Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Splines in Numerical Integration

AMS Subj. Classification: 65D07, 65D30.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Modelagem das trajetórias médias do peso vivo e do rendimento de carcaça de tilápias do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus) por meio de funções B-spline

Employing the method of least squares and quadratic B-spline polynomials, different statistical models were tested to identify the most appropriate to model the mean trajectories of live weight and carcass yield of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Data of live weight (8,758) and carcass yield (2,042) of tilapias with ages between 106 and 245 days were obtained from 72 families derived from 36 males and 72 females. The sex and tank variables were considered as classificatory and the coefficients of quadratic polynomials B-spline of two to five intervals of the same size were used as covariables. According to most fit criteria used, the models with quadratic B-spline polynomial with five intervals of the same size presented the best adjustments. The increase in number of intervals of B-spline polynomial improved the fit of the polynomials to the data. The inclusion of classificatory effects from sex, tank, the interaction of these effects and the quadratic polynomial B-spline nested in this interaction indicated that, over time, each sex, grown in different tank, presented different mean trajectory, necessitating the inclusion of nesting time in the interaction sex x tank in order to avoid the under or overestimation of breeding values of the selection candidates in breeding programs of this species.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Modulational Instability in Periodic Quadratic Nonlinear Materials

We investigate the modulational instability of plane waves in quadratic nonlinear materials with linear and nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings. Exact Floquet calculations, confirmed by numerical simulations, show that the periodicity can drastically alter the gain spectrum but never completely removes the instability. The low-frequency part of the gain spectrum is accurately predicted by an averaged theory and disappears for certain gratings. The high-frequency part is related to the inherent gain of the homogeneous non-phase-matched material and is a consistent spectral feature.

Theory of modulational instability in Bragg gratings with quadratic nonlinearity

Modulational instability in optical Bragg gratings with a quadratic nonlinearity is studied. The electric field in such structures consists of forward and backward propagating components at the fundamental frequency and its second harmonic. Analytic continuous wave (CW) solutions are obtained, and the intricate complexity of their stability, due to the large number of equations and number of free parameters, is revealed. The stability boundaries are rich in structures and often cannot be described by a simple relationship. In most cases, the CW solutions are unstable. However, stable regions are found in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation limit, and also when the grating strength for the second harmonic is stronger than that of the first harmonic. Stable CW solutions usually require a low intensity. The analysis is confirmed by directly simulating the governing equations. The stable regions found have possible applications in second-harmonic generation and dark solitons, while the unstable regions maybe useful in the generation of ultrafast pulse trains at relatively low intensities. [S1063-651X(99)03005-6].

Phase diagram for a class of spin-1/2 Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice, and the linear-chain limits

We study the spin-1/2 Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations, and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual two-sublattice Neel phase, a three-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wave vector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical. [S0163-1829(99)10421-1].

Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

Spatiotemporal solitons in multidimensional optical media with a quadratic nonlinearity

We consider solutions to the second-harmonic generation equations in two-and three-dimensional dispersive media in the form of solitons localized in space and time. As is known, collapse does not take place in these models, which is why the solitons may be stable. The general solution is obtained in an approximate analytical form by means of a variational approach, which also allows the stability of the solutions to be predicted. Then, we directly simulate the two-dimensional case, taking the initial configuration as suggested by the variational approximation. We thus demonstrate that spatiotemporal solitons indeed exist and are stable. Furthermore, they are not, in the general case, equivalent to the previously known cylindrical spatial solitons. Direct simulations generate solitons with some internal oscillations. However, these oscillations neither grow nor do they exhibit any significant radiative damping. Numerical solutions of the stationary version of the equations produce the same solitons in their unperturbed form, i.e., without internal oscillations. Strictly stable solitons exist only if the system has anomalous dispersion at both the fundamental harmonic and second harmonic (SH), including the case of zero dispersion at SH. Quasistationary solitons, decaying extremely slowly into radiation, are found in the presence of weak normal dispersion at the second-harmonic frequency.

