Job dynamics, correlated shocks and wage profiles

We generalize the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) model of the labor marketwith a more realistic structure for the stochastic process of theshocks to the worker-firm match. In this way we can acommodate theempirical observation that hazard rates of job termination decrease andaverage wages increase with job tenure. Besides being able to fit bettersome observables of the model, the changes we introduce are nontrivialfor the analysis of policies as well.

A construção de espaço e cultura: trajetórias migratórias entre Monte Azul (MG) e Rio Claro (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Entrepreneurship in different contexts in cultural and creative industries

This study analyzes howhard and soft conditions influence the development of entrepreneurship in cultural and creative industries (CCIs). The study further examines what influence the context has on the effect of these conditions. A multiplemultivariate regression analysis examines the importance of both the hard and soft conditions to explain the differences between the United Kingdom and the Mediterranean countries of Portugal, Spain, and Greece. The sample comprises 123 entrepreneurs from the four countries. The use of this method represents an important contribution to the understanding of entrepreneurship dynamics and for the further fine-tuning of entrepreneurship policies in CCIs in different contexts.

Firm dynamics and job creation in the United Kingdom:1998–2013

This article is motivated by a very simple question – ‘what types of firms create the most jobs in the UK economy?’ One popular answer to this question has been High-Growth Firms (HGFs). These firms represent only a small minority – the ‘Vital 6%’ – of the UK business population yet, but have a disproportionate impact on job creation and innovation. We re-visit the discussion launched by the 2009 National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (NESTA) reports, which identified the 6% figure and, using more recent data, confirm the headline conclusion for job creation: a small number of job-creating firms (mostly small firms) are responsible for a significant amount of net job creation in the United Kingdom. Adopting our alternative preferred analytical approach, which involves tracking the growth performance of cohorts of start-ups confirms this conclusion; however, we find an even smaller number of job-creating firms are responsible for a very significant proportion of job creation. We conclude by considering the question – ‘what are the implications for policy choices?’.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Relations of the job demands-control-support model of job strain with personality attributes : a cross-cultural study in Switzerland and South Africa

Among the various work stress models, one of the most popular to date is the job demands-­‐control (JDC) model developed by Karasek (1979), which postulates that work-­‐related strain will be the highest under work conditions characterized by high demands and low autonomy. The absence of social support at work will further increase negative outcomes. However, this model does not apply equally to all individuals and to all cultures. In the following studies, we assessed work characteristics, personality traits, culture-­‐driven individual attributes, and work-­‐related health outcomes, through the administration of questionnaires. The samples consist of Swiss (n = 622) and South African (n = 879) service-­‐oriented employees (from health, finance, education and commerce sectors) and aged from 18 to 65 years old. Results generally confirm the universal contribution of high psychological demands, low decision latitude and low supervisor support at work, as well as high neuroticism predict the worse health outcomes among employees in both countries. Furthermore, low neuroticism plays a moderating role between psychological demands and burnout, while high openness and high conscientiousness each play a moderating role between decision latitude and burnout in South Africa. Results also reveal that culture-­‐driven individual attributes play a role in both countries, but in a unique manner and according to the ethnic group of belonging. Given that organizations are increasingly characterized with multicultural employees as well as increasingly adverse and complex job conditions, our results help in identifying more updated and refined dynamics that are key between the employee and the work environment in today's context. -- L'un des modèles sur le stress au travail des plus répandus est celui développé par Karasek (1979), qui postule qu'une mauvaise santé chez les employés résulte d'une combinaison de demandes psychologiques élevées, d'une latitude décisionnelle faible et de l'absence de soutien social au travail. Néanmoins, ce modèle ne s'applique pas de façon équivalente chez tous les individus et dans toutes les cultures. Dans les études présentées, nous avons mesuré les caractéristiques de travail, les traits de personnalité, les traits culturels et les effets lies à la santé à l'aide de questionnaires. L'échantillon provient de la Suisse (n = 622) et de l'Afrique du Sud (n = 879) et comprend des employés de domaines divers en lien avec le service (notamment des secteurs de la santé, finance, éducation et commerce) tous âgés entre 18 et 65 ans. Les résultats confirment l'universalité des effets directs des demandes au travail, la latitude décisionnelle faible, le soutien social faible provenant du supérieur hiérarchique, ainsi que le névrosisme élevé qui contribuent à un niveau de santé faible au travail, et ce, dans les deux pays. De plus, un niveau faible de névrosisme a un effet de modération entre les demandes au travail et l'épuisement professionnel, alors que l'ouverture élevée et le caractère consciencieux élevé modèrent la relation entre la latitude décisionnelle et l'épuisement professionnel en Afrique du Sud. Nous avons aussi trouvé que les traits culturels jouent un rôle dans les deux pays, mais de façon unique et en fonction du groupe ethnique d'appartenance. Sachant que les organisations sont de plus en plus caractérisées par des employés d'origine ethnique variées, et que les conditions de travail se complexifient, nos résultats contribuent à mieux comprendre les dynamiques entre l'employé et l'environnement de travail contemporain. personnalité, différences individuelles, comparaisons culturelles, culture, stress au travail, épuisement professionnel, santé des employés.

