L'intelligence-led policing: un cadre pertinent pour soutenir la lutte contre les incendies volontaires r��p��titifs

Agir efficacement contre les incendies volontaires r��p��titifs repr��sente un d��fi de taille pour la soci��t�� et la police. Nous proposons d'utiliser l'intelligence-led policing et le cycle du renseignement comme cadre �� une approche permettant une gestion et un suivi global et syst��matique de ces ��v��nements. Mais avant de pouvoir lancer ce processus, un certain nombre de d��fis doit ��tre surmont�� tel que la nature non sp��cifique des donn��es. Il sera alors possible de mettre en place un processus qui permettra de faire des analyses pour obtenir une vision des incendies, d��tecter des situations r��p��titives et des liens entre les ��v��nements mettant en ��vidence des s��ries. Le renseignement obtenu par l'analyse des donn��es rassembl��es peut ensuite ��tre utilis�� pour mettre en place des moyens compl��mentaires d'enqu��te ou pour prendre des mesures pr��ventives ou r��pressives.

Intelligence-led policing : O papel dos sistemas de informa����o no planeamento e orienta����o do esfor��o de policiamento

O presente trabalho de investiga����o aplicada est�� subordinado ao tema ���Intelligence-led policing: o papel dos sistemas de informa����o no planeamento e orienta����o do esfor��o de policiamento���. Come����mos por fazer um enquadramento te��rico e abordar conceitos importantes para o desenvolvimento de todo o trabalho. Assumindo um m��todo dedutivo, desenvolvemos um estudo com base na seguinte quest��o de partida: ���Qual o impacto dos sistemas de informa����o no planeamento e orienta����o do esfor��o de policiamento?���. Posto isto, este trabalho tem como objetivo perceber qual a influ��ncia que os sistemas de informa����o t��m na tomada de decis��o do comandante, neste caso de Destacamento Territorial, mais precisamente no planeamento e orienta����o do esfor��o de policiamento. Quanto �� metodologia, incidiu numa an��lise documental sobre as vari��veis em estudo e tamb��m na an��lise de respostas aos inqu��ritos por question��rio efetuados aos Comandantes de Destacamento Territorial. Com este trabalho conclu��mos que, do ponto de vista de uma grande parte dos inquiridos, os sistemas de informa����o que a Guarda Nacional Republicana disp��e n��o s��o adequados ��s necessidades operacionais desta. Outra conclus��o a que cheg��mos foi ao facto de, apesar da informa����o analisada ter reconhecidamente valor acrescentado, as ferramentas de an��lise que a Guarda disp��e tamb��m n��o s��o suficientes para suprir as necessidades sentidas.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part II : Intelligence and crime scene examination

A better integration of the information conveyed by traces within intelligence-led framework would allow forensic science to participate more intensively to security assessments through forensic intelligence (part I). In this view, the collection of data by examining crime scenes is an entire part of intelligence processes. This conception frames our proposal for a model that promotes to better use knowledge available in the organisation for driving and supporting crime scene examination. The suggested model also clarifies the uncomfortable situation of crime scene examiners who must simultaneously comply with justice needs and expectations, and serve organisations that are mostly driven by broader security objectives. It also opens new perspective for forensic science and crime scene investigation, by the proposal to follow other directions than the traditional path suggested by dominant movements in these fields.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part II : Intelligence and crime scene examination.

A better integration of the information conveyed by traces within intelligence-led framework would allow forensic science to participate more intensively to security assessments through forensic intelligence (part I). In this view, the collection of data by examining crime scenes is an entire part of intelligence processes. This conception frames our proposal for a model that promotes to better use knowledge available in the organisation for driving and supporting crime scene examination. The suggested model also clarifies the uncomfortable situation of crime scene examiners who must simultaneously comply with justice needs and expectations, and serve organisations that are mostly driven by broader security objectives. It also opens new perspective for forensic science and crime scene investigation, by the proposal to follow other directions than the traditional path suggested by dominant movements in these fields.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part I : Forensic intelligence.

Forensic science is generally defined as the application of science to address questions related to the law. Too often, this view restricts the contribution of science to one single process which eventually aims at bringing individuals to court while minimising risk of miscarriage of justice. In order to go beyond this paradigm, we propose to refocus the attention towards traces themselves, as remnants of a criminal activity, and their information content. We postulate that traces contribute effectively to a wide variety of other informational processes that support decision making inmany situations. In particular, they inform actors of new policing strategies who place the treatment of information and intelligence at the centre of their systems. This contribution of forensic science to these security oriented models is still not well identified and captured. In order to create the best condition for the development of forensic intelligence, we suggest a framework that connects forensic science to intelligence-led policing (part I). Crime scene attendance and processing can be envisaged within this view. This approach gives indications abouthowto structure knowledge used by crime scene examiners in their effective practice (part II).