Automatic modeling of an orthotic bracing for nonoperative correction of PectusCarinatum

Pectus Carinatum is a deformity of the chest wall, characterized by an anterior protrusion of the sternum, often corrected surgically due to cosmetic motivation. This work presents an alternative approach to the current open surgery option, proposing a novel technique based on a personalized orthosis. Two different processes for the orthosis’ personalization are presented. One based on a 3D laser scan of the patient chest, followed by the reconstruction of the thoracic wall mesh using a radial basis function, and a second one, based on a computer tomography scan followed by a neighbouring cells algorithm. The axial position where the orthosis is to be located is automatically calculated using a Ray-Triangle intersection method, whose outcome is input to a pseudo Kochenek interpolating spline method to define the orthosis curvature. Results show that no significant differences exist between the patient chest physiognomy and the curvature angle and size of the orthosis, allowing a better cosmetic outcome and less initial discomfort

Real-time 3D interactive segmentation of echocardiographic data through user-based deformation of B-spline explicit active surfaces

Image segmentation is an ubiquitous task in medical image analysis, which is required to estimate morphological or functional properties of given anatomical targets. While automatic processing is highly desirable, image segmentation remains to date a supervised process in daily clinical practice. Indeed, challenging data often requires user interaction to capture the required level of anatomical detail. To optimize the analysis of 3D images, the user should be able to efficiently interact with the result of any segmentation algorithm to correct any possible disagreement. Building on a previously developed real-time 3D segmentation algorithm, we propose in the present work an extension towards an interactive application where user information can be used online to steer the segmentation result. This enables a synergistic collaboration between the operator and the underlying segmentation algorithm, thus contributing to higher segmentation accuracy, while keeping total analysis time competitive. To this end, we formalize the user interaction paradigm using a geometrical approach, where the user input is mapped to a non-cartesian space while this information is used to drive the boundary towards the position provided by the user. Additionally, we propose a shape regularization term which improves the interaction with the segmented surface, thereby making the interactive segmentation process less cumbersome. The resulting algorithm offers competitive performance both in terms of segmentation accuracy, as well as in terms of total analysis time. This contributes to a more efficient use of the existing segmentation tools in daily clinical practice. Furthermore, it compares favorably to state-of-the-art interactive segmentation software based on a 3D livewire-based algorithm.

Automatic modeling of an orthotic bracing for nonoperative correction of pectus carinatum

Pectus Carinatum is a deformity of the chest wall, characterized by an anterior protrusion of the sternum, often corrected surgically due to cosmetic motivation. This work presents an alternative approach to the current open surgery option, proposing a novel technique based on a personalized orthosis. Two different processes for the orthosis’ personalization are presented. One based on a 3D laser scan of the patient chest, followed by the reconstruction of the thoracic wall mesh using a radial basis function, and a second one, based on a computer tomography scan followed by a neighbouring cells algorithm. The axial position where the orthosis is to be located is automatically calculated using a Ray-Triangle intersection method, whose outcome is input to a pseudo Kochenek interpolating spline method to define the orthosis curvature. Results show that no significant differences exist between the patient chest physiognomy and the curvature angle and size of the orthosis, allowing a better cosmetic outcome and less initial discomfort.

Optimal design of piezolaminated structures using B-spline strip finite element models

A package of B-spline finite strip models is developed for the linear analysis of piezolaminated plates and shells. This package is associated to a global optimization technique in order to enhance the performance of these types of structures, subjected to various types of objective functions and/or constraints, with discrete and continuous design variables. The models considered are based on a higher-order displacement field and one can apply them to the static, free vibration and buckling analyses of laminated adaptive structures with arbitrary lay-ups, loading and boundary conditions. Genetic algorithms, with either binary or floating point encoding of design variables, were considered to find optimal locations of piezoelectric actuators as well as to determine the best voltages applied to them in order to obtain a desired structure shape. These models provide an overall economy of computing effort for static and vibration problems.

Scheduling of head-dependent cascaded hydro systems: Mixed-integer quadratic programming approach

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro, scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent cascaded hydro systems. We propose a novel mixed-integer quadratic programming approach, considering not only head-dependency, but also discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Thus, an enhanced short-term hydro scheduling is provided due to the more realistic modeling presented in this paper. Numerical results from two case studies, based on Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, illustrate the proficiency of the proposed approach.