Contextualizing discretion : micro-dynamics of Canada’s refugee determination system

À une époque où l'immigration internationale est de plus en plus difficile et sélective, le statut de réfugié constitue un bien public précieux qui permet à certains non-citoyens l'accès et l'appartenance au pays hôte. Reposant sur le jugement discrétionnaire du décideur, le statut de réfugié n’est accordé qu’aux demandeurs qui établissent une crainte bien fondée de persécution en cas de retour dans leur pays d'origine. Au Canada, le plus important tribunal administratif indépendant, la Commission de l'immigration et du statut de réfugié du Canada (CISR), est chargé d’entendre les demandeurs d'asile et de rendre des décisions de statut de réfugié. Cette thèse cherche à comprendre les disparités dans le taux d’octroi du statut de réfugié entre les décideurs de la CISR qui sont politiquement nommés. Au regard du manque de recherches empiriques sur la manière avec laquelle le Canada alloue les possibilités d’entrée et le statut juridique pour les non-citoyens, il était nécessaire de lever le voile sur le fonctionnement de l’administration sur cette question. En explorant la prise de décision relative aux réfugiés à partir d'une perspective de Street Level Bureaucracy Theory (SLBT) et une méthodologie ethnographique qui combine l'observation directe, les entretiens semi-structurés et l'analyse de documents, l'étude a d'abord cherché à comprendre si la variation dans le taux d’octroi du statut était le résultat de différences dans les pratiques et le raisonnement discrétionnaires du décideur et ensuite à retracer les facteurs organisationnels qui alimentent les différences. Dans la lignée des travaux de SLBT qui documentent la façon dont la situation de travail structure la discrétion et l’importance des perceptions individuelles dans la prise de décision, cette étude met en exergue les différences de fond parmi les décideurs concernant les routines de travail, la conception des demandeurs d’asile, et la meilleure façon de mener leur travail. L’analyse montre comment les décideurs appliquent différentes approches lors des audiences, allant de l’interrogatoire rigide à l’entrevue plus flexible. En dépit des contraintes organisationnelles qui pèsent sur les décideurs pour accroître la cohérence et l’efficacité, l’importance de l’évaluation de la crédibilité ainsi que l’invisibilité de l’espace de décision laissent suffisamment de marge pour l’exercice d’un pouvoir discrétionnaire. Même dans les environnements comme les tribunaux administratifs où la surabondance des règles limite fortement la discrétion, la prise de décision est loin d’être synonyme d’adhésion aux principes de neutralité et hiérarchie. La discrétion est plutôt imbriquée dans le contexte de routines d'interaction, de la situation de travail, de l’adhésion aux règles et du droit. Même dans les organisations qui institutionnalisent et uniformisent la formation et communiquent de façon claire leurs demandes aux décideurs, le caractère discrétionnaire de la décision est par la nature difficile, voire impossible, à contrôler et discipliner. Lorsqu'ils sont confrontés à l'ambiguïté des objectifs et aux exigences qui s’opposent à leur pouvoir discrétionnaire, les décideurs réinterprètent la définition de leur travail et banalisent leurs pratiques. Ils formulent une routine de rencontre qui est acceptable sur le plan organisationnel pour évaluer les demandeurs face à eux. Cette thèse montre comment les demandeurs, leurs témoignages et leurs preuves sont traités d’une manière inégale et comment ces traitements se répercutent sur la décision des réfugiés.

