A methodology for improving computed individual regressions predictions.

This research proposes a methodology to improve computed individual prediction values provided by an existing regression model without having to change either its parameters or its architecture. In other words, we are interested in achieving more accurate results by adjusting the calculated regression prediction values, without modifying or rebuilding the original regression model. Our proposition is to adjust the regression prediction values using individual reliability estimates that indicate if a single regression prediction is likely to produce an error considered critical by the user of the regression. The proposed method was tested in three sets of experiments using three different types of data. The first set of experiments worked with synthetically produced data, the second with cross sectional data from the public data source UCI Machine Learning Repository and the third with time series data from ISO-NE (Independent System Operator in New England). The experiments with synthetic data were performed to verify how the method behaves in controlled situations. In this case, the outcomes of the experiments produced superior results with respect to predictions improvement for artificially produced cleaner datasets with progressive worsening with the addition of increased random elements. The experiments with real data extracted from UCI and ISO-NE were done to investigate the applicability of the methodology in the real world. The proposed method was able to improve regression prediction values by about 95% of the experiments with real data.

Assessing volume of accelerometry data for reliability in preschool children

Purpose: This study examines what volume of accelerometry data (h·d-1) is required to reliably estimate preschool children’s physical activity and whether it is necessary to include weekday and weekend data.

Methods: Accelerometry data from 493 to 799 (depending on wear time) preschool children from the Melbourne-based Healthy Active Preschool Years study were used. The percentage of wear time each child spent in total (light–vigorous) physical activity was the main outcome. Hourly increments of daily data were analyzed. t-tests, controlling for age and clustering by center of recruitment, assessed the differences between weekday and weekend physical activity. Intraclass correlation coefficients estimated reliability for an individual day. Spearman–Brown prophecy formula estimated the number of days required to reach reliability estimates of 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9.

Results: The children spent a significantly greater percentage of time being physically active on weekend compared with weekdays regardless of the minimum number of hours included (t = 12.49–16.76, P < 0.001 for all). The number of days required to reach each of the predetermined reliability estimates increased as the number of hours of data per day decreased. For instance, 2.7–2.8 d of data were required to reach a reliability estimate of 0.7 with 10 or more hours of data per day; 3.3–3.4 d were required to meet the same reliability estimate for days with 7 h of data.

Conclusions: Future studies should ensure they include the minimum amount of data (hours per day and number of days) as identified in this study to meet at least a 0.7 reliability level and should report the level of reliability for their study. In addition to weekdays, at least one weekend day should be included in analyses to reliably estimate physical activity levels for preschool children.

Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

How many days of monitoring are needed to reliably assess SenseWear Armband outcomes in primary school-aged children?

OBJECTIVES: To identify the number of hours and days or nights of monitoring required to reliably estimate energy expenditure (EE), steps, waking sedentary time, light- (LPA), moderate- (MPA), vigorous- (VPA), moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA), time in bed and total sleep time using the SenseWear Armband. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: One hundred and two children (50% boys) aged 8-11 years from six schools wore a SenseWear Armband (BodyMedia Inc, USA) for eight consecutive days (seven consecutive nights). Hourly increments of valid day wear time criteria were examined (days/week; 8h/day-14h/day). Intra-class correlation coefficients estimated the reliability for any individual day for each wear time criteria. The Spearman-Brown prophecy formula was used to determine the number of days/nights of monitoring needed to achieve reliability estimates of 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. RESULTS: Fewer monitoring days were needed as the valid day criteria became more stringent. For example, at least 12h of wear time on at least 2 days was required to achieve a reliability of 0.7 for EE. In contrast, at least 8h/day on 5 days resulted in reliable estimates (0.7) for MPA, VPA and MVPA. Between 6 and 7 nights of monitoring were required to reliably estimate children's time in bed and total sleep time, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A 7-day monitoring protocol in primary school-aged children would provide acceptable reliability for the assessment of EE, waking sedentary time, LPA, MPA, VPA, MVPA, time in bed and total sleep time, as assessed by the SenseWear Armband.

