Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

La mesure alternative d’hostilité dans les relations de rivalité interacteur.

Le présent travail explore le phénomène de la rivalité interétatique1 et les mesures de son intensité. Chacune des définitions existantes de la rivalité fait la lumière sur l’une de ses caractéristiques. La rivalité durable met l’accent sur la compétition militarisée, la rivalité stratégique accorde une importance particulière à la perception de l’ennemi, tandis que la rivalité interétatique est axée sur les questions autour desquelles la compétition se déroule. Ces visions différentes du phénomène de la rivalité laissent leur empreinte sur son opérationnalisation et sur le choix des paramètres visant à le capter. Nous réunissons ces trois interprétations dans une seule définition de rivalité interacteur, en proposant une nouvelle classification des actions hostiles, ainsi que la mesure alternative d’hostilité fondée sur la fréquence de ces dernières. Les quatre études de cas suivantes nous ont permis d’atteindre ces objectifs : les relations de rivalité entre l’Afghanistan et le Pakistan, entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, entre le Bélize et le Guatemala, ainsi qu’entre la Somalie et l’Éthiopie.

La mesure alternative d’hostilité dans les relations de rivalité interacteur

Le présent travail explore le phénomène de la rivalité interétatique1 et les mesures de son intensité. Chacune des définitions existantes de la rivalité fait la lumière sur l’une de ses caractéristiques. La rivalité durable met l’accent sur la compétition militarisée, la rivalité stratégique accorde une importance particulière à la perception de l’ennemi, tandis que la rivalité interétatique est axée sur les questions autour desquelles la compétition se déroule. Ces visions différentes du phénomène de la rivalité laissent leur empreinte sur son opérationnalisation et sur le choix des paramètres visant à le capter. Nous réunissons ces trois interprétations dans une seule définition de rivalité interacteur, en proposant une nouvelle classification des actions hostiles, ainsi que la mesure alternative d’hostilité fondée sur la fréquence de ces dernières. Les quatre études de cas suivantes nous ont permis d’atteindre ces objectifs : les relations de rivalité entre l’Afghanistan et le Pakistan, entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, entre le Bélize et le Guatemala, ainsi qu’entre la Somalie et l’Éthiopie.

Binocular rivalry and the cerebral hemispheres with a note on the correlates and constitution of visual consciousness

In addressing the scientific study of consciousness, Crick and Koch state, "It is probable that at any moment some active neuronal processes in your head correlate with consciousness, while others do not: what is the difference between them?" (1998, p. 97). Evidence from electrophysiological and brain-imaging studies of binocular rivalry supports the premise of this statement and answers to some extent, the question posed. I discuss these recent developments and outline the rationale and experimental evidence for the interhemispheric switch hypothesis of perceptual rivalry. According to this model, the perceptual alternations of rivalry reflect hemispheric alternations, suggesting that visual consciousness of rivalling stimuli may be unihemispheric at any one time (Miller et al., 2000). However, in this paper, I suggest that interhemispheric switching could involve alternating unihemispheric attentional selection of neuronal processes for access to visual consciousness. On this view, visual consciousness during rivalry could be bihemispheric because the processes constitutive of attentional selection may be distinct from those constitutive of visual consciousness. This is a special case of the important distinction between the neuronal correlates and constitution of visual consciousness.

