Post-processing of sequential indicator simulation realizations for modeling geologic bodies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stochastic modelling of the reservoir lithological and petrophysical attributes. A case study of the Middle East carbonate reservoir

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Forecasting coal resources and reserves in heterogeneous coal zones using 3D facies models (As Pontes Basin, NW Spain)

Forecasting coal resources and reserves is critical for coal mine development. Thickness maps are commonly used for assessing coal resources and reserves; however they are limited for capturing coal splitting effects in thick and heterogeneous coal zones. As an alternative, three-dimensional geostatistical methods are used to populate facies distributionwithin a densely drilled heterogeneous coal zone in the As Pontes Basin (NWSpain). Coal distribution in this zone is mainly characterized by coal-dominated areas in the central parts of the basin interfingering with terrigenous-dominated alluvial fan zones at the margins. The three-dimensional models obtained are applied to forecast coal resources and reserves. Predictions using subsets of the entire dataset are also generated to understand the performance of methods under limited data constraints. Three-dimensional facies interpolation methods tend to overestimate coal resources and reserves due to interpolation smoothing. Facies simulation methods yield similar resource predictions than conventional thickness map approximations. Reserves predicted by facies simulation methods are mainly influenced by: a) the specific coal proportion threshold used to determine if a block can be recovered or not, and b) the capability of the modelling strategy to reproduce areal trends in coal proportions and splitting between coal-dominated and terrigenousdominated areas of the basin. Reserves predictions differ between the simulation methods, even with dense conditioning datasets. Simulation methods can be ranked according to the correlation of their outputs with predictions from the directly interpolated coal proportion maps: a) with low-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with trends yields the best correlation, b) with high-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with post-processing yields the best correlation, because the areal trends are provided implicitly by the dense conditioning data.

Modelagem da incerteza da distribuição espacial de fósforo e potássio do solo sob a cultura canavieira

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

Modelagem e quantificação da incerteza espacial do potássio disponível no solo por simulações estocásticas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Successive nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions

Spatial characterization of non-Gaussian attributes in earth sciences and engineering commonly requires the estimation of their conditional distribution. The indicator and probability kriging approaches of current nonparametric geostatistics provide approximations for estimating conditional distributions. They do not, however, provide results similar to those in the cumbersome implementation of simultaneous cokriging of indicators. This paper presents a new formulation termed successive cokriging of indicators that avoids the classic simultaneous solution and related computational problems, while obtaining equivalent results to the impractical simultaneous solution of cokriging of indicators. A successive minimization of the estimation variance of probability estimates is performed, as additional data are successively included into the estimation process. In addition, the approach leads to an efficient nonparametric simulation algorithm for non-Gaussian random functions based on residual probabilities.

Evaluation of an indicator for water yield in a watershed of Alto Rio Grande Region, State of Minas Gerais , Brazil

The Brazilian Law stipulates that water is a limited natural resource doted of economic value, thus it is necessary to develop mechanisms for its adequate management. Actions that encourage the farmers to apply soil conservation practices with the purpose of increase water yield from springs and to promote improvement of its quality, reducing production of sediment transportation, is being encouraged by governments, even with financial compensation for owners. From these assertions, this study aims to quantify the benefits of the conservation actions of the management units and to characterize a Water Yield Indicator (WYI) to support sustainable actions in the watershed of Alto Rio Grande region, in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). To assess the impact of actions it were identified four scenarios of land use and occupation of the watershed from Marcela stream which is located in Alto Rio Grande Region. After analyzing the results, it can be stated that the scenarios simulation has demonstrated important changes in water yield and that the definition of the Water Yield Index from the junction of the erosion potential with the water storage potential, has proved effective, as it integrate quantity and quality of water.

A neural approach for determination of global energetic efficiency indicator in groundwater wells

In most of the cases, the systems of water distribution from groundwater wells use electrical submersible pumps. All electrical energy is applied to the pumps; however, other components (pipes, valves, etc.) of these systems are also responsible by the higher or lower consumption of electric energy. The supervisors and operators of the systems should thus have knowledge of the global energetic behavior of the process in order to administrate it properly. This work suggests a 'Global Energetic Efficiency Indicator' for groundwater wells by using mathematical equations and neural networks. Simulation results will be presented in order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Measurement, Simulation, and Analysis of the Mechanical Response of Railroad Track

Increased railroad traffic volumes, speeds, and axle loads have created a need to better measure track quality. Previous research has indicated that the vertical track deflection provides a meaningful indicator of track integrity. The measured deflection can be related to the bending stresses in the rail as well as characterize the mechanical response of the track. This investigation summarizes the simulation, analysis and development of a measurement system at the University of Nebraska (UNL) to measure vertical track deflection in real-time from a car moving at revenue speeds. The UNL system operates continuously over long distances and in revenue service. Using a camera and two line lasers, the system establishes three points of the rail shape beneath the loaded wheels and over a distance of 10 ft. The resulting rail shape can then be related to the actual bending stress in the rail and estimate the track support through beam theory. Finite element simulations are used to characterize the track response as related to the UNL measurement system. The results of field tests using bondable resistance strain gages illustrate the system’s capability of approximating the actual rail bending stresses under load.