Earnings dynamics and inequality in Venezuela: 1995-1997

In this paper, we decompose the variance of logarithmic monthly earnings of prime age males into its permanent and transitory components, using a five-wave rotating panel from the Venezuelan “Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo” from 1995 to 1997. As far as we know, this is the first time a variance components model is estimated for a developing country. We test several specifications and find that an error component model with individual random effects and first order serially correlated errors fits the data well. In the simplest model, around 22% of earnings variance is explained by the variance of permanent component, 77% by purely stochastic variation and the remaining 1% by serial correlation. These results contrast with studies from industrial countries where the permanent component is predominant. The permanent component is usually interpreted as the results of productivity characteristics of individuals whereas the transitory component is due to stochastic perturbations such as job and/or price instability, among others. Our findings may be due to the timing of the panel when occurred precisely during macroeconomic turmoil resulting from a severe financial crisis. The findings suggest that earnings instability is an important source of inequality in a region characterized by high inequality and macroeconomic instability.

Job Matching and Wage Growth in the U.S. and Germany

This paper examines the contribution of job matching to wage growth in the U.S. and Germany using data drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984 through 1992. Using a symmetrical set of variables and data handling procedures, real wage growth is found to be higher in the U.S. than in Germany during this period. Also, using two different estimators, job matches are found to enhance wage growth in the U.S. and retard it in Germany. The relationship of general skills to employment in each country appears responsible for this result.

Influence of the track quality and of the properties of the wheel rail rolling contact on vehicle dynamics

This work describes an analytical approach to determine what degree of accuracy is required in the definition of the rail vehicle models used for dynamic simulations. This way it would be possible to know in advance how the results of simulations may be altered due to the existence of errors in the creation of rolling stock models, whilst also identifying their critical parameters. This would make it possible to maximize the time available to enhance dynamic analysis and focus efforts on factors that are strictly necessary.In particular, the parameters related both to the track quality and to the rolling contact were considered in this study. With this aim, a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess their influence on the vehicle dynamic behaviour. To do this, 72 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the track quality, the wheel-rail friction coefficient and the equivalent conicity of both new and worn wheels. Three values were assigned to each parameter, and two wear states were considered for each type of wheel, one for new wheels and another one for reprofiled wheels.After processing the results of these simulations, it was concluded that all the parameters considered show very high influence, though the friction coefficient shows the highest influence. Therefore, it is recommended to undertake any future simulation job with measured track geometry and track irregularities, measured wheel profiles and normative values of wheel-rail friction coefficient.

Approaches to issues of job regulation. A study at branch level in a white collar, public sector trade union. Available in 2 volumes.

This study examines the internal dynamics of white collar trade union branches in the public sector. The effects of a number of internal and external factors on branch patterns of action are evaluated. For the purposes of the study branch action is taken to be the approach to issues of job regulation, as expressed along the five dimensions of dependence on the outside trade union, focus in issues adopted, initiation of issues, intensity of action in issue pursuit and representativeness. The setting chosen for the study is four branches drawn from the same geographical area of the National and Local Government Officers Association. Branches were selected to give a variety in industry settings while controlling for the potentially influential variables of branch size, density of trade union membership and possession of exclusive representational rights in the employing organisation. Identical methods of data collection were used for each branch. The principal findings of the study are that the framework of national agreements and industry collective bargaining structures are strongly related to the industrial relations climate in the employing organisation and the structures of representation within the branch. Where agreements and collective bargaining structures formally restrict branch job regulation roles, there is a degree of devolution of bargaining authority from branch level negotiators to autonomous shop stewards at workplace level. In these circumstances industrial relations climate is characterised by a degree of informality in relationships between management and trade union activists. In turn, industrial relations climate and representative structures together with actor attitudes, have strong effects on all dimensions of approach to issues of job regulation.