The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

Transverse sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV

Measurements of the sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at root s = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. The observable is measured in the plane perpendicular to the beam direction using primary charged tracks with p(T) > 0.5 GeV/c in vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.8. The mean sphericity as a function of the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity (N-ch) is reported for events with different p(T) scales ("soft" and "hard") defined by the transverse momentum of the leading particle. In addition, the mean charged particle transverse momentum versus multiplicity is presented for the different event classes, and the sphericity distributions in bins of multiplicity are presented. The data are compared with calculations of standard Monte Carlo event generators. The transverse sphericity is found to grow with multiplicity at all collision energies, with a steeper rise at low N-ch, whereas the event generators show an opposite tendency. The combined study of the sphericity and the mean p(T) with multiplicity indicates that most of the tested event generators produce events with higher multiplicity by generating more back-to-back jets resulting in decreased sphericity (and isotropy). The PYTHIA6 generator with tune PERUGIA-2011 exhibits a noticeable improvement in describing the data, compared to the other tested generators.

Exchange bias effect in partially oxidized amorphous Fe–Ni–B based metallic glass nanostructures

The magnetic properties of amorphous Fe–Ni–B based metallic glass nanostructures were investigated. The nanostructures underwent a spin-glass transition at temperatures below 100 K and revealed an irreversible temperature following the linear de Almeida–Thouless dependence. When the nanostructures were cooled below 25 K in a magnetic field, they exhibited an exchange bias effect with enhanced coercivity. The observed onset of exchange bias is associated with the coexistence of the spin-glass phase along with the appearance of another spin-glass phase formed by oxidation of the structurally disordered surface layer, displaying a distinct training effect and cooling field dependence. The latter showed a maximum in exchange bias field and coercivity, which is probably due to competing multiple equivalent spin configurations at the boundary between the two spin-glass phases

Can we harness computerised cognitive bias modification to treat anxiety in schizophrenia? A first step highlighting the role of mental imagery

A new wave of computerised therapy is under development which, rather than simulating talking therapies, uses bias modification techniques to target the core psychological process underlying anxiety. Such interventions are aimed at anxiety disorders, and are yet to be adapted for co-morbid anxiety in psychosis. The cognitive bias modification (CBM) paradigm delivers repeated exposure to stimuli in order to train individuals to resolve ambiguous information in a positive, rather than anxiety provoking, manner. The current study is the first to report data from a modified form of CBM which targets co-morbid anxiety within individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. Our version of CBM involved exposure to one hundred vignettes presented over headphones. Participants were instructed to actively simulate the described scenarios via visual imagery. Twenty-one participants completed both a single session of CBM and a single control condition session in counter-balanced order. Within the whole sample, there was no significant improvement on interpretation bias of CBM or state anxiety, relative to the control condition. However, in line with previous research, those participants who engage in higher levels of visual imagery exhibited larger changes in interpretation bias. We discuss the implications for harnessing computerised CBM therapy developments for co-morbid anxiety in schizophrenia.

Interpretation bias in preschool children at risk for anxiety: a prospective study

A story-stem paradigm was used to assess interpretation bias in preschool children. Data were available for 131 children. Interpretation bias, behavioural inhibition (BI) and anxiety were assessed when children were aged between 3 years 2 months and 4 years 5 months. Anxiety was subsequently assessed 12-months, 2-years and 5-years later. A significant difference in interpretation bias was found between participants who met criteria for an anxiety diagnosis at baseline, with clinically anxious participants more likely to complete the ambiguous story-stems in a threat-related way. Threat interpretations significantly predicted anxiety symptoms at 12-month follow-up, after controlling for baseline symptoms, but did not predict anxiety symptoms or diagnoses at either 2-year or 5- year follow-up. There was little evidence for a relationship between BI and interpretation bias. Overall, the pattern of results was not consistent with the hypothesis that interpretation bias plays a role in the development of anxiety. Instead, some evidence for a role in the maintenance of anxiety over relatively short periods of time was found. The use of a story-stem methodology to assess interpretation bias in young children is discussed along with the theoretical and clinical implications of the findings.