Characterization of suramin binding sites on the human group IIA secreted phospholipase A(2) by site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics simulation

Suramin is a polysulphonated naphthylurea with inhibitory activity against the human secreted group IIA phospholipase A(2) (hsPLA2GIIA), and we have investigated suramin binding to recombinant hsPLA2GIIA using site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The changes in suramin binding affinity of 13 cationic residue mutants of the hsPLA2GIIA was strongly correlated with alterations in the inhibition of membrane damaging activity of the protein. Suramin binding to hsPLA2GIIA was also studied by MD simulations, which demonstrated that altered intermolecular potential energy of the suramin/mutant complexes was a reliable indicator of affinity change. Although residues in the C-terminal region play a major role in the stabilization of the hsPLA2GIIA/suramin complex, attractive and repulsive hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions with residues throughout the protein together with the adoption of a bent suramin conformation, all contribute to the stability of the complex. Analysis of the h5PLA2GIIA/suramin interactions allows the prediction of the properties of suramin analogues with improved binding and higher affinities which may be candidates for novel phospholipase A(2) inhibitors. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation options under climate change for multifunctional agriculture: a simulation study for western Switzerland

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the ability of agroecosystems to supply these functions. Hence, it is necessary to identify relevant drivers (e.g., cropping practices, local conditions) and their interactions, and how they affect agricultural functions in a changing climate. The goal of this study was to use a modeling framework to analyze the sensitivity of indicators of three important agricultural functions, namely crop yield (food and fiber production function), soil erosion (soil conservation function), and nutrient leaching (clean water provision function), to a wide range of agricultural practices for current and future climate conditions. In a two-step approach, cropping practices that explain high proportions of variance of the different indicators were first identified by an analysis of variance-based sensitivity analysis. Then, most suitable combinations of practices to achieve best performance with respect to each indicator were extracted, and trade-offs were analyzed. The procedure was applied to a region in western Switzerland, considering two different soil types to test the importance of local environmental constraints. Results show that the sensitivity of crop yield and soil erosion due to management is high, while nutrient leaching mostly depends on soil type. We found that the influence of most agricultural practices does not change significantly with CC; only irrigation becomes more relevant as a consequence of decreasing summer rainfall. Trade-offs were identified when focusing on best performances of each indicator separately, and these were amplified under CC. For adaptation to CC in the selected study region, conservation soil management and the use of cropped grasslands appear to be the most suitable options to avoid trade-offs.

Sistema de simulación de escenarios de ciclos avanzados de combustible nuclear en transición = Simulation system for advanced fuel cycle transition scenarios

