Investor attention, analyst recommendation revisions, and stock prices

We provide evidence that investors underreact after analysts' recommendation upgrades; however, price reactions are faster after downgrades. We measure individual investors' attention using Google's search volume index. Our findings indicate that, after upgrades, stocks that enjoy greater individual investors' attention underreact significantly more compared to stocks that receive high level of attention from institutional investors. On the other hand, after recommendation downgrades, stocks with higher levels of prior attention from individual investors overreact and show a significantly greater price reversal compared to stocks that received high level of attention from institutional investors. Our results suggest that attentive individual investors may not be rational; hence investor attention and investor sophistication are important for price discovery in the market.

The Post-revision drift, analyst characteristics and investor attention

The aim of this dissertation is to provide a coherent explanation for the post-analyst recommendation drift. First, I find that the post-analyst recommendation drift is explained by the degree of attention paid by individual investors. Second I find that the extremeness and the credibility of information leads to changes in the degree of attention and a post-analyst recommendation drift. Finally, I find that the diffusion of private information contained in the analyst recommendation interacts with attention related biases leading to a post-recommendation drift.

The role of U.S. timberland in real estate portfolios

Timberland is seen as a long-term investment which has recently received increased institutional investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) timberland series, this paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of timberland in the United States over the period of 1987-2007. U.S. timberland is seen to have been a strongly performed asset class with significant portfolio diversification benefits over this period; with a significant portfolio role separate to that of real estate. However, recent years have seen reduced risk-adjusted returns, with some loss of portfolio diversification benefits of timberland with stocks and real estate. Global drivers are likely to see increased future demand for timberland investment.

Limited attention and investor disagreement: a nowcasting approach

When disagreement in economic models occurs due to different interpretations of public signals, the level of ``marketwide disagreement'' not necessarily decreases upon the arrival of a public signal. We propose an empirical assessment of this phenomenon. By using a measure of attention based on Google Trends, we show that an increase in the attention allocated by the market to a company is associated to a significant increase in disagreement about it.

Investor disagreement: the modern approach

Disagreement between economists is a well know fact. However, it took a long time for this concept to be incorporated in economic models. In this survey, we review the consequences and insights provided by recent models. Since disagreement between market agents can be generated through different hypotheses, the main differences between them are highlighted. Finally, this work concludes with a short review of nowcasting using google trends, emphasizing advances connecting both literatures.

Towards a literacy of attention

In 1997, business trend analyst Linda Stone proposed the term "continuous partial attention" to characterise the contemporary experience of wanting to be ‘a live node on the network’. She argued that while it can be a positive and functional behaviour, it also has the potential to be disabling, compromising reflective and creative thought. Subsequent studies have explored the ways in which technology has slowly disrupted the idea and experience of a "centred" and "bounded" self. Studies of ‘Gen Y’ show the ease with which young people accommodate this multiplying of the self as they negotiate their partial friendships and networks of interest with family and work. In teaching and learning circles in tertiary education we talk a lot about problems of student ‘disengagement’. In characterising our challenge this way, are we undermining our potential to understand the tendencies of contemporary learners? This paper begins a consideration of how traditional models, frameworks and practices might oppose these partially engaged but continuously connected and interpersonal "dividuals". What questions does this provoke for learning environments towards harnessing yet counterpointing the crisis students might experience; to recognise but also integrate their multiple selves towards what they aim to become through the process of learning?

Attention and memory bias for body image and health related information using an Emotional Stroop task in a non-clinical sample

