Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Replacing bare fallow with cover crops in an irrigated cropping system: soil salinity and salt leaching

In irrigated areas where cover crop establishment can be assured, consequent soil or nutrient conservation could increase sustainability of cropping systems. Replacing bare fallow with cover crops may increase sustainability by enhancing soil aggregate stability, water retention capacity or controlling nitrate leaching. Nevertheless, adoption of cover crops increase evapotranspiration and reduce water percolation beyond the root systems; therefore, it could lead to salt accumulation in the upper soil layers. This study was conducted during four years to determine the effect of replacing bare fallow by a cover crop on soil salt accumulation and salt leaching in an irrigated maize production system.

Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated agriculture : testing DayCent with high-frequency measurements

A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

The use of F-specific coliphages to assess effluent treatment and reuse schemes

This study reports on the use of naturally occurring F-specific coliphages, as well as spiked MS-2 phage, to evaluate a land-based effluent treatment/reuse system and an effluent irrigation scheme. Both the natural phages and the spiked MS-2 phage indicated that the effluent treatment/reuse system (FILTER - Filtration and Irrigated cropping for Land Treatment and Effluent Reuse) achieved a reduction in phage levels over the treatment system by one to two log10. FILTER reduced natural F-specific phage numbers from around 103 to below 102 100-ml-1 and the spiked phage from 105 to around 104 100-ml-1 (incoming compared with outgoing water). In the effluent irrigation scheme, phage spiked into the holding ponds dropped from 106 to 102 100-ml-1 after 168 h (with no detectable levels of natural F-specific phage being found prior to spiking). Only low levels of the spiked phage (102 gm-1) could be recovered from soil irrigated with phage-spiked effluent (at 106 phage 100 ml-1) or from fruits (around 102 phage per fruit) that had direct contact with soil which had been freshly irrigated with the same phage-spiked effluent.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Emergy Assessment of a Wheat-Maize Rotation System with Different Water Assignments in the North China Plain

Sustainable water use is seriously compromised in the North China Plain (NCP) due to the huge water requirements of agriculture, the largest use of water resources. An integrated approach which combines the ecosystem model with emergy analysis is presented to determine the optimum quantity of irrigation for sustainable development in irrigated cropping systems. Since the traditional emergy method pays little attention to the dynamic interaction among components of the ecological system and dynamic emergy accounting is in its infancy, it is hard to evaluate the cropping system in hypothetical situations or in response to specific changes. In order to solve this problem, an ecosystem model (Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model) is introduced for emergy analysis to describe the production processes. Some raw data, collected by investigating or observing in conventional emergy analysis, may be calculated by the VIP model in the new approach. To demonstrate the advantage of this new approach, we use it to assess the wheat-maize rotation cropping system at different irrigation levels and derive the optimum quantity of irrigation according to the index of ecosystem sustainable development in NCP. The results show, the optimum quantity of irrigation in this region should be 240-330 mm per year in the wheat system and no irrigation in the maize system, because with this quantity of irrigation the rotation crop system reveals: best efficiency in energy transformation (transformity = 6.05E + 4 sej/J); highest sustainability (renewability = 25%); lowest environmental impact (environmental loading ratio = 3.5) and the greatest sustainability index (Emergy Sustainability Index = 0.47) compared with the system in other irrigation amounts. This study demonstrates that application of the new approach is broader than the conventional emergy analysis and the new approach is helpful in optimizing resources allocation, resource-savings and maintaining agricultural sustainability.