El estudio de los ciclos del combustible nuclear requieren de herramientas computacionales o "códigos" versátiles para dar respuestas al problema multicriterio de evaluar los actuales ciclos o las capacidades de las diferentes estrategias y escenarios con potencial de desarrollo en a nivel nacional, regional o mundial. Por otra parte, la introducción de nuevas tecnologías para reactores y procesos industriales hace que los códigos existentes requieran nuevas capacidades para evaluar la transición del estado actual del ciclo del combustible hacia otros más avanzados y sostenibles. Brevemente, esta tesis se centra en dar respuesta a las principales preguntas, en términos económicos y de recursos, al análisis de escenarios de ciclos de combustible, en particular, para el análisis de los diferentes escenarios del ciclo del combustible de relativa importancia para España y Europa. Para alcanzar este objetivo ha sido necesaria la actualización y el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades del código TR_EVOL (Transition Evolution code). Este trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Programa de Innovación Nuclear del CIEMAT desde el año 2010. Esta tesis se divide en 6 capítulos. El primer capítulo ofrece una visión general del ciclo de combustible nuclear, sus principales etapas y los diferentes tipos utilizados en la actualidad o en desarrollo para el futuro. Además, se describen las fuentes de material nuclear que podrían ser utilizadas como combustible (uranio y otros). También se puntualizan brevemente una serie de herramientas desarrolladas para el estudio de estos ciclos de combustible nuclear. El capítulo 2 está dirigido a dar una idea básica acerca de los costes involucrados en la generación de electricidad mediante energía nuclear. Aquí se presentan una clasificación de estos costos y sus estimaciones, obtenidas en la bibliografía, y que han sido evaluadas y utilizadas en esta tesis. Se ha incluido también una breve descripción del principal indicador económico utilizado en esta tesis, el “coste nivelado de la electricidad”. El capítulo 3 se centra en la descripción del código de simulación desarrollado para el estudio del ciclo del combustible nuclear, TR_EVOL, que ha sido diseñado para evaluar diferentes opciones de ciclos de combustibles. En particular, pueden ser evaluados las diversos reactores con, posiblemente, diferentes tipos de combustibles y sus instalaciones del ciclo asociadas. El módulo de evaluaciones económica de TR_EVOL ofrece el coste nivelado de la electricidad haciendo uso de las cuatro fuentes principales de información económica y de la salida del balance de masas obtenido de la simulación del ciclo en TR_EVOL. Por otra parte, la estimación de las incertidumbres en los costes también puede ser efectuada por el código. Se ha efectuado un proceso de comprobación cruzada de las funcionalidades del código y se descrine en el Capítulo 4. El proceso se ha aplicado en cuatro etapas de acuerdo con las características más importantes de TR_EVOL, balance de masas, composición isotópica y análisis económico. Así, la primera etapa ha consistido en el balance masas del ciclo de combustible nuclear actual de España. La segunda etapa se ha centrado en la comprobación de la composición isotópica del flujo de masas mediante el la simulación del ciclo del combustible definido en el proyecto CP-ESFR UE. Las dos últimas etapas han tenido como objetivo validar el módulo económico. De este modo, en la tercera etapa han sido evaluados los tres principales costes (financieros, operación y mantenimiento y de combustible) y comparados con los obtenidos por el proyecto ARCAS, omitiendo los costes del fin del ciclo o Back-end, los que han sido evaluado solo en la cuarta etapa, haciendo uso de costes unitarios y parámetros obtenidos a partir de la bibliografía. En el capítulo 5 se analizan dos grupos de opciones del ciclo del combustible nuclear de relevante importancia, en términos económicos y de recursos, para España y Europa. Para el caso español, se han simulado dos grupos de escenarios del ciclo del combustible, incluyendo estrategias de reproceso y extensión de vida de los reactores. Este análisis se ha centrado en explorar las ventajas y desventajas de reprocesado de combustible irradiado en un país con una “relativa” pequeña cantidad de reactores nucleares. Para el grupo de Europa se han tratado cuatro escenarios, incluyendo opciones de transmutación. Los escenarios incluyen los reactores actuales utilizando la tecnología reactor de agua ligera y ciclo abierto, un reemplazo total de los reactores actuales con reactores rápidos que queman combustible U-Pu MOX y dos escenarios del ciclo del combustible con transmutación de actínidos minoritarios en una parte de los reactores rápidos o en sistemas impulsados por aceleradores dedicados a transmutación. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 da las principales conclusiones obtenidas de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros previstos en el campo del análisis de ciclos de combustible nuclear. ABSTRACT The study of the nuclear fuel cycle requires versatile computational tools or “codes” to provide answers to the multicriteria problem of assessing current nuclear fuel cycles or the capabilities of different strategies and scenarios with potential development in a country, region or at world level. Moreover, the introduction of new technologies for reactors and industrial processes makes the existing codes to require new capabilities to assess the transition from current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. Briefly, this thesis is focused in providing answers to the main questions about resources and economics in fuel cycle scenario analyses, in particular for the analysis of different fuel cycle scenarios with relative importance for Spain and Europe. The upgrade and development of new capabilities of the TR_EVOL code (Transition Evolution code) has been necessary to achieve this goal. This work has been developed in the Nuclear Innovation Program at CIEMAT since year 2010. This thesis is divided in 6 chapters. The first one gives an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle, its main stages and types currently used or in development for the future. Besides the sources of nuclear material that could be used as fuel (uranium and others) are also viewed here. A number of tools developed for the study of these nuclear fuel cycles are also briefly described in this chapter. Chapter 2 is aimed to give a basic idea about the cost involved in the electricity generation by means of the nuclear energy. The main classification of these costs and their estimations given by bibliography, which have been evaluated in this thesis, are presented. A brief description of the Levelized Cost of Electricity, the principal economic indicator used in this thesis, has been also included. Chapter 3 is focused on the description of the simulation tool TR_EVOL developed for the study of the nuclear fuel cycle. TR_EVOL has been designed to evaluate different options for the fuel cycle scenario. In particular, diverse nuclear power plants, having possibly different types of fuels and the associated fuel cycle facilities can be assessed. The TR_EVOL module for economic assessments provides the Levelized Cost of Electricity making use of the TR_EVOL mass balance output and four main sources of economic information. Furthermore, uncertainties assessment can be also carried out by the code. A cross checking process of the performance of the code has been accomplished and it is shown in Chapter 4. The process has been applied in four stages according to the most important features of TR_EVOL. Thus, the first stage has involved the mass balance of the current Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in the isotopic composition of the mass flow using the fuel cycle defined in the EU project CP-ESFR. The last two stages have been aimed to validate the economic module. In the third stage, the main three generation costs (financial cost, O&M and fuel cost) have been assessed and compared to those obtained by ARCAS project, omitting the back-end costs. This last cost has been evaluated alone in the fourth stage, making use of some unit cost and parameters obtained from the bibliography. In Chapter 5 two groups of nuclear fuel cycle options with relevant importance for Spain and Europe are analyzed in economic and resources terms. For the Spanish case, two groups of fuel cycle scenarios have been simulated including reprocessing strategies and life extension of the current reactor fleet. This analysis has been focused on exploring the advantages and disadvantages of spent fuel reprocessing in a country with relatively small amount of nuclear power plants. For the European group, four fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor technology and open fuel cycle, a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycle scenarios with Minor Actinide transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems. Finally, Chapter 6 gives the main conclusions obtained from this thesis and the future work foreseen in the field of nuclear fuel cycle analysis.