The use of methylamphetamine chemical profiling in an intelligence-led perspective and the observation of inhomogeneity within seizures

This study focuses on methylamphetamine (MA) seizures made by the Australian Federal Police (AFP) to investigate the use of chemical profiling in an intelligence perspective. Correlation coefficients were used to obtain a similarity degree between a population of linked samples and a population of unlinked samples. Although it was demonstrated that a general framework can be followed for the use of any forensic case data in an intelligence-led perspective, threshold values have to be re-evaluated for each type of illicit drug investigated. Unlike the results obtained in a previous study on 3,4-methylenedioxymethylamphetamine (MDMA) seizures, chemical profiles of MA samples coming from the same seizure showed relative inhomogeneity, limiting their ability to link seizures. Different hypotheses were investigated to obtain a better understanding of this inhomogeneity although no trend was observed. These findings raise an interesting discussion in regards to the homogeneity and representativeness of illicit drug seizures (for intelligence purposes). Further, it also provides some grounds to discuss the initial hypotheses and assumptions that most forensic science studies are based on.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

First systematic chemical profiling of cocaine police seizures in Finland in the framework of an intelligence-led approach

For the first time in Finland, the chemical profiling of cocaine specimens was performed at the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI). The main goals were to determine the chemical composition of cocaine specimens sold in the Finnish market and to study the distribution networks of cocaine in order to provide intelligence related to its trafficking. An analytical methodology enabling through one single GC-MS injection the determination of the added cutting agents (adulterants and diluents), the cocaine purity and the chemical profile (based on the major and minor alkaloids) for each specimen was thus implemented and validated. The methodology was found to be efficient for the discrimination between specimens coming from the same source and specimens coming from different sources. The results highlighted the practical utility of the chemical profiling, especially for supporting the investigation through operational intelligence and improving the knowledge related to the cocaine trafficking through strategic intelligence.

The polymorhism of crime scene investigation: an exploratory analysis of the influence of crime and forensic intelligence on decisions made by crime scene examiners

A growing body of scientific literature recurrently indicates that crime and forensic intelligence influence how crime scene investigators make decisions in their practices. This study scrutinises further this intelligence-led crime scene examination view. It analyses results obtained from two questionnaires. Data have been collected from nine chiefs of Intelligence Units (IUs) and 73 Crime Scene Examiners (CSEs) working in forensic science units (FSUs) in the French speaking part of Switzerland (six cantonal police agencies). Four salient elements emerged: (1) the actual existence of communication channels between IUs and FSUs across the police agencies under consideration; (2) most CSEs take into account crime intelligence disseminated; (3) a differentiated, but significant use by CSEs in their daily practice of this kind of intelligence; (4) a probable deep influence of this kind of intelligence on the most concerned CSEs, specially in the selection of the type of material/trace to detect, collect, analyse and exploit. These results contribute to decipher the subtle dialectic articulating crime intelligence and crime scene investigation, and to express further the polymorph role of CSEs, beyond their most recognised input to the justice system. Indeed, they appear to be central, but implicit, stakeholders in intelligence-led style of policing.

Modelo preditivo da criminalidade ��� georeferencia����o ao concelho de Lisboa

Disserta����o apresentada como requisito parcial para a obten����o do grau de Mestre em Estat��stica e Gest��o de Informa����o

Grundriss innovativer Polizeians��tze. Eine kritische Begutachtung verschiedener Strategien und T��tigkeiten und deren Implementierung in der Schweiz in Theorie und Praxis.

This thesis contains three parts. The first one offers the theoretical basement, where the history of the police from their beginning in the early 19th century to this day is shown. The emphasis however is laid on the last 40 years, which gave birth to a multitude of innovations, such as community, problem-oriented, hot-spots or zero-tolerance policing. Those innovations are described in detail and are critically commented. At the end of this section, I present a scheme, where all the approaches are classified as strategic or methodic innovations, but united under a model called "modern policing". The fact that the innovations are not competitive but rather complementary is the most important finding of this examination. The second part of this work deals with a unique survey about the implementation of four innovations and eight problem- and community-oriented activities in 85 Swiss police forces. This explorative study shows that in the last 15 years the Swiss police forces have increasingly adopted innovative approaches. The most frequent innovation is community policing, which has been implemented all over the country. Due to the results, we can also assume that the implementation of the innovations is mostly substantial and profound. However, particularly in the area of problem-solving there is still a need for improvements. The third section consists of a scientific evaluation of a temporary special unit of the municipal police Zurich, which, during nine months, fought against public drug dealing and illegal prostitution in a particular neighborhood called Langstrasse. The effects of this hot-spot project were measured with police data, observations and several population surveys. In general, the special unit achieved a positive outcome and helped to defuse the hot-spot. Additionally, a survey conducted within the police department showed that the personal attitude towards the special unit differed widely between the policemen. We found significant differences between both police regions East and West, rank-and-file and higher ranking officers, different ages and the personal connection to the special unit. In fact, the higher the rank, the lower the age, and the closer the relationship, the more positive the officers were towards the unit.

