Evaluation of selected recurrence measures in discriminating pre-ictal and inter-ictal periods from epileptic EEG data

7 pages, 4 figures Acknowledgement We are grateful to M. Riedl and G. Ansmann for fruitful discussions and critical comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. This work was supported by the Volkswagen Foundation (Grant Nos. 88461, 88462, 88463, 85390, 85391 and 85392).

Abrupt shifts in the Gironde fish community: an indicator of ecological changes in an estuarine ecosystem

For decades, global climate change has directly and indirectly affected the structure and function of ecosystems. Abrupt changes in biodiversity have been observed in response to linear or sudden modifications to the environment. These abrupt shifts can cause long-term reorganizations within ecosystems, with communities exhibiting new functional responses to environmental factors. Over the last 3 decades, the Gironde estuary in southwest France has experienced 2 abrupt shifts in both the physical and chemical environments and the pelagic community. Rather than describing these shifts and their origins, we focused on the 3 inter-shift periods, describing the structure of the fish community and its relationship with the environment during these periods. We described fish biodiversity using a limited set of descriptors, taking into account both species composition and relative species abundances. Inter-shift ecosystem states were defined based on the relationship between this description and the hydro-physico-chemical variables and climatic indices defining the main features of the environment. This relationship was described using generalized linear mixed models on the entire time series and for each inter-shift period. Our results indicate that (1) the fish community structure has been significantly modified, (2) environmental drivers influencing fish diversity have changed during these 3 periods, and (3) the fish-environment relationships have been modified over time. From this, we conclude a regime shift has occurred in the Gironde estuary. We also highlight that anthropogenic influences have increased, which re-emphasizes the importance of local management in maintaining fish diversity and associated goods and services within the context of climate change.

The revival of international solidarity : the Internationale Arbeiterhilfe, Willi Münzenberg and the Comintern in Weimar Germany, 1921-1933

The aim of the study is to write the first comprehensive history of the Internationale Arbeiterhilfe (International Workers’ Relief) and its message of international solidarity during the Weimar Republic, 1921–1933. The Arbeiterhilfe was the Communist International’s (Comintern) primary international solidarity organisation of the time. The work is identified as a contribution to the transnational history of the interwar period as its main focus is not on governmental politics or intra-state relations, but is focused on the transnational world of an international organisation. The history of the Arbeiterhilfe provides the main springboard from which to write a contextually-based analysis of international solidarity during the Weimar Republic. The study highlights for the first time the importance of the German communist Willi Münzenberg (1889–1940), as the leader of the Arbeiterhilfe, in the history of international solidarity. The main question of this study is how an explicit use of language coupled with the visualisation and practices of solidarity were created through the Arbeiterhilfe. How was solidarity actually envisaged, organised and brought to life by the Arbeiterhilfe in Weimar Germany? How did its expressions of solidarity change over time? Throughout the thesis, the changing and complex character of solidarity is analysed. How was the Arbeiterhilfe’s message of solidarity created and changed in relation to the Comintern and the Soviet Union’s policies? How did the Arbeiterhilfe create a new culture of international solidarity thought film, cinema, illustrated newspapers and the organising of mass spectacles of international solidarity? The Arbeiterhilfe had its international headquarters in Berlin which functioned as the base, one could argue, for some of the inter-war period’s most spectacular solidarity campaigns. The Arbeiterhilfe constitutes a significant case study of an early international organisation as it was one of the first international organisations for global (albeit not universal) international solidarity which had unparalleled prospects to develop new transnational identifications and social ties. It could consequently be suggested that the Arbeiterhilfe in several ways could be perceived as a predecessor to several post-1945 transnational solidarity organisations and International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs).

Omläggning av skiftgång

The digital printing market is changing faster now than before and the ability to adjust to newsituations has become more importat to a printing company. An efficient internal communicationis essential. At Elanders Digitaltryck a decision was made in august 2002 to look over the shiftworking system for the printer operators. In this paper, an investigation of the possibilities tochange the existing system to a better one was made.The project resultet in four different timetabels. The construction was based on theoretical studiesand an analysis of the current situation at the workplace. The analysis showed that a strong resistanseagainst a change of the working hours exists among the workers and that this should beconsidered before a decision is made. An analasys of the printers counters shows that they areused more efficient during shorter shift periods compared to the longer ones. A closeer look at theabcense due to sickness shows that it is relatively high but no connection between abcense andworking hours could be made.Working hours is a sensitive issue and should be treated with care. It is important that the workersare well informed and preferly involved in the development of a new timetable.