A linearization-based system reliability method with application to geotechnical analysis

Los análisis de fiabilidad representan una herramienta adecuada para contemplar las incertidumbres inherentes que existen en los parámetros geotécnicos. En esta Tesis Doctoral se desarrolla una metodología basada en una linealización sencilla, que emplea aproximaciones de primer o segundo orden, para evaluar eficientemente la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. En primer lugar, se emplean diferentes métodos para analizar la fiabilidad de dos aspectos propios del diseño de los túneles: la estabilidad del frente y el comportamiento del sostenimiento. Se aplican varias metodologías de fiabilidad — el Método de Fiabilidad de Primer Orden (FORM), el Método de Fiabilidad de Segundo Orden (SORM) y el Muestreo por Importancia (IS). Los resultados muestran que los tipos de distribución y las estructuras de correlación consideradas para todas las variables aleatorias tienen una influencia significativa en los resultados de fiabilidad, lo cual remarca la importancia de una adecuada caracterización de las incertidumbres geotécnicas en las aplicaciones prácticas. Los resultados también muestran que tanto el FORM como el SORM pueden emplearse para estimar la fiabilidad del sostenimiento de un túnel y que el SORM puede mejorar el FORM con un esfuerzo computacional adicional aceptable. Posteriormente, se desarrolla una metodología de linealización para evaluar la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. Esta metodología solamente necesita la información proporcionada por el FORM: el vector de índices de fiabilidad de las funciones de estado límite (LSFs) que componen el sistema y su matriz de correlación. Se analizan dos problemas geotécnicos comunes —la estabilidad de un talud en un suelo estratificado y un túnel circular excavado en roca— para demostrar la sencillez, precisión y eficiencia del procedimiento propuesto. Asimismo, se reflejan las ventajas de la metodología de linealización con respecto a las herramientas computacionales alternativas. Igualmente se muestra que, en el caso de que resulte necesario, se puede emplear el SORM —que aproxima la verdadera LSF mejor que el FORM— para calcular estimaciones más precisas de la fiabilidad del sistema. Finalmente, se presenta una nueva metodología que emplea Algoritmos Genéticos para identificar, de manera precisa, las superficies de deslizamiento representativas (RSSs) de taludes en suelos estratificados, las cuales se emplean posteriormente para estimar la fiabilidad del sistema, empleando la metodología de linealización propuesta. Se adoptan tres taludes en suelos estratificados característicos para demostrar la eficiencia, precisión y robustez del procedimiento propuesto y se discuten las ventajas del mismo con respecto a otros métodos alternativos. Los resultados muestran que la metodología propuesta da estimaciones de fiabilidad que mejoran los resultados previamente publicados, enfatizando la importancia de hallar buenas RSSs —y, especialmente, adecuadas (desde un punto de vista probabilístico) superficies de deslizamiento críticas que podrían ser no-circulares— para obtener estimaciones acertadas de la fiabilidad de taludes en suelos. Reliability analyses provide an adequate tool to consider the inherent uncertainties that exist in geotechnical parameters. This dissertation develops a simple linearization-based approach, that uses first or second order approximations, to efficiently evaluate the system reliability of geotechnical problems. First, reliability methods are employed to analyze the reliability of two tunnel design aspects: face stability and performance of support systems. Several reliability approaches —the first order reliability method (FORM), the second order reliability method (SORM), the response surface method (RSM) and importance sampling (IS)— are employed, with results showing that the assumed distribution types and correlation structures for all random variables have a significant effect on the reliability results. This emphasizes the importance of an adequate characterization of geotechnical uncertainties for practical applications. Results also show that both FORM and SORM can be used to estimate the reliability of tunnel-support systems; and that SORM can outperform FORM with an acceptable additional computational effort. A linearization approach is then developed to evaluate the system reliability of series geotechnical problems. The approach only needs information provided by FORM: the vector of reliability indices of the limit state functions (LSFs) composing the system, and their correlation matrix. Two common geotechnical problems —the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock— are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure. Advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, SORM —that approximates the true LSF better than FORM— can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability. Finally, a new approach using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is presented to identify the fully specified representative slip surfaces (RSSs) of layered soil slopes, and such RSSs are then employed to estimate the system reliability of slopes, using our proposed linearization approach. Three typical benchmark-slopes with layered soils are adopted to demonstrate the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the proposed method with respect to alternative methods are discussed. Results show that the proposed approach provides reliability estimates that improve previously published results, emphasizing the importance of finding good RSSs —and, especially, good (probabilistic) critical slip surfaces that might be non-circular— to obtain good estimations of the reliability of soil slope systems.