Sibling rivalry and vocal negotiation in the barn owl Tyto alba

Chez les animaux, les jeunes dépendant des parents durant leur développement sont en compétition pour obtenir la nourriture, qu'ils quémandent par des cris et postures ostentatoires et se disputent physiquement. Les frères et soeurs n'ont pas la même compétitivité, en particulier s'ils diffèrent en âge, et leur niveau de faim fluctue dans le temps. Comme dans tout type de compétition, chacun doit ajuster son investissement aux rivaux, c'est à dire aux besoins et comportements de ses frères et soeurs. Dans le contexte de la famille, selon la théorie de sélection de parentèle, les jeunes bénéficient de leur survie mutuelle et donc de la propagation de la part de gènes qu'ils ont en commun. L'hypothèse de la « négociation frères-soeurs » prédit que, sous certaines conditions, les jeunes négocient entre eux la nourriture, ce qui réduit les coûts de compétition et permet de favoriser les frères et soeurs les plus affamés. La littérature actuelle se focalise sur les signaux de quémande entre enfants et parents et les interactions compétitives frères-soeurs sont étudiées principalement au sein de paires, alors que les nichées ou portées en comprennent souvent de nombreux. Cette thèse vise à mieux comprendre comment et jusqu'à quel point plusieurs jeunes ajustent mutuellement leurs signaux de besoin. C'est une question importante, étant donné que cela influence la répartition de nourriture entre eux, donc la résolution du conflit qui les oppose et à terme leur valeur évolutive. Le modèle d'étude est la chouette effraie (Tyto alba), chez laquelle jusqu'à neufs poussins émettent des milliers de cris chacun par nuit. Ils négocieraient entre eux la prochaine proie indivisible rapportée au nid avant que les parents ne reviennent : un poussin affamé crie plus qu'un autre moins affamé, ce qui dissuade ce dernier de crier en retour et par la suite de quémander la nourriture aux parents. L'investissement optimal correspondrait donc à écarter son frère en permanence vu que l'arrivée des parents est imprévisible, mais à moindre coût. Dans un premier axe, nous avons exploré au sein de dyades les mécanismes acoustiques permettant aux poussins de doser leur effort vocal durant les heures de compétition où ils sont laissés seuls au nid. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins évitent de crier simultanément, ce qui optimiserait la discrimination du nombre et de la durée de leurs cris, lesquels reflètent de façon honnête leur niveau de faim et donc leur motivation. L'alternance des cris paraît particulièrement adaptée au fait que les poussins se fient à des variations temporelles subtiles dans le rythme et la durée de leurs vocalisations pour prendre la parole. En particulier, allonger ses cris tout en criant moins dissuade efficacement le rival de répondre, ce qui permet de monopoliser la parole dans de longs « monologues ». Ces règles seraient universelles puisqu'elles ne dépendent pas de la séniorité, de la faim, ni de la parenté et les poussins répondent à un playback de façon similaire à un vrai frère. Tous ces résultats apportent la première preuve expérimentale que les juvéniles communiquent de façon honnête sur leurs besoins, ajustent activement le rythme de leurs cris et utilisent des composantes multiples de leurs vocalisations d'une façon qui réduit le coût de la compétition. De plus, il s'agit de la première démonstration que des règles de conversation régissent de longs échanges vocaux chez les animaux de façon comparable aux règles basiques observées chez l'Homme. Dans un second axe, nous avons exploré les stratégies comportementales que les poussins adoptent pour rivaliser avec plusieurs frères et soeurs, par le biais d'expériences de playback. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins mémorisent des asymétries de compétitivité entre deux individus qui dialoguent et répondent plus agressivement au moins compétitif une fois qu'ils sont confrontés à chacun isolément. Dans la même ligne, quand ils entendent un nombre variable d'individus criant à un taux variable, les poussins investissent le plus contre des rivaux moins nombreux et moins motivés. En accord avec les prédictions des modèles théoriques, les poussins de chouette effraie escaladent donc les conflits pour lesquels leur chance de gagner contrebalance le plus l'énergie dépensée. Nous révélons ainsi que 1) les jeunes frères et soeurs 'espionnent' les interactions de leurs rivaux pour évaluer leur compétitivité relative, ce qui est sans doute moins coûteux qu'une confrontation directe avec chacun, et 2) dosent leur investissement vocal en fonction du nombre de rivaux actuellement en compétition et de leur motivation de façon concomitante. Ces résultats montrent que les interactions entre frères et soeurs au nid reposent sur des mécanismes similaires à ceux observés, mais encore de façon anecdotique, chez les adultes non apparentés qui se disputent les territoires et partenaires sexuels. Cette thèse souligne donc combien il est crucial de considérer dorénavant la famille comme un réseau de communication à part entière pour mieux comprendre comment les jeunes résolvent les conflits autour du partage des ressources parentales. Plus généralement, elle révèle l'importance de la dynamique temporelle des vocalisations dans les conflits et la communication des animaux. A la lumière de nos résultats, la chouette effraie apparaît comme un modèle clé pour de futures recherches sur la résolution des conflits et la communication acoustique. - In species with parental care, offspring contest priority access to food by begging through conspicuous postures and vocalisations and by physically jockeying. Siblings differ in their competitiveness, especially in the case of age and size hierarchies, and their hunger level fluctuates in time. As in competition in general, each individual should adjust its investment to opponents that is to say to its siblings' needs and behaviours. In the particular context of family, according to kin selection theory, siblings derive extra fitness benefits from their mutual survival and hence the spreading of the genes they share. The "sibling negotiation" predicts that, under certain conditions, young would negotiate among them priority access to food, which reduces competition costs and enables promoting the most hungry siblings. To date, the literature focuses on signals of need between parents and offspring and competitive interactions (in particular among siblings) are mostly studied within pairwise interactions, yet they commonly involve more numerous rivals. This PhD aims at better understanding how and the extent to which several young siblings compete through signalling. This is important since this influences how food is allocated among them, thus the outcome of sibling rivalry and ultimately their fitness. I use the barn owl (Tyto alba) as a model, in which the one to nine nestlings emit a simple noisy call thousands of times per night. Thereby, they would negotiate among them priority access to the indivisible food next delivered prior to parents' feeding visits. A hungry nestling emits more calls than a less hungry sibling, which deters it to call in return and ultimately beg food at parents. The optimal investment thus corresponds to constantly deterring the rival to compete, given that parents' arrival is unpredictable, but at the lowest costs. In the first axis of my thesis, we explored within dyads the acoustic mechanisms by which owlets dose vocal effort when competing during the hours they are left alone. We found that owlets avoid overlapping each other's calls. This would enhance the discrimination of both call number and duration, which honestly reflect individuals' hunger level and hence motivation to compete. Such antiphony seems best adapted to the fact that siblings actually use subtle temporal variations in the rhythm and duration of their calls to take or give their turn. Owlets alternate monologs, in which lengthening calls efficiently deters the rival to respond while reducing call number. Such rules depend neither on seniority, hunger level nor kinship since nestlings responded similarly to a live sibling and an unrelated playback individual. Taken together, these findings provide the first experimental proof that dependent young honestly communicate about their need, actively adjust the timing of their calls and use multicomponent signals in a way that reduces vocal costs. Moreover, this is the first demonstration of conversational rules underlying animal long-lasting vocal exchanges comparable to the basic turn-taking signals observed in humans. In the second axis, we focused on the behavioural strategies owlets adopt to compete with more than one sibling, using playback experiments. We found that singleton bystanders memorised competitive asymmetries between two playback individuals dialoguing and responded more aggressively to the submissive one once they later faced each of both alone. Moreover, when hearing a varying number of nestlings calling at varying rates, owlets vocally invested the most towards fewer and less motivated rivals. In line with predictions from models on conflict settlement, barn owls thus escalate contests in which their chance of winning best counterbalances the energy spent. These results reveal that young socially eavesdrop on their siblings' interactions to assess their relative competitiveness at likely lower costs than direct confrontation, and dose vocal effort relative to both their number and motivation. This shows that young siblings' interactions imply mechanisms similar to those observed, yet still anecdotally, in unrelated adults that contest mates and territories. This PhD therefore highlights how crucial it is to further consider family as a communication network to better understand how siblings resolve conflicts over the share of parental resources. More generally, it provides important insights into the role of the temporal dynamics of signalling during animal contests and communication. In the light of our findings, the barn owl emerges as a key model for future research on conflict resolution and acoustic communication in animals.