The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola

A World Health Organization expert meeting on Ebola vaccines proposed urgent safety and efficacy studies in response to the outbreak in West Africa. One approach to communicable disease control is ring vaccination of individuals at high risk of infection due to their social or geographical connection to a known case. This paper describes the protocol for a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design which uses ring vaccination.In the Ebola ça suffit ring vaccination trial, rings are randomised 1:1 to (a) immediate vaccination of eligible adults with single dose vaccination or (b) vaccination delayed by 21 days. Vaccine efficacy against disease is assessed in participants over equivalent periods from the day of randomisation. Secondary objectives include vaccine effectiveness at the level of the ring, and incidence of serious adverse events.Ring vaccination trials are adaptive, can be run until disease elimination, allow interim analysis, and can go dormant during inter-epidemic periods.

The manufacture and utilisation of architectural terracotta and faience.

The revival of terracotta and faience in British architecture was widespread, dramatic in its results and, for two decades, the subject of intense debate. However the materials have been frequently denigrated and more generally disregarded by both architects and historians. This study sets out to record and explain the rise and fall of interest in terracotta and faience, the extent and nature of the industry and the range of architectural usage in the Victorian, Edwardian and inter-war periods. The first two chapters record the faltering use of terracotta as an 'artificial stone', until the material gained its own identity, largely through the appreciation of Italian architecture. In the mid-Victorian period, terracotta will be seen to have become symbolic of the philosophy of the Victoria and Albert Museum and its Art School in attempting to reform both architecture and the decorative arts. The adoption of terracotta was furthered as much by industrial as aesthetic factors; three chapters examine how the exploitation of coal-measure clays, developments in the processes of manufacture, the changing motivation of industrialists and differing economics of production served to promote and then to hinder expansion and adaptation. The practical values of economy, durability and fire-resistance and the aesthetic potential, seen in terms of colour and decorative and sculptural modelling, became inter-related in the work of the architects who made extensive use of architectural ceramics. A correlation emerges between the free Gothic style, exemplified by the designs of Alfred Waterhouse and the use of red terracotta supplied from Ruabon, and between the eclectic Renaissance style and a buff material produced by different manufacturers.These patterns were modified as a result of the adoption of faience for facing external walls as well as interiors, and because of the new architectural requirements and tastes of the twentieth century. The general timidity in exploiting the scope for polychromatic decoration and the increasing opposition to architectural ceramics is contrasted with the most successful schemes produced for cinemas, chain-stores and factories. In the last chapter, those undertaken by the Hathern Station Brick and Terracotta Company between 1896 and 1939 are used as a case study; they confirm that manufacturers, architects and clients were all committed to creating a modern and yet decorative architecture, appropriate for new building types and that would appeal to and be comprehensible to the public.

Effects of naps at work on the sleepiness of 12-hour night shift nursing personnel

Background and objective: The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of a nap at work on the sleepiness of 12-hour, night-shift (registered and assistant) nursing personnel.Methods: Twelve nurses filled out daily logs, the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KS), and wore wrist actigraphs for two periods of four continuous days.Results: Mean nap duration during the night shifts was 138.3 (SD+39.8) minutes. The mean sleepiness level assessed by the KS score was lower, 3.3 (SD±1.6), when the nap was taken during the first span (00:01 - 03:00h) of the night shift, compared with 6.6 (SD±1.0) when there was no nap. The mean sleepiness level assessed by the KS score was also lower, 3.6 (SD±0.9), when the nap was taken during the second span (03:01 - 06:00h) of the night shift, compared with 7.0 (SD±1.1) when there was no nap. Thus, napping either during the first or second part of the night shift reduces sleepiness of 12-hour, night-shift nursing personnel. Moreover, the mean duration of the first sleep episode after night work was longer in those who did not nap than in those who did. Conclusions: The results of this study show that napping during the 12-hour, night-shift results in less sleepiness at work and less need for recovery sleep after work

Estudo da variabilidade inter-anual de diferentes regimes de vento

Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Chromosomal rearrangements and gene flow over time in an inter-specific hybrid zone of the Sorex araneus group.

