basque Country saw considerable economic growth.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Life expectancy of rigid gas permeable and high water content contact lenses

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the life expectancy of various rigid gas permeable (RGP) lens materials used on a daily wear basis and to compare these results with the life expectancy of a matched group of soft lens wearers.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 600 contact lens wearing patients (300 soft contact lens users and 300 RGP lens users) fit between September 1987 and September 1994. None of the subjects wore lenses on a planned replacement system. For the purposes of the study, RGP lenses were divided into three groups: <40 Dk were considered low-Dk; 41-89 Dk were considered mid-Dk; and >90 Dk were considered high-Dk. All soft lenses were high water content lenses (>60% water content). Lenses were included if they were replaced due to loss, breakage, deposition, or poor wettability but not if replaced because of changes in fit or prescription.

Results; The mean (+SD) life-spans of each lens type in months were 19.9 +/- 17 for low-Dk RGP lenses, 15.9 +/-13.3 for mid-Dk RGP lenses, 9.0+8.2 for high-Dk RGP lenses, and 6.4 +/-5.2 for high water content soft lenses. Statistical analysis using a one-way ANOVA on ranks indicated that these results were statistically significant (P< 0.0001).

Conclusions: Patients should be informed that high-Dk lenses (RGP and soft) provide substantial clinical benefits and that they should expect to replace high-Dk RGP lenses after approximately 6 months. This lends further credence to the use of high-Dk lenses on a planned replacement basis.

Life expectancy, educational attainment, and fertility choice

This paper explores the role of mortality as a determinant of educational attainment and fertility, both during the demographic transition and after its completion. Two main points distinguish our analysis from the previous ones. Together with the investments of parents in the human capital of children, traditional in the fertility literature, we introduce investments of adult individuals (parents) in their own education, which ultimately determines productivity in both the goods and household sectors. Second, we let adult longevity affect the way parents value each individual child. Increases in adult longevity or reductions in child mortality eventually raise the investments in adult education. Together with the higher utility derived from each child, this tilts the quality-quantity trade off towards less and better educated children, and increases the growth rate of the economy. This setup can explain both the demographic transition and the recent behavior of fertility in “post-transition” countries. Evidence from historical experiences of demographic transition, and from the recent behavior of fertility, education, and growth generally supports the predictions of the model.

Life expectancy and human capital investment: the arrival of AIDS treatment in Brazil

This paper provides microevidence on the relationship between life expectancy and educational investment decisions. Human capital theory predicts an increase in life expectancy should lead to an augmenting in schooling investment. This paper uses an unique data set on AIDS patients among Brazilian inhabitants in an attempt to estimate the impact of the arrival of Antiretroviral therapy (ART) on educational outcomes. The availability of ART offsets the negative relationship between vertical HIV-transmission and schooling, around 68% and 57% for elementary and high school completion, respectively. Robustness tests indicate the results are not driven by convergence effects.