Interval Oscillation for Second Order Nonlinear Differential Equations with a Damping Term

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34C10, 34C15.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Possibility of chaos in interval friction experiments of martensites

Wuttig and Suzuki's model on anelastic nonlinearities in solids in the vicinity of martensite transformations is analysed numerically. This model shows chaos even in the absence of applied forcing field as a function of a temperature dependent parameter. Even though the model exhibits sustained oscillations as a function of the amplitude of the forcing term, it does not exactly capture the features of the experimental time series. We have improved the model by adding a symmetry breaking term. The improved model shows period doubling bifurcation as a function of the amplitude of the forcing term. The solutions of our improved model shows good resemblance with the nonsymmetric period four oscillation seen in the experiment. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation : observation, modeling, and theory

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of intense rainfall and associated planetary-scale circulations in the tropical atmosphere, with a recurrence interval of 30-90 days. Although the MJO was first discovered 40 years ago, it is still a challenge to simulate the MJO in general circulation models (GCMs), and even with simple models it is difficult to agree on the basic mechanisms. This deficiency is mainly due to our poor understanding of moist convection—deep cumulus clouds and thunderstorms, which occur at scales that are smaller than the resolution elements of the GCMs. Moist convection is the most important mechanism for transporting energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Success in simulating the MJO will improve our understanding of moist convection and thereby improve weather and climate forecasting.

We address this fundamental subject by analyzing observational datasets, constructing a hierarchy of numerical models, and developing theories. Parameters of the models are taken from observation, and the simulated MJO fits the data without further adjustments. The major findings include: 1) the MJO may be an ensemble of convection events linked together by small-scale high-frequency inertia-gravity waves; 2) the eastward propagation of the MJO is determined by the difference between the eastward and westward phase speeds of the waves; 3) the planetary scale of the MJO is the length over which temperature anomalies can be effectively smoothed by gravity waves; 4) the strength of the MJO increases with the typical strength of convection, which increases in a warming climate; 5) the horizontal scale of the MJO increases with the spatial frequency of convection; and 6) triggered convection, where potential energy accumulates until a threshold is reached, is important in simulating the MJO. Our findings challenge previous paradigms, which consider the MJO as a large-scale mode, and point to ways for improving the climate models.

Centennial oscillation of the climatic crescendo during the last glacial maximum: evidence from Lake Estancia, central New Mexico

Sediments deposited in late Pleistocene Lake Estancia, central New Mexico, contain a paleoclimatic record that includes the last glacial maximum and deglacial episode. Stratigraphic reconstruction of an interval representing the highstand of the lake that occurred during the last glacial maximum reveals ~2000-, ~600-, and ~200-year oscillations in lake level and climate. Shifting position of the polar jetstream in response to expansion and contraction of the North American ice sheet may be partly responsible for the millenial-scale changes in Lake Estancia but probably does not explain the centennial-scale oscillations.

The response of phytoplankton to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Inter-annual variability in the timing of phytoplankton spring bloom and phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic Ocean was quantified using ocean color data and continuous plankton recorder (CPR) data. This variability was related to the North Atlantic Oscillation using correlation analysis and multivariate auto-regression models. The initiation of the spring bloom derived from CPR phytoplankton color index data is similar to that derived from satellite chlorophyll, and exhibits a nominal correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extrapolated spring bloom timing suggested later initiation of blooms in the mid-1980s and earlier initiation of blooms in the 1990s. The climatological phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic is dominated by diatoms, except for a shift in community composition favoring dinoflagellates in August. The ratio of diatoms to total phytoplankton abundance and the ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton abundance are both closely correlated with the NAO and SST. The extended time series of phytoplankton community structure between 1985 and 2009, deduced from the time series of SST and NAO over the same interval, showed a decadal shift away from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The linkages between the NAO, and changes in stratification and phytoplankton processes occur over a larger scale than previously observed.

Direct limits on the B-s(0) oscillation frequency

We report results of a study of the B-s(0) oscillation frequency using a large sample of B-s(0) semileptonic decays corresponding to approximately 1 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider in 2002-2006. The amplitude method gives a lower limit on the B-s(0) oscillation frequency at 14.8 ps(-1) at the 95% C.L. At Delta m(s)=19 ps(-1), the amplitude deviates from the hypothesis A=0 (1) by 2.5 (1.6) standard deviations, corresponding to a two-sided C.L. of 1% (10%). A likelihood scan over the oscillation frequency, Delta m(s), gives a most probable value of 19 ps(-1) and a range of 17 interval 16-22 ps(-1) is (5.0 +/- 0.3)%.

New Approach on Robust Delay-Dependent H∞ Control for Uncertain T-S Fuzzy Systems With Interval Time-Varying Delay

This paper investigates the robust H∞ control for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems with interval time-varying delay. By employing a new and tighter integral inequality and constructing an appropriate type of Lyapunov functional, delay-dependent stability criteria are derived for the control problem. Because neither any model transformation nor free weighting matrices are employed in our theoretical derivation, the developed stability criteria significantly improve and simplify the existing stability conditions. Also, the maximum allowable upper delay bound and controller feedback gains can be obtained simultaneously from the developed approach by solving a constrained convex optimization problem. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Deletion mapping suggests that the 1p22 melanoma susceptibility gene is a tumor suppressor localized to a 9-Mb interval

Loss of the short arm of chromosome 1 is frequently observed in many tumor types, including melanoma. We recently localized a third melanoma susceptibility locus to chromosome band 1p22. Critical recombinants in linked families localized the gene to a 15-Mb region between D1S430 and D1S2664. To map the locus more finely we have performed studies to assess allelic loss across the region in a panel of melanomas from 1p22-linked families, sporadic melanomas, and melanoma cell lines. Eighty percent of familial melanomas exhibited loss of heterozygosity (LOH) within the region, with a smallest region of overlapping deletions (SRO) of 9 Mb between D1S207 and D1S435. This high frequency of LOH makes it very likely that the susceptibility locus is a tumor suppressor. In sporadic tumors, four SROs were defined. SRO1 and SRO2 map within the critical recombinant and familial tumor region, indicating that one or the other is likely to harbor the susceptibility gene. However, SRO3 may also be significant because it overlaps with the markers with the highest 2-point LOD score (D1S2776), part of the linkage recombinant region, and the critical region defined in mesothelioma. The candidate genes PRKCL2 and GTF2B, within SRO2, and TGFBR3, CDC7, and EVI5, in a broad region encompassing SRO3, were screened in 1p22-linked melanoma kindreds, but no coding mutations were detected. Allelic loss in melanoma cell lines was significantly less frequent than in fresh tumors, indicating that this gene may not be involved late in progression, such as in overriding cellular senescence, necessary for the propagation of melanoma cells in culture.