Most hybrid zones have existed for hundreds or thousands of years but have generally been observed for only a short time period. Studies extending over periods long enough to track evolutionary changes in the zones or assess the ultimate outcome of hybridization are scarce. Here, we describe the evolution over time of the level of genetic isolation between two karyotypically different species of shrews (Sorex araneus and Sorex antinorii) at a hybrid zone located in the Swiss Alps. We first evaluated hybrid zone movement by contrasting patterns of gene flow and changes in cline parameters (centre and width) using 24 microsatellite loci, between two periods separated by 10 years apart. Additionally, we tested the role of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow by analysing microsatellite loci located on both rearranged and common chromosomes to both species. We did not detect any movement of the hybrid zone during the period analysed, suggesting that the zone is a typical tension zone. However, the gene flow was significantly lower among the rearranged than the common chromosomes for the second period, whereas the difference was only marginally significant for the first period. This further supports the role of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow between these taxa.

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes.

Nutritional and feeding ecology in the Cory"s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea).

In birds, parents adjust their feeding behaviour according to breeding duties, which ultimately may lead to seasonal adjustments in nutritional physiology and hematology over the breeding season. Although avian physiology has been widely investigated in captivity, few studies have integrated individual changes in feeding and physiological ecology throughout the breeding season in wild birds. To study relationships between feeding ecology and nutritional ecophysiology in Cory"s shearwater Calonectris diomedea, we weighed and took blood samples from 28 males and 19 females during the pre-laying, egg-laying, incubation, hatching and chick-rearing periods of the breeding season. In addition, we fitted 6 birds with geolocators to track their foraging movements throughout the reproductive period. Thus, we examined individual changes in (1) nutritional condition (biochemistry metabolites); (2) oxygen carrying capacity (hematology); and (3) feeding areas and foraging effort (stable isotopes and foraging movements). Geolocators revealed a latitudinal shift in main feeding areas towards more southern and more neritic waters throughout the breeding season, which is consistent with the steady increase in δ13C signatures in the blood. Geolocators also showed a decrease in foraging effort from egg-laying to hatching, reflecting the activity decrease associated with incubation duties. Plasma metabolites, body mass and oxygen carrying capacity were associated with temporal changes in nutritional state and foraging effort in relation to recovery after migration, egg formation, fasting shifts during incubation and chick provisioning. This study shows that combining physiological and ecological approaches can help us understand the influence of breeding duties on feeding ecology and nutritional physiology in wild birds.

Modeling of weeds interference periods in bean

The research objective was to determine the effects of spacing and seeding density of common bean to the period prior to weed interference (PPI) and weed period prior to economic loss (WEEPPEL). The treatments consisted of periods of coexistence between culture and the weeds, with 0 to 10, 0 to 20, 0 to 30, 0 to 40, 0 to 50, 0 to 60, 0 to 70, and 0 to 80 days and a control maintained without weeds. In addition to the periods of coexistence, there were still studies with an inter-row of 0.45 and 0.60 m, 10 and 15 plants m-1. The experimental delineation used was randomized blocks with four repetitions per treatment. The grain productivity of the culture had a reduction of 63, 50, 42 and 57% when the coexistence with the weed plants was during the entire cycle of the culture for a row spacing of 0.45 m and a seeding density of 10 and 15 plants per meter; and a row spacing of 0.60m and a seeding density of 10 and 15 plants per meter, respectively. The PPI occurred in 23, 27, 13, and 19 days after crop emergence and WEEPPEL in 10, 9, 8, and 8 days, respectively.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Regression periods in infancy. A case study from Catalonia.

Based on Rijt-Plooij and Plooij’s (1992) research on emergence of regression periods in the first two years of life, the presence of such periods in a group of 18 babies (10 boys and 8 girls, aged between 3 weeks and 14 months) from a Catalonian population was analyzed. The measurements were a questionnaire filled in by the infants’ mothers, a semi-structured weekly tape-recorded interview, and observations in their homes. The procedure and the instruments used in the project follow those proposed by Rijt-Plooij and Plooij. Our results confirm the existence of the regression periods in the first year of children’s life. Inter-coder agreement for trained coders was 78.2% and within-coder agreement was 90.1 %. In the discussion, the possible meaning and relevance of regression periods in order to understand development from a psychobiological and social framework is commented upon