The profiling of false identity documents: a promising method to fight identity fraud

Under the influence of intelligence-led policing models, crime analysis methods have known of important developments in recent years. Applications have been proposed in several fields of forensic science to exploit and manage various types of material evidence in a systematic and more efficient way. However, nothing has been suggested so far in the field of false identity documents.This study seeks to fill this gap by proposing a simple and general method for profiling false identity documents which aims to establish links based on their visual forensic characteristics. A sample of more than 200 false identity documents including French stolen blank passports, counterfeited driving licenses from Iraq and falsified Bulgarian driving licenses was gathered from nine Swiss police departments and integrated into an ad hoc developed database called ProfID. Links detected automatically and systematically through this database were exploited and analyzed to produce strategic and tactical intelligence useful to the fight against identity document fraud.The profiling and intelligence process established for these three types of false identity documents has confirmed its efficiency, more than 30% of documents being linked. Identity document fraud appears as a structured and interregional criminality, against which material and forensic links detected between false identity documents might serve as a tool for investigation.

Des faux documents d'identit�� au renseignement forensique : d��veloppement d'une approche syst��matique et transversale du traitement de la donn��e forensique �� des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pi��ces d'identit�� constituent une menace pour la s��curit�� autant publique que priv��e. Ces faux documents repr��sentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalit��, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organis��es. La dimension, la complexit��, la faible visibilit��, ainsi que les caract��res r��p��titif et ��volutif de la fraude aux documents d'identit�� appellent des r��ponses nouvelles qui vont au-del�� d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la strat��gie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique r��v��le l'��chec. Ces nouvelles r��ponses passent par un renforcement de la capacit�� de comprendre les probl��mes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identit�� et les ph��nom��nes qui l'animent. Cette compr��hension est tout bonnement n��cessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'��valuer et de d��cider les solutions et mesures les plus appropri��es. Elle requi��re de d��velopper les capacit��s d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les mod��les d'action de s��curit�� les plus r��cents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pi��ces d'identit�� se con��oivent utilement comme la trace mat��rielle ou le vestige r��sultant de l'activit�� de fabrication ou d'alt��ration d'un document d'identit�� men��e par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avanc�� que l'exploitation scientifique, m��thodique et syst��matique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de g��n��rer des connaissances ph��nom��nologiques sur les formes de criminalit�� qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pi��ces d'identit��, connaissances qui s'int��grent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'��preuve de cette th��se de d��part et de l'��tude plus g��n��rale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des d��finitions et des mod��les. Il d��crit des nouvelles m��thodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt ��galement �� des exp��rimentations et des ��tudes de cas. Les r��sultats obtenus d��montrent que le traitement syst��matique de la donn��e forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel strat��gique, op��rationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combin�� aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de s��curit�� dans ses dimensions r��pressive, proactive, pr��ventive et de contr��le. En particulier, les m��thodes de profilage des fausses pi��ces d'identit�� propos��es permettent de r��v��ler des tendances au travers de jeux de donn��es ��tendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inf��rer une communaut�� ou diff��rence de source. Ces m��thodes appuient des moyens de d��tection et de suivi des s��ries, des probl��mes et des ph��nom��nes criminels qui s'int��grent dans le cadre de la veille op��rationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par probl��mes les cas isol��s, de mettre en ��vidence les formes organis��es de criminalit�� qui m��ritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et in��dites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalit��. Le travail discute ��galement les difficult��s associ��es �� la gestion de donn��es et d'informations propres �� diff��rents niveaux de g��n��ralit��, ou les difficult��s relatives �� l'impl��mentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pi��ces d'identit�� et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de s��curit��. Au travers d'une d��marche inductive, il proc��de ��galement �� une g��n��ralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement syst��matique des fausses pi��ces d'identit��, mais pour celui de tout type de trace d��s lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une d��finition et une compr��hension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.

Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.