Tourism as a contributor to development in Sri Lanka: An overview and a case study

General background is provided on the potential of tourism growth to contribute to economic development, paying particular attention to the experience of Sri Lanka. An overview of trends in inbound tourism to Sri Lanka is presented with particular consideration being given to its number of inbound tourist arrivals. Sri Lanka’s comparative position in international tourism markets, the composition of its tourist arrivals by area of origin, the extent of foreign earnings by the Sri Lankan tourism industry and variations in the amount of these earnings, and the extent of employment generation by this industry are examined. Regional aspects of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka are given special consideration, and this is followed by a report on the regional economic impact of tourism of Pinnawala Elephant Orphanage. This major tourist attraction near the edge of the Western Highlands of Sri Lanka is shown to make a significant contribution to economic decentralisation. A general discussion follows of tourism development in the Sri Lankan context. The main factors that have hindered tourism growth in Sri Lanka and its decentralisation are considered. Indications are that major impediment posed by civil disturbance and terrorism is at an end in Sri Lanka.

Regional flows of domestic tourism in Spain = Flujos regionales del turismo doméstico en España

The paper analyses the regional flows of domestic tourism that took place in Spain in year 2000, contributing to the state of knowledge on tourism required by authorities and private firms when faced with decision making, for example, for regional infrastructure planning. Although tourism is one of the main income-generating economic activities in Spain, domestic tourism has received little attention in the literature compared to inbound tourism. The paper uses among others, gravitational model tools and concentration indices, to analyse regional concentration of both domestic demand and supply; tourism flows among regions, and the causes that may explain the observed flows and attractiveness between regions. Among the most remarkable results are the high regional concentration of demand and supply, and the role of population and regional income as explanatory variables. Also remarkable are the attractiveness of own region and neighbour ones, and that domestic tourism may be acting as a regional income redistributing activity

Tourism and Exports as a means of Growth

This study expands existing research by considering both exports and tourism as potential influencing factors for economic growth. While trade of goods has been proven as a means of growth for countries, inbound tourism as non-traditional exports, has been scarcely examined in the literature. Using data for Italy and Spain over the period 1954-2000 and 1964-2000 respectively, both exports of goods and tourism exports are included in the same model. Standard cointegration and Granger causality techniques are applied. The main results reveal the significance of both exports and tourism towards longterm growth with some peculiarities for each country.

Regional flows of domestic tourism in Spain = Flujos regionales del turismo doméstico en España

The paper analyses the regional flows of domestic tourism that took place in Spain in year 2000, contributing to the state of knowledge on tourism required by authorities and private firms when faced with decision making, for example, for regional infrastructure planning. Although tourism is one of the main income-generating economic activities in Spain, domestic tourism has received little attention in the literature compared to inbound tourism. The paper uses among others, gravitational model tools and concentration indices, to analyse regional concentration of both domestic demand and supply; tourism flows among regions, and the causes that may explain the observed flows and attractiveness between regions. Among the most remarkable results are the high regional concentration of demand and supply, and the role of population and regional income as explanatory variables. Also remarkable are the attractiveness of own region and neighbour ones, and that domestic tourism may be acting as a regional income redistributing activity

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing knowledge in tourism planning: How to assess your capability

This paper explores the theme of strategic planning in a State Tourism Organization (STO) from a knowledge management perspective. It highlights the value of knowledge in strategy making and the importance of an organisation's knowledge management agenda in facilitating a strategic planning process. In particular, it considers the capability of an STO to implement knowledge management as the key to a successful strategic planning exercise. In order to develop greater insight into the factors that impact on planning competence, the key aim of this paper is to develop a framework on which the capability of a STO to implement a knowledge-based agenda in strategic planning can be assessed. Research on knowledge management in the field of tourism is limited and there is little practical account of the application of knowledge management principles in tourism planning. Further, there is no apparent tool or instrument that allows for the assessment of an STO's capability to implement knowledge management in planning initiatives. Based on a literature review, a three-point framework of assessment is developed. The three elements of the framework are identified as: 1. Integration of knowledge management objectives with strategic imperatives; 2. A planning approach that balances top-down (outcome focused) with bottom-up (process focused) planning processes; and 3. Organisational capacity, including leadership, people and culture, process, technology, content and continuous improvement. The framework is tested through application to a practical case study - a planning initiative undertaken by a leading tourism STO in Australia. The results demonstrate that the framework is a useful means to evaluate organisational capability in knowledge-led strategic planning exercises and would be of practical value as a point of reference for future knowledge- based strategic planning projects. Copyright © by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

An analysis of students' travel motivations and images of China as a tourist destination

Despite China's rapid growth in inbound tourism, the nature of its Canadian tourist market has been insufficiently studied. In response to this need, the objectives of this study are to identify China's destination image in Canadian students' minds, their possible internal motivations for visiting China as well as examining demographic influences on people's destination image formation. The study reviews image formation process and travel motivation categorisation, discusses their relationship, and implements Baloglu and McCleary's (1999) perceptual and affective image formation model and "push and pull factors" theory as its framework. A self-administered survey was applied to 424 undergraduate students in a Canadian university in early 2004. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to identify perceived images and travel motivation. Summated means were calculated to illustrate the affective attitudes. A series of f-test and ANOVA tests were employed to examine the influence of demographics. An open-ended question format was adopted to analyse other images, motivations and visitation barriers that students may have. Findings demonstrate that cultural and natural attractions are the predominant image which the Canadian students have of China'; some stereotypes and negative images still influence the students' perception; travel service quality is largely unknown; increasing knowledge and seeking excitement and fun are the significant motivators in the likelihood of the Canadian students choosing to visit China; and personal interests may be a factor that significantly influences an individual's destination image and travel motivation. Raising awareness and increasing familiarity through promotion are suggested as methods to create a positive destination image of China.

The impact of inbound demand on price levels in tourism municipalities : Empirical evidence from Catalonia

It is usually argued that tourism exerts negative economic impacts in host jurisdictions through the increase in prices linked to increasing demand for basic services and goods from tourists. This paper surveys 149 products in 45 tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions in Catalonia (which represent a total of 18,500 prices) in order to test empirically several hypotheses related to differences in price levels in tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions. The main results show that prices in tourism jurisdictions are not significantly higher than those in non-tourism ones. The analysis suggests that tourists are likely to pay higher prices than natives for some products

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.

Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change.

Health tourism trends in the United Kingdom: Are they net exporters of health services?

The study investigates the inbound and outbound health tourism in the United Kingdom (UK) to determine if the UK can be considered as a net exporter of health services. Although there is an increasing number of studies analysing the phenomenon of health tourism, little empirical data are available. This paper contributes to reducing this gap by providing reliable data on health tourism flows for the British case. Using microdata drawn from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for the period 2000-2014, we estimate the flows, number of nights and expenditure of tourists looking for medical treatment who complete international visits of less than 12 months’ duration to and from the UK. In addition, we analyse the main destinations of UK residents (outbound health tourists), and country of origin of overseas residents (inbound health tourists). The results show the upward trend of inbound and outbound patients (163 and 364% during the period 2000-2014, respectively), the strong seasonality in outbound patients (lower during the summer), and the significant increase in the levels of expenditure of overseas residents since 2005. Poland, France, India and Hungry are the chosen countries by UK residents to be treated, whereas Irish Republic, Spain, United Arab Emirates and Greece are the main countries providing inbound health patients. Public policy considerations are given.

Costa del Sol (Spain), analysis of economic and land changes caused by tourism

Malaga is in southern Spain, in a region called Andalusia. Costa del Sol belongs to the province of Malaga, near the Strait of Gibraltar and near the coast of Africa (about 300 km) and about 2,300 km of Sluptz. The Costa del Sol is next to the Mediterranean Sea and near the Atlantic Ocean. Strong and rapid growth of tourism in the countries of southern Europe and in Poland. Spain currently (2015) is the third largest inbound of international tourism (68 mil.) and the second inbound in tourism revenue. Europe is a major world tourist region. The first recipient of tourism in the world is France. Most tourism takes place between developed countries.