Sistemas intercalares com abacaxizeiro como alternativa de renda durante a formação de cafezais irrigados

O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o sistema de plantio de abacaxizeiro intercalado com cafeeiro que proporciona o maior retorno econômico, sem comprometer o desenvolvimento vegetativo e a produtividade de cafezal irrigado. Utilizou-se o delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições e dez plantas úteis por parcela. Os sistemas irrigados de cultivo consistiram em: duas e três fileiras simples de abacaxizeiro, nas entrelinhas do cafeeiro, ou quatro linhas em fileiras duplas. O desenvolvimento vegetativo do cafeeiro foi avaliado aos 6, 12 e 18 meses após o plantio, e a produtividade aos 28 meses. O cultivo de duas fileiras simples favoreceu o desenvolvimento do cafeeiro, e os demais sistemas não tiveram efeito sobre esse parâmetro. A produtividade do cafeeiro foi maior nos sistemas de cultivo com duas e três fileiras de abacaxi. Os três sistemas de cultivo apresentaram retornos econômicos positivos. O sistema intercalar com três fileiras simples proporciona o melhor retorno, sem comprometer o desenvolvimento vegetativo e a produtividade do cafeeiro.

Cover crops effect on farm benefits and nitrate leaching: Linking economic and environmental analysis.

Introducing cover crops (CC) interspersed with intensively fertilized crops in rotation has the potential to reduce nitrate leaching. This paper evaluates various strategies involving CC between maize and compares the economic and environmental results with respect to a typical maize?fallow rotation. The comparison is performed through stochastic (Monte-Carlo) simulation models of farms? profits using probability distribution functions (pdfs) of yield and N fertilizer saving fitted with data collected from various field trials and pdfs of crop prices and the cost of fertilizer fitted from statistical sources. Stochastic dominance relationships are obtained to rank the most profitable strategies from a farm financial perspective. A two-criterion comparison scheme is proposed to rank alternative strategies based on farm profit and nitrate leaching levels, taking the baseline scenario as the maize?fallow rotation. The results show that when CC biomass is sold as forage instead of keeping it in the soil, greater profit and less leaching of nitrates are achieved than in the baseline scenario. While the fertilizer saving will be lower if CC is sold than if it is kept in the soil, the revenue obtained from the sale of the CC compensates for the reduced fertilizer savings. The results show that CC would perhaps provide a double dividend of greater profit and reduced nitrate leaching in intensive irrigated cropping systems in Mediterranean regions.

Disponibilidade de fosforo no solo e estimativa de doses adequadas de adubacao fosfatada para o tomateiro no Submedio Sao Francisco.

Em Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo textura arenosa, do submedio Sao Francisco, avaliou-se a dispnibilidade de fosforo no solo extraido pelos extratores de Mehlich e Bray 1 e estimaram-se niveis adequados de adubacao fosfatada para o tomateiro rasteiro (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill) no periodo de 1982 a 1983. Diferentes niveis de fosforo no solo foram criados atraves da adicao previa de quantidades crescentes de fosfato sob a forma de superfosfato triplo. Obtiveram-se correlacoes significativas dos teores de fosforo no solo com os niveis de fosfato aplicado e a produtividade da cultura. Os teores de P no solo obtidos pelos extratores de Mehlich e Bray 1 foram classificados, respectivamente, nos seguintes niveis: muito baixo, inferiores a 5 ppm e 7 ppm; baixo, de 5 ppm a 10 ppm e 7 ppm a 12 ppm; medio, de 11 ppm a 16 ppm e 13 ppm a 18 ppm; alto, de 17 ppm a 29 ppm e 19 ppm a 31 ppm; e muito alto, superiores a 19 ppm e 31ppm. As doses estimadas de fosforo a serem aplicadas ao solo em sulco para obter a produtividade otima esperada seriam: 120, 100, 70, 30 e 0 kg/ha de P2O5 para os niveis muito baixo, baixo, medio, alto e muito alto, respectivamente.

High yielding irrigated grains in cotton cropping systems

Design, build and install twelve lysimeters at Kingsthorpe. Undertake deficit irrigation study using lysimeters at Kingsthorpe to determine the response of a wheat crop to deficit irrigation and full irrigation regimes. Prepare and present publications based on the field trials.

Nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated wheat in Australia : impact of irrigation management

Background and Aims: Irrigation management affects soil water dynamics as well as the soil microbial carbon and nitrogen turnover and potentially the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses (GHG). We present a study on the effect of three irrigation treatments on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from irrigated wheat on black vertisols in South-Eastern Queensland, Australia. Methods: Soil N2O fluxes from wheat were monitored over one season with a fully automated system that measured emissions on a sub-daily basis. Measurements were taken from 3 subplots for each treatment within a randomized split-plot design. Results: Highest N2O emissions occurred after rainfall or irrigation and the amount of irrigation water applied was found to influence the magnitude of these “emission pulses”. Daily N2O emissions varied from -0.74 to 20.46 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1 resulting in seasonal losses ranging from 0.43 to 0.75 kg N2O N ha-1 season -1 for the different irrigation treatments. Emission factors (EF = proportion of N fertilizer emitted as N2O) over the wheat cropping season, uncorrected for background emissions, ranged from 0.2 to 0.4% of total N applied for the different treatments. Highest seasonal N2O emissions were observed in the treatment with the highest irrigation intensity; however, the N2O intensity (N2O emission per crop yield) was highest in the treatment with the lowest irrigation intensity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that timing and amount of irrigation can effectively be used to reduce N2O losses from irrigated agricultural systems; however, in order to develop sustainable mitigation strategies the N2O intensity of a cropping system is an important concept that needs to be taken into account.

Enhancing the performance of irrigated cotton and grain in Central Queensland

R&D to facilitate incorporation of grain and pulse crop phases in Central Queensland irrigated cotton monoculture systems and improve profitability of regional cropping systems.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Gaseous and leaching losses of carbon and nitrogen in irrigated organic farming of a coastal oasis in Oman

In der Dissertation wurden die Effekte verschiedener C/N-Verhältnisse und verschiedener Verhältnisse von strukturellen zu löslichen Kohlenhydraten (NDF/SC) von Dung, der in bewässerten Gemüsekulturen im Norden Omans appliziert wurde, untersucht. Im auf sandigen Böden durchgeführten Experiment wurden zwei Büffeldungvarianten zum einen mit einem C/N-Verhältnis von 19 und einem NDF/SC-Verhältnis von 17 (ORG1) und zum anderen mit einem C/N-Verhältnis von 25 und einem NDF/SC-Verhältnis von 108 (ORG2) verwendet. Das relevante faktorielle Anbausystem war eine zweijährige Rotation, bestehend aus Rettich gefolgt von Blumenkohl und Karotte. Eine signifikante Zunahme der Erträge, des Sproßdurchmessers und der Pflanzenhöhe von Blumenkohl (P<0,001) sowie der Konzentration von Askorbinsäure in den Wurzeln von Rettich (P<0,01) mit erhöhter Verfügbarkeit von N, P und K von ORG2 über ORG1 bis hin zur Mineraldünger-Kontrollbehandlung (MIN) konnte festgestellt werden. Innerhalb von 260 Tagen wurden für die gesamte Anbauperiode mit einem photoakustischen Infrarot-Multigasmonitor und einer damit verbundenen Haube bodenbürtige Gasemissionen gemessen. Die errechneten Nettobilanzen zeigten Überschüsse von N und P, welche von Defiziten für K begleitet waren. Die Kohlenstoff Nettobilanzen waren während des Untersuchungszeitraums negativ oder nicht konsistent. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass unter extremen klimatischen Bedingungen bewässerter sandiger Böden organische Kultivierung zuerst durch den Kohlenstoffgehalt von Dung und Boden und erst dann durch die applizierten Mengen an N, P und K limitiert wird. Es konnte festgestellt werden, dass Gasemissionen den größten Teil der N und C Verluste von bewässerten sandigen Böden im Norden Omans darstellen. Die Reduzierung von Treibhausgasen und Sickerverlusten sollte weiterhin im Fokus zukünftiger Untersuchungen stehen, um zur Entwicklung von nachhaltigen organischen Anbausystemen im Oman und anderen ariden tropischen Ländern beizutragen.