Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping the shallow-water coral ecosystems of the Freely Associated States: an implementation plan

This Freely Associated States Shallow-water Coral Ecosystem Mapping Implementation Plan (FAS MIP) presents a framework for the development of shallow-water (~0–40 m; 0–22 fm) benthic habitat and possibly bathymetric maps of critical areas of the Freely Associated States (FAS). The FAS is made up of three self-governing groups of islands and atolls—the Republic of Palau (Palau), the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)—that are affiliated with the United States through Compacts of Free Association. This MIP was developed with extensive input from colleges, national and state regulatory and management agencies, federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, and individuals involved in or supporting the conservation and management of the FAS’s coral ecosystems. A list of organizations and individuals that provided input to the development of this MIP is provided in Appendix 1. This MIP has been developed to complement the Coral Reef Mapping Implementation Plan (2nd Draft) released in 1999 by the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force’s Mapping and Information Synthesis Working Group. That plan focused on mapping United States and FAS shallow-water (then defined as <30 m) coral reefs by 2009, based on available funding and geographic priorities, using primarily visual interpretation of aerial photography and satellite imagery. This MIP focuses on mapping the shallow-water (now defined as 0–40 m, rather than 0–30 m) coral ecosystems of the FAS using a suite of technologies and map development procedures. Both this FAS MIP and the 1999 Coral Reef Mapping Implementation Plan (2nd Draft) support to goals of the National Action Plan to Conserve Coral Reefs (U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, 2000). This FAS MIP presents a framework for mapping the coral ecosystems of the FAS and should be considered an evolving document. As priorities change, funding opportunities arise, new data are collected, and new technologies become available, the information presented herein will change.

Atlas of the shallow-water benthic habitats of American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) initiated a coral reef research program in 1999 to map, assess, inventory, and monitor U.S. coral reef ecosystems (Monaco et al. 2001). These activities were implemented in response to requirements outlined in the Mapping Implementation Plan developed by the Mapping and Information Synthesis Working Group (MISWG) of the Coral Reef Task Force (CRTF) (MISWG 1999). As part of the MISWG of the CRTF, NOS' Biogeography Branch has been charged with the development and implementation of a plan to produce comprehensive digital coral-reef ecosystem maps for all U.S. States, Territories, and Commonwealths within five to seven years. Joint activities between Federal agencies are particularly important to map, research, monitor, manage, and restore coral reef ecosystems. In response to the Executive Order 13089 and the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000, NOS is conducting research to digitally map biotic resources and coordinate a long-term monitoring program that can detect and predict change in U.S. coral reefs, and their associated habitats and biological communities. Most U.S. coral reef resources have not been digitally mapped at a scale or resolution sufficient for assessment, monitoring, and/or research to support resource management. Thus, a large portion of NOS' coral reef research activities has focused on mapping of U.S. coral reef ecosystems. The map products will provide the fundamental spatial organizing framework to implement and integrate research programs and provide the capability to effectively communicate information and results to coral reef ecosystem managers. Although the NOS coral program is relatively young, it has had tremendous success in advancing towards the goal to protect, conserve, and enhance the health of U.S. coral reef ecosystems. One objective of the program was to create benthic habitat maps to support coral reef research to enable development of products that support management needs and questions. Therefore this product was developed in collaboration with many U.S. Pacific Territory partners. An initial step in producing benthic habitat maps was the development of a habitat classification scheme. The purpose of this document is to outline the benthic habitat classification scheme and protocols used to map American Samoa, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Thirty-two distinct benthic habitat types (i.e., four major and 14 detailed geomorphological structure classes; eight major and 18 detailed biological cover types) within eleven zones were mapped directly into a geographic information system (GIS) using visual interpretation of orthorectified IKONOS satellite imagery. Benthic features were mapped that covered an area of 263 square kilometers. In all, 281 square kilometers of unconsolidated sediment, 122 square kilometers of submerged vegetation, and 82.3 square kilometers of coral reef and colonized hardbottom were mapped.

Information and Efficiency in the Nervous System-A Synthesis

In systems biology, questions concerning the molecular and cellular makeup of an organism are of utmost importance, especially when trying to understand how unreliable components-like genetic circuits, biochemical cascades, and ion channels, among others-enable reliable and adaptive behaviour. The repertoire and speed of biological computations are limited by thermodynamic or metabolic constraints: an example can be found in neurons, where fluctuations in biophysical states limit the information they can encode-with almost 20-60% of the total energy allocated for the brain used for signalling purposes, either via action potentials or by synaptic transmission. Here, we consider the imperatives for neurons to optimise computational and metabolic efficiency, wherein benefits and costs trade-off against each other in the context of self-organised and adaptive behaviour. In particular, we try to link information theoretic (variational) and thermodynamic (Helmholtz) free-energy formulations of neuronal processing and show how they are related in a fundamental way through a complexity minimisation lemma.

Synthesis, characterization and physiochemical information, along with antimicrobial studies of some metal complexes derived from an ON donor semicarbazone ligand

Eight new transition metal complexes of benzaldehyde-N(4)–phenylsemicarbazone have been synthesized and characterized by elemental analyses, molar conductance, electronic and infrared spectral studies. In all the complexes, the semicarbazone is coordinated as neutral bidentate ligand. 1H NMR spectrum of [Zn(HL)2(OAc)2] shows that there is no enolisation of the ligand in the complex. The magnetic susceptibility measurements indicate that Cr(III), Mn(II), Fe(III), Co(II) and Cu(II) complexes are paramagnetic and Ni(II) is diamagnetic. The EPR spectrum of [Mn(HL)2(OAc)2] in DMF solution at 77K shows hyperfine sextet with low intensity forbidden lines lying between each of the two main hyperfine lines. The g values calculated for the [Cu(HL)2SO4] complex in frozen DMF, indicate the presence of unpaired electron in the dx2−y2 orbital. The metal ligand bonding parameters evaluated showed strong in-plane bonding and in-plane bonding. The ligand and complexes were screened for their possible antimicrobial activities.