Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing1. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events2 such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 17663, 4, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a ‘wake-up call’ to the impacts of climate change at the time7, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail8, 9 to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology4, 10 associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing11, 12, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Estimating losses in teleportation schemes using the phenomenological operator approach to dissipation in cavity quantum electrodynamics

In this paper, we estimate the losses during teleportation processes requiring either two high-Q cavities or a single bimodal cavity. The estimates were carried out using the phenomenological operator approach introduced by de Almeida et al. [Phys. Rev. A 62, 033815 (2000)].

Influence of the Operational Constraints in the Active Transmission Losses Allocation via Lagrange Multipliers

This paper presents an approach for the active transmission losses allocation between the agents of the system. The approach uses the primal and dual variable information of the Optimal Power Flow in the losses allocation strategy. The allocation coefficients are determined via Lagrange multipliers. The paper emphasizes the necessity to consider the operational constraints and parameters of the systems in the problem solution. An example, for a 3-bus system is presented in details, as well as a comparative test with the main allocation methods. Case studies on the IEEE 14-bus systems are carried out to verify the influence of the constraints and parameters of the system in the losses allocation.

Magnetic losses evolution of a semi-processed steel during forced aging treatments

An ultra-low carbon steel (30 ppm after decarburization) containing Al and Si was aged for distinct soaking times at 210 degrees C. The core loss increased continuously until around 24 h. After that, only slight changes were verified. It was found that only the hysteresis loss component changed during the aging treatment. By internal friction test and transmission electron microscopy it was seen that carbon precipitation caused the magnetic aging. By scanning electron microscopy it could be concluded that the increase of aging index was attributed to the high number of carbides larger than 0.1 mu m. (C) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

The influence of different voltage waveforms and grain sizes in electrical steels losses

Square and two-level pulse width modulation (PWM) magnetic induction waveforms are investigated and their effect on electrical steels losses as a function of the grain size is determined. The increase of hysteresis losses-as compared to that resulting from sinusoidal voltages-occurs only for two-level PWM waveforms. Total losses are lower for square waveform, and the difference between losses under square and sinusoidal waveform increase with increasing grain size, result explained with the loss separation model. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Runoff and leachate losses of phosphorus in a sandy spodosol amended with biosolids

Florida Spodosols axe sandy, inherently low in Fe- and Al-based minerals, and sorb phosphorus (P) poorly. We evaluated runoff and leachate P losses from a typical Florida Spodosol amended with biosolids and triple superphosphate (TSP). Phosphorus losses were evaluated with traditional indoor rainfall simulations but used a double-deck box arrangement that allowed leaching and runoff to be determined simultaneously. Biosolids (Lakeland, OCUD, Milorganite, and Disney) represented contrasting values of total P, percent water-extractable p (PWEP), and percentage of solids. All P sources were surface applied at 224 kg P ha(-1), representing a soil P rate typical of N-based biosolids application. All biosolids-P sources lost less P than TSp, and leachate-P losses generally dominated. For Lakeland-amended I soil, bioavailable P (BAP) was mainly lost by runoff (81% of total BAP losses). This behavior was due to surface scaling and 1 drying after application of the slurry (31 g kg(-1) solids), material. For all other P sources, BAP losses in leachate were much,greater than in runoff, representing 94% of total BAP losses for TSP, 80% for Milorganite, 72% for Disney, and 69% for OCUD treatments. Phosphorus leaching can be extreme and represents a great concern in many coarse-textured Florida Spodosols, and other coastal plain soils with low P-sorption,capacities. The PWEP values of P sources were significantly correlared with total P and BAP losses in runoff and leachate. The PWEP of a source can serve as a good indicator of potential P loss when amended to sandy soils with low P-retention capacities.

Dental set-vice provision in private general practice for an insured population in New South Wales, Australia

Objective To determine patterns of dental set-vices provided to a cohort of the insured population 18 years and over, in private general practice in New South Wales, Australia. Basic research design A cohort study using the person-years method and Poisson regression for analysis. Setting Data were derived from claims records submitted by members of a health insurance fund (Government Employees Health Fund-GEHF) for rebates during the study period 1 January 1992-31 December 1995. Participants There were 133,467 members aged 18 years and over from New South Wales. Main outcome measures To determine, by age group, for those members who used private general practice and made a claim (referred to as 'patients') the annual number of visits, total number of services received per year and number of services received at a visit, Results The mean number of visits per patient was 2.4 per year with patients under 45 years making fewer visits than the 45-54 age group reference category. Mean number of services utilised per patient-year was 5.9, with services provided increasing from 3.5 for the 18-24-year-old group, reaching a plateau of approximately 6.2 for those aged 45 years or more. The number of services received per visit was 2.4 and there were no differences by age. Service mix was dominated by restorative (35%), diagnostic (27%), and preventive services (18%); with age specific variations observed. Conclusions Age was found to be an important determinant in the use of dental services, independent of membership duration and gender.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.

Soybean: unrealized income losses avoided during harvest.

The wastes occurred during the harvest cause a hard impact in the agricultural business. About the soy fields, recent researches indicate that half of this waste could be avoided, reducing the cost of production and resultant earning of the companies. The purpose of this article is to analyze the estimative of soy harvest field area of 2006/07 to 2007/08 and respective production, subsidy estimate the waste that could be avoided during the harvest, considerating tolerable levels of 60 Kg by hectare, accordant is the model adopted on USA e Brazil. This research was based in a bibliographic study to explain and analyze all sides, practical and theoretical around the investigate problem. It was checked that is possible expect and avoid these wastes during the harvest. Such wastes overcome the mark of 20,000 ton/year, that in money talks represent over R$ 1.000.000 mil/year. Conclude however that wastes when treated provide a production cost reduction, indicating execution and a positive impact on agricultural companies` earnings.