Developing performance measures of mangrove wetlands using simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and community dynamics

The goal of mangrove restoration projects should be to improve community structure and ecosystem function of degraded coastal landscapes. This requires the ability to forecast how mangrove structure and function will respond to prescribed changes in site conditions including hydrology, topography, and geophysical energies. There are global, regional, and local factors that can explain gradients of regulators (e.g., salinity, sulfides), resources (nutrients, light, water), and hydroperiod (frequency, duration of flooding) that collectively account for stressors that result in diverse patterns of mangrove properties across a variety of environmental settings. Simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics have been developed to forecast patterns in mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades. These models provide insight to mangrove response to specific restoration alternatives, testing causal mechanisms of system degradation. We propose that these models can also assist in selecting performance measures for monitoring programs that evaluate project effectiveness. This selection process in turn improves model development and calibration for forecasting mangrove response to restoration alternatives. Hydrologic performance measures include soil regulators, particularly soil salinity, surface topography of mangrove landscape, and hydroperiod, including both the frequency and duration of flooding. Estuarine performance measures should include salinity of the bay, tidal amplitude, and conditions of fresh water discharge (included in the salinity value). The most important performance measures from the mangrove biogeochemistry model should include soil resources (bulk density, total nitrogen, and phosphorus) and soil accretion. Mangrove ecology performance measures should include forest dimension analysis (transects and/or plots), sapling recruitment, leaf area index, and faunal relationships. Estuarine ecology performance measures should include the habitat function of mangroves, which can be evaluated with growth rate of key species, habitat suitability analysis, isotope abundance of indicator species, and bird census. The list of performance measures can be modified according to the model output that is used to define the scientific goals during the restoration planning process that reflect specific goals of the project.

Mesh Adaption for Tracking Vortex Structures in OVERTURNS Simulation of the S-76 Rotor in Hover

The constant need to improve helicopter performance requires the optimization of existing and future rotor designs. A crucial indicator of rotor capability is hover performance, which depends on the near-body flow as well as the structure and strength of the tip vortices formed at the trailing edge of the blades. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers must balance computational expenses with preservation of the flow, and to limit computational expenses the mesh is often coarsened in the outer regions of the computational domain. This can lead to degradation of the vortex structures which compose the rotor wake. The current work conducts three-dimensional simulations using OVERTURNS, a three-dimensional structured grid solver that models the flow field using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The S-76 rotor in hover was chosen as the test case for evaluating the OVERTURNS solver, focusing on methods to better preserve the rotor wake. Using the hover condition, various computational domains, spatial schemes, and boundary conditions were tested. Furthermore, a mesh adaption routine was implemented, allowing for the increased refinement of the mesh in areas of turbulent flow without the need to add points to the mesh. The adapted mesh was employed to conduct a sweep of collective pitch angles, comparing the resolved wake and integrated forces to existing computational and experimental results. The integrated thrust values saw very close agreement across all tested pitch angles, while the power was slightly over predicted, resulting in under prediction of the Figure of Merit. Meanwhile, the tip vortices have been preserved for multiple blade passages, indicating an improvement in vortex preservation when compared with previous work. Finally, further results from a single collective pitch case were presented to provide a more complete picture of the solver results.