Record of Decision, Council Bluffs Interstate System(I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project, October 15, 2005

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) approves the selection of the Reconstruction of All or Part of the Interstate (Construction Alternative) as the Preferred Alternative to provide improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 to east of the Interstate 480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska. The study considered long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing.

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project, February 28, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing to improve the interstate system around Council Bluffs with improvements extending across the Missouri River on I-80 to east of the I-480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska, see Figure 1-1. The study considers long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along I-80, I-29, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Environmental Assessment, March 14, 2011

This Tier 2 Environmental Assessment (EA) presents the results of studies and analysis conducted to determine the potential impacts of proposed improvements in Segment 3 of the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) in the Council Bluffs metropolitan area. This document is tiered to the Tier 1 Draft and Final Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) that evaluated impacts of the overall CBIS Improvements Project, which includes five segments of independent utility This EA on Segment 3 of the Project is divided into the following sections: and encompasses 18 mainline miles of Interstate and 14 interchanges along Interstate 80 (I-80), Interstate 29 (I-29), and Interstate 480 (I-480).

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Final Environment Impact Statement, July, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 (I-80) to east of the Interstate 480 (I-480) interchange in Omaha, Nebraska (see Figure 1-1). The study considers long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs.

Iowa Interstate Rest Area Stabilization Ponds, September 1979

This report is presented in two parts . P a r t I takes a new look at the design of rest area stabilization ponds after nearly 10 years' experience with some of the existing ponds and in the light of new design standards issued by Iowa DEQ. The Iowa DOT is embarking on improvements t o the ponds a t some of the r e s t areas. These improvements may include installation of drainage tile around the ponds to lower the water table below the pond bottom, sealing of the ponds with bentonite clay to reduce the infiltration to limits recently established by Iowa DEQ, and the enlargement of the ponds installation of aeration equipment t o increase the pond capacity. As the Iowa DOT embarks on this improvement program, it behooves them t o make only the improvements that are absolutely necessary to achieve waste water treatment goals. These ponds are subject to an extremely seasonal load and thus the ordinary standards used for pond design are not appropriate. Thus, Part I of the report presents a rationale for design and operation of the ponds which is deemed appropriate for t h e i r unique seasonally loaded character. Part I1 of the report looks a t the feasibility of using wind power for the aeration of the ponds, if and when aeration is deemed necessary.

Annual Average Daily Traffic on the Interstate System, 2010

Vehicle Traffic Map produced by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

Interstate Highway Map Indicating Vertical Clearance, May 15, 2011

The State of Iowa [STATE] and the Iowa Department of Transportation [IDOT] hereby is claim any warranty of any kind, express or implied, in reference to the information contained herein. The STATE and the IDOT neither assume nor authorize any person to assume for the STATE or the IDOT any liability in connection with the information contained herein, and there are no oral agreements or warranties regarding the information contained herein. Each and every person is hereby notified that the vertical clearances specified herein are subject to change due to resurfacing, surface buckling, weather conditions, or any other event. It is the responsibility of each and every vehicle operator to ascertain whether sufficient ACTUAL vertical clearance exists to move his vehicle or motor vehicle between the roadway and the underpasses and bridges listed herein. The May 15 date on this map reflects the end of the update schedule for the previous calendar year. Any vertical clearance restrictions which could or may change AFTER this date will not be reflected on this map. For the latest information on vertical clearance restrictions call the Office of Motor Carrier Services in Ankeny, (515) 237-3264 or visit http://www.iowadot.gov/mvd/omcs.