Test-retest reliability and practice effects of a rapid screen of mild traumatic brain injury

Test-retest reliabilities and practice affects of measures from the Rapid Screen of Concussion (RSC), in addition to the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (Digit Symbol), were examined. Twenty five male participants were tested three times; each testing session scheduled a week apart. The test-retest reliability estimates for most measures were reasonably good, ranging from .79 to .97. An exception was the delayed word recall test, which has had a reliability estimate of .66 for the first retest, and .59 for the second retest. Practice effects were evident from Times 1 to 2 on the sentence comprehension and delayed recall subtests of the RSC, Digit Symbol and a composite score. There was also a practice effect of the same magnitude found from Time 2 to Time 3 on Digit Symbol, delayed recall and the composite score. Statistics on measures for both the first and second retest intervals, with associated practice affects, are presented to enable the calculation of reliable change indices (RCI). The RCI may be used to assess any improvement in cognitive functioning after mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

The reliability and factorial validity of the Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale in a large sample in the United Kingdom

The assessment of adolescent drinking behavior is a complex task, complicated by variability in drinking patterns, the transitory and developmental nature of the behavior and the reliance (for large scale studies) on self-report questionnaires. The Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale (Mayer & Filstead, 1979) is a 14-item screening tool designed to help to identify alcohol misusers or more problematic drinkers. The present study utilized a large sample (n = 4066) adolescents from Northern Ireland. Results of Confirmatory Factor Analyses and reliability estimates revealed that the 14-items share sufficient common variance that scores can be considered to be reliable and that the 14 items can be scored to provide a composite alcohol use score.

Teacher Reporting Attitudes Scale (TRAS): confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses with a Malaysian sample.

The Teacher Reporting Attitude Scale (TRAS) is a newly developed tool to assess teachers’ attitudes toward reporting child abuse and neglect. This article reports on an investigation of the factor structure and psychometric properties of the short form Malay version of the TRAS. A self-report cross-sectional survey was conducted with 667 teachers in 14 randomly selected schools in Selangor state, Malaysia. Analyses were conducted in a 3-stage process using both confirmatory (stages 1 and 3) and exploratory factor analyses (stage 2) to test, modify, and confirm the underlying factor structure of the TRAS in a non-Western teacher sample. Confirmatory factor analysis did not support a 3-factor model previously reported in the original TRAS study. Exploratory factor analysis revealed an 8-item, 4-factor structure. Further confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated appropriateness of the 4-factor structure. Reliability estimates for the four factors—commitment, value, concern, and confidence—were moderate. The modified short form TRAS (Malay version) has potential to be used as a simple tool for relatively quick assessment of teachers’ attitudes toward reporting child abuse and neglect. Cross-cultural differences in attitudes toward reporting may exist and the transferability of newly developed instruments to other populations should be evaluated.

Health effects of daily airborne particle dose in children : direct association between personal dose and respiratory health effects

Air pollution is a widespread health problem associated with respiratory symptoms. Continuous exposure monitoring was performed to estimate alveolar and tracheobronchial dose, measured as deposited surface area, for 103 children and to evaluate the long-term effects of exposure to airborne particles through spirometry, skin prick tests and measurement of exhaled nitric oxide (eNO). The mean daily alveolar deposited surface area dose received by children was 1.35×103 mm2. The lowest and highest particle number concentrations were found during sleeping and eating time. A significant negative association was found between changes in pulmonary function tests and individual dose estimates. Significant differences were found for asthmatics, children with allergic rhinitis and sensitive to allergens compared to healthy subjects for eNO. Variation is a child’s activity over time appeared to have a strong impact on respiratory outcomes, which indicates that personal monitoring is vital for assessing the expected health effects of exposure to particles.

