A hybrid procedure to identify the optimal stiffness coefficients of elastically restrained beams

The formulation of a bending vibration problem of an elastically restrained Bernoulli-Euler beam carrying a finite number of concentrated elements along its length is presented. In this study, the authors exploit the application of the differential evolution optimization technique to identify the torsional stiffness properties of the elastic supports of a Bernoulli-Euler beam. This hybrid strategy allows the determination of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of continuous beams, taking into account the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, followed by a reconciliation step between the theoretical model results and the experimental ones. The proposed optimal identification of the elastic support parameters is computationally demanding if the exact eigenproblem solving is considered. Hence, the use of a Gaussian process regression as a meta-model is addressed. An experimental application is used in order to assess the accuracy of the estimated parameters throughout the comparison of the experimentally obtained natural frequency, from impact tests, and the correspondent computed eigenfrequency.

Employing Distances in Design-based Spatial Estimation

In the last couple of decades we assisted to a reappraisal of spatial design-based techniques. Usually the spatial information regarding the spatial location of the individuals of a population has been used to develop efficient sampling designs. This thesis aims at offering a new technique for both inference on individual values and global population values able to employ the spatial information available before sampling at estimation level by rewriting a deterministic interpolator under a design-based framework. The achieved point estimator of the individual values is treated both in the case of finite spatial populations and continuous spatial domains, while the theory on the estimator of the population global value covers the finite population case only. A fairly broad simulation study compares the results of the point estimator with the simple random sampling without replacement estimator in predictive form and the kriging, which is the benchmark technique for inference on spatial data. The Monte Carlo experiment is carried out on populations generated according to different superpopulation methods in order to manage different aspects of the spatial structure. The simulation outcomes point out that the proposed point estimator has almost the same behaviour as the kriging predictor regardless of the parameters adopted for generating the populations, especially for low sampling fractions. Moreover, the use of the spatial information improves substantially design-based spatial inference on individual values.

On ANOVA Decompositions of Kernels and Gaussian Random Field Paths

The FANOVA (or “Sobol’-Hoeffding”) decomposition of multivariate functions has been used for high-dimensional model representation and global sensitivity analysis. When the objective function f has no simple analytic form and is costly to evaluate, computing FANOVA terms may be unaffordable due to numerical integration costs. Several approximate approaches relying on Gaussian random field (GRF) models have been proposed to alleviate these costs, where f is substituted by a (kriging) predictor or by conditional simulations. Here we focus on FANOVA decompositions of GRF sample paths, and we notably introduce an associated kernel decomposition into 4 d 4d terms called KANOVA. An interpretation in terms of tensor product projections is obtained, and it is shown that projected kernels control both the sparsity of GRF sample paths and the dependence structure between FANOVA effects. Applications on simulated data show the relevance of the approach for designing new classes of covariance kernels dedicated to high-dimensional kriging.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Loss minimization by the predictor-corrector modified barrier approach

This paper presents a new approach, predictor-corrector modified barrier approach (PCMBA), to minimize the active losses in power system planning studies. In the PCMBA, the inequality constraints are transformed into equalities by introducing positive auxiliary variables. which are perturbed by the barrier parameter, and treated by the modified barrier method. The first-order necessary conditions of the Lagrangian function are solved by predictor-corrector Newton`s method. The perturbation of the auxiliary variables results in an expansion of the feasible set of the original problem, reaching the limits of the inequality constraints. The feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated using various IEEE test systems and a realistic power system of 2256-bus corresponding to the Brazilian South-Southeastern interconnected system. The results show that the utilization of the predictor-corrector method with the pure modified barrier approach accelerates the convergence of the problem in terms of the number of iterations and computational time. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A wavelet visible difference predictor

In this paper, we describe a model of the human visual system (HVS) based on the wavelet transform. This model is largely based on a previously proposed model, but has a number of modifications that make it more amenable to potential integration into a wavelet based image compression scheme. These modifications include the use of a separable wavelet transform instead of the cortex transform, the application of a wavelet contrast sensitivity function (CSP), and a simplified definition of subband contrast that allows us to predict noise visibility directly from wavelet coefficients. Initially, we outline the luminance, frequency, and masking sensitivities of the HVS and discuss how these can be incorporated into the wavelet transform. We then outline a number of limitations of the wavelet transform as a model of the HVS, namely the lack of translational invariance and poor orientation sensitivity. In order to investigate the efficacy of this wavelet based model, a wavelet visible difference predictor (WVDP) is described. The WVDP is then used to predict visible differences between an original and compressed (or noisy) image. Results are presented to emphasize the limitations of commonly used measures of image quality and to demonstrate the performance of the WVDP, The paper concludes with suggestions on bow the WVDP can be used to determine a visually optimal quantization strategy for wavelet coefficients and produce a quantitative measure of image quality.

Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Bioimpedance: Is it a predictor of true water volume?

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) has been reported to be insensitive to changes in water volumes in individual subjects, This study was designed to investigate the effect on the intra- and extracellular resistances (Ri and Re) of the segments of subjects for whom body water was changed without significant change to the total amount of electrolyte in the respective fluids, Twelve healthy adult subjects were recruited. Ri and Re of the leg, trunk, and arm of the subjects were determined from BIA measures prior to commencement of two separate studies that involved intervention, resulting in a loss/gain of body water effected either bt a sauna followed by water intake (study 1) or by ingestion (study 2). Ri and Re of the segments were also determined at a number of times following these interventions, The mean change in body water, expressed as a percentage of body weight, was 0.9% in study 1 and 1.25% in study 2. For each study, the results for each subject were normalized for each limb to the initial (prestudy) value and then the normalized results for each segment were pooled for all subjects, ANOVA of these pooled results failed to demonstrate any significant differences between the normalized mean values of Ri or Re of the segments measured through the course of each study, The failure to detect a change in Ri or Re is explained in terms of the basic theory of BIA.

Attachment style as a predictor of sexual attitudes and behavior in late adolescence

This research applied attachment theory to the study of sexual attitudes and behaviors in a sample of late adolescents. Four hundred and seventy heterosexual undergraduate students completed questionnaires assessing attachment (discomfort with closeness; anxiety over relationships), relationship history, communication about sex, sexual self-efficacy and locus of control, and attitudes to condoms. Eight weeks later, participants reported on sexual behaviors occurring during the eight-week interval, and perceived risk of these activities. Both discomfort with closeness and anxiety over relationships were associated with external locus of control for sexual outcomes, and with use of drugs before sexual contact. Anxiety over relationships was linked to unsafe sex and to negative attitudes to condoms, but discomfort with closeness was associated with a more cautious approach to sexual risk-taking. Some results were qualified by gender differences, and by differences between the full sample and those who were sexually active. The findings are discussed in terms of attachment style and its links with communication and affect regulation.

Stereotypic explanatory bias: Implicit stereotyping as a predictor of discrimination

Two experiments examined whether a measure of implicit stereotyping based on the tendency to explain Black stereotype-incongruent events more often than Black stereotype-congruent events (Stereotypic Explanatory Bias or SEB) is predictive of behavior toward a partner in an interracial interaction. In Experiment I SEB predicted White males' choice to ask stereotypic questions of a Black female (but not a White male or White female) in an interview. In Experiment 2 the type of explanation (internal or external attribution) made for stereotype-inconsistency was examined. Results showed that White participants who made internal attributions for Black stereotype-incongruent behavior were rated more positively and those who made external attributions were rated more negatively by a Black male confederate. These results point to the potential of implicit stereotyping as an important predictor of behavior in an interracial interaction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Exhaled nitric oxide as a predictor of exacerbation in children with moderate-to-severe asthma: a prospective, 5-month study

Background: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) are recommended as the first line of treatment in children with moderate-to-severe asthma. Exhaled nitric oxide (ENO) has been proposed as a clinically useful marker of control that might help identify patients in whom ICS dose may be safely reduced. Objective: To evaluate the ability of ENO to predict future asthma exacerbations in children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Methods: This is an observational study with no control group. ENO was measured biweekly for 14 weeks in 32 children with moderate-to-severe asthma who were undergoing ICS tapering. Clinical evaluations and spirometry were performed concomitantly, and families kept daily diaries to record symptoms between visits. We used generalized estimating equations to model the In (odds) of an asthma exacerbation in the subsequent 2-week interval as a function of ENO level at the start of the interval while adjusting for age, sex, asthma severity, and current medication use. Results: We were able to successfully lower ICS doses in 10 (56%) of the 18 children with moderate asthma and in 3 (21%) of the 14 children with severe asthma. In 83 of the 187 follow-up clinical evaluations, children were determined to have had an exacerbation during the preceding 2 weeks. ENO levels, whether expressed as a continuous variable or dichotomized, were not associated with future risk for exacerbations in either unadjusted or adjusted models. Conclusion: ENO was not a useful clinical predictor of future asthma exacerbations for children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2009; 103:206-211.

