Redes de transformação do processo de inovação: o caminho entre a descoberta e a comercialização

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A review on degradation models in reliability analysis

With increasingly complex engineering assets and tight economic requirements, asset reliability becomes more crucial in Engineering Asset Management (EAM). Improving the reliability of systems has always been a major aim of EAM. Reliability assessment using degradation data has become a significant approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of critical systems. Degradation data often provide more information than failure time data for assessing reliability and predicting the remnant life of systems. In general, degradation is the reduction in performance, reliability, and life span of assets. Many failure mechanisms can be traced to an underlying degradation process. Degradation phenomenon is a kind of stochastic process; therefore, it could be modelled in several approaches. Degradation modelling techniques have generated a great amount of research in reliability field. While degradation models play a significant role in reliability analysis, there are few review papers on that. This paper presents a review of the existing literature on commonly used degradation models in reliability analysis. The current research and developments in degradation models are reviewed and summarised in this paper. This study synthesises these models and classifies them in certain groups. Additionally, it attempts to identify the merits, limitations, and applications of each model. It provides potential applications of these degradation models in asset health and reliability prediction.

Using self-referencing to explain the effectiveness of ethnic minority models in advertising

Advertising research has generally not gone beyond offering support for a positive effect where ethnic models in advertising are viewed by consumers of the same ethnicity. This study offers an explanation behind this phenomenon that can be useful to marketers using self-reference theory. Our experiment reveals a strong self-referencing effect for ethnic minority individuals. Specifically, Asian subjects (the ethnic minority group) self-referenced ads with Asian models more than white subjects (the ethnic majority group). However, this result was not evident for white subjects. Implications for academics and advertisers are discussed.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Investigation of MEMS inertial sensors and aircraft dynamic models in global positioning system integrity monitoring for approaches with vertical guidance

An Approach with Vertical Guidance (APV) is an instrument approach procedure which provides horizontal and vertical guidance to a pilot on approach to landing in reduced visibility conditions. APV approaches can greatly reduce the safety risk to general aviation by improving the pilot’s situational awareness. In particular the incidence of Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) which has occurred in a number of fatal air crashes in general aviation over the past decade in Australia, can be reduced. APV approaches can also improve general aviation operations. If implemented at Australian airports, APV approach procedures are expected to bring a cost saving of millions of dollars to the economy due to fewer missed approaches, diversions and an increased safety benefit. The provision of accurate horizontal and vertical guidance is achievable using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Because aviation is a safety of life application, an aviation-certified GPS receiver must have integrity monitoring or augmentation to ensure that its navigation solution can be trusted. However, the difficulty with the current GPS satellite constellation alone meeting APV integrity requirements, the susceptibility of GPS to jamming or interference and the potential shortcomings of proposed augmentation solutions for Australia such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS) justifies the investigation of Aircraft Based Augmentation Systems (ABAS) as an alternative integrity solution for general aviation. ABAS augments GPS with other sensors at the aircraft to help it meet the integrity requirements. Typical ABAS designs assume high quality inertial sensors to provide an accurate reference trajectory for Kalman filters. Unfortunately high-quality inertial sensors are too expensive for general aviation. In contrast to these approaches the purpose of this research is to investigate fusing GPS with lower-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) Inertial Measurement Units (IMU) and a mathematical model of aircraft dynamics, referred to as an Aircraft Dynamic Model (ADM) in this thesis. Using a model of aircraft dynamics in navigation systems has been studied before in the available literature and shown to be useful particularly for aiding inertial coasting or attitude determination. In contrast to these applications, this thesis investigates its use in ABAS. This thesis presents an ABAS architecture concept which makes use of a MEMS IMU and ADM, named the General Aviation GPS Integrity System (GAGIS) for convenience. GAGIS includes a GPS, MEMS IMU, ADM, a bank of Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) and uses the Normalized Solution Separation (NSS) method for fault detection. The GPS, IMU and ADM information is fused together in a tightly-coupled configuration, with frequent GPS updates applied to correct the IMU and ADM. The use of both IMU and ADM allows for a number of different possible configurations. Three are investigated in this thesis; a GPS-IMU EKF, a GPS-ADM EKF and a GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. The integrity monitoring performance of the GPS-IMU EKF, GPS-ADM EKF and GPS-IMU-ADM EKF architectures are compared against each other and against a stand-alone GPS architecture in a series of computer simulation tests of an APV approach. Typical GPS, IMU, ADM and environmental errors are simulated. The simulation results show the GPS integrity monitoring performance achievable by augmenting GPS with an ADM and low-cost IMU for a general aviation aircraft on an APV approach. A contribution to research is made in determining whether a low-cost IMU or ADM can provide improved integrity monitoring performance over stand-alone GPS. It is found that a reduction of approximately 50% in protection levels is possible using the GPS-IMU EKF or GPS-ADM EKF as well as faster detection of a slowly growing ramp fault on a GPS pseudorange measurement. A second contribution is made in determining how augmenting GPS with an ADM compares to using a low-cost IMU. By comparing the results for the GPS-ADM EKF against the GPS-IMU EKF it is found that protection levels for the GPS-ADM EKF were only approximately 2% higher. This indicates that the GPS-ADM EKF may potentially replace the GPS-IMU EKF for integrity monitoring should the IMU ever fail. In this way the ADM may contribute to the navigation system robustness and redundancy. To investigate this further, a third contribution is made in determining whether or not the ADM can function as an IMU replacement to improve navigation system redundancy by investigating the case of three IMU accelerometers failing. It is found that the failed IMU measurements may be supplemented by the ADM and adequate integrity monitoring performance achieved. Besides treating the IMU and ADM separately as in the GPS-IMU EKF and GPS-ADM EKF, a fourth contribution is made in investigating the possibility of fusing the IMU and ADM information together to achieve greater performance than either alone. This is investigated using the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. It is found that the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF can achieve protection levels approximately 3% lower in the horizontal and 6% lower in the vertical than a GPS-IMU EKF. However this small improvement may not justify the complexity of fusing the IMU with an ADM in practical systems. Affordable ABAS in general aviation may enhance existing GPS-only fault detection solutions or help overcome any outages in augmentation systems such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS). Countries such as Australia which currently do not have an augmentation solution for general aviation could especially benefit from the economic savings and safety benefits of satellite navigation-based APV approaches.