European and Polynesian admixture in the Norfolk Island population

The Norfolk Island population in the South Pacific is primarily the product of recent admixture between a small number of British male and Polynesian female founders. We identified and genotyped 128 Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs) spread across the autosomes, X/Y chromosomes and mitochondrial DNA genome, to explore and quantify the current levels of genetic admixture in the Norfolk Islanders. On the basis of autosomal AIMs, the population shows mean European and Polynesian ancestry proportions of 88 and 12%, respectively. However, there is a substantial variation between individuals ranging from total European ancestry to near total Polynesian origin. There is a strong correlation between individual genetic estimates of Polynesian ancestry and those derived from the extensive pedigree and genealogical records of Islanders. Also in line with historical accounts, there is a substantial asymmetry in the maternal and paternal origins of the Islanders with almost all Y-chromosomes of European origin whereas at least 25% of mtDNAs appear to have a Polynesian origin. Accurate knowledge of ancestry will be important in future attempts to use the Island population in admixture mapping approaches to find the genes that underlie differences in the risk to some diseases between Europeans and Polynesians.

The University Programmes for Senior Citizens and their contribution of lifelong learning

The study addresses the essential features of University Programmes for senior citizens (PUM). It committed to the lifelong education through the integration of the elderly in the University. Part of the base that is learned during the entire life cycle, there is no age, no specific space for education. Learning is constructed from knowledge, abilities, skills and aptitudes that are enriched continuously. It is necessary to ensure the elderly to age in a healthy way. It calls for active ageing, effective tool against isolation and social exclusion. The aim is to discover aspects of the UNED Senior training programme that contribute to lifelong learning and satisfaction produced. The PUM are ways for the promotion of aging along with other activities aimed to enhance a creative leisure, access to culture, facilitate training on topics of interest and create a means of participation in all spheres of society. In this research has resorted to a mixed methodology. Their wealth combines the methods of quantitative and qualitative allowing us to obtain information and contrast from different perspectives. The purpose is to verify the results of the investigation. The sample consists of 639 students, 57 teachers and 15 coordinators. The results indicate that the PUM of the UNED Senior is highly satisfactory for those involved, by the adequacy between interests and expectations. Fruit of this research are the conclusions and suggestions for improvement.

Can physical activity modulate pancreatic cancer risk?:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Numerous epidemiological studies have examined the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer; however, findings from individual cohorts have largely not corroborated a protective effect. Among other plausible mechanisms, physical activity may reduce abdominal fat depots inducing metabolic improvements in glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, thereby potentially attenuating pancreatic cancer risk. We performed a systematic review to examine associations between physical activity and pancreatic cancer. Six electronic databases were searched from their inception through July 2009, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, seeking observational studies examining any physical activity measure with pancreatic cancer incidence/mortality as an outcome. A random effects model was used to pool individual effect estimates evaluating highest vs. lowest categories of activity. Twenty-eight studies were included. Pooled estimates indicated a reduction in pancreatic cancer risk with higher levels of total (five prospective studies, RR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.52-0.99) and occupational activity (four prospective studies, RR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96). Nonsignificant inverse associations were seen between risks and recreational and transport physical activity. When examining exercise intensity, moderate activity appeared more protective (RR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.52-1.20) than vigorous activity (RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.85-1.11), but results were not statistically significant and the former activity variable incorporated marked heterogeneity. Despite indications of an inverse relationship with higher levels of work and total activity, there was little evidence of such associations with recreational and other activity exposures.