It has been proposed that body image disturbance is a form of cognitive bias wherein schemas for self-relevant information guide the selective processing of appearancerelated information in the environment. This threatening information receives disproportionately more attention and memory, as measured by an Emotional Stroop and incidental recall task. The aim of this thesis was to expand the literature on cognitive processing biases in non-clinical males and females by incorporating a number of significant methodological refinements. To achieve this aim, three phases of research were conducted. The initial two phases of research provided preliminary data to inform the development of the main study. Phase One was a qualitative exploration of body image concerns amongst males and females recruited through the general community and from a university. Seventeen participants (eight male; nine female) provided information on their body image and what factors they saw as positively and negatively impacting on their self evaluations. The importance of self esteem, mood, health and fitness, and recognition of the social ideal were identified as key themes. These themes were incorporated as psycho-social measures and Stroop word stimuli in subsequent phases of the research. Phase Two involved the selection and testing of stimuli to be used in the Emotional Stroop task. Six experimental categories of words were developed that reflected a broad range of health and body image concerns for males and females. These categories were high and low calorie food words, positive and negative appearance words, negative emotion words, and physical activity words. Phase Three addressed the central aim of the project by examining cognitive biases for body image information in empirically defined sub-groups. A National sample of males (N = 55) and females (N = 144), recruited from the general community and universities, completed an Emotional Stroop task, incidental memory test, and a collection of psycho-social questionnaires. Sub-groups of body image disturbance were sought using a cluster analysis, which identified three sub-groups in males (Normal, Dissatisfied, and Athletic) and four sub-groups in females (Normal, Health Conscious, Dissatisfied, and Symptomatic). No differences were noted between the groups in selective attention, although time taken to colour name the words was associated with some of the psycho-social variables. Memory biases found across the whole sample for negative emotion, low calorie food, and negative appearance words were interpreted as reflecting the current focus on health and stigma against being unattractive. Collectively these results have expanded our understanding of processing biases in the general community by demonstrating that the processing biases are found within non-clinical samples and that not all processing biases are associated with negative functionality

Why is there a gender gap in children presenting for Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder services?

This study addressed why girls are less likely to be referred for mental health services for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) than boys. Ninety-six parents of children with elevated ADHD symptoms and 140 elementary school teachers read vignettes about children with ADHD. Half of the participants read vignettes with boys' names, and half read the same vignettes but with girls' names. Participants then rated their likeliness to seek or recommend services for the child in each vignette. Parents and teachers were less likely to seek or recommend services for girls than boys with ADHD, but results did not support the hypothesis that this is because girls are less disruptive than boys. Rather, differences in service seeking were explained by the fact that parents and teachers believed that learning assistance is less effective for girls than boys with ADHD.

Does lymphedema following breast cancer warrant clinical attention?

Secondary lymphedema (swelling) after breast cancer treatment usually develops on the hand, arm, shoulder, and/or breast on the treated side. It is commonly associated with the presence of other upper-body symptoms, such as pain and aching1; it impacts physical and psychosocial functioning and adversely influences quality of life.2 Moreover, it is considered incurable, progressive, and difficult to treat. Arguably, lymphedema is the most problematic and dreaded treatment-related complication of breast cancer.3

Human brain regions required for the dividing and switching of attention between two features of a single object

This combined PET and ERP study was designed to identify the brain regions activated in switching and divided attention between different features of a single object using matched sensory stimuli and motor response. The ERP data have previously been reported in this journal [64]. We now present the corresponding PET data. We identified partially overlapping neural networks with paradigms requiring the switching or dividing of attention between the elements of complex visual stimuli. Regions of activation were found in the prefrontal and temporal cortices and cerebellum. Each task resulted in different prefrontal cortical regions of activation lending support to the functional subspecialisation of the prefrontal and temporal cortices being based on the cognitive operations required rather than the stimuli themselves.

An exploration of varieties of visual attention : ERP findings

A set of five tasks was designed to examine dynamic aspects of visual attention: selective attention to color, selective attention to pattern, dividing and switching attention between color and pattern, and selective attention to pattern with changing target. These varieties of visual attention were examined using the same set of stimuli under different instruction sets; thus differences between tasks cannot be attributed to differences in the perceptual features of the stimuli. ERP data are presented for each of these tasks. A within-task analysis of different stimulus types varying in similarity to the attended target feature revealed that an early frontal selection positivity (FSP) was evident in selective attention tasks, regardless of whether color was the attended feature. The scalp distribution of a later posterior selection negativity (SN) was affected by whether the attended feature was color or pattern. The SN was largely unaffected by dividing attention across color and pattern. A large widespread positivity was evident in most conditions, consisting of at least three subcomponents which were differentially affected by the attention conditions. These findings are discussed in relation to prior research and the time course of visual attention processes in the brain.