FGF-23 as a Predictor of Renal Outcome in Diabetic Nephropathy

Background and objectives Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) has emerged as a new factor in mineral metabolism in chronic kidney disease (CKD). An important regulator of phosphorus homeostasis, FGF-23 has been shown to independently predict CKD progression in nondiabetic renal disease. We analyzed the relation between FGF-23 and renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy (DN). Design, setting, participants, & measurements DN patients participating in a clinical trial (enalapril+placebo versus enalapril+losartan) had baseline data collected and were followed until June 2009 or until the primary outcome was reached. Four patients were lost to follow-up. The composite primary outcome was defined as death, doubling of serum creatinine, and/or dialysis need. Results At baseline, serum FGF-23 showed a significant association with serum creatinine, intact parathyroid hormone, proteirturia, urinary fractional excretion of phosphate, male sex, and race. Interestingly, FGF-23 was not related to calcium, phosphorus, 25OH-vitamin D, or 24-hour urinary phosphorus. Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Cox regression showed that FGF-23 was an independent predictor of the primary outcome, even after adjustment for creatinine clearance and intact parathyroid hormone (10 pg/ml FGF-23 increase = hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.02). Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of the primary outcome in patients with FGF-23 values of >70 pg/ml. Conclusions FGF-23 is a significant independent predictor of renal outcome in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Further studies should clarify whether this relation is causal and whether FGF-23 should be a new therapeutic target for CKD prevention. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 241-247, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.04250510

Depression: a predictor of smoking relapse in a 6-month follow-up after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome

Objective The objective of the study was to investigate whether depression is a predictor of postdischarge smoking relapse among patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction (MI) or unstable angina (ILIA), in a smoke-free hospital. Methods Current smokers with MI or UA were interviewed while hospitalized; patients classified with major depression (MD) or no humor disorder were reinterviewed 6 months post discharge to ascertain smoking status. Potential predictors of relapse (depression; stress; anxiety; heart disease risk perception; coffee and alcohol consumption; sociodemographic, clinical, and smoking habit characteristics) were compared between those with MD (n = 268) and no humor disorder (n = 135). Results Relapsers (40.4%) were more frequently and more severely depressed, had higher anxiety and lower self-efficacy scale scores, diagnosis of UA, shorter hospitalizations, started smoking younger, made fewer attempts to quit, had a consort less often, and were more frequently at the `precontemplation` stage of change. Multivariate analysis showed relapse-positive predictors to be MD [odds ratio (OR): 2.549; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.519-4.275] (P<0.001); `precontemplation` stage of change (OR: 7.798; 95% CI: 2.442-24.898) (P<0.001); previous coronary bypass graft surgery (OR: 4.062; 95% CI: 1.356-12.169) (P=0.012); and previous anxiolytic use (OR: 2.365; 95% CI: 1.095-5.107) (P=0.028). Negative predictors were diagnosis of MI (OR: 0.575; 95% CI: 0.361-0.916) (P=0.019); duration of hospitalization (OR: 0.935; 95% CI: 0.898-0.973) (P=0.001); smoking onset age (OR: 0.952; 95% CI: 0.910-0.994) (P=0.028); number of attempts to quit smoking (OR: 0.808; 95% CI: 0.678-0.964) (P=0.018); and `action` stage of change (OR: 0.065; 95% CI: 0.008-0.532) (P= 0.010). Conclusion Depression, no motivation, shorter hospitalization, and severity of illness contributed to postdischarge resumption of smoking by patients with acute coronary syndrome, who underwent hospital-initiated smoking cessation.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

FibroTest is an independent predictor of virologic response in chronic hepatitis C patients retreated with pegylated interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin in the EPIC(3) program

Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.