Assessing reproducibility of data obtained with instruments based on continuous measurements

Data obtained with any research tool must be reproducible, a concept referred to as reliability. Three techniques are often used to evaluate reliability of tools using continuous data in aging research: intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Pearson correlations, and paired t tests. These are often construed as equivalent when applied to reliability. This is not correct, and may lead researchers to select instruments based on statistics that may not reflect actual reliability. The purpose of this paper is to compare the reliability estimates produced by these three techniques and determine the preferable technique. A hypothetical dataset was produced to evaluate the reliability estimates obtained with ICC, Pearson correlations, and paired t tests in three different situations. For each situation two sets of 20 observations were created to simulate an intrarater or inter-rater paradigm, based on 20 participants with two observations per participant. Situations were designed to demonstrate good agreement, systematic bias, or substantial random measurement error. In the situation demonstrating good agreement, all three techniques supported the conclusion that the data were reliable. In the situation demonstrating systematic bias, the ICC and t test suggested the data were not reliable, whereas the Pearson correlation suggested high reliability despite the systematic discrepancy. In the situation representing substantial random measurement error where low reliability was expected, the ICC and Pearson coefficient accurately illustrated this. The t test suggested the data were reliable. The ICC is the preferred technique to measure reliability. Although there are some limitations associated with the use of this technique, they can be overcome.

Organizational commitment and perceived relatedness as correlates of the intention to continue officiating in track and field

The objectives of the present study were to explore three components of organizational commitment (affective [AC], normative [NC] and continuance [CC] commitment; Allen & Meyer, 1991), perceived relatedness (Oeci & Ryan, 1985; 2002), and behavioural intention (Ajzen, 2002) within the context of volunteer track and field officiating. The objectives were examined in a 2-phase study. Ouring phase 1, experts (N = 10) with domain familiarity assessed the item content relevance and representation of modified organizational commitment (OC; Meyer, Allen & Smith, 1993) and perceived relatedness (La Guardia, Oeci, Ryan & Couchman, 2000) items. Fourteen of 26 (p < .05) items were relevant (Aiken's coefficient V) and NC (M = 3.88, SO = .64), CC (M = 3.63, SD = .52), and relatedness (M = 4.00, SD = .93) items had mean item content-representation ratings of either "good" or "very good" while AC (M = 2.50, SD = 0.58) was rated "fair". Participants in phase 2 (N = 80) responded to items measuring demographic variables, perceptions of OC to Athletics Canada, perceived relatedness to other track and field officials, and a measure of intention (yiu, Au & Tang, 2001) to continue officiating. Internal consistency reliability estimates (Cronbach's (1951) coefficient alpha) were as follows: (a) AC = .78, (b) CC = .85, (c) NC = .80 (d) perceived relatedness = .70 and, (e) intention = .92 in the present sample. Results suggest that the track and field officials felt only minimally committed to Athletics Canada (AC M = 3.90, SD = 1.23; NC M = 2.47, SD = 1.25; CC M = 3.32; SD = 1.34) and that their relationships with other track and field officials were strongly endorsed (M = 5.86, SD = 0.74). Bivariate correlations (Pearson r) indicated that perceived relatedness to other track and field officials demonstrated the strongest relationship with intention to continue officiating (r = .346, p < .05), while dimensions of OC were not significantly related to intention (all p's > .05). Together perceived relatedness (j3 = .339, p = .004), affective commitment (j3 = -.1 53, p = .308), normative commitment (j3 = -.024, p = .864) and continuance commitment (j3 = .186, P = .287) contribute to the prediction of intention to continued officiating (K = .139). These relationships remained unaffected by the inclusion of demographic (j3age = -.02; P years with Athletics Canada = -.13; bothp's > .05) or alternative commitment (j3sport = -.19; P role = .15; Pathletes = .20; all p' s > .05) considerations. Three open-ended questions elicited qualitative responses regarding participants' reasons for officiating. Responses reflecting initial reasons for officiating formed these higher order themes: convenience, helping reasons, extension of role, and intrinsic reasons. Responses reflecting reasons for continuing to officiate formed these higher order themes: track and field, to help, and personal benefits. Responses reflecting changes that would influence continued involvement were: political, organizational/structural, and personal. These results corroborate the findings of previous investigations which state that the reasons underpinning volunteer motivations change over time (Cuskelly et al., 2002). Overall, the results of this study suggest that track and field officials feel minimal commitment to the organization of Athletics Canada but a stronger bond with their fellow officials. Moreover, the degree to which track and field officials feel meaningfully connected to one another appears to exert a positive influence on their intentions to continue officiating. As such, it is suggested that in order to promote continued involvement, Athletics Canada increases its focus on fostering environments promoting positive interactions among officials.