Explaining usage of process modeling grammars : comparing three theoretical models in the study of two grammars

Our objective was to determine the factors that lead users to continue working with process modeling grammars after their initial adoption. We examined the explanatory power of three theoretical models of IT usage by applying them to two popular process modeling grammars. We found that a hybrid model of technology acceptance and expectation-confirmation best explained user intentions to continue using the grammars. We examined differences in the model results, and used them to provide three contributions. First, the study confirmed the applicability of IT usage models to the domain of process modeling. Second, we discovered that differences in continued usage intentions depended on the grammar type instead of the user characteristics. Third, we suggest implications and practice.

Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Theoretical analysis of serrated chip formation based on ideal models in high speed cutting

In this paper, two ideal formation models of serrated chips, the symmetric formation model and the unilateral right-angle formation model, have been established for the first time. Based on the ideal models and related adiabatic shear theory of serrated chip formation, the theoretical relationship among average tooth pitch, average tooth height and chip thickness are obtained. Further, the theoretical relation of the passivation coefficient of chip's sawtooth and the chip thickness compression ratio is deduced as well. The comparison between these theoretical prediction curves and experimental data shows good agreement, which well validates the robustness of the ideal chip formation models and the correctness of the theoretical deducing analysis. The proposed ideal models may have provided a simple but effective theoretical basis for succeeding research on serrated chip morphology. Finally, the influences of most principal cutting factors on serrated chip formation are discussed on the basis of a series of finite element simulation results for practical advices of controlling serrated chips in engineering application.

Towards a classification of criterion referenced assessment models in mathematics courses : student and academic perspectives

We present the findings of a study into the implementation of explicitly criterion- referenced assessment in undergraduate courses in mathematics. We discuss students' concepts of criterion referencing and also the various interpretations that this concept has among mathematics educators. Our primary goal was to move towards a classification of criterion referencing models in quantitative courses. A secondary goal was to investigate whether explicitly presenting assessment criteria to students was useful to them and guided them in responding to assessment tasks. The data and feedback from students indicates that while students found the criteria easy to understand and useful in informing them as to how they would be graded, it did not alter the way the actually approached the assessment activity.

Refining animal models in fracture research: Seeking consensus in optimising both animal welfare and scientific validity for appropriate biomedical use

Background In an attempt to establish some consensus on the proper use and design of experimental animal models in musculoskeletal research, AOVET (the veterinary specialty group of the AO Foundation) in concert with the AO Research Institute (ARI), and the European Academy for the Study of Scientific and Technological Advance, convened a group of musculoskeletal researchers, veterinarians, legal experts, and ethicists to discuss, in a frank and open forum, the use of animals in musculoskeletal research. Methods The group narrowed the field to fracture research. The consensus opinion resulting from this workshop can be summarized as follows: Results & Conclusion Anaesthesia and pain management protocols for research animals should follow standard protocols applied in clinical work for the species involved. This will improve morbidity and mortality outcomes. A database should be established to facilitate selection of anaesthesia and pain management protocols for specific experimental surgical procedures and adopted as an International Standard (IS) according to animal species selected. A list of 10 golden rules and requirements for conduction of animal experiments in musculoskeletal research was drawn up comprising 1) Intelligent study designs to receive appropriate answers; 2) Minimal complication rates (5 to max. 10%); 3) Defined end-points for both welfare and scientific outputs analogous to quality assessment (QA) audit of protocols in GLP studies; 4) Sufficient details for materials and methods applied; 5) Potentially confounding variables (genetic background, seasonal, hormonal, size, histological, and biomechanical differences); 6) Post-operative management with emphasis on analgesia and follow-up examinations; 7) Study protocols to satisfy criteria established for a "justified animal study"; 8) Surgical expertise to conduct surgery on animals; 9) Pilot studies as a critical part of model validation and powering of the definitive study design; 10) Criteria for funding agencies to include requirements related to animal experiments as part of the overall scientific proposal review protocols. Such agencies are also encouraged to seriously consider and adopt the recommendations described here when awarding funds for specific projects. Specific new requirements and mandates related both to improving the welfare and scientific rigour of animal-based research models are urgently needed as part of international harmonization of standards.

Some novel techniques of parameter estimation for the dynamical models in biological systems

Inverse problems based on using experimental data to estimate unknown parameters of a system often arise in biological and chaotic systems. In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in systems biology involving linear and non-linear complex dynamical models, including the Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetic system, a dynamical model of competence induction in Bacillus subtilis bacteria and a model of feedback bypass in B. subtilis bacteria. We propose some novel techniques for inverse problems. Firstly, we establish an approximation of a non-linear differential algebraic equation that corresponds to the given biological systems. Secondly, we use the Picard contraction mapping, collage methods and numerical integration techniques to convert the parameter estimation into a minimization problem of the parameters. We propose two optimization techniques: a grid approximation method and a modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) for non-linear parameter estimation. The two techniques are used for parameter estimation in a model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria with noisy data. The MH-NMSS-PSO scheme is applied to a dynamical model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria based on experimental data and the model for feedback bypass. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.