mfx: Marginal Effects, Odds Ratios and Incidence Rate Ratios for GLMs

Estimates probit, logit, Poisson, negative binomial, and beta regression models, returning their marginal effects, odds ratios, or incidence rate ratios as an output.

Incidence Rate of Kaposi Sarcoma in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Prospective Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS We included patient data of 6 ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. FINDINGS We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. Five hundred and sixty-four incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). The overall KS incidence rate was 164/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI): 151 to 178]. The incidence rate was highest 30-90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI: 342 to 497) and declined thereafter [86/100,000 pys (95% CI: 71 to 105), >2 years after ART initiation]. Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.61], low current CD4 counts (≥500 versus <50 cells/μL, adjusted HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.55), and age (5-9 years versus 30-39 years, adjusted HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. INTERPRETATION Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.

Sporadic childhood Burkitt lymphoma incidence in the United States during 1992-2005

Background The risk factors and co-factors for sporadic childhood BL are unknown. We investigated demographic and age-specific characteristics of childhood BL (0–14 years) in the U.S. Procedure BL age-standardized incidence rates (2000 U.S. standard population), were calculated using data obtained from 12 registries in the NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for cases diagnosed from 1992 through 2005. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by gender, age-group, race, ethnicity, calendar-year period, and registry. Results Of 296 cases identified, 56% were diagnosed in lymph nodes, 21% in abdominal organs, not including retroperitoneal lymph nodes, 14% were Burkitt cell leukemia, and 9% on face/head structures. The male-to-female case ratio was highest for facial/head tumors (25:1) and lowest for Burkitt cell leukemia (1.6:1). BL incidence rate was 2.5 (95% CI 2.3–2.8) cases per million person-years and was higher among boys than girls (3.9 vs. 1.1, p<0.001) and higher among Whites and Asians/Pacific Islanders than among Blacks (2.8 and 2.9 vs.1.2, respectively, p<0.001). By ethnicity, BL incidence was higher among non-Hispanic Whites than Hispanic Whites (3.2 vs. 2.0, p=0.002). Age-specific incidence rate for BL peaked by age 3–5 years (3.4 cases per million), then stabilized or declined with increasing age, but it did not vary with calendar-year or registry area. Conclusions Our results indicate that early childhood exposures, male-sex, and White race may be risk factors for sporadic childhood BL in the United States. Keywords: epidemiology, pediatric cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, HIV/AIDS

An analysis on trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与 死亡趋势分析]

Purpose To investigate the trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu county, and to provide scientific evidence for the government to design and adjust polices on cancer prevention and control. [Methods] The cancer registration data of new cases from 1995 to 2004 and death cases from 1998 to 2004 were used to analyse the incidence and mortality and the trend in Linqu county. Results Cancer general incidence significantly increased from 1995 to 2004 (P<0.05). The increasing speed incidence in male was faster than that in female. The incidence of lung cancer, colon/rectum cancer and pancreas cancer increased significantly (P<0.05), especially of lung cancer with an acceleration incidence rate of 2.12/100,000 peryear in average. The general mortality increased gradually from 1998 to 2004 with no significance (P>0.05). Both incidence and mortality in population aged 80 or over increased significantly (P<0.05). Conclusion The cancer incidence is rising during recent 10 years , and the prevention and control for lung cancer are getting increasingly important. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势,为政府制订和调整防治对策提供科学依据. [方法] 利用临朐县1995～2004年恶性肿瘤发病登记资料和1998～2004年的死亡登记资料,计算各种癌症发病率和死亡率,并做趋势分析. [结果] 1995～2004年临朐县恶性肿瘤总发病率呈明显上升趋势(P＜0.05),男性发病率上升速度高于女性.肺癌、肠癌、胰腺癌发病率上升显著(P＜0.05),以肺癌最为迅速(年均升高2.12/10万).1998～2004年恶性肿瘤总死亡率略有上升,但无显著性(P＞0.05);80岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势. [结论] 临朐县恶性肿瘤发病率近10年来呈现上升趋势,肺癌防治地位日益突出.