Anxiety and attentional bias in preschool-aged children: an eyetracking study

Extensive research has examined attentional bias for threat in anxious adults and school-aged children but it is unclear when this anxiety-related bias is first established. This study uses eyetracking technology to assess attentional bias in a sample of 83 children aged 3 or 4 years. Of these, 37 (19 female) met criteria for an anxiety disorder and 46 (30 female) did not. Gaze was recorded during a free-viewing task with angry-neutral face pairs presented for 1250 ms. There was no indication of between-group differences in threat bias, with both anxious and non-anxious groups showing vigilance for angry faces as well as longer dwell times to angry over neutral faces. Importantly, however, the anxious participants spent significantly less time looking at the faces overall, when compared to the non-anxious group. The results suggest that both anxious and non-anxious preschool-aged children preferentially attend to threat but that anxious children may be more avoidant of faces than non-anxious children.

Attention bias to emotional faces varies by IQ and anxiety in Williams syndrome

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) often experience significant anxiety. A promising approach to anxiety intervention has emerged from cognitive studies of attention bias to threat. To investigate the utility of this intervention in WS, this study examined attention bias to happy and angry faces in individuals with WS (N=46). Results showed a significant difference in attention bias patterns as a function of IQ and anxiety. Individuals with higher IQ or higher anxiety showed a significant bias toward angry, but not happy faces, whereas individuals with lower IQ or lower anxiety showed the opposite pattern. These results suggest that attention bias interventions to modify a threat bias may be most effectively targeted to anxious individuals with WS with relatively high IQ.

Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: a calculation of the bias

Most estimates of the welfare costs of in ation are devised considering only noninterest- bearing assets, ignoring that since the 80s technological innovations and new regulations have increased the liquidity of interest-bearing deposits. We investigate the resulting bias. Suscient and necessary conditions on its sign are presented, along with closed-form expressions for its magnitude. Two examples dealing with bidimensional bilogarithmic money demands show that disregarding interest-bearing monies may lead to a non-negligible overestimation of the welfare costs of in ation. An intuitive explanation is that such assets may partially make up for the decreased demand of noninterest-bearing assets due to higher in ation.

Effects of stereotypic behaviour and chronic mild stress on judgement bias in laboratory mice

Cognitive processes are influenced by underlying affective states, and tests of cognitive bias have recently been developed to assess the valence of affective states in animals. These tests are based on the fact that individuals in a negative affective state interpret ambiguous stimuli more pessimistically than individuals in a more positive state. Using two strains of mice we explored whether unpredictable chronic mild stress (UCMS) can induce a negative judgement bias and whether variation in the expression of stereotypic behaviour is associated with variation in judgement bias. Sixteen female CD-1 and 16 female C57BL/6 mice were trained on a tactile conditional discrimination test with grade of sandpaper as a cue for differential food rewards. Once they had learned the discrimination, half of the mice were subjected to UCMS for three weeks to induce a negative affective state. Although UCMS induced a reduced preference for the higher value reward in the judgement bias test, it did not affect saccharine preference or hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) activity. However, UCMS affected responses to ambiguous (intermediate) cues in the judgement bias test. While control mice showed a graded response to ambiguous cues, UCMS mice of both strains did not discriminate between ambiguous cues and tended to show shorter latencies to the ambiguous cues and the negative reference cue. UCMS also increased bar-mouthing in CD-1, but not in C57BL/6 mice. Furthermore, mice with higher levels of stereotypic behaviour made more optimistic choices in the judgement bias test. However, no such relationship was found for stereotypic bar-mouthing, highlighting the importance of investigating different types of stereotypic behaviour separately.

Evolution of codon usage bias in Drosophila

We first review what is known about patterns of codon usage bias in Drosophila and make the following points: (i) Drosophila genes are as biased or more biased than those in microorganisms. (ii) The level of bias of genes and even the particular pattern of codon bias can remain phylogenetically invariant for very long periods of evolution. (iii) However, some genes, even very tightly linked genes, can change very greatly in codon bias across species. (iv) Generally G and especially C are favored at synonymous sites in biased genes. (v) With the exception of aspartic acid, all amino acids contribute significantly and about equally to the codon usage bias of a gene. (vi) While most individual amino acids that can use G or C at synonymous sites display a preference for C, there are exceptions: valine and leucine, which prefer G. (vii) Finally, smaller genes tend to be more biased than longer genes. We then examine possible causes of these patterns and discount mutation bias on three bases: there is little evidence of regional mutation bias in Drosophila, mutation bias is likely toward A+T (the opposite of codon usage bias), and not all amino acids display the preference for the same nucleotide in the wobble position. Two lines of evidence support a selection hypothesis based on tRNA pools: highly biased genes tend to be highly and/or rapidly expressed, and the preferred codons in highly biased genes optimally bind the most abundant isoaccepting tRNAs. Finally, we examine the effect of bias on DNA evolution and confirm that genes with high codon usage bias have lower rates of synonymous substitution between species than do genes with low codon usage bias. Surprisingly, we find that genes with higher codon usage bias display higher levels of intraspecific synonymous polymorphism. This may be due to opposing effects of recombination.

Hadronic resonance production in d+Au collisions at root S(NN) = 200 GeV measured at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

We present the first measurements of the rho(770)(0),K(*)(892),Delta(1232)(++),Sigma(1385), and Lambda(1520) resonances in d+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV, reconstructed via their hadronic decay channels using the STAR detector (the solenoidal tracker at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider). The masses and widths of these resonances are studied as a function of transverse momentum p(T). We observe that the resonance spectra follow a generalized scaling law with the transverse mass m(T). The < p(T)> of resonances in minimum bias collisions are compared with the < p(T)> of pi,K, and ine>pine>. The rho(0)/pi(-),K(*)/K(-),Delta(++)/p,Sigma(1385)/Lambda, and Lambda(1520)/Lambda ratios in d+Au collisions are compared with the measurements in minimum bias p+p interactions, where we observe that both measurements are comparable. The nuclear modification factors (R(dAu)) of the rho(0),K(*), and Sigma(*) scale with the number of binary collisions (N(bin)) for p(T)> 1.2 GeV/c.

Spin-polarized current and shot noise in the presence of spin flip in a quantum dot via nonequilibrium Green's functions

Using nonequilibrium Green's functions we calculate the spin-polarized current and shot noise in a ferromagnet-quantum-dot-ferromagnet system. Both parallel (P) and antiparallel (AP) magnetic configurations are considered. Coulomb interaction and coherent spin flip (similar to a transverse magnetic field) are taken into account within the dot. We find that the interplay between Coulomb interaction and spin accumulation in the dot can result in a bias-dependent current polarization p. In particular, p can be suppressed in the P alignment and enhanced in the AP case depending on the bias voltage. The coherent spin flip can also result in a switch of the current polarization from the emitter to the collector lead. Interestingly, for a particular set of parameters it is possible to have a polarized current in the collector and an unpolarized current in the emitter lead. We also found a suppression of the Fano factor to values well below 0.5.

Centrality and rapidity dependence of inclusive jet production in sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of the centrality and rapidity dependence of inclusive jet production in sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV proton--lead (p+Pb) collisions and the jet cross-section in s√=2.76 TeV proton--proton collisions are presented. These quantities are measured in datasets corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.8 nb−1 and 4.0 pb−1, respectively, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2013. The p+Pb collision centrality was characterised using the total transverse energy measured in the pseudorapidity interval −4.9<η<−3.2 in the direction of the lead beam. Results are presented for the double-differential per-collision yields as a function of jet rapidity and transverse momentum (pT) for minimum-bias and centrality-selected p+Pb collisions, and are compared to the jet rate from the geometric expectation. The total jet yield in minimum-bias events is slightly enhanced above the expectation in a pT-dependent manner but is consistent with the expectation within uncertainties. The ratios of jet spectra from different centrality selections show a strong modification of jet production at all pT at forward rapidities and for large pT at mid-rapidity, which manifests as a suppression of the jet yield in central events and an enhancement in peripheral events. These effects imply that the factorisation between hard and soft processes is violated at an unexpected level in proton--nucleus collisions. Furthermore, the modifications at forward rapidities are found to be a function of the total jet energy only, implying that the violations may have a simple dependence on the hard parton--parton kinematics.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.