Incidence and fatality of serious suicide attempts in a predominantly rural population in Shandong, China : a public health surveillance study

Objectives To estimate the incidence of serious suicide attempts (SSAs, defined as suicide attempts resulting in either death or hospitalisation) and to examine factors associated with fatality among these attempters. Design A surveillance study of incidence and mortality. Linked data from two public health surveillance systems were analysed. Setting Three selected counties in Shandong, China. Participants All residents in the three selected counties. Outcome measures Incidence rate ( per 100 000 person-years) and case fatality rate (%). Methods Records of suicide deaths and hospitalisations that occurred among residents in selected counties during 2009–2011 (5 623 323 person-years) were extracted from electronic databases of the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Injury Surveillance System (ISS) and were linked by name, sex, residence and time of suicide attempt. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to examine the factors associated with a higher or lower fatality rate. Results The incidence of SSAs was estimated to be 46 (95% CI 44 to 48) per 100 000 person-years, which was 1.5 times higher in rural versus urban areas, slightly higher among females, and increased with age. Among all SSAs, 51% were hospitalised and survived, 9% were hospitalised but later died and 40% died with no hospitalisation. Most suicide deaths (81%) were not hospitalised and most hospitalised SSAs (85%) survived. The fatality rate was 49% overall, but was significantly higher among attempters living in rural areas, who were male, older, with lower education or with a farming occupation. With regard to the method of suicide, fatality was lowest for non-pesticide poisons (7%) and highest for hanging (97%). Conclusions The incidence of serious suicide attempts is substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas of China. The risk of death is influenced by the attempter’s sex, age, education level, occupation, method used and season of year.

Saudi Arabian adult intensive care unit pressure ulcer incidence and risk factors: A prospective cohort study

The purpose of this study was to identify pressure ulcer (PU) incidence and risk factors that are associated with PU development in patients in two adult intensive care units (ICU) in Saudi Arabia. A prospective cohort study design was used. A total of 84 participants were screened second daily basis until discharge or death, over a consecutive 30-day period, out of which 33 participants with new PUs were identified giving a cumulative hospital-acquired PU incidence of 39·3% (33/84 participants). The incidence of medical devices-related PUs was 8·3% (7/84). Age, length of stay in the ICU, history of cardiovascular disease and kidney disease, infrequent repositioning, time of operation, emergency admission, mechanical ventilation and lower Braden Scale scores independently predicted the development of a PU. According to binary logistic regression analyses, age, longer stay in ICU and infrequent repositioning were significant predictors of all stages of PUs, while the length of stay in the ICU and infrequent repositioning were associated with the development of stages II-IV PUs. In conclusion, PU incidence rate was higher than that reported in other international studies. This indicates that urgent attention is required for PU prevention strategies in this setting.

Systematic literature review of incidence rates of low-speed vehicle run-over incidents in children

Aim: To systematically review the literature investigating the incidence of fatal and or nonfatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) incidents in children aged 0–15 years. Methods: The following databases were searched using specific search terms, from their date of conception up to June 2011: Cochrane Library, Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMI, Sociological Abstracts, ERIC, PsycArticles, PsycInfo, Urban Studies and Planning; Australian Criminology Database; Dissertations and Thesis; Academic Research Library; Social Services Abstracts; Family and Society; Scopus; and Web of Science. A total of 128 articles were identified in the databases (33 found by hand searching). The title and abstract of these were read, and 102 were removed because they were not primary research articles relating to LSVRO-type injuries. Twenty-six articles were assessed against the inclusion (reporting population level incidence rates) and exclusion criteria, 19 of which were excluded, leaving a total of five articles for inclusion in the review. Findings: Five studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria. The incidence rate in nonfatal LSVRO events varied in the range of 7.09 to 14.79 per 100,000 and from 0.63 to 3.2 per 100,000 in fatal events. Discussion: Using International Classification of Diseases codes for classifying fatal or nonfatal LSVRO incidents is problematic as there is no specific code for LSVRO. The current body of research is void of a comprehensive secular population data analysis. Only with an improved spectrum of incidence rates will appropriate evaluation of this problem be possible, and this will inform nursing prevention interventions. The effect of LSVRO incidents is clearly understudied. More research is required to address incidence rates in relation to culture, environment, risk factors, car design, and injury characteristics. Conclusions: Thevlack of nursing research or policy around this area of injury, most often to children, indicates a field of inquiry and policy development that needs attention.

Rapid increase in scrub typhus incidence in Mainland China, 2006-2014

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne disease, which has recently reemerged in China. In this study, we describe the distribution and incidence of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2014 and quantify differences in scrub typhus cases with respect to sex, age, and occupation. The results of our study indicate that the annual incidence of scrub typhus has increased during the study period. The number of cases peaked in 2014, which was 12.8 times greater than the number of cases reported in 2006. Most (77.97%) of the cases were reported in five provinces (Guangdong, Yunnan, Anhui, Fujian, and Shandong). Our study also demonstrates that the incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females compared to males (P < 0.001) and was highest in the 60–69 year age group, and that farmers had a higher incidence rate than non farmers (P < 0.001). Different seasonal trends were identified in the number of reported cases between the northern and southern provinces of China. These findings not only demonstrate that China has experienced a large increase in scrub typhus incidence, but also document an expansion in the geographic distribution throughout the country.

Higher incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus in remote areas: a UK regional small-area analysis

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.

Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian
hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.

Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p<0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).

Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.

Worldwide childhood type 1 diabetes incidence - what can we learn from epidemiology?

Type 1 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes in most part of the world, although reliable data are still unavailable in several countries. Wide variations exist between the incidence rates of different populations, incidence is lowest in China and Venezuela (0.1 per 100 000 per year) and highest in Finland and Sardinia (37 per 100 000 per year). In most populations girls and boys are equally affected. In general, the incidence increases with age, the incidence peak is at puberty. After the pubertal years, the incidence rate significantly drops in young women, but remains relatively high in young adult males up to the age 29-35 years. Prospective national and large international registries (DIAMOND and EURODIAB) demonstrated an increasing trend in incidence in most regions of the world over the last few decades and increases seem to be the highest in the youngest age group. Analytical epidemiological studies have identified environmental risk factors operating early in life which might have contributed to the increasing trend in incidence. These include enteroviral infections in pregnant women, older maternal age (39-42 years), preeclampsia, cesarean section delivery, increased birthweight, early introduction of cow's milk proteins and an increased rate of postnatal growth (weight and height). Optimal vitamin D supplementation during early life has been shown to be protective. Some of these environmental risk factors such as viruses may initiate autoimmunity toward the beta cell, other exposures may put on overload on the already affected beta cell and thus accelerate the disease process.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years. Oral presentation at the 47th EASD Annual Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal.

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

Surveillance of Non melanoma Skin Cancer Incidence Rates in Kidney Transplant Recipients in Ireland

Background: The incidence of nonmelanomatous skin cancer (NMSC) is substantially higher among renal transplant recipients (RTRs) than in the general population. With a growing RTR population, a robust method for monitoring skin cancer rates in this population is required.
Methods: A modeling approach was used to estimate the trends in NMSC rates that adjusted for changes in the RTR population (sex and age), calendar time, the duration of posttransplant follow-up, and background population NMSC incidence rates. RTR databases in both Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI) were linked to their respective cancer registries for diagnosis of NMSC, mainly squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC).
Results: RTRs in the ROI had three times the incidence (P<0.001) of NMSC compared with NI. There was a decline (P<0.001) in NMSC 10-year cumulative incidence rate in RTRs over the period 1994–2009, which was driven by reductions in both SCC and BCC incidence rates. Nevertheless, there was an increase in the incidence of NMSC with time since transplantation. The observed graft survival was higher in ROI than NI (P<0.05) from 1994–2004. The overall patient survival of RTRs was similar in NI and ROI.
Conclusion: Appropriate modeling of incidence trends in NMSC among RTRs is a valuable surveillance exercise for assessing the impact of change in clinical practices over time on the incidence rates of skin cancer in RTRs. It can form the basis of further research into unexplained regional